The Red Letters

POOF! Just Like That

2007-03-27T21:26:00.000-04:00

Just as we were getting back into the swing of things, ESPN has decided to discontinue the FLB Correspondents for 2007. Interesting...

Regardless, blogging for me will continue with the new blog for my radio show on TalkRadio 1080 WKJK, The Sports Forum.

Reds coverage won't be the only thing there, but the Reds will be covered extensively. Head on over and make yourself at home at The Sports Forum.

And thanks to all the readers of The Red Letters!

Don't Cry For Homer Bailey

2007-03-23T11:13:00.000-04:00

If Axl, Slash, and the rest will allow me the indulgence…

Sometimes, I get so tense

But I can't speed up the time

I would say there's more than a few Reds fans who feel this way about the arrival of Homer Bailey to the Great American clubhouse after having a starting rotation near the bottom of the National League for years now, but I would offer the following lyrics as a response

And a 1-2-3-4…

But you know, love, there's one more thing to consider

Said woman take it slow

Things will be just fine

You and I'll just use a little patience

2006

A Sarasota: 3-5, 3.31 ERA, 70.2 IP, 79 K, 22 BB, 6 HR
AA Chattanooga: 7-1, 1.59 ERA, 68 IP, 77 K, 28 BB, 1 HR (!)

I agree. Those are alluring statistics. Overwhelming. On top of that, Homer Bailey seems to be a pretty nice guy. I had the opportunity to talk with him for a little bit before spring training, and I was pleased with his attitude and outlook for this season. Marty Brennaman was on my radio show and called him the best pitching prospect he's seen in his over 3 decades of Reds baseball. That's high praise (and even higher expectations). If Marty didn't think that, I think we all know he wouldn't say it.

Still, I was honestly encouraged by the news that Homer Bailey has been reassigned to minor league camp last week. It's a good thing. Really.

I know what you're thinking--wait a minute, the Reds would be better off with Matt Belisle, Kirk Saarloos, or Elizardo Ramirez in the rotation than one of the best prospects in baseball?

The answer is yes. In 2007, yes, clearly, they would. And this has nothing to do with the fact that Bailey was carrying around a 19.64 ERA this spring.

Terry Linhart did some excellent for Baseball HQ (which if you've read this blog over the last almost 3 years, you know I know BBHQ in high regard) that shows the success rates of pitchers in the majors related to their experience in AAA.

And I'm sure most of you know that despite those excellent stats by Bailey in 2006, he's got a grand total of zero innings experience at AAA.

Linhart's numbers looked like this as it relates to pitchers:

Less than 1 year
16% performed well
77% performed poorly
6% endured 2nd half drop off

Full Year (at least)
56% performed well
33% performed poorly
10% endured 2nd half drop off

Rookies are going to hit the wall. It happens. Ask Justin Verlander. But it's amazing that with 1 year of AAA experience the percentage of prospect who performed well shoots from only 16 to better than 50. Even more amazing to me is the insurance against losing confidence by getting knocked around the yard all day, evidenced by chances of failure going from 3 in 4 to only 1 in 3.

When you add in the fact Bailey is 2 years ahead of the normal development curve, it adds up to a clear sum. Bailey will greatly benefit from being and pitching in Louisville in all of 2007. (That, also, has nothing to do with the fact that I live in Louisville--but I will enjoy seeing him up close this season).

As I type this, I know that we'll probably see Homer in GABP at some point this year. I'm always amazed at the "win now" philosophy of just about every sports franchise, regardless of future results (which, hey, it is, first and foremost, a business, so that does make sense).

But I would ask you, Wayne Krivsky, Bob Castellini, and even myself to all just whistle when a back-end rotation guy gives up 8 ER in 4 IP this May (and it will probably happen) and remember Axl--

You and I'll just use a little patience

Said sugar take the time'

Cause the lights are shining bright

You and I've got what it takes to make it....

...yeah, ooh yeah, Need a little patience, yeah

Just a little patience, yeah...

But next year? I really want to see Homer Knockin' On Heaven's Door and this November Rain should be the last he sees from Louisville.

Streeeeeeeeeeeetch!

2007-03-20T11:22:00.000-04:00

Wow, I’m reporting late for Spring Training this year, aren’t I?

The good news is that it’s impossible to be docked any money if no one has your name on the payroll.

Lots of things to cover before the season begins this year, so we’ll adjust our Season Preview down to 2 categories--Hitters and Pitchers. Additionally, we'll deal strictly with impact players because that's who you want to read about and because I'm not sure now is the time to devote a lot of copy room to the ins and outs of Tom Shearn.

Next, we'll start keeping abreast of camp news and I'll tell you why it's a very good thing that Homer Bailey will not be starting the year in Cincinnati and it has absolutely nothing to with his 19.64 spring ERA.

My fingers are already cramping from the over-rested offseason, so I'm gonna have to hit the showers.

13 days and counting…

Home Again, Home Again

2007-03-20T10:50:00.000-04:00

The MLBlogs experiment has ended. We'll be residing here on Blogger once again (it's free--and honestly, more user-friendly to the blogger). Stay tuned--Reds stuff before you know it!

Times a Changin'

2005-12-07T21:25:00.000-05:00

My new Reds blog is over at MLBlogs. This will serve as a 2004-2005 archive for now. We'll see what happens in the future. Head on over and leave a note.

Has Anything Changed?

2005-08-24T05:19:00.000-04:00

It's been a while since we checked in with the Reds--the dogs days of summer and a mysterious late-July-early-August cold combining with other miscellany to keep me away from my keyboard. Has anything changed significantly? Well, the Reds have put together a 23-14 second half thus far, and while they're still in 5th place in the NL Central, they've climbed within 3.5 games of 3rd, as the Brewers and Cubs both have struggled enough to bring them closer to the bottom of the division than the top. The Reds still score a lot of runs (652 leads the NL), but the pitching is as bad and in some cases worse than it was earlier in the year. The numbers look so bad now that only 5 Reds pitchers who have thrown 20+ IP have an ERA under 5.00. There's very little else to say about the hurlers.

Salt on the Wounds

Of course, you didn't actually expect me to stop there, did you? While the Reds lead the NL in runs scored, they also lead the league in runs allowed (692). The interesting thing here is that most readers tell me, "If only we could get some pitching. We score enough runs to win." Well, the facts bear that out is a sad, but true way. If you were to take the Reds runs allowed total and reduce it down to the next highest total in the NL Central (594 for last place Pittsburgh), the baseball Pythagorean theorem put forth by Bill James says that the Reds have scored enough runs to produce a record that would be leading the wild card. Sure, that's all theory and speculation, but that formula does at least show what a huge difference 98 runs makes.

Back to the Bats

There are plenty of bats to target on the roster as the season hits the stretch run. Four Reds are currently slugging at least .540 and the lineup has more HRs in August (30) than any other NL team. The home ballpark helps, of course, but Griffey, Dunn, and even Kearns are all smashing the ball. Edwin Encarnacion has taken 4 deep since August 1. Sean Casey, Rich Aurilia, and Griff are all hitting above .345. Even wild-swinging Wily Mo Pena is having a good month. One thing about the offensive proliferation though. Let's make it clear that while the Reds are hitting for solid power and they're getting on base (.352 OBP for August), these are still the same Reds who made sure that Javier Vazquez needed only 77 pitches in 8 IP on Saturday. The AVG in August is only. 266.

The Kid and the Kid

If I told you that over a 3-week stretch the Reds had two batters, one who had 4 BB and 16 K, and the other who had 7 BB and 7 K, and I told you that one of them was named Griffey and the other Pena, how would you match them up? Logically, you'd put Wily Mo with the 4/16 BB/K. You'd be wrong. So, while Griffey is loading up this month and has raised his season average to .294, don't get too excited thinking that Kenny has found the magic of old and will soon be posting a high AVG with the high HR just like the good ol' days. Like Wily Mo's sudden bursts of power (6 RBI on Sunday), this too shall pass. Granted, he's hitting the ball with enough authority to find any open gap--he just has to remember that even All-Century players have to show some patience for long-term success.

Wha' Happened?

A mighty wind sure was blowing out of my yapper this March when I predicted that Casey could likely hit career highs in most, if not all, fantasy categories. It also looks kinda bad when Casey is resting at 16th for MLB 1B on the Player Rater, and I lauded him as a potential top-5 candidate. My only hope for Casey to make a new career high is in AVG. He's pounded out a .382 average in August, he's making contact at over 90%, and he's finally hitting the ball with some authority, parking 3 in the seats this month. He's lowered his G/F ratio from 2.00 to 1.76, which still won't net him a bushel of home runs, but it beats 24 ground ball double plays. SC shouldn't have any trouble finishing with a dozen HRs and an average close to .325 or even .330. Not top 5, but still viable.

The Red Cross: Nowhere to Run

Ryan Freel may have nowhere to go once he's ready to begin playing again with the minor league season coming to a close soon. When he does return, he'll likely have to step gingerly back into everyday play, especially with the August Aurilia is having. Ray Olmedo will also be a factor with Freel's PT as well. The good news, as always with Freel, is that hopefully manager Jerry Narron can use him and different spots on the diamond to make sure he gets a regular amount of PT upon his return. Down at AAA, Josh Hancock continues to nurse a sore elbow after being out all season with a groin injury. Bottom line--you shouldn't be counting on him anyway.

Click Your Heels 13 Times

The Reds start their longest road trip in years in the nation's capital. Pittsburgh, Houston, and Atlanta follow that--remember the Astros have great pitching, but they can't score. If you could get the Astros staff with the Reds lineup, you'd certainly be giving St. Louis plenty to think about. It's crazy 8s as Ortiz, Claussen, and Harang are now all tied for the team lead in wins with 2 shy of double digits. Harang's BBs are down, but so are his Ks--he should still finish strong. Brandon Claussen will be one to watch in case of good matchups. His last 5 starts have been pretty impressive. When he stays out of trouble with BBs, he's a solid pitcher. He's still just 26, so chalk this year up to experience for him. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.

Changing of the Guard

2005-07-27T05:16:00.000-04:00

Have you ever been to Arlington National Cemetery? If so, there is a tradition that takes place every half-hour while the cemetery is open for visitation (the half-hour schedule actually coincides with the regular MLB season; from October 1 to the end of March, the only change is at the top of the hour). Anyway, if you've been to Arlington, there's a good chance you've seen what the cemetery's official website calls an "elaborate ceremony". That description is wholly accurate, for while the witnessing the ritual is interesting, it's not exactly a barn-burner. (My opinion makes little difference, however, for I also learned that even were I in the military, I'm ineligible to be a guard of the Tomb of the Unknowns because I'm too short! Under 5'10" need not apply.)

What's all this grave talk have to do with fantasy baseball? Well, your Cincinnati Reds have been in the process of the Changing of the Guard in 2005. Barry Larkin, long time SS, is gone. The last Red to play over 100 games at 3B was Aaron Boone in 2002. Seven different Reds have played 2B this year alone. The infield solidarity of Boone, Larkin, Todd Walker, and Sean Casey of '02 seems a long time ago. So, the Reds IF has been in transition for a while now, but if the Reds have their way, the long Changing of the Guard that began with the trade of Aaron Boone to the Yanks will be over within a week and the Reds IF could be more solidified than ever. Right now we'll take a look at the new left side of the IF and who could at 2B if the Reds trade Rich Aurilia before the deadline.

3B: Edwin Encarnacion

EE has been one of the top prospects in the organization for a couple years now and the Reds have been looking to this call-up for about as long. With Joe Randa's exit to SD, it paves the way from Edwin to take over 3B permanently. Now, you may say, "Oh yeah, that's what they said when Brandon Larson arrived. I'll pass." And you should--for now, at least. EE figures to get fairly regular play, but at 22, he's still got some maturing to do. The good news for skeptics is that he has much better contact skills than Larson ever had. He's also got more power, more speed, and a better glove. Edwin could produce All-Star caliber numbers one day, but that day won't be anytime soon. He won't figure in the mix for '05, but if you're watching young 3B talent, definitely look here.

SS: Felipe Lopez

His name and talents are old news to fantasy owners by now, and in my last column, I even forecasted a possible decline in his breakout production. He is certainly struggling of late, hitting .158 in his last 5 games (3-19). The numbers sure make it look as if this could continue. He's fanned in 4 of his last 8 ABs, and his SLG has dropped 33 points since July 1 as a result of his .427 SLG in July, which is almost 100 points lower than his total for any of the first 3 months. Lopez certainly has power, talent, and a solid future--the 1st half of this season wasn't a fluke--but the window to deal him at the value he's attained this year is drawing shut fast. Of course, hanging onto him for his multi-position eligibility is not a bad idea--just remember that 3B won't be there next year.

2B: Ryan Freel?

This is the only speculation in the mix for now. The Reds would love to deal Rich Aurilia, according to the Dayton Daily News, possibly to the Dodgers (and Aurilia wouldn't mind it either saying, "I could help that team."). If so, Encarnacion could play everyday at 3B instead of splitting with Freel and Freel could play 2B full-time allowing an occasional start for Rey Olmedo when Freel spelled someone at another position. The likelihood of Aurilia being dealt increases when you consider his paltry 500K price tag. The Reds just have to find a taker and he'll most likely be doing the Randa shuffle toward the left coast. Then, fantasy favorite Freel will again have a clear shot to play every day--just as it should be.

The Red Cross: W

Don't expect to see Ryan Wagner anytime soon. He still hasn't been clear to throw at all, says the Cincinnati Post. Even when he is, it won't be off a mound and there's no guarantee he won't see some minor league rehab work, especially since the bullpen hasn't been absolutely tanking lately. The 6% mixed/19% NL owners will be waiting a little while longer. Ben Weber has been moving his way up the ladder. After pitching well in Class A Dayton, he appeared for AA Chattanooga Monday night and did well there also. While that's encouraging for Ben, keep in mind it's minor league hitting and also Butter Churn's 8.09 MLB ERA and 9 BB/8 K pre-injury before getting excited. Josh Hancock continues to rehab, but let's be honest, at this point, 2005 is most likely a wash for him.

Red Flags

Don't expect too many more weeks for Javier Valentin like the one he just had. However, don't be surprised if this career .237 hitter stays a lot closer to his '05 average of .283. He's walked 17 times to only 19 Ks. His contact % is as high as it's ever been as well, so the plate patience seems real. Ken Griffey Jr. is a less than a week away from completing his 2nd straight month of hitting .300 or better and his 3rd straight month with at least 6 HR. With a July OPS of 1.121, Junior deserves way more credit than he's getting (plus don't forget about his still-superior defense). Matt Belisle, Kent Mercker, and David Weathers have combined for a 3.16 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and a 2.8 K/BB in July. Now that's finally some relief. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.

Hats for Bats

2005-07-21T00:02:00.000-04:00

With the trade deadline approaching, the only Reds that anyone has any interest in are the ones holding bats. It remains to be seen if guys like Wily Mo "Cerrano", Adam Dunn, Ken Griffey, Jr., Joe Randa, or Sean Casey will be wearing red and black on August 1, but the good news for NL owners is that it's likely that the ones that are dealt (which could be less that you might think) could very well stay in the NL. Griffey has been attached to 2 AL teams (New York, Chicago), but it's almost silly to think that anyone would take on his salary--and that's bypassing the silly notion that he'd even greenlight a trade (which he won't). Those of you gripping, worried about losing Dunn's bat to the AL should remain clenched for now, but I think you'll most likely be OK.

We're Better Than You Are!

Nah-nee-nah-nee-boo-boo! The Reds really have to enjoy playing the Colorado Rockies, which is clearly the only team that they can categorically state that they're better than. In the 3-game sweep, the Rox even made the Reds rotation look decent. Aaron Harang pitched a gem (which the bullpen again almost subsequently blew), Eric Milton looked better than terrible, and Ramon Ortiz put together a pretty good outing (6.1 IP, 8 H, 4 ER 6 K, 1 BB). The bats put together 20 runs, 8 bombs, and maybe most surprisingly, 15 walks while striking out 19 times (the Ks are still terrible, but the 15 BB actually showed a little patience). Sean Casey even mashed his 1st HR at home this year (finally). Don't expect more from Case yet--his G/F is still a very high 1.99.

The Red Cross: Freel on the Choo-Choo

Manager Jerry Narron told the Cincinnati Enquirer that he wanted Ryan Freel to get around 25 ABs in AA Chattanooga before activating him from the DL. After Tuesday night, he's up to 17 with 2 BBs (16 PA). If Narron's estimate holds, he'll probably be activated near the end of the week and certainly before the West Coast swing beginning Monday in LA. Freel owners do have to worry about Freel setting back in at 2B, which appears to be somewhat claimed by Aurilia. Freel will probably gain full time PT, though--at the very least, he can provide a day off for others around the diamond. Josh Hancock is still throwing bullpen sessions, preparing to return. As much trouble as he's had in game action at AAA, I wouldn't expect him to provide any relief from the Reds constant rotation woes.

F-Lo Headed Lower?

The idea in fantasy baseball is to trade surging players at the zenith of their production curve to maximize the results for your team. As your portfolio consultant, I must advise you to take a look at Felipe Lopez, especially those of you not in keeper leagues. His .288 average in July (while not terrible) does indicate (along with a .394 SLG) indicate that Lopez could've peaked for '05. Now, that isn't to say satisfactory production won't continue, but the level that Lopez customers have enjoyed thus far is more likely now to taper off. He's still one of the best SS in the NL this year, but heading down the stretch drive, his solid year could give you a window to deal him for an even bigger name in the immediate future. Not a wholesale recommendation, mind you--just a suggestion.

Slap On! Slap Off!

A .300 hitter is a boon for a fantasy team. They're few and far between for sure. Of those currently eligible for the batting title, only 28 currently exist in MLB. But a .300 hitter who has only 4 HR, whose SLG is .405 (and a even more meager .377 in July), and who plays a power position (1B) can be a little frustrating. Sean Casey, aka The Mayor, now aka The Slapper, is causing more than a few fantasy owners to scratch their heads. He will most likely hit over .300 for the season, but as we mentioned earlier, his power is totally absent for now. He's grounded into a MLB-leading 23 (!) double plays. I would venture to say he's had more 4-3 groundouts than anyone in baseball this year. Hitting .309, he offers little else and marks himself as a certified disapointment for '05.

Am I Really Typing This?

I just felt a shiver. Popped my fingers. Took a deep breath. OK. I've lamented over this Reds rotation all year (and they're awful, to be sure), but there's certain point where you have to look at the number and say, "It's gotta get better. It HAS to." Any it just may--a little. Looking at Eric Milton, the numbers appear to show a little improvement. He's had a little stretch of success since late June. In 4 starts, his ERA is 4.13 with 21 K and only 4 BB. Even more impressive, 2 HR in 24 IP! Now, I wouldn't say he's turned it around just yet, but he'd be easy to get in a good matchup and you may just want to consider it (another shiver). Luke Hudson also isn't great, but he isn't as bad as he's throwing either. You might watch for a favorable matchup there as well.

Fun With the Abacus

Even with names like Griffey, Dunn, Pena, and now Lopez in the lineup slugging, Joe Randa has the team lead in 2B with 24. Who says hitters see the ball better in day games? Felipe doesn't. He's hitting a mere .245 with 18 Ks in 98 day ABs. Maybe he needs his night light--'cause his night time average is .335. Don't let it get too late in a close night game, though. Felipe goes to bed early apparently, hitting .220 after the 7th inning in close games. Maybe it has something to do with the moon or the tides. David Weathers, who could have a foothold on the closer's spot for now, has fanned 8 in 7.1 IP in July. His K/9 for the year is now 6.8 and his K/BB is 2.25. That could keep him throwing in the 9th. Stay tuned. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.

Road Warriors

2005-07-08T00:01:00.000-04:00

Talk about starting the 2nd half of the season on the right foot. The Reds, who didn't win back-to-back road games at all in the first 81 games, won two in a row against San Francisco. Sadly, that only gives them 9 road victories on the season, still leaving them as one of only 3 teams who hasn't managed to muster double digits wins away from home yet (Tampa Bay and Colorado being the other two). Terrible, yes, but when you look at the numbers, is it any wonder? The team ERA is horrid at 5.70 (highest in the NL), but it's a mind-bending 6.39 on the road! What really takes the cake though is that the Reds are 2nd in the NL with 421 runs scored (behind only STL), but only 157 of those are only the road. That's fewer road runs that every NL team but Colorado.

Mr. All Star

2005 has been an absolute bust-out season for Felipe Lopez. He has already doubled his HR output for all of 2004 and his 14 bombs are only 8 behind his career total previous to '05. His average has increased each month thus far (.259, .304, .333, .357 so far in July), and his contact % is the highest it's been in his MLB career (82%). FL is hitting the ball often and he's hitting it hard. Good combination. Should he be starting at SS in the ASG instead of David Eckstein? Yeah, probably, but we won't get into that. What we will discuss is something highlighted by Baseball HQ about Lopez and his success at the top of the order. Batting in the 1-2 spots, his bb%/ct% is 9/85, but hitting lower it's a terrible 3/67. Hopefully Narron keeps writing Lopez's name on the lineup card early.

The Red Cross: Freelin' Around

I've been getting quite a bit of mail in regards to the scrappy Ryan Freel. The team's official site reports that Freel did some sprint work at GABP on Tuesday and came away with some discomfort in the inflamed toe that has him on the disabled list. They're not necessarily classifying it as a setback, but there's no way to spin that in a good way, especially when Freel's legs, feet, and speed are his primary weapon and strength as a player. Manager Jerry Narron said that Freel wouldn't be back until after the All-Star Break. That sounds about right. With another week on the mend, he could be ready to go. Although, if the pain continues, the Reds aren't likely to rush him back. In last place--what's the hurry? Not what fantasy owners want to hear, but that's reality.

Belisle the Closer?

Dave Miley was determined not to pick a closer after the departure of Danny Graves, but Jerry Narron may have settled on a guy much quicker--at least for now. Matt Belisle now has a save under his belt and Narron was quoted by several sources as saying that fans shouldn't "be surprised if he starts the ninth". I'd say that's a pretty good indication that Belisle will certainly get some chances in the immediate future. David Weathers and Kent Mercker still remain in the picture, but Belisle, unfortunately, doesn't look to have any more potential in the role than that pair. He had a limited success as a starter, but his K/9 is really too low to be a dominant closer and hasn't done well at all at keeping the ball in the park (1.5 HR/9). He's certainly not a long-term option.

Wily Mo Buffet

In the last week, Wily Mo Pena his hitting .367 with 2 bombs and 8 RBI. He has more total bases than any other Red on an offense than has averaged almost 5.5 runs in that span. Basically, he's on another stat binge. Just like restaurants with "buffet hours" for patrons to engorge themselves on their fine dining, Wily Mo has periods of super statistical intake that will be followed by "closing time" and a week well under the Mendoza line. The reason I know this is because during this latest stretch of success he's also accumulated 12 Ks in 30 ABs. A hitter's average will rarely stay anywhere near .300 with a 60% contact rate. Ask Austin Kearns. Wily Mo hits the ball really hard--but he misses the ball a whole lot too. Enjoy it, but the buffet will be closing.

A Country Boy Can Survive

Hitting .224 makes it harder to see how well Jason LaRue has been at the plate since the beginning of June, but make no mistake--he's done quite well. LaRue's line since June 1 looks like this: .299, 4 HR, 14 RBI, .382 OBP, and possibly most impressively for him--0.69 B/KK ratio. For his career, that ratio is 0.27. The level of patience he's shown recently is a massive improvement, so it's no surprise he's hitting 17 points higher than his career average this season (.259 vs. .242). An extended period of this patience bodes well for his average staying right where it is. Added onto that, LaRue's been hitting the ball really hard with a .597 SLG since June 1. He's not flashy, but that just helps you easily acquire MLB's 7th best C in the last 30 days, according to ESPN's Player Rater.

If Only We Could Put These Guys Together...

Austin Kearns jacked 3 out in 1 game earlier in the week for AAA Louisville. For those who love reading minor league stats, he's now hitting .342 with 4 HR and 16 RBI in 19 games. The underlying stats don't look as nice though, as his BB/K ratio is 0.42 and his contact percentage has only crept up to 75, not far enough above his 70% mark in Cincinnati to indicate he's gotten it completely together. Nonetheless, he'll remain a occasional raw power option if he's recalled because his surface numbers appear to be improving. Sean Casey may have 98 hits (.316), but only 21 are for extra bases. Of the 32 MLB hitters currently hitting .300, only Omar Vizquel's .400 SLG is lower than Casey's .402. Case has lost his pop for 2005. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.

The Other Shoe Drops

2005-06-28T01:03:00.000-04:00

COO John Allen put his foot down with a surprise trip to Colorado June 5th to tell the Reds that something had to change. Something did--Dave Miley was fired. And this just in--the Reds will still stink. Miley didn't do anything wrong by this team. They scored and scored to no avail and the pitching just itches of Rocky Mountain Fever. Sure, Miley wasn't the greatest situational game manager, but he did a pretty good job at managing his personnel. If anything, he was a little too good to the players--which in turn, caused a bit of ruckus when he did try to impart a little discipline by removing the massage chairs of Ken Griffey and Adam Dunn from the clubhouse. Dunn wouldn't shut up the local media about it, even changing his at-bat music to George Strait's "The Chair."

In the end, Miley was only partly to blame. It's true that he really didn't have control of the team near the end. He and Gullett got even less out of a pitching staff capable of giving them very little in the first place, but as they say, you can't fire the players (ah, but if you could…), so, alas, Miley must go to give the impression of a change in direction. But don't be fooled--it won't be. This team, because of how absolutely terrible this collective of arms is, will (and should) sit in the cellar of the NL Central for the rest of the year. I know that Pittsburgh and Milwaukee have a bad rep for always being terrible, but make no mistake, both of those clubs have better teams that the Reds. The Bucs don't have much of an offense, but they do have Oliver Perez and Mark Redman.

So How About Those Bats?

No, the AAA affiliate in Louisville, although those guys are at least close to .500 baseball. Well, in case you hadn't noticed, Felipe Lopez is for real now. The .301 average is legit, although he'll need to keep improving on those Ks if he wants to do it every year. The power has always been there. He's making much better contact than he ever has in the majors and his minors history shows he can continue. Remember, he's only 25 and he's got a bright future in front of him now (including a probable All-Star appearance). There might be some owners who think that he's playing over his head. Find them. He's not. Felipe's finally ready. Despite being on the DL, see his average down to .287 with only 9 RBI, Ryan Freel has 21 SB and a .406 OBP, so he's another prime target.

What you're seeing from Griffey is what you're going to continue to get. Griff has always been a consistent producer when he's healthy, it's just that not too many of us remember what that's like. I've said it multiple times before, New Griffey isn't as good as All-Century Griffey, but age gets us all and it's still good production for a 35-year-old. Sean Casey will probably hit .330+ this year. Sure the HRs are down, but that happen when your G/F ratio is 2.00. Last year, when he mashed 24 HR, it was 1.33--the lowest of his career. Interesting note about Casey--he's hit into 18 DPs already this year (most in NL). His career high is 19 ('03). He could pass that by the All-Star Break. Wily Mo Pena has struck out at least 1 in all but 2 games this month. His .275 will drop.

The Red Cross: Wilson is a Castaway

With just 1 win in '05, Paul Wilson hasn't been much more helpful to the Reds than, say, a volleyball to keep the players company, and now he'll miss the rest of the season. While you won't miss him for your fantasy needs, the replacement the Reds will use for the remainder of the year (Luke Hudson), probably won't fare much better. Thus far, he's looked below average in his 4 starts; 7 ER @ CLE isn't a good sign. There isn't any help in AAA, either, unless you count Elizardo Ramirez, who didn't shine in his time with the big club. He's also only 22 and obviously needs more time in the minors, although it's not really clear whether or not he'll ever be dominant enough to pitch successfully at the MLB level. Josh Hancock's rehab ERA is 10.34 in 3 starts, so don't look for him back yet.

Kearns Making Noises in Louisville

Although Austin Kearns is "having a good time" in AAA, he did tell the Dayton Daily News that "there comes a time when you want to get established with a team and play every day" and wouldn't be opposed to going elsewhere to be able to do that. Well, despite the fact that he's hitting .333 in Louisville, that doesn't count toward his emaciated .224 average in Cincinnati and walking 18 times compared to fanning 50 times is hardly "establishing" oneself, but I get what he meant, I suppose. The article went on to say that the Reds don't answer trade queries for Kearns despite the apparent interest of several teams (Altanta, Washington, Chicago Cubs). Kearns has done little to prove he'll contribute anywhere in '05, but if he makes a move, keep an eye on him.

Looking Up

The Reds have managed 6-10 in facing a rough stretch of contending teams (BAL, BOS, ATL, STL, CLE) and are putting more runs on the board than everyone in the NL but St. Louis, but they've now passed Coloardo in runs allowed and lead the NL with 441. That is on a pace for 952 allowed for the year. Only 3 NL teams have ever allowed that many runs in a single season, and none of those were outside of Colorado ('93, '96, '99 Rockies). Please drop any Reds pitcher you have now. Enjoy the hitters all you like, but get rid of any Reds who walks near a mound (except for Aaron Harang). Vern Ruhle has seen the ERA of every staff that he's coached go up, so that's the only thing looking up as far as the pitching's concerned. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.

Knowing When to Say When

2005-06-14T00:29:00.000-04:00

I have a really hard time eating potato chips. I can't stop. Doesn't matter what kind--corn, tortilla, wavy--I can't stop once I've opened the bag until I'm absolutely stuffed. My wife either puts them in a sandwich bag now or puts a portion on my plate at dinnertime and declares the cabinet closed for business. It's just something about potato chips. For the Reds, Austin Kearns was their potato chips. Full of salty potential, cheesy goodness, and vivid taste, they just keep letting him hit and hit until it became bad for the team. GM Danny Boy has now officially closed the cabinet for business and sent Kearns to Louisville. And if Austin doesn't get it together down there, he's not coming back. I know that makes Reds fans and his owners very disappointed, but it's the right move.

What went wrong? Kearns was a 1st round pick. How did he get from potential Rookie of the Year candidate in 2002 to the abysmal hitter he is today? Well, he stopped making contact, for one. Contact %--'01 (AA): 84, '02: 79, '03: 77, '04: 70, '05: 71. He also started pressing at the plate, abandoning patience. BB/K ratio: '02: 0.70, '03: 0.60, '04: 0.48, '05: 0.36. These are trends that are very disturbing. I realize he's been injured, but he doesn't have that excuse any more and he's also got much more experience now. His bat still has occasional power, but with the lack of hitting skills, he becomes a dime a dozen. I like Kearns (even though I've said the Reds should've traded him 2 years in a row), but he's got to make a readjustment to ever be a quality major leaguer.

Freed Wily

Now that Kearns is gone, Pena will play everyday in RF--as long as he can stay healthy. With the quad issue that kept him out a month and now a sore knee, that's apparently no small task. He teased us all again with his 2 HR game vs. TB, but it's at least nice to know that the PT issue is out of the way for the immediate future. I recommend Wily Mo highly for those in need of power. I don't think this .313 AVG will hold, but the fact that he hits the ball so incredibly hard does give him a better chance of reaching base. Right now Wily Mo is hitting a HR just about 1 in every 8 ABs. That's all-world. With good health, it will be interesting to see how he responds with no one pushing him from the bench. We may be close to the coronation of a new megapower slugger.

A Full Plate

What's very cool is that the Reds have only scored 4 runs less than St. Louis' 323, which leads the NL in production. They've scored more runs that 25 of MLB's 30 teams. With Dunn, Griffey, Lopez, Casey, Freel, and Randa all having solid years (and oh,yeah, Wily Mo's back), the bell chimes often when the Reds have the sticks in hand. Only the STL, BOS, BAL, and TEX have scored more. In 9 of the Reds' last 10 wins, they've scored at least 9 runs. It's a good time to have a Reds hitter. What's inherently depressing about this is that they're still in last place and only the Giants and Rockies have worse records in the NL. Only the Devil Rays and Rockies have surrendered more runs. This of course should lead to a discussion on the pitching, but I'm afraid I'd start crying.

Saves?

Since Graves went bye-bye, the Reds have only recorded 2 (both by David Weathers). DW looks to be the best bet for the role right now, although Miley has repeatedly said that he'll basically go with whomever he feels like at the moment. That means that Ryan Wagner (who's been the topic of mucho mail) will probably get a few looks as well as Kent Mercker. None of these really have what it takes to be a closer (or in Wagner's case, at least not yet), so don't be surprised to see a lot of shifting and maneuvering in save situations. What'd I do if I were a fantasy owner (wait--I am) is just avoid the Reds bullpen altogether in terms of saves. I've made that recommendation before and I won't change it. Wagner's good for middle relief, but take any saves of his as dessert topping.

The Red Cross: Arms and More Arms

Paul Wilson is still coming back rather slowly from shoulder trouble, not that many owners miss him. There isn't a timetable, but his numbers are replaceable in any league. Luke Hudson got his first start of the year on Thursday and looked…not too hot, actually. He did go 6, but didn't fan a single batter, walked 4 and gave up 5 ER. Not anything you'd want your family to see, for sure. Josh Hancock fared even worse in his first rehab start in Louisville--4.1 IP, 10 ER. Sheesh. He followed that up with 5 IP, 4 ER. It could be a while before we see him again as well, but like Wilson, his numbers can be found anywhere (not that you'd look for numbers like that). Anderson Machado and Rey Olmedo will begin rehab stints soon, but with Lopez's play, they've got nowhere to contribute.

Nothing to Lose

I know the Reds are terrible, but I've got to say that for the first time since O'Brien became GM, I'm really starting to respect the moves that Danny Boy is making. I didn't really malign them before--I just wasn't that impressed. The Reds have nowhere to go but up and making the atypical move here and there (i.e. Graves, Jimenez, Kearns) can't do much to make it worse. A tip of the cap to O'Brien for not firing Miley yet too. This certainly isn't all his fault. Quick note--the last time Sean Casey struck out was May 22. And still people are surprised that he hits .324. With the G/F ratio at 1.9, we won't be seeing many HRs, but we could see .340. Here's something else--the Reds hit 17 HR in this 6-game homestand. Wow. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.

Tied in Knots

2005-06-08T02:12:00.000-04:00

When Chief Operating Officer John Allen got out of bed Sunday morning and tied his Windsor knot, boarded a plane, and headed for Colorado, he had a mission. Now, I'm no Boy Scout, but I know his mission wasn’t to show up in the visitor's clubhouse at Coors Field and practice any Friendship or Flower Knots with Reds players or Dave Miley. It was to deliver a message that the way the Reds have been playing as of late "isn't acceptable". He sure left many Reds' stomachs tied in knots for Sunday's game (an 8-6 loss). The Reds and their coaches now have a mission of their own--either tie up some wins quickly or they will be feeling another more well-known and ominous knot around their seasons--a noose. So what's gone so wrong this year for the Reds? Heh--what's knot?

Offseason Review: Take 2

I got torched in my inbox after taking a rather negative look at the Reds offseason moves earlier in the spring (one reader told me I wasn't a "true fan"--I guess he wanted to hear the Reds would win the Series). Well, let's breakdown those moves (again) two months into the season. Eric Milton: 21 HR, 65 IP, 7.06 ERA. 25 mil well spent, huh? Ben Weber: 8.00+ ERA, 0.8 K/BB, DL (which is actually a blessing). David Weathers: 4.60 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 1.7 K/BB. Kent Mercker: 2.19 ERA, but only 4.7 K/9. Ramon Ortiz: 5.23 ERA, 1-4 record, 1.8 K/BB. Rich Aurilia: .216 AVG, .649 OPS. Joe Randa: .294 AVG, .824 OPS, 6 HR. The fan base in Cincinnati was excited that ownership decided to up the payroll by 15 million. Free tacos for fans would've been a better investment.

Twenty five mil over 3 years to Milton for a guy who can't even keep it in the ballpark? His K/9 is down to 5.3, so don't expect him to get it together soon. Opposing batters are hitting .312 against him. That's pathetic. He's had bad luck, but hasn't pitched well all year. Ben Weber was tossed from a AAA ball club last year. Enough said--at least it should've been. Weathers isn't terrible, but he's not a 1.25 million pitcher. Mercker actually hasn't done that bad, but with a 4.7 K/9 he's had some luck. He is keeping it in the park though. Ramon Ortiz was a ridiculously bad sign at 3.55 M. He can occasionally throw a decent game every now and then, but so can loads of cheaper arms. Joe Randa was good (even though the Reds didn't need him). Aurilia? Yuck. Twice.

The Red Cross: Full Beds

Wily Mo Pena is starting to heat up in AAA. His average is up to .292 with a HR and 4 RBI. He should be ready soon, and as I've said, he'll play early because Austin Kearns is absolutely stinking up the joint. Even if Wily Mo's got rust coming out of his armpits, he'll no doubt hit better than Kearns' .225. Let me just say this--Austin Kearns career is in trouble right now. Luke Hudson had a pretty good start in AA but did get knocked around a little (6.2 IP, 6 H, 7 K, 1 BB, 4 ER). He'll be back sooner rather than later. Josh Hancock threw a simulated game on Friday and the Reds are looking at getting him a rehab start very soon. Stay tuned. Paul Wilson tossed the ball around at GABP on Sunday. He'll continue to progress along as quickly as his shoulder will allow.

Say What?

Rich Aurilia has had an awful '05. He's been hot lately, but too late to keep his everyday job. Overall, he's been a huge (but unsurprising) flop. "I just wasn't getting any luck. Balls were going right at people," he told the Reds official site about his earlier play. Okay, yeah, he's had some bad luck (26% hit rate) that led to his .216 AVG. But if you gave him a 30% hit rate, which was his average from '02-'04, he'd still be hitting only .250. Not exactly world class. On Sunday, Adam Dunn said Allen's visit would "hopefully get some people's attention", according to the Dayton Daily News. After a .200 AVG and 34 Ks in May, maybe he should pay attention too instead of poking at Miley through the media after Miley removed his massage chair from the clubhouse.

Temperature Check

HOT: Felipe Lopez continues to tear it up, hitting .348 over the last week. With the highest NL SS OPS so far, he should be at the All-Star Game. Rich Aurilia has 2 HR, 5 RBI, and a .313 AVG this past week. Don't bite--it won't hold. Ken Griffey is still quieting putting up good numbers this year. He's only behind Dunn in HR and leads the team by 8 in RBI. COLD: On the cooler side of things lies Captain Cold himself (all due respects to The Flash), Austin Kearns. He's 3 for his last 18. Right now his only redeeming value is a significant BB% (which doesn't help in too many fantasy leagues) and an occasional burst of power. Everything else is F-L-A-T. Ryan Freel is also under .200 for the last week (.154), but he really is hitting the ball right at people. Have patience with him.

Who Said It Couldn’t Get Worse?

Ownership is upset, the Reds are in last, the manager who last led the Reds to a World Series is in town (on another team), and after that 3-game set with Tampa, the Reds get Baltimore, Boston, Atlanta, and St. Louis--all division leaders or contenders. Now would be a good time to get in the bathtub with some pillows and a radio, because I have a feeling things are about to get really stormy. Remember all those thrilling wins in the Reds' final AB over the last couple of seasons? This year, they are 1-30 when trailing after 7 innings. The Reds have scored more runs than everyone in the NL Central except St. Louis. How are they in last? 321 runs allowed--only less than Colorado's 332 in the NL. SERENITY NOW! I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.

Bizarro Reds

2005-06-02T00:00:00.000-04:00

I leave the country for a little over a week, excited about my new marriage but resigned to the fact that the Reds will be the same stinky, underperforming, undermanaged dreck when I return, and Danny Boy & Co. decide to turn conventional Reds wisdom on its head. Huge moves. Danny Graves--bye bye. D'Angelo Jimenez--AA's that way. Felipe Lopez ties his career high in HR in MAY, and he's hitting almost .300. Ryan Freel is solidified in the starting lineup and getting long overdue credit. Am I back in the same country, the same world, the same existence? Okay, yeah, the Reds still stink--that's not new at all. The way things look, they could really end up dead last in the NL Central (Houston won't be this bad all year). You know what, though? These new Reds? I like 'em.

Turn 2

Although fantasy geeks (including myself) would still like to see Freel get the occastional day in the OF or at 3B, the fact that he's basically the everyday option at 2B is victory for his talent and his owners. More than 30 SBs is almost a certainty now along with a real shot at 40. An average of .300 also isn't out of the question with an outstanding .429 OBP and a BB/K ratio of 1.41. Enjoy it. As for Lopez, we discussed the power surge (which is over his head but not completely unsubstantiated). He could finish with high teen HRs in a full-time role. The average will come down, but he's past his career .243 AVG days now. Don't expect nearly the same speed from Felipe as you'd get from Freel--they're in 2 different leagues there. I'd add him in a deep league--SS is his to lose.

Any Closer to a Closer?

The Reds haven't had a closer all year (even before the release of Graves) and they don't have one now that he's gone either. But the short answer is probably no. There have been 2 save opportunities since Graves' departure--1 went to Weathers, who converted, and one went to Wagner, who didn't. Miley could choose to go with Weathers or put the eggs in Wagner's basket early, which is want most fans want anyway. Mercker could even get a few. To me, Wagner just isn't a closer yet. Make no mistake--he will be. He will be a super closer, just like I will be 30 some day. Right now, I'm thankfully still in my 20's and Ryan Wagner has still just logged 99.1 career MLB innings. The Reds won't compete in '05. No reason to rush Wagner. Give him 1 occasionally and bide your time. We'll see.

I Don't Miss Jose Guillen Anymore

When the Reds opened up the Great American Flea Market to the Firesale of 2003 that saw names like Aaron Boone and Jose Guillen hit the road, I was screaming at the trees, "Don't trade Jose Guillen! Trade Griffey! Kearns! The new mascot Gapper (still think the Reds should ship him out)!" But, of course, the Reds sent Guillen to Oakland for Aaron Harang and spare parts. I still miss Jose Guillen, but they really got something special in return on this deal. Aaron Harang's ERA is 2.97 despite just 4 wins. His K/9 is 7.7 and his K/BB is 3.0. Aaron Harang is for real, people, and still available in 60% of mixed leagues. This is your last chance to get in on Harang. A few more gems like Monday (7 IP, 10 K) and you'll be too late.

The Red Cross

Wily Mo Pena is finally doing a minor league rehab stint in Louisville after being out entirely too long with a quad issue. He fanned in his first 2 AAA ABs, so it may be a little bit before he's up to speed. Don't be surprised to see him in the lineup when he finally returns though--Austin Kearns is still just absolutely awful. Rich Aurilia is back but not in time to save his job at SS. He'll be in the Ryan Freel role, but won't have the benefit of playing OF to up his ABs. No reason to own him anyway. Paul Wilson currently has no timetable for return, but the Cincinnati Enquirer reports he's at least been tossing the ball around. As with Aurilia, you shouldn't be in a position of having to track his progress. Luke Hudson and Josh Hancock are still awaiting rehab assignments.

Eric…Colon?

Last season, Bartolo Colon was coming off a May where he had a 6.37 ERA, gave up 8 HR in 29 IP, and batters hit .289 against him. This May, Milton has fared even worse (7.29, 10 HR, .297). Colon struggled through June even worse but righted the ship to post a 12-4 record, 3.64 ERA, and .232 OBA in the 2nd half. Is there any indication that Eric Milton could be in for that kind of turnaround? I'm in a 20-team league where he is sitting right out there in the free agent pool. Sadly, I may just have to let him stay there. EM has shown no indication of keeping the ball in the park. Colon's G/F ratio was 0.91 in '04; Milton's is 0.60 in '05. That's a big difference. Milton's K/9 is 5.4. Colon's was almost 7.0. So, for now, Eric Milton's cologne smells nothing like Bartolo.

Good News is No News

Considering how much flak Ken Griffey Jr. took over his multiple injuries since becoming a Red, it's funny that 2 months into the season with Griffey having played in all but 3 games is such a non-story. Why is that? Because his numbers aren't 1997 Griffey. We loves a comeback but Griffey's has been pretty vanilla. No, 8 HR isn't bad at all, and yes, he's on pace for 100+ RBI, but the Reds are in 5th and his average is .266. Still, Griffey's playing hard and quite well for an injury-prone 35-year-old. I'd like to take a minute to applaud a player I've always wanted to see do well. He's playing every day and not saying, "Hey guys! Look at me! What about me now?" Stay in the lineup, Griff--glad to see you healthy. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.

Where's George and Weezy?

2005-05-18T00:01:00.000-04:00

Take one look at the NL Central standings and you won't have any trouble mistaking the Reds for the Jeffersons. They aren't movin' on up. They're living in the basement. They may be up in the big leagues, gettin' their turn at bat, but that dee-luxe apartment in the sky inhabited by the Cardinals is already a long way off, more than 10 games away in mid-May. Reds fans, and fantasy owners, are left with a lot of questions, few with good answers. A team that was at .500 after a wild 11-9 win over the Cubs on 4.26, has since gone 4-14, surrendering 125 runs in just 18 games. In the preseason, I was sure that the Reds would at least be better than the Pirates in this division (and they still are), but right now the Reds don't have to have a piece of the pie--they'll take a crumb.

Mo Brother, Where Art Thou?

In that last game before the Reds started this abysmal streak, Wily Mo Pena hurt his quad and has managed just 5 ABs in 2 games since. One of those ABs was a bomb, 3 of the other 4 were whiffs. You can expect more of that when he finally plays again. It's frustrating for Pena owners to see his potential either sit on the bench or lost to injury after producing as he did in April. Pena is eligible to come off the DL on Friday and right now, it appears that will be the case. He worked pain-free at GABP Monday, says the Cincinnati Enquirer, but Miley noted that sometimes the pain for Mo comes the next day. It's a wait and see deal for now, but expect him back soon. Austin Kearns is hitting .364 over the last week, so again regular PT won't come easy for the big Mo.

What in the Freel is Going On?

It's possible that his abacus broke. It's possible he never watched Sesame Street. It's also possible that he wants to give D'Angelo Jimenez every single earthly chance to keep his 2B role. Whatever the reason, Dave Miley is not starting Ryan Freel every day--and he should be. He's 5th on the team in hits, yet only 9th in ABs. He has 57% of the team's SB. He's tops in AVG and OBP, even higher than walk-machine Adam Dunn's .440 OBP. He's walked more than he's struck out--no other Red can say that. Since the beginning of last season, his OBP is .373. His career OBP is .378. D'Angelo Jimenez's is .349. Joe Randa's is .342. Here's something else--he's started 22 games this season and gotten at least one hit in 19 of them. The 3 he didn't? He still reached base with a walk.

From Eleven to Twelve?

Barry Larkin was unceremoniously shoved out the door by the Reds in the offseason, forcing the future HOFer into retirement. My distaste for that move is already noted. My distaste for the signing of Aurilia is also noted (nothing against RA, but the Reds didn't need him). However, Felipe Lopez is looking to remedy all that by playing his way into the starting role with Aurilia on the DL. Lopez's eye has improved, he's got that pop that scouts thought he had back in his bat, and he's stopped playing catch with ready fans in the third row. His .305 average is over his head because he's been fortunate (36% hit rate), but his contact % is way up (84% from 75% in '04). He's not as good as his numbers suggest--yet. He's still only 25, and he should also be playing every day.

Who in the World is Elizardo Ramirez?

I sent Carmen Sandiego out to get some info on this guy. She reports back (from an undisclosed location) that he's spent some time in the Reds and Phils organizations, mostly in low-A or rookie ball. Last year, he got some AA work in at Reading and Chattanooga, but the numbers aren't that impressive. The good news is that he has shown decent potential, but his K rate will have to rise some for him to be truly effective. Now, I'd say it's way too early to tell, but it appears he could be a bit of a soft tosser with great control who'll occasionally get whacked around. The good news is that he's 22 with plenty of time to develop. It's very possible he'll get a few more starts, but I'd let him develop on someone else's team. There are too many risks with his age and experience level.

Bleacher Fans Ask, "Will It Ever Stop?!"

The Reds lead the NL with 58 HR allowed, Eric Milton and Paul Wilson alone accounting for 24 of those. My preseason prediction of 35 HR for Milton appears to be in grave danger. To give you an idea of where the Reds stand, PHI has allowed 52 HR (2nd), COL 41 (5th) and FLA 19 (fewest). The Marlins' total is less than a third of the Reds'. Sheesh. Ballparks factors aside, that's really bad. Right now I tell you the only 2 Reds pitchers you should roster are Wagner (he won't close, but he's all this bloatpen has) and Harang (who's solid and is just getting started). The Dayton Daily News reports that Harang is the first Reds starter to go 8 IP in consecutive starts since Chris Reitsma in 2001, who was subsequently traded to ATL.

I Definitely Do.

I really appreciate all the well wishes regarding my upcoming wedding. The day is upon us and I'll be putting myself on the 15-day WL. You can still e-mail at redletters@insightbb.com, but I won't be able to answer you until I return. There are still a few e-mails I haven't gotten to yet that I hope to reply to before I travel to our wedding. I appreciate your patience and I'll be back and ready to go after Memorial Day. They call your wedding day "the greatest day of your life". That's what they say. For me and the most wonderful girl I've ever met, forever starts Saturday--but it won't be our greatest day. I believe it will indeed be priceless, but we should all have even greater days ahead--including the Reds. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.

The Paul Wilson Club

2005-05-10T21:28:00.000-04:00

Let me tell you about a very exclusive group. It was founded on 5.28.03 as The Jeff Austin Club after his 5 ER performance against the Marlins in which he didn't record a single out before being yanked. The membership grew when Paul Wilson was inducted weeks later at Houston, blowing up for 7 ER without a single batter retired before hitting the showers. Now, almost two years later, Wilson is not only a member, he's also now the president after his 5 H, 8 ER coup de grace. He's the 3rd Reds starter since the start of 2002 to not get out of inning 1 and he's done it twice (Austin also did it again in his very next start in '03, but got 2 outs before getting pulled. Luis Pineda couldn't get of the 1st @ STL on 6.30.02, but he at least retired 1). Hail to the new Chief, Mr. Paul Wilson.

There have been frequent warnings in this column in the recent past about the risk you acquire if you decide to roster Paul Wilson. Only 0.1% of you in mixed leagues haven't listened, and 47.6% of NL owners have surmised that Wilson could be of some use to their squad. Hopefully unless you're an owner who absolutely can't find pitching anywhere else, you'll finally take heed and waive Wilson accordingly. I hear plenty of great things about Paul Wilson's character, but character doesn't bring home roto points. You might argue that Wilson has had 4 "quality starts" out of 7, but I'll tell you that the quality start is an idiotic stat and that Wilson's 7 IP, 3 ER, 9 K turn vs. PIT on 4.20 has been his only good start of the year. Wilson is a 4 or 5 NL starter at best.

Comin' Around

After hitting .258 through 4.23, Sean Casey is now up to .280 and has been as high as .316, leading the Reds in multi-hit games with 7. His G/F ratio is up to 2.28, most of those hit hard to the right side, making him easier to defend. That many grounders also means that HRs will be few and far between, but if you've got him for AVG, you're going to be satisfied. He's only hitting .230 at home, but that will change with better luck. Another Red who is "startin' to come together, boys", as Lou Brown would say, is Ken Griffey Jr. Number 30 is 5 for his last 17 with 2 bombs. Griff is another guy who's hitting a lot more grounders than normal. His G/F is over 1.00 and its highest since 1992 (1.22). His May success shouldn't surprise--it's his highest career OBP month (.984).

PT Phone Home

Last time we talked about the issues with PT at several positions. A week later, there's yet another wrinkle--it appears now that Ryan Freel is going to start siphoning off ABs from Austin Kearns in RF. His .338 AVG and .456 OBP make it easy to see why he has to be in the lineup everyday, especially on a team that's struggling like the Reds. He has now passed Jimenez for the most plate appearances on the team in the leadoff spot (70 to 63). I think it's a safe bet that Freel will be playing just about every day for the foreseeable future (either at 2B or RF). As they say, talent always rises to the top, and Freel is certainly making the most of 2005 so far. For Kearns owners, I've told several e-mailers that if there are any even remotely better options, I'd waive bye-bye to Austin.

The Red Cross

Wily Mo Pena leads the list of Reds that owners most want to see back in the lineup. For now, though, his quad is limiting him to strictly pinch-hit duty, and it's not encouraging that he's coming along so slowly since his injury April 23. Those of you with Pena will just have to be patient, but the good news is that once he is available, he's likely going to get a chance to pick up where he left off, getting the nod before Kearns, who's in a real rut now. Josh Hancock and Luke Hudson are still being brought along very slowly--the faster they heal, the sooner the Reds have to come to big decision with Brandon Claussen, Hudson, and Hancock all involved. Ramon Ortiz is apparently OK after his 2nd start back from his groin injury, but neither start has been very impressive.

Bombs Away!

In case you're wondering, the Eric Milton Home Run Ticker is up to 13 in 39.1 IP. You don't need high math to see that that's right at 3 every 9 IP. Sure, he's got a 22/7 K/BB ratio (which is excellent), but his K/9 is 5.0 and it's tough to be very dominant with that few whiffs. Opponents are also hitting .303 against him so far, which is another huge red flag, although batters have been fortunate with a 35% hit rate. I'd love to give you a stat saying that he's starting to get more consistent but he's really not. He's started 7 games and given up a bomb in all of them but one (4.16 vs. HOU). Only one other start (5.2 vs. STL) was great, so right now it's just best to say that Milton has the potential to be better, but not until he can keep it in the park a lot more.

I Want the Same Thing!

I've been quite a bit of mail about Ryan Wagner supplanting Danny Graves as closer. Some of you have tried the tack of pleading with me to have a sit down with Miley to discuss this option. As much as I'd love to have Miley's ear, I don't--but I can tell you that he probably wouldn't listen. Graves is going to be the closer (a bitter reality I've stated here many, many times--check the archives at http://theredletters.blogspot.com). Yes, there is the real potential for a major Chernobylesque meltdown, but until it happens, Graves gets the ball in the 9th. Period. His numbers are absolutely horrific, but he's what you're going to have deal with. I'm sorry, but there's nothing I can do except say 'don't jump off the roof yet'. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.

Split Decisions

2005-05-03T18:35:00.000-04:00

In recent years, the Reds haven't exactly had a bevy of fantasy-must players. Sure, there are 3 or so every year and a few more who'll help you in deeper leagues, but the Reds (like the White Sox of old) have "won ugly" for a number of years now. In 2005, more than ever though, there are extenuating circumstances that are leaving the Reds with fewer fantasy options than usual. Spring training may have been over for a month now, but there are 3 positions on the diamond where the "starter" isn't actually starting 75% of the time. Of course, as any fantasy owner knows, your "everyday player" doesn't do much damage from the bench. Let's take a look at these splits to see if there will be any change and also see if we can determine who should play.

RF: Austin Kearns/Wily Mo Pena

This is the big daddy. For two guys who are 7th and 9th on the team in ABs, I get more e-mail about this duo than anyone else. It's easy to see why--two players who show quite a bit of promise that start just 3-4 times a week. Miley has played the hot hand--first Kearns from the spring, then Pena later. Then Wily Mo got hurt--back to Kearns. Now Pena starts yesterday. What's next? Unfortunately, more spotty play. I would say Wily Mo probably has more opportunity to win the job outright. He has a higher upside, regardless of how raw he is. You have to wonder how much upside Kearns has left with a 64% contact rate, the result of him missing the ball more year after year. Granted, Pena is hardly better (67%), but he's got rare high-level power and he's healthier.

2B: D'Angelo Jimenez/Ryan Freel

Before the season, because of the economics of baseball ('05 salary: Jimenez, 2.87M; Freel, 405K), I would've told you that Freel had no shot to usurp Jimenez at 2B. With a month in the books now, the differences and trends make it so obvious that Freel should play everyday that Miley and O'Brien may have to make a permanent move. Freel is hitting .319 (this after a .125 week), his Ks and BBs are almost even, his OBP is .439, he's swiped 5 bags and is the fastest guy on the team, and he's really improving with his glove. Jimenez, even with a little misfortune, is only hitting .197, has walked less in than Freel in 24 more ABs, and has an OBP of .288. Yes, Jimenez is younger, but Freel's a sparkplug who is just a better lead off hitter. Watch this closely--Freel may win out.

SS: Rich Aurilia/Felipe Lopez

I don't know why the Reds invited Rich Aurilia to spring training. I get it that he's a vet who's had success. That was 2001 (hitting in front of Bonds). This is 2005. I was a manager of a 20-screen movie theater in 2001. Now, I'm a research editor. Things change. Aurilia was an asset in '01. Now he's not. Things change. I'm not saying Lopez is the Golden Child, mind you. He is Knoblauchian in his ability to take a perfectly routine ground ball and wing it into the dugout. But he's hitting better. Period. And he's 9 years younger. If he'd give up the dream and just hit righty, he'd probably be better off. You get the feeling, though, that Lopez would really have to blow the doors off to get equal or more PT. That leaves him virtually worthless for now.

Griffey Isn't A Fool

I got some mail about Junior after the last column asking if his start should be considered a "fool" or "fool's gold". There was a reason that Junior wasn't included. I think it's probably fairly close to reality. Just like Aurilia, things change, and this is 2005 and this is Griffey as we have to come to know him and embrace him now. His defense, to his credit, has been very good so far this season. But his "diluted" offense now is what I would call the decline of age. Every player gets there. Junior just got there at 35. He's strikes out more, his G/F ratio is at its highest since 1990, and his .280+ days are over. He's could still swat 20 or so, but as much as I like Griffey, his latest medical condition is simply called Father Time.

Bloat, Bloat, Bloat

There really aren't words to shape how the Reds bloatpen makes me feel. The amalgam that comprises 11.25M of the payroll currently sports a 6.01 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, a BB/9 of 4.8, and opponents are hitting .294 against them. I give up--no backhanded joke or verbal malaise will suffice, so I'm just sit quietly and reflect. What happened to the days of Scott Sullivan, Stan Belinda, even Chuck McElroy? Hall of Famers none of them, but at they ate innings effectively and--Got. People. Out. Danny Graves was upset after getting booed off the mound in only his first blown save of the year. The reason for all the boos was that fans were saving them up from the previous 8 saves when he turned their stomaches but stumbled to the save. It's hard to boo after a win, no matter the path to victory.

Soft Tosses

Graves will not be replaced at closer any time soon. Regardless of how you (and I) feel, he still has a 88% save rate. Ramon Ortiz is back in the rotation. Yawn. Two IP, 7 hits, and 6 ER don't exactly do it for me, how about you? Aaron Harang has had 3 superior starts out of 5. Are the 99% or you in mixed leagues who don't own him yet still need starting pitching listening? Are the 6.7% of you in mixed leagues who instead own Eric Milton and his 5.79 ERA and 11 HR in 32.2 IP listening? Inside Ryan Freel's line on 4/30: 2 BB, 3 SB despite an 0-3 day--exactly the kind of potential that shows you why you can use the fantasy versatile Freel. Tough homestand--STL, LA, and SD--but the Reds are 7-4 at home. 3-11 on the road. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.

April Fools?

2005-04-26T18:47:00.000-04:00

At the beginning of the month, as a clever "so-funny-you-forgot-to-laugh" type of joke, I switched my columns on the Reds and Angels pages. Some of you got it, others wrote me concerned e-mails about the unintentional mistake I had made (which concerns me that some of you find my writing so intolerable you can't even make it through 7 paragraphs, but that's another story). Like I attempted to do, are there some Reds who are attempting (even though not intentionally) to fool fantasy owners with their performances? One thing (one of very few) I've learned about fantasy baseball is this--if the calendar says April, things aren't necessarily what they seem. Let's take a look at some Reds and see if their Aprils should be considered "fools" or "fool's gold".

Sean Casey

Casey is fine, and shame on those of you who dropped him. And some of you did, because he's down to 96% in mixed leagues. I brazenly predicted that Casey "could" have all new career highs in '05. I declared him to be a top-5 1B. 70 ABs later, I'm not gonna change that, despite his slow start (you gotta stick by your guns, right?). I will say there are a few things to be worried about from early returns. Casey's G/F ratio is at a career high (2.00) right now, after being at a career low in '04 (1.33). Hard to hit HRs when you're keeping it on the ground like that. Also, so far he's fanned 10 times in 70 ABs. That could be catching from his teammates. Verdict? Casey is FOOLING you. The average and RBI are coming, but with only 3 XBH, that career high in HRs might not.

Joe Randa

We go across the diamond to the man who could've been the "new Mayor" after the first week. Randa homered 3 times in the first 4 games and his stock skyrocketed. He was hitting .406 on 4/15 and fans said, "Could he be reborn in Cincy?" Since hitting HR #4 on 4/17, he's had 2 hits, accounting for all of his .091 AVG this past week. We've seen the high and the low and the truth, as usual, lies somewhere in between. I mentioned that Randa could provide double-digit HRs in the preseason, but that everything else was average. I even gave him a trite, handy little nickname--Average Joe. You'll do well to remember that. Randa will hit better than his current .266 and he'll jack 15 or so, but his April is FOOL'S GOLD. He's still toward the bottom of NL 3B.

Aaron Harang

Aaron Harang has had one forgettable start against 3 really good ones. I mentioned that this could be Cincinnati's best pitcher this year and he's done absolutely nothing to prove me wrong so far. He did get touched up by STL (5 ER, 6 IP), and did give up 3 in 6 IP to HOU, but he fanned 8 Astros, and the pen blew his lead. His K/9 is 7.8 and he's gotten through the 6th inning in all of his starts. His BB/9 is a little high (3.7), but history says that will come down and his .221 OBA is legit and not deflated by good luck (29% hit rate). Harang's 1-1 record is FOOLING you--thankfully his 3.70 ERA is not. Harang is 27, developing, and unlike a lot of young pitchers, doesn't have a lot of innings on his arm. The 2.2% owned in mixed leagues will only last so long.

Danny Graves

This should be fairly obvious and you really don't need me to tell you, but Danny Graves is escaping just about every save by the hair of his chinny-chin-chin. If you hear he's is playing the lotto, follow him and play the exact same numbers. His last 6 outings (all save situations), he's given up at least 1 hit in all of them and at least 1 run in 4 of them. He's struck out 2 batters in 8.1 IP while walking 7. Are you kidding me? Graves has never had closer numbers, but if this continues (and to some degree, it will), this could be the year for a major meltdown (and not a good time because I don't see the Reds exercising his mutual option for '06). If you can find someone who is desperate for saves in your league (and someone always is), deal Graves because his April is FOOL'S GOLD.

The Red Cross

Ramon Ortiz is slated to appear in a rehab start for the Class A Sarasota Reds today. If all goes well, he'll have a bullpen session on Thursday in Milwaukee with the team. He's eligible to return, so as soon as he's ready he'll be back. Those of you in NL leagues and the 0.2% of you in mixed leagues who insist on rostering him have a light at the end of your tunnel. Wily Mo Pena is responding well to treatment on his quad, according to team trainer Mark Mann. "He's not quite 100%," Mann said, according to the team website, but I think we can expect him back soon. Luke Hudson is progressing well in rehab although there's still no timetable for him to start pitching in minor league games. He was slated to throw a simulated game on Monday, but no word yet on how that went.

Freel Freed? And a New E-Mail!

Will Ryan Freel be picking up regular PT? 6 starts in the last 7 games and a .346 AVG and .414 OBP in that span says that he will. Freel has bottomed out in mixed leagues at 22%. He's stolen 2 bases already and attempted 5. Miley has mentioned that he wants to run more but doesn't have enough speed to do it. Freel could definitely scratch that itch for the Skip. Plus, you're not going to be able to roster many multi-position eligible (2B, 3B, OF) guys with 30+ SB potential and AVG growth potential--unless you own Chone Figgins. Finally, I'll soon be a married man (25 days) and have a new address. My computer, however, is already with my bride-to-be. So, we go from "theredletters" to just redletters@insightbb.com. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to those Red Letters.

Good Weekend…Mostly

2005-04-19T15:56:00.000-04:00

After losing 12 in a row to Houston, the Reds pulled off back-to-back wins against them on Saturday and Sunday to win the series--and that's impressive. No, the 'Stros didn't have Berkman. Or Beltran. No, Roger Clemens didn't pitch in the series. But Eric Milton outpitched Andy Pettitte and Aaron Harang threw another solid start. And the Astros do have a guy named Jason Lane--who is making it harder for casual fans that assume he's just another young outfielder to ignore his talent. Most of you reading this hopefully already know that. But the Astros will be in the mix this year--regardless of those who think they're not very good. Oh, yeah, I said "mostly" a good weekend. Friday's game tickets were a birthday present. An 11-2 drubbing wasn't what I wished for.

Air Pena

Sunday's flight was a 498-footer non-stop to the upper deck bleacher area, the second longest in the history of the Great American Terminal. Our pilot, Wily Mo, certainly made his case for more PT as he took a round trip around the bases for the third time in five starts. He's hitting .327 against LHP since the start of last year, so you have to think he'll be in there some against southpaws. He also homers 1 out of every 12 ABs against them too. Miley told the Dayton Daily News that he tends to go with the hot hand--and there are none hotter than Wily Mo right now. If you've got him, play him while you can. Hopefully soon the Reds will give him the chance to play regularly like so many of us would like to see. Do be aware of the potential AVG anchor if he does cool (0 BB, 8 K).

Around the Rotation

We're starting with Aaron Harang. If you're scoring at home, that's 2 of 3 solid starts for AH (if you're not scoring at home, I am, so don't worry). 8 Ks in 6 IP, 3 ER and he left the Reds with a solid opportunity to win until the minute a reliever stepped out of the bullpen (more on that later). He did give up a bomb to Jason Lane, but most of his pitches looked good and his stamina already looks better this year in April than it did all of last year. He didn't even average 6 IP a start last year and thus far has completed the 6th in all 3 starts. Bundles of wins might be tough without getting through the 7th, but he's heading in the right direction. One hurler who's heading the opposite direction is Ramon Ortiz, who was DLed retro to 4/9. He'll missed Monday's start and will miss Saturday's as well.

His replacement is Matt Belisle, who's had 1 impressive start and one horrid one. His good one in St. Louis was uncharacteristic of his minor league work, but his control is very good and if he keeps fooling hitters, he can definitely be a serviceable sub for Ortiz. He had a bit of a rough year in Louisville last year, so hold off thinking he may be a diamond in the rough. He's green, and has shown little that suggests star starter. Someone who was given that status (at least by contract numbers) was Eric Milton, who recorded his first good start of the year after tanking in his first 2 outings. Most impressive about it was that he didn't allow any HRs. Unfortunately, one start does mean he's turned around 7 years of gopheritis. His G/F ratio on Saturday was still well below 1.0.

The 6(Hundred)th Man

Now that every other player on every other roster in Major League Baseball has seen action this year, Brandon Claussen will finally get his turn Tuesday night against the Cubs. He'll get the start--against Mark Prior. How's that for luck? Anyway, Claussen was an intriguing--and the most potentially rewarding--piece of the Aaron Boone to the Yankees deal back in 2003. Since arm surgery in 2002, he's slowly made his way back to the status of pitching prospect. His problem now is the same as it was before the surgery--walks. As in too many (4.8 BB/9). His minor numbers last year weren't much better. His '05 spring numbers were down, but his Ks were way down as well. Bottom line--he's a lefty with decent potential. Watch his BBs numbers starting tomorrow night to see how to proceed.

The BloatPen

I actually consulted a thesaurus to find the word with exactly the kind of feeling this collective of relievers exudes. I settled on bloat, but if the 4.85 ERA continues along with the .800 opponent OPS, I may go back for something much worse. I'll hold back somewhat because we're only 12 games in, but as I've said before, the new Reds BloatPen has the potential to be the worst in years. Only Wagner has offered any value through the first 2 weeks, and he's been super. Danny Graves' 5 blundering saves (and 1 vulture win) don't count as value where I'm concerned because he's struck out 1 batter and he's surrendered a hit an inning. The best thing I can say about this pen for now is that it will do wonders for Rolaids stockholders. Outside of Wagner, waive accordingly.

Hitting Against the Kitchen Sink

Here's something--the Reds have already faced Pedro Martinez, Roger Clemens, Tom Glavine (even though he's not the same Glavine), Andy Pettitte, and Mark Mulder, Kerry Wood and Roy Oswalt (twice). Who do they get to finish April? Mark Prior, Dontrelle Willis, Josh Beckett, Carlos Zambrano, and Greg Maddux are all on the list. Maybe that .257 team average and 4.5 runs/game isn't as bad as it looks. Twelve of the next 15 for Cincinnati are against divisional foes, so coming out of this stretch above .500 would put the Reds in the race for the time being. Something tells me the BloatPen could figure heavily in that equation. Here's my equation--less relievers, more wins. Either that or Air Pena will have to start daily flights. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.

What's in a Letter?

2005-04-13T19:32:00.000-04:00

There's one particular letter that keeps popping up in Reds box scores and also their philosophies. It's a letter that has come to take on a very negative connotation, at least from where I'm sitting. That letter--the one that has spelled much of the Reds' doom over the last few years and will most likely continue to give them fits--is the letter K. K as in 3849 Reds batters fanning over the last 3 years (MLB's most in '03 & '04). K as in 63 already in '05 in just 9 games. K as in only 1 lineup regular who has exceptional contact % (Casey at 94). There are 5 regulars who whiffed at least once every 4 ABs in '04. That's awful. Not that this is an official stat, but the Reds had the lowest K Diff (pitcher Ks-hitter Ks=K Diff) in the majors in '04 by over 100 with a negative (-343).

Does that mean anything? Well, 3 of the top 7 in that category made the playoffs. It does mean that it's very hard for them to score a lot of runs because their AVG will be so low (12th, 15th, and 13th 2002-04). This offense, which is supposed to be so good, hasn't finished above 10th in runs scored in the NL in that same span. Everyone knows about Adam Dunn's new K record, but the Reds had 4 players in the top 40 in strikeouts last year--more than any team in the NL. This is a serious problem and until we see a downward trend in the whiffs, the offensive woes should continue. That means that most players in the lineup will be an AVG drag for you. It wouldn't surprise me if the only Reds who end up with an AVG above league average (.270) are Casey, Randa, and maybe Jimenez.

So that's bad. It doesn’t end there. Another reason Reds fans (and fantasy owners) should hate the letter K is because of the pitching philosophy they herald. Pitching coach Don Gullett and manager Dave Miley would have us believe that mowing the opposing lineup down really isn't that big a deal. Any casual Reds fan has heard by now of the "pitch to contact" philosophy. The Reds have finished no higher than 12th in the NL in both K/BB and BBs the last 3 seasons, and Gullett (while one of the best pitching coaches there is) decided it would be a good idea to just throw to the hitters, let them put it in play, and get them out instead of walking everyone who showed up at the plate with a stick. This, in principle, is not all bad. In practice, it won't work. Here's why.

MLB K/9 rates and the corresponding average ERA (courtesy of Baseball HQ): 0.0-3.9 (4.97), 4.0-4.9 (4.75), 5.0-5.9 (4.47), 6.0-6.9 (4.32), 7.0-7.9 (4.16), 8.0-8.9 (3.87), 9.0+ (3.22). This makes the obvious statement that the more batters you keep from hitting the ball, the better your ERA will be. The Reds shouldn't be pitching to contact. Batters who never strike out would hit around .300 consistently. Voros McCracken has done research on that in the past with hit rate. The good news of all this is that the Reds have several starters who can sit hitters down at a good rate (Milton, Harang, Claussen, and Hudson). The bad news is that 3 of those 4 have other issues. Bottom line--next time you hear someone talking about "pitching to contact", politely tell them to shut up.

Pitching Woes

The rotation is having both physical and statistical woes. First, Ramon Ortiz was scratched from his start on Wednesday because his stiffness in this groin and thigh. The Reds will give him a little time off to make sure it doesn't get worse. For the 0.3 percent of you who own him, this is another reminder the waive button is usually at the bottom of the page. The statistical woes (although not at all unexpected) belong to Eric Milton. That's 2 starts, 9.2 IP, 5 HR. That outlandish rate won't continue--but it will serve as an early warning that this will be a problem all year. If you don't mind the ERA spike, he'll give you the Ks and 10-12 wins. And if you'd like to dispute my prediction of 35 HRs, you can find me behind the fence during Milton's starts shagging flies.

Outlandish Outfield?

Sports Illustrated recently ranked the Cincinnati Reds trio of Dunn, Griffey, and Kearns as the 2nd best OF in the majors behind the Los Angeles Angels (Anderson, Finley, and Guerrero). Does that hold water? As long as you don't count AVG. Griffey's off to a good start, showing what he can do when he's healthy--although 0 HR and 2 BB vs. 8 K show that the .292 AVG isn't a good as it looks. Adam Dunn--.185 AVG, 2 BB, 10 K. Austin Kearns--0 HR, .227, 3 BB, 8 K. Also, look at some RAR (runs above replacement) levels from the 3 primary outfielders for the following teams--LA Angels 74.5; Boston 78.0; and Cincinnati 20.9. With totals like that, it's hard to argue that the Reds OF is anywhere near 2nd place.

Division Stretch Continues

The Reds return home for 3 against Houston, 2 with Chicago, and 2 with Pittsburgh. Brandon Claussen will get his first start against those Cubs. Wait until he proves he can lower his BB total before you consider a spot start. With a 1-4 road trip, the Reds could use a solid homestand to avoid digging a hole in the division this early in April. Keep riding Harang despite the hiccup against St. Louis. Casey will come around. Yeah, he's only walked once, but with only 4 Ks, he is making solid contact. The hits will come soon. A 3-4 game against the Cards today is a good start. Freel has gotten on base in 8 of his first 15 plate appearances. He's been caught stealing 3 times, but 30 SBs don't seem a stretch with a good OBP. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.

Step Right Up and Sweep the Mets

2005-04-08T17:54:00.000-04:00

Okay, who had the Reds sweeping the "New Mets"? Anyone? Bueller? Well, regardless of your level of faith and expectation for this year's Cincinnati squad, it was an impressive three games and while the Mets big offseason grabs shined (Beltran 5-13, HR, 3 RBI; Pedro 6 IP, 12 K, 2 BB), plenty of other Mets didn't (Glavine, Looper, DeJean). So, with the first 3-0 start since the Reds went wire-to-wire in 1990 under their belts, can Cincy fans expect another 91-71 regular season followed by a 6th world championship? Don't look at me--I didn't think they could beat the Mets 3 in a row. But after taking in the series, there were sure a lot of things to like.

Randa-Lamma-Ham-Dam

The big story is, of course, Randa. Chicks may dig the long ball but so does the media. Miley mentioned that Sean Casey may have to forfeit his "Mayor" nickname. Randa isn't quite so sure. "Nobody recognized me," he told the Dayton Daily News, when asked if he'd been offered any free meals by fans for his heroics. Randa's numbers after 3 games have him looking like he's re-emerged. Not so fast. His career HR high is 16 and I'd view that as a ceiling this year. Remember his career SLG% is .426, so he's not going to discover a power stroke at 35. He can still hit for a decent average, but the reason for this surge could lie in his increased FB% (up to 41). We all know that GABP is a place where lazy flies become dingers. Still, don't get too excited about Joe.

Ken Griffey is Not an Anti-Dentite

But he's already missed game #1. Griffey didn't play in Thursday's series finale because of what Miley called a "dental problem, a crown problem". What? His appointment was in the early morning. The game was at 12:35. Oral surgery or a really slow dentist? Whatley! I realize this is a small thing, but here's a guy who's had every leg injury (and re-injury) known to man in the last 4 seasons, and he can't even make it through the first series without popping a tooth? Look, I'm not poking fun--teeth problems hurt. I've had several teeth pulled (wisdom included, which explains my lack of knowledge). But if fantasy owners have to start worrying about Griffey's teeth, then I'm betting we're gonna see white flags everywhere. What's more painful? He's started 4-7.

Aaron Won't Be Harang-ing Around the FA List

Let's take a look at the box score--6 IP, 1 H, 5 K, 3 BB, 0 ER--and win numero uno. Other than, say, more walks than you'd like to see, there was nothing not to like about Harang's first trip to the mound. Before his start, he was owned in a grand total of 0% of mixed leagues. With more starts like Thursday's, that will change fast. In the Reds Rotation Preview (Vol. 3 at The Red Letters--theredletters.blogspot.com), I mentioned that Harang could have the best year of any starter on the team, including Milton. He did nothing to prove me wrong yesterday, looking solid on almost every count. He's not going to take the fantasy world by storm, but if you need pitching, don't get in late on Harang. He won't be at 0% that much longer.

A Huge Disappointment

Like a lot of Reds fans, Ryan Freel has been a favorite of mine since he first saw action in 2003. On Monday night, what came as a huge surprise to myself--and probably many others--soon turned to huge disappointment. Freel was arrested for DUI and other related charges. Freel has done all the right things so far--apologized, taken full responsibility, and basically not acted like an entitled athlete through the process. I have no sympathy for those who get behind the wheel and drive. Zero. It is a bad choice that can alter lives forever. While he should be forgiven, this is the kind of thing that can never happen again--and I'm sure O'Brien and Miley told him as much. As far as PT is concerned, it shouldn't change things. He went 0-1 with 2 BB, 1 R, and 1 RBI on Thursday.

Striking Out at the Plate, But Not on the Scoreboard

The last 2 seasons in Major League Baseball has seen a team strike out 16+ times at the plate yet still manage to win the game 11 times. Five of those 11 times the team was the Cincinnati Reds. This doesn't appear to be changing any time soon. Pedro whiffed 12 Reds and the bullpen fanned 4 more in the Reds comeback 7-6 Opening Day win. There really isn't anyone outside of Casey and maybe Randa who will make better than average contact, so it's easy to see the Reds whiffing a lot of rallies away. Also, if you've got a good K pitcher against the Reds, make sure he's active. Dunn has fanned in 7 of 11 ABs so far, with only 1 walk. That's the worst of the worst, but the rest of the team doesn't look much better. They've led the majors in Ks the last 2 years. Expect a 3-peat.

Houston, St. Louis, and Pitching to Contact

The Reds now head out on a 5-game, 2-city road trip, both foes in the division. The Houston pitching matchups don't favor the Reds to say the least. But then, facing Clemens and Oswalt in a 3-game series doesn't really favor anyone (except the Astros). The good news is that the Houston offense is much weaker than last year's right now. The bad news is that they'll be better than most think. St. Louis is still the team to beat in the NL Central though. Two fun games at Busch on tap. Also, next time, we'll look at the now well-known "pitch to contact" philosophy of pitching coach Don Gullett and manager Dave Miley. Let me say that the approach is misguided at best. I'll tell you why. Until then, I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.

Draft/Season Preview Vol. 4

2005-04-01T02:13:00.000-05:00

I want to play a little word association with you today. Angel food cake--good. Yellow snow angels--bad. An Angel getting its wings--good. Not drafting at least one Angel reliever--bad. Sure, saying that is not exactly going out on a limb, but look at these numbers for the 2004 season: 3.47 ERA (2nd), 1.30 WHIP (1st), .671 opponent OPS (1st), 9.07 K/9 (1st), and a 2.66 (!) K/BB ratio (easily 1st). Even better--the best arms from that stellar performance are back. We'll take a look at those that can help your fantasy roster (basically every one in uniform). Troy Percival, Ramon Ortiz, and Ben Weber aren't back this year, but with this group remaining, they definitely won't miss a beat.

K-Rod

Basically whatever good thing you want to say about Francisco Rodriguez won't be an overstatement. He's just 23 this year and already among the elite in baseball when it comes to guys outta the pen. He's the new closer, and if you want a guy who'll absolutely slam the door just about every time out, he's your guy. He sported a filthy 13.2 K/9 last season, posted a 1.82 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and righties only managed an emaciated .127 AVG off of him. His slider is so sick Bengie Molina probably ought to carry a gag bag with him because opposing batters will probably need it. Troy Percival has posted 27 or more saves the last 9 years. 2005 will be year #1 in a long string for Future King K-Rod. BOTTOM LINE: I know Rivera's is the King of Relievers, but K-Rod is his prince and heir.

Brendan Donnelly

Last year was somewhat muted for Donnelly, with him only throwing 42 innings due to a freak batting practice accident that left him out for a good part of the season. This spring, he appears healthy (with a sub 2.00 ERA and 10 K in 10.1 IP) and there are no limits to how low he can go in the ERA and WHIP categories. He'd close on 20 of the 30 teams in baseball, but if your league counts holds (and one of mine does for some reason), Donnelly will make you very happy. His 12.0 K/9 and .223 OBA tell you all you need to know. If you can possibly get BD (and middle relievers usually come pretty cheap), then he's about as good as they get. BOTTOM LINE: I can't think of any reason to not recommend him. He looks that good.

Scot Shields

If Dick Vitale worked MLB, he'd probably say something like, "He's Mr. Versatility, Baby! Shields can do it all! Start! Relieve! Run the scoreboard! He's a Rolls Roycer, Baby!" He's also durable, throwing 100+ the last 2 seasons, with stellar numbers across the board. His K/BB has been at least 2.6 the last 4 seasons and he doesn't give up the long ball. You know something else? He's improving. 2005 could be his best year yet. He recently had a shin splint that was rediagnosed as a stress reaction, which is the only cause for concern for Shields. If he stays healthy, I can totally see another sub 3.00 ERA with plenty of guys heading back to the dugout frustrated (OBA under .250 last 3 seasons). BOTTOM LINE: He's scintillating, sensational, and totally rosterable.

Kevin Gregg

KG is probably the number 4 option in the Halo pen and he's super. He keeps the ball in the park very well (0.6 HR/9) and his K/BB last season was 3.0. He had quite a bit of bad luck and still posted a decent 4.23 ERA. That should very easily be the in the 3's in 2005. Gregg has used his time in the minors wisely, improving and maturing and this year he'll be 26 and looks primed to begin a lengthy career as a solid middle reliever and even has starting potential in a pinch. It's appears from his minor league numbers that he's better suited for relief, and I wouldn't be the least bit shy about drafting him. Scioscia will use him often (89 IP in '04). BOTTOM LINE: I've drafted him twice already, and he's a perfect option for vulture wins and ERA and K success.

Estaban Yan/Matt Hensley

There are so many pens that would want a Yan for a #5. He's got a solid 7.0+ K/9, he keeps the ball on the ground, and while he can walk a few too many from time to time, he finished the year for the first time in the last 5 with a HR/9 under 1.0. You can view that 2 ways--as a fluke or as improvement. With a flyball % that has dropped from 40 to 31 and a groundball % that's gone from 41 to 51 from '02-'04, it certainly looks like improvement is the right assumption. He can help and will be easy to get. Hensley's just the opposite--he can't keep anywhere near this side of the fence. He's got the talent, but he's also got a shoulder problem. If it needs surgery, keep him in mind for later. BOTTOM LINE: It sounds redundant, but a healthy Yan and Hensley can help you.

What's Going On Here?

Reds fans that aren't confused by this point (or completely incensed that a team can possibly have this good of a bullpen), should take heart. APRIL FOOLS. Your final Preview volume is over at Inside the Halo (yeah, a lame gag, but I ran out of stink bombs and silly string). That'll wrap up the 4 volumes of the Preview, which can be viewed (IF, OF, rotation, and bullpen) at theredletters.blogspot.com. I'm excited to be with you for a 2nd season of Reds baseball. The next column will be the first of the regular season, and the on-field action and your inquiries to theredletters@insightbb.com will determine its content (although I'll have the obligatory postseason picks next time as well). For now, let's play ball! I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters (well, kinda).

Draft/Season Preview Vol. 3

2005-03-26T12:34:00.000-05:00

Let's look at some numbers. We don't have Sesame Street's Count or any fancy jingles, but let's look anyway. How about these three? 5.23. Uh, what was the 2004 Reds starting pitching ERA? Yes! Okay, I'll take "Rotations Only Marginally Better Than the Colorado Rockies" for $400, please. The answer: 1.49. I know! What was ’04 Reds rotation WHIP? Yes. Uh…$600. The answer: .832. Matt again. What was ’04 Reds rotation opponent OPS? Exactly! The board is yours!…Okay, I'm no Ken Jennings, but those questions were easy--and sad. Is there anyone who can put a stop to opponents bombing out the Ohio River marine life? There are old & new names in the rotation. Can the results be any different or are the Reds in Jeopardy (yeah, yeah)? Let's take a look at the category:

$200: Paul Wilson

Who is the Reds Opening Day starter? Wilson is indeed facing off against Pedro and the Mets on 4/4, coming off a career high in wins (11) and a career low in ERA in years with 100+ IP (4.36). Will he improve again? Can he help anchor this shaky rotation? The good news is his work ethic is unquestionable. He works meat off the bone preparing for the mound. His K/9 did rise in '04 (5.7) and he's always had slightly better than average control. The bad news is this--he's had real trouble the last 4 seasons keeping the ball in the yard (1.3 HR/9 '01-'04). Also, even with improvement, his skills are just enough to get the job done but not enough to be a #1, #2, or maybe even a #3. BOTTOM LINE: A definite gamer, but for a guy who's probably at his peak, he's remarkably bland. I'd pass.

$400: Eric Milton

Who is the Reds “big-name” $$$ free agent who could do very well but will do very little to save those fishies in the Ohio (In reality, it would take a prodigious 550+ blast to even ruffle any gills, but Adam Dunn has bounced one in). I opposed this signing earlier and while I won't really change my tune, Milton does have the potential to have a pretty good year. He's gonna give up at least 30 HRs doing it, but if they're mostly solo, who knows? His K/9 is solid (7.2), but his control was the worst it's been since his rookie season. Granted, it was better in the 2nd half (4.1 vs. 2.8 BB/9). BOTTOM LINE: He just throws too many flyballs. That's won't work at GABP, just as it didn't in Philly. He's worthy of filling the back end of you rotation--but be ready for the moon shots.

$600: Ramon Ortiz

Who is the overpaid starter most likely to end up pitching out of the bullpen? Honestly, I can see the Milton signing. He's got game, he just can't keep the ball in the yard. But to just give Ortiz a free pass into the rotation (and pay him 3.55 mil) is not, uh, fiscally responsible. I would get laughed at if I bought a $200 ham sandwich, but Reds fans won't be laughing if pricey Ortiz posts another 5.47 ERA as a starter as he did in for the Angels in '04. Reliever ERA? 2.76. More K/9 out of the pen, less HR/9. Another fly ball pitcher who's had 5 straight years of 1.1-1.7 HR/9 (for reference, 1.1 is average and under 1.0 is what gets it done). BOTTOM LINE: He's a good reliever or a spot starter--NOT a #3. Plus, lefties absolutely mash him (.305 OBA in '04). Stay away.

$800: Aaron Harang

Who is the under-the-radar starter that could end up having the best season of anyone on staff? I like Aaron Harang. He's a horse. He's 27. He's growing into his talents. He only had 4 bad starts all of last year. His flyball % has come down two years in a row. Having to compete for a spot this year, he's got something to prove. He's got 3 years and 58 starts under his belt now. Sure, it's a small sample, but he's got a 3.18 ERA with 16 K/2 BB this spring in 22.2 IP. There's a lot to like. The caveat? 1.5 HR/9 in '04. 4 HR given up this spring. He (like the others) has got to keep the ball in the park. BOTTOM LINE: Harang has the skills. Period. If he can continue to lower his flyball %, HRs should drop and watch out. He'll be there late and could reap rewards.

$1000: DAILY DOUBLE! Josh Hancock and Brandon Claussen

Luke Hudson will start on the DL, so I'm skipping him for now. Hancock is 27 like Harang, and I know he went 5-1 down the stretch last year, but drafting this H might cause fantasy roster irritation that would leave you in need of Preparation H. During that '04 stint, his K was 5.0 and it has dropped at every new level to which Hancock has been promoted. Claussen, like Hancock, has seen his K/9 drop every year until last when he was coming off arm surgery, but that time out put him behind in development and he needs more time to mature. Right now he walks way too many and has an unseemly tendency to get rocked. BOTTOM LINE: Leave these guys alone for now, but know that Claussen could be a certifiable target within 2 years. Right now, he's got some work to do.

Spring Notes and Vol. 4

Wily Mo Pena has forgotten to bring his jersey to the last 2 road games, but he's recalling how to rake, going 8 for his last 14. Dunn has only whiffed 9 of 49 ABs this spring (78 ct%), and while that's marked improvement, wait to see it in the season to give it any legitimacy. Joe Randa has 3 bombs and 3 doubles, slugging .548. That's good to hear, but remember that he hasn't slugged higher than .452 since ‘99. Don't expect it to last, though his flyball % was the highest it's been since ‘99 also. The last volume of your Preview will take a look at the bullpen, which has the potential to be the Cincy's worst in years, but even so there still a couple of high risk/decent rewards hurlers available. And don't forget vulture wins! I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.

Draft/Season Preview Vol. 2

2005-03-22T00:01:00.000-05:00

As the season draws near, the Reds will make more cuts from their roster number of 41 on Tuesday, according to the team's official website, leaving them another round of cuts on March 30, with the final 25-man roster set by April 2. For now, though, they spend this week playing all AL East opponents except one (FRI @ Cleveland in Winter Haven). That includes World Champ Boston on Tuesday and the Yanks on Wednesday. We'll get to spring performance a little later, but let's break down the outfield and see what to look for and who can help you this year on your fantasy roster. For any latecomers to the infield preview, it's located at The Red Letters (theredletters.blogspot.com). You can reach me at theredletters@insightbb.com for any Reds-related inquiries.

LF: Adam Dunn

Dunn is easily the most bankable choice here and it's a good bank to do business with. Here's a flyball guy (with patience) in a flyball park who, over his 4-year career, has homered, walked, or whiffed in 49% of his total ABs. If you're looking for power, he's your guy. For obvious reasons (as in breaking the single-season K record last season with 195), he isn't going to provide an AVG boost for your team though. He and batting coach Chris Chambliss have been working on contact and so far this spring the results have been encouraging. But 40 ABs is also a small sample size, so wait until we see some more consistentcy at the plate. BOTTOM LINE: The power is for real (and he's only 25), so HR ceiling is way up there. All those whiffs again could make repeat 100 RBI difficult though.

CF: Ken Griffey

I really wish I could type Junior into another position (one that would make another injury less probable), but the Reds--or Griffey--won't have it otherwise. So, hold one moment while I get out the broken record: "Griffey's value is directly tied into his health. However, Griffey says he feels great and is 100% healthy heading into the season." The last, of course, is probably true, but the chances of him getting hurt at some point? I would say greater than most. If healthy, he still can produce quality numbers (30+ HR, 90+ RBI, but the average probably wouldn't top .265), but it's up to you whether or not you bet on good health. BOTTOM LINE: If you don't mind big risk, get him late--he'll play when healthy. But--how much will that be?

RF: Austin Kearns

Kearns, like Griffey and Dunn, has plenty of power to throw around. But again, there's the health issue. He appears more healed than Griffey this spring and it's a good gamble to say he's pretty much 100%. What does that mean with his history? He's got the ability to nail 30, but hitting over .270? Probably not. His contact % has dropped every year so far, down to 70% (yeesh) in ‘04 in limited duty. I can see the Reds whiffing away a lot of rallies this season unless these 3 start getting the bat on the ball more. Also, AK's career G/F ratio is 1.46--a little high for a 30+ bomber. BOTTOM LINE: At 24, there is plenty of time for him to be molded into a hitter that fits his abilities. But the risk is all yours if you're hoping that happens in '05. Know this though--he CAN hit.

OF 3A: Wily Mo Pena

With Kearns's hot spring and Wily Mo's StruggleFest, trade rumors have begun to surface again. GM Danny Boy said exactly what everyone was thinking though when asked about it. "[You know we have Kearns and Griffey, right? You know that they've spent 476 days on the DL the last 3 years, right?]" (paraphrased loosely by author). Wily Mo will stay and play fairly regularly early on, of that you can be sure. But like the rest, he's got a serious case of the whiffs (0.20 BB/K ratio). The Reds OF is All-World potential, but little on results (outside of King Kong Dunn) and Pena is no different. BOTTOM LINE: His patience is at a career low, he won't hit for AVG, but when he makes contact, flames trail the ball. He, too, though, hits a lot of grounders for a power guy.

OF: Jose Oquendo, er, Ryan Freel

Freel is "technically" an outfielder, but like '04, will probably see much of his time on the dirt. He's a speed demon and a popular draft pick with his 37 swipes (think NL and Chone Figgins). He's a man-with-no-spot-horse-with-no-name kinda guy. He still managed to net 143 games last season, so taking him for a speed jolt is not silly despite his lack of a position. That also makes him attractive for the ability to plug him in anywhere. Here's an interesting note--.369 OBP in the 2nd half last year, tops on the team and 6th in NL Central. Griffey, Dunn, Kearns, Casey need people to drive in and Freel will fit the bill. BOTTOM LINE: Slight knock for PT issues, but he'll get his swings, and most importantly his swipes, as long as that OBP was growth and not a fluke.

Spring Notes and Vol. 3

Felipe Lopez has stolen 3 bags in spring, trying to make himself remotely valuable, but 12 games and 35 ABs do not a turnaround make. Aaron Harang, competing for the 4 or 5 rotation hole, has posted 13 K and only 2 BB in 17.2 IP thus far. He's been taken yard 4 times, but the WHIP is 1.12. Have him and your radar (especially if he starts keeping it in the yard). Look for Brandon Claussen to get the 5 spot. BC is out of options and with Luke Hudson down combined with a solid spring, he'll probably get the nod. Next, we'll profile the rotation. I've gotten some mail on my lack of enthusiasm for the starters. If you're one who doesn't like bad news, wear a helmet because there really is some good news among the hailstorm. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.

2005 Draft/Season Preview

2005-03-15T17:19:00.000-05:00

The Ides of March means spring training is in full swing. Some players have already received their minor league assignments as the seasons draws near, and some fantasy players have already participated in their first draft. I had my first one this past Saturday, picking up Sean Casey in the late single digit rounds as my back up to Albert Pujols, whom I kept from last year. This could turn out to be the best 1B tandem I've ever had. So--the question you're here to answer is which Reds should you add to your roster this season and when? This year's draft preview will start in the infield and we'll stick to the basics--what to expect, where they would rank by their position, but not where to draft them. That, my friends, is simply up to you. (NOTE: All analysis assumes good health.)

1B: Sean Casey, The Mayor

Far and away the best draft target in the IF. Casey finished '04 with a bunch of 2's--his 2nd highest marks in AVG, HR, R, and hits. All previous career highs came in '99. So, since it's been a while, can we expect the same kind of production again? Yes. He could have all new career highs this fall. Ks were at a career low last year (94% contact--that's amazing), his G/F ratio was at a career low as well (flyballs at GABP turn into HRs), and 15 of his 24 bombs came on the road. Almost 1 in 4 balls off his bat were line drives (compared to the MLB avg. of about 1 in 6). He hit over .300 against LHP and RHP for the first time in the last 5 years as well. BOTTOM LINE: NL, I'd pick only Pujols and Helton higher. MLB: Only add Ortiz and Teixiera to that. Top 5 1B overall.

2B: D'Angelo Jimenez

Jimenez, whom I heard one fan address him last year as DANG-uh-low, JIMMY-nez (a pronunciation which all her companions agreed with), isn't quite as elite at 2B. However, DJ isn't a guy that's going to hurt your squad either. His patience (13 bb%) has increased consistently, and he's having more success now from the left side (.281 in '04 against RHP). 13 was also a career high in SB last year and at age 27, he's got plenty of speed left on a team that needs it. If you don't expect a uptick in AVG (.270), this is a guy whose OBP will be around .350 so he’ll have an opportunity to swipe some bags. BOTTOM LINE: Barely ML top 15, but the difference between him and a name like Todd Walker (who'll go much earlier) is very marginal. He could hit double-digit HR and will be available late.

SS: Rich Aurilia/Felipe Lopez

It's easy to cover the SS position (even with 2 names) in a succinct manner because to put it just that way, you don't want anything the Reds have to offer. Period. If you've rostered one of these two, something obviously went wrong on draft day (or any day, for that matter). For the sake of being thorough, however, I will say that if there's any potential at all at this position, it's from Lopez, who is 25 this season, who actually has a little pop in that bat, but it's just a little and he's never hit over .226 against RHP, which may say even more. Barry Larkin, who made the All-Star team (and only $700K) in his final season with the Reds, would've probably come back about as cheap but was pushed out the door. Nice move. BOTTOM LINE: Avoid at all costs.

3B: Joe Randa

Speaking of Barry Larkin--why the Reds would decline to bring him back yet spend over 2 mil on a guy who isn't much younger is beyond me. Yes, Larkin doesn't play 3B, but Ryan Freel can. No, Freel's D wasn't great at the spot, but he did show significant range there (3.42 Rng). Lopez had over 200 innings there as well. Not sure why the Reds spent this money on Randa, and you shouldn't spend a pick on him either. Previously a line drive machine, his LD% dropped from 25 to 19 last year. He does get the ball into the air (1.01 G/F), but everything else is average. Really, really average. BOTTOM LINE: Worst Opening Day 3B option in NL. He may hit double digit HRs, but you can find that in plenty of other places.

C: Jason LaRue

Catcher is usually a weak position in fantasy baseball and 2005 really isn't that different. Thus, it's easier, once out of the top 5 or so, to just pick whoever and get varying degrees of minor production overall as long as that player is getting regular PT. Of the backstops who'll get that regular PT in ‘05, other than Javy Lopez, Jason Varitek, and Jorge Posada, I would put Jason LaRue in the next small group of catchers--if you're just judging power. Overall, he's probably a top 15 C, but power-wise he can help you. AVG? .250--and that's hopeful. No speed. Only NL catcher to whiff 100+ times in '04. OBP could very easily be below .300. BOTTOM LINE: If you need a smidge of extra power, LaRue can give it to you. The only concern is his G/F ratio (1.22), which was up from '03.

Spring Notes and Vol. 2

The next edition will cover the Reds biggest strength--the OF, which could rank as the NL's best in '05. Or be just average. It all depends on health (and how much risk you'll allow on your roster). Spring stats mean very little, but Wily Mo Pena is 5-32 with only 1 XBH so far. Kearn's .429 mark means he'll be firmly in command of RF unless Wily Mo catches fire. Rob Stratton is hitting .320 with 4 HR and 8 RBI in 25 AB, but don’t do anything crazy like draft him late, because while he may crush the ball, he may not even make the team and nothing in his past performances hints he could even hit .200 in the majors. Put it this way--he makes Adam Dunn look like a contact hitter. Don't mention that to your opponents though. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.

The Glass Menagerie

2005-03-08T19:44:00.000-05:00

Austin Kearns has played 144 games in the last two seasons. Anderson Machado's return date is open-ended, but it'll be a while. Ryan Freel is coming off surgery on his knee in November, and Ray Olmedo won't be back until probably mid-May. Then, of course, there is the centerpieces of all centerpieces to this tender troop--Ken Griffey Jr. The Reds are working on a rule exception with MLB that would allow them to put Griffey at DH for home games in the first part of spring training. Treating Griff with kid gloves has become as common as breathing for the Reds' trainers. Mark Mann told the Cincinnati Enquirer that Junior's injury is common among professional water-skiers (I'm not really sure what that means or why it's relevant, so I’ll move on).

I'm all for saving Griffey as much as possible for when it counts. Cincinnati's "multi-million dollar guinea pig" has been more pig than guinea since 2000 and as much room as he takes up on the books, he should be protected with the utmost caution. But I've come up with a great idea that is so easy and apparently so revolutionary that no one’s thought of it (again, I've written this several times already and it's been like shouting at wet paint to dry). Play Junior in RF. What? Right field? Have the rivers turned to blood? Is the supermarket out of milk from the panic? Not quite. And WHY? Why is no one mentioning this? Why is this not an option? Is Griffey too vain? Has Dave Miley's creativity been stunted because he didn't get to color enough in kindergarten?

This isn’t uncommon on other teams. A guy is a little gimpy (or a little old), you move him away from center field so he doesn't have to jaunt all over the place chasing down flies, and he's moved to left or right--or wherever. Couldn't this have been tried before? Since 2000, Junior has played a grand total of two games in right field and one in left. What is happening here? Wily Mo can play center. Gold glover? No, but he can do well enough. Austin Kearns has even played 47 games in center with just 1 error. I've said it before and I'll say it again--this move should've been made long ago. The Cincinnati Enquirer referred to the Reds protecting Griffey as if he's Fort Knox's gold. That's a harrowing comparison because Fort Knox actually has very little gold left.

Always Needing a Good Laugh

Scanning the Reds official site, I found a recent column of mailbag questions from Reds fans to MLB.com writer Todd Lorenz (who has done a solid job with the gig). Someone named "Tyler P." asked, "Do the Reds have the potential for the best bullpen in baseball?" First, there was no word on whether Tyler takes any medication or whether he was late in taking said medication. When I came to later, recovering from laughing myself into unconsciousness, I figured I'd head off any speculation from any of my readers (and protect myself from subsequent potentially dangerous laughing spells) by saying that if you can manage to own zero Reds relievers this season, you're probably going to be a leg up on everyone else in your division. Worst? No. Best? That's just funny.

Somebody Needs a Chip on Their Shoulder

I'm worried. Worried that the Reds welcomed in Ramon Ortiz with arms wide open. Bad idea. Ortiz pitched his best ball last year when he was scratching and clawing for innings and fighting for PT. After a borderline year, he's given a free pass into the rotation when a guy like Aaron Harang has to "compete" for a spot. I'm not worried about that. Harang will show that he's very deserving--as he did in his first two innings of the spring--perfect and 3K. Ortiz's first outing? 3 IP = 3 R. As just about everyone in the Star Wars saga has said at some point during the story, "I've got a bad feeling about this."

Early Spring Notes

Austin Kearns is 4 for his first 10, with 3 doubles and a bomb. Future 3B Edwin Encarnacion is 5-11 with a SB. On the mound, Eric Milton allowed 6 hits and 3 runs in his first two innings of work. Ben Weber--2 IP, 4 H, 2 R. You take the good with the bad, I suppose. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.

Anybody Got Some Skynyrd?

2005-02-24T00:01:00.000-05:00

"Tuesday's Gone" and all eyes are on the "new look" (again) Reds because the boys are back in town (that town being Sarasota). If you know anything about spring training thus far, it's probably that despite the additions of Eric Milton and Ramon Ortiz to the rotation, the Reds still badly need an ace. You may also know that despite professing (yet again) that he's as healthy as ever, Ken Griffey still needs to prove it with 120+ games. And also you may know, that despite the always changing fashion trends of those in the public eye where "hot" is "not" only five minutes later, Austin Kearns still badly needs a haircut. Kearns and Griffey aside, let's look at some of the new Reds--and see if they'll be of any use.

Eric Milton: 3yr/25.5M

Most of the malaise that echoes in the halls of Great American, over the Ohio, and out into the world concerning the Reds in, I don't know, the last two decades usually has a lot to do with the Reds starting rotation. The last time the Reds had a 20-game winner was 1988. Bobby McFerrin's "Don't Worry Be Happy" was a hot song that year. The Reds have had only 4 pitchers who've won more than 15 games (including Jackson and Browning in '88) since. Even the World Championship season in '90, Browning led the team in wins with just 15. So, to the point, Milton is the linchpin in this year's edition of "Revamping the Rotation" which has worked a grand total of zero times so far, regardless of Bowden or O'Brien at the helm. So--will Milton be any different?

The answer is 2 letters, the last two in his last name, just switched around. N and O. A longer answer might be that of all the pitchers who were eligible for the ERA title in '04 (162 IP+), Milton had the lowest groundball/flyball ratio (0.58) or all. That's right. Eric Milton, who surrendered 43 HR last year, most in the NL. Eric Milton, who will be pitching in yet another launchpad this season at Great American. This wasn't a fluke either--he's been a flyball guy his entire career. Yes, his K/9 is good, but his BB/9 was its highest in the last 5 years. If there's one thing the Reds don't need, it's a starter with control problems. Ask Bob Boone. Jack McKeon. Ray Knight. And on and on. Milton may be the "ace", but GABP will play trump to that as long as he's a Red.

Ramon Ortiz: 1yr/3.55M

I had a nickname for Ortiz last year covering the Angels. It was "Meat Machine." That was after an April 9.28 ERA and .417 BAA. After 5 starts, the Angels decided to stop him before he caught up with McDonald's and their "1 billion served" sign. For 3 months out of the bullpen, with only occasional starting work, Ortiz posted ERAs of 1.69, 1.16, and 2.92. Then, in August, just where you thought it was safe to get back in the water, they reinserted RO into the rotation and WHAM-O!--5.84 ERA with a .331 BAA. Back in the bullpen in September the numbers decreased again. So, just in case you're scoring at home, that's starter ERA 5.47, bullpen ERA 2.76. Yet he's back in a rotation. In a fly ball park. Yet another flyball pitcher. This oughta work out just fine.

Joe Randa: 1yr/2.15M

The Kearns experiment at 3B was obviously over last December when the Reds signed Randa to man the hot corner. And, boy, doe he have the perfect first name for his talent ability right now. He's almost perfectly average. The average MLB BA? .270. Joe in '04? .287. Okay, little above. Average NL OBP? .338. Joe? .343. Above again, but by a hair. Average NL SLG? .439. Joe? .408. Below, and not by a little. So, look at that, it just about averages out--except in 1 crucial area. Median salary for the Reds in '04? $425K. Joe in '05? 2.15M. Not average. Excuse me, while I read the script of my Joe Randa fantasy commercial--"If you're looking for that spectacularly average 3B for your roster in '05, then give a hand-a to Randa!" Corny, yes, but true just the same.

Captain Refuses to Go Down With Another Ship

Salute Barry Larkin. Now. Get up out of your chair and salute him. With RoidGate over all the news, little attention is being paid to the retirement of the greatest Reds SS ever run out of town. Barry would've returned for a reasonable price after his All-Star '04 season, but the Reds wanted to go younger. Machado ends up hurt, and the Reds sign 33-year-old legend Rich Aurilia. He'll battle Felipe Lopez an his .235 lifetime average for SS this season. Nothing like a good personnel decision for the home team, huh? Commend Barry on retiring, being able to say that he played all his games for the same team and left an indelible mark on the Queen City, but shame on the Reds for forcing him out the door just like radio broadcast legend Joe Nuxhall. Tip of the cap, Barry.

Kent Mercker: 2yr/2.6M

The bad news is that Kent Mercker is probably at best a last-round or two pick for your fantasy roster. The good news is that he's a pretty good pick in that spot. Mercker has had success with the Reds and at GABP, posting a 2.35 ERA there in '03. His K/9 last year was also the highest it's been this decade. Righties hit only .170 against this southpaw last year and that number's not inflated because he only faced a handful and did well. 49.4% of his Abs were against righties, almost split down the middle. LHBs only hit .240 as well, so the news is pretty good there too. Possibly the best thing for Mercker is that in a subpar bullpen which the Reds seem to have, Miley will most likely rely a little heavier on him than has been the case in his past. He won't astound, but you could do worse in your last reliever spot than Kent.

David Weathers: 1yr/1.35M

First off, bad move. Weathers is declining in performance and righties hit .294 against him last season. That's a figure that has increase each year since 2001. That's not good. Also, here's a guy who actually does a pretty decent job at keeping the ball on the ground (1.5 G/F), yet he gave up 1.3 HR/9 last year (average for NL pitchers was 1.1). What's that mean? He's throwing a lot of very crushable pitches when he doesn’t keep it down. Unless his K/9 rises again from 6.7 (which honestly it could) or his BB/9 get below the NL average (3.4; Weathers was at 3.8 last year and that's pretty typical for him, so the K's are a better bet), then you can predict some bad weather ahead for Weathers.

Ben Weber: 1yr/1.25M

Specs McGee here ougtha be dancing in the streets that he was able to find work after he was dismissed from the Angels minor league team. The Reds are usually not shy about picking up other team's garbage though, and that's the case again with Weber. Is this a prince in frog's skin? Tough to say, but I doubt it. He looked absolutely awful last year in Anaheim, not able to string any kind of good run together. On the bright side, his numbers are so grossly aberrant from his stats the previous three years that it's possible that '04 was a fluke. On the darker side, it's easier to be crappy than good, and his numbers weren't massively impressive was he was getting the job done. Very acceptable, but not impressive. Also, he's 35 and a soft tosser. That's never good from a stopper-type out of the pen. It doesn't matter how much he huffs and puffs and pumps his arms, his time for Major League effectiveness may be over, which means another seven-figure salary completely wasted.

Dogs With New Homes

Juan Castro (MIN), John Riedling (FLA), Phil Norton (HOU), Darren Bragg (CLE), Todd Van Poppel (NYM) and Gabe White (ATL) are all gone from Cincinnati and even though the Reds haven't signed any surefire players to fill their spots, it says a lot (maybe too much) that it doesn't really seem like they'll be missed. Good luck guys.

Dog Without a New Home

DJ Mattox was non-tendered and remains unsigned. Via con Dios, DJ.

Get 'Er Done? Got 'Er Dunn!

2005-01-20T23:59:00.000-05:00

In what could be the last deal he ever signs with the Reds, Adam Dunn didn't go the arbitration route and locked up a deal on Monday. It's worth 4.6 million--which is pretty cheap considering Dunn left the yard 46 time last season (huh, 4.6 and 46…is there a hidden meaning?). Okay, inane conspiracy theories aside, Dunn could theorically go this route again next year in the final year before he's eligible for free agency, but another 46 bombs and 100+ RBI season and he may be too expensive for the Reds to even offer him arbitration. If AD stays healthy, and keeps his G/F ratio at last year's 0.66, you can surely expect another 40+ HR season, especially at GABP. Sadly, though, last year's .266 average was his best ever--and don't look for that to rise much with a 66% contact rate.

Kearns Will Have to Earn His Dough

Equally touted prospect, Austin Kearns, who was actually drafted in the 1st round in 1998 (before Dunn in the 2nd round) hasn't had quite the same luck as his friend and teammate. He's been hurt the last 2 years and is starting to hear his name murmured in the same breath with J.D. Drew in the oft-injured context. His 1-year deal was only valued at 930K. Kearns as well has been--and still is--mentioned as a possible trade option for the Reds. The Braves pushed pretty hard, but Cincinnati couldn't get what they wanted out of ATL, so it didn't happen. The 3B experiment apparently ended when the Reds signed Joe Randa earlier in the offseason, but don't be surprised if he still sees a little time at the hot corner this year. Or he could be traded by June. It's a little murky for now.

Arbitration Idiocy

I've followed Ramon Ortiz for just about a year now. He was with the Angels last season (my other correspondent spot) and I can't for the life of me figure out why he's bickering over 550K. I wouldn’t be offering what the Reds are offering, having seen what I have from him in the last year. This is a guy who's had 5.20 and 4.43 ERAs in the last two seasons, has posted a K/BB over 2 just twice in his 6 years of service, and has seen his G/F ratio drop from 1.67 in his rookie campaign to the 0.86 mark he had last season in a park that is much nicer to fly ball pitchers. If I'm Ramon Ortiz, I would be taking anything near 4 mil to the bank--but then this could really be his last chance to make big jack. GABP doesn't look like a ballpark that's going to be pretty for him.

While We're Speaking of Pitching…

…let me ask you this--is it disturbing to anyone else that the Reds have 5 spots open on the staff going into spring training? Does that bother anyone? Does it bother anyone that of the 7 spots that have been "claimed", 3 belong to extreme fly ball pitchers (Milton, Ortiz, Mercker)? Does it bother anyone that of those 7 pitchers who are assured of a job, only 2 (!) of those were with the team last year? Does it bother anyone that those 2 are Danny Graves and Paul Wilson? Yes, it's probably assured that 3 of the 5 spots "up for grabs" will go to Aaron Harang, Brandon Claussen, and Jose Acevedo, but this restructuring of the staff that Dan O'Brien has focused so much on looks like its best result in '05 might be assuring the '04 team ERA of 5.19 stays where it is.

Visa Isn't Everywhere You Want It to Be

Anderson Machado, Reds prospect who was slated to split time with Felipe Lopez at SS this season, is still stuck in Venezuela, unable to return to Cincinnati for a examination on his knee. He apparently suffered ligament damage while playing winter ball there last month, but for the all anyone knows he could have one of those little aliens trying to fight its way through the skin. The technology in Venezuela isn't close to what it is here and with visa and passport problems for Machado, getting out of the country and into Cincinnati is now as big of a problem as the knee. By my count (actually I used the Reds official site countdown clock), it's 24 days, until spring training. This is really unfortunate. Couldn't this have been avoided?

"At or Near 100%"…Uh-huh

Danny Boy was quoted by the Cincinnati Enquirer as saying that Ken Griffey Jr., 5 months after surgery to repair a torn right hamstring is "right on track and should be at or near 100% by spring training." Ok, Dan-O. No Kool-Aid, thanks. Look, I'll be the first to say that Junior has taken more grief that deserved for all his injuries, but I'm not sure we're ever going to see him at 100% again. Griffey can still put up decent-to-solid numbers if he were to play a full season, but he probably never will. And another thing--could someone please take 2 brain cells, rub them together, and decide that Junior's days in CF are over? Can we put him in RF? LF? Where he won't run so much? Is that too hard to conceive? I'm really slow, but I'd have done it long ago.

Promises, Promises

I realize my last column said that I'd have the complete breakdown of all the Reds moves, great and small coming up for this time. Well--not for the first time in my life--I didn't deliver. I'm still working on that and it's safe to say that it's not pretty. Maybe there's some psychological reason I haven't completed it yet in that I've subconsciously realized what horrible shape this team is in now and I've taken the "ignore-it-and-it-will-go-away" approach. As of now, the roster problems haven't, in fact, gone away, so I'll finish it and get it to you soon. I agree that it's no fun to be bleak in January, but some of these moves look like the precursor to what could be an extremely ugly episode of BattleBots. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.

Getting Back Into Shape

2005-01-06T01:13:00.000-05:00

Most people this time of year have devised new and improved ways to lose weight, increase their muscle mass, and decrease their waistline. I am facing the task of getting my pens, pencils, and wits sharpened for yet another season of baseball here and ESPN and RLS (theredletters.blogspot.com). I’m looking forward to April 4 just as I know you are (otherwise I would hope you could find better ways to spend your time than by reading a baseball column). So, now that my inbox is almost empty for a change, excuse me while I [snap], [crackle], and [pop] my knuckles and try and get back down to my fighting weight, get all my ducks in a row, and get back up on the horse. One thing is for sure--my truckloads of clichés are definitely alive and kickin'.

The Smallest of the Smalleys

The Cincinnati Red Stockings of 1869 became the first ever professional baseball team. Their descendants, known popularly to you and I as simply the Cincinnati Reds about 135 years later, have become the smallest professional baseball team. Not in terms of weight or muscle, no, this team is the smallest in terms of market and population support. Don't get mad, gentle fans in Cincinnati--I'm a life-long Reds fan too--but facts are facts. In terms of sheer population in MLB cities, only Tampa ranks lower than the Queen City the Reds call home, and that's only if you don't include the massive St. Petersburg contingent, which puts TB well ahead. I also checked Nielsen's Designated Market Areas for television. Where does Cincinnati rank among MLB? 30 out of 30.

If ever there was a time and place for a city to develop a David complex to the other Goliaths of varying size around the league, that time is now and that place is Cincinnati. "But we just signed Eric Milton," you say. "That's true," I say, "but the Reds may just end up regretting that. "Bergleflickle," you answer, to which I reply, "Indeed." Yes, these are daunting realities to face as a Reds fan in what is perceived (somewhat correctly) to be a strictly big-market game now, but the Reds certainly don't rank 30th as far as team talent is concerned. I use the above as a means to rally the Reds fans around each other to say, "We may not be as big as Kansas City, but we're good enough, we're smart enough, and doggoneit, people like us!&

Offseason Shuffle

The great Jerry Seinfeld (whom I recently had the pleasure of seeing for the 3rd time at the Louisville Palace) has noted that all sports fans are really doing is rooting for laundry and that never seems more true than during the Hot Stove League, when free agents are being dealt like the Topps and Upper Deck cards that bear their names and visages. My first in-depth task in the New Year will be to take a look at each of these moves for the Reds, from the big to the small, and forecast what it means on the field and on your fantasy roster. I won't be able to cover all those here, but rest assured you'll be able to read the breakdown in full format at The Red Letters. Look for that here and there in the next week.

RLS Offices Open for Business

Sure, we only have a staff of one, but we're ready to serve. The e-mail is theredletters@insightbb.com if you want to take part. I've recently uncovered some older e-mails that I apparently haven't answered yet, and if yours is one of that bunch, rest assured your response will be out to you shortly (albeit long after I'm sure you wanted it). With those answered, we've renew our New Year's Resolution for 2004 in ‘05: answer each and every single one of your Reds queries (okay, each and every one of the least combative, non-profanity-laced ones anyway.) I look forward to an exciting year with all of you that will hopefully end with new Red David Weathers brandishing his Rawlings slingshot and for the Reds' 6th World Championship. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.

Slow Fade Into Oblivion

2004-09-17T01:03:00.000-04:00

It's September 17th, the record is 67-79, the distance to the division cellar is a mere four games, there are only two players on the roster who appear in ESPN Player Rater Top 200 (Dunn at 36 and Casey at 52), and the last time the Reds won 3 three games in a row, I was beginning my Memorial Day weekend. Is there any reason to look at this in a glass-half-full way? Um, not if you’re a Reds fan. However, if you're just trolling for some last second help to propel you up a couple spots in your roto league, or maybe for a Francisco Cabrera-type to get that amazing hit on the last day of the season to help your team hoist the H2H league banner, well, then, I just may have a few names for ya. Well, there's Francisco Cabrera, but he'll be 38 next month--and he's retired. Hmm. . .who else?

Luke Hudson

Hudson has quietly amassed a 3-1 record with a sub-2.50 ERA over the last month, which is easy to do quietly if you play on a 4th place team that is at most a spoiler on these September nights. His BAA is .217 and he's thrown fairly well in 4 of his 6 starts. Despite the roll, however, the 27-year-old has always had a propensity for the walk. It's really the only thing that's kept him from being absolutely stellar so far. Well, that and a decent amount of luck. His G/F is currently 0.68, so it would be wise to expect his 0.5 HR/9 to go up, although with such little time left, it may very well hold. He's had pretty good run support too, but regardless, the opportunity is there for him to help your team between now and October 3rd. If you're in a battle for WHIP, though--pass.

Ryan Wagner

I realize he was taken yard today despite throwing only 7 pitches, and his numbers don't really look all that great, but a 11.25 ERA in April combined with a 5.56 June will do that. Since August 1, he's posted a very impressive 1.96 ERA with a 7.04 K/9. Not overpowering, but definitely solid and very capable of helping you in the final stretch. He's coming off a month that saw him throw more innings than ever before in his budding career, so he's getting his chances. Besides, what do the Reds have to lose by trotting him out there in any situation, considering how well he's throwing and that there's nothing to lose pennant-wise? In fact, September has been his best K/BB month of the season so far, with a 4.0. Sure, small sample size, but RW's easily attainable in all leagues.

D'Angelo Jimenez

A lot more widely owned, at least in NL leagues, D'Angelo Jimenez is hitting .333 in September with a couple of swipes, so those of you in mixed leagues who need some middle infielder to step up might just want to ride the D'Train for the last couple of weeks this regular season. Like another teammate of his (who we'll discuss in a moment), his OBP is higher than his SLG, but if you're looking for someone to get on base, he's your guy. The problem is he's been hitting all over the place in the lineup lately (2nd, 3rd, 5th, and for some reason he hit cleanup Tuesday), so his table-setting abilities haven't netted him a lot of runs because he's not always near the top of the lineup and then, of course, the other players need to hit too--and that doesn't always happen. Ask Austin Kearns.

Ryan Freel

This is a long shot, but he is still available in about 7 percent of mixed leagues. He's actually a free agent in one of the leagues I'm in, and if my offense wasn't playing very well (knock on wood) right now, I'd certainly be adding him. Since May 1, he's walked 62 times and struck out 68. He's developed a very good eye at the plate and his worst month of OBP in that span has been .354. Add his 34 steals into the mix and it's clear a scrappy player like Ryan Freel who will not turn it down one notch until the day after the season ends regardless of how many games the Reds rest behind 1st place, if he's available in your league at this point, it would be a very good idea to find a spot for him on your offensive slate. Did I mention he's eligible at 2B, 3B, and OF?

I'll take "Walkin', Whiffin', or Wailin'" for $1000

One of my short-term heroes, Ken Jennings, has correctly answered 92.2% of the questions he's attempted in his historic run on Jeopardy! (yes, there's a website that has that information, and yes, I know the address). While Adam Dunn's exploits haven't reached that incredible height of excellence just yet, it sure seems that way. This season in 606 plate appearances, he's walked, struck out, or homered in 316 of them, which makes for a 52% percent rate. Recently, he crossed the 100 BB/100 K in the same season for the second time in 3 years. I suppose if you're belting 45 HRs, it's okay to whiff that much. But imagine an Adam Dunn that made contact even 76% of time (which isn't all that stellar) instead of 66%. Maybe someday we won't have to. He's still just 24.

Can You Feel It?

Sure, the Reds are gonna have as much to do with the postseason as I will, but as a baseball fan, it's drawing near to what could be the greatest month in all of sports. The NFL and college football are in full-swing, the NBA is making its final preparations to begin its season at the end of the month, college basketball teams are having Midnight Madness-type celebrations, and the NHL...oops, never mind. Most importantly, though, we get the drama and pageantry of the greatest 7 series in all of sports. Four LDSs, two LCSs, and that ultimate partridge in the pear tree, the Fall Classic. It's now less than three weeks away. Sure, the fantasy season'll be over, but there's nothing like postseason MLB. Are you ready? I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.

Dog Days of Summer

2004-09-17T01:02:00.000-04:00

The term was coined because early Greeks and Romans thought that Sirius, the Dog Star, which rises with or just before the sun during this time of year, actually was the cause of the extra heat as well. It's also been described as a period of inactivity, which if you've been checking this page any lately, you know that that's certainly been the case here. Whether it was the Olympics (which I've been consuming in large bites), mail order movies (free trials are great), or the resurgence of my comic book collecting (Batman, is, and probably always will be, my hero), I've had a little time to recharge my batteries. My ears haven't been glued to the baseball news wire as they've been for much of the year, but I've kept an eye on things for you. Let's get started.

Ch-ch-ch-ch-changes

A lot has happened since I updated last--Griffey bowed out early again, Felipe Lopez went on a tear, Kearns is back and not better than ever, and the Reds have settled right down into the mediocrity they so desperately tried to avoid in the first half of the season. What does any of it mean? Well, with the true emergence of Pena in the outfield, the Reds face yet another Four's-A-Crowd decision. Griffey has 10-5 immunity and the right to veto any trade, so it's not a lock the Reds could trade him in '05 considering they've deferred money on his contract that pays out until 2024. Sheesh. Who goes, though? Lopez had some terrible luck with a 22% hit rate early and a little too much good luck with a 36% hit rate lately, but the end result is better than his current .239 AVG.

He's learning to draw the walk a little more and remember that he's only 24. There's definitely time for growth. Kearns is 4-14 in his first four games back from his extended stay on the DL after hand surgery, and while he could give your fantasy team a jolt in this last four weeks or so considering his history as a quick starter (.344 April average in '01-'03), with his injury problems this year, he's at best a high-risk/high-reward proposition. As for that mediocrity I was speaking of, a team ERA over 5.00 the last three months will certainly lend itself to that description as well as a team AVG of .261 or lower over the same span. The only position that's hitting over .280 is the 3 hole. Sean Casey, anyone? Even with his .337 clip, it only lifts that spot to a season-long .298.

How Do You Spell Relief? No, Really. . .

This bullpen is, uh, somethin' else, to put it nicely. The lowest active ERA on the team right now outta the pen is Phil Norton's crowd-pleasing 4.50. By comparison, the NL West-leading LA Dodgers don't have an active reliever with an ERA over 3.68 (Carrara). Boy, Giovanni Carrara must really get razzed for having such a high ERA. He oughta be ashamed of himself. The Dodgers would probably love to get rid of a bullpen liability like that. The Reds' worst? That'd be Mr. Joe Valentine at 7.71. In fantasy terms, while Graves is out, no option for saves in the Reds bullpen is a good one. Miley says he'll likely go committee anyway, so go with the best available--which is either Norton (even though he's a lefty) or new reliever Jose Acevedo.

What's Red and White and Starts All Over?

Ryan Freel, of course. He's started 9 times at 2B, 44 at 3B, 11 in LF, 16 in CF, and 21 in RF. He's shown speed, toughness, and a hustle that all players can envy. Now, while only one of those traits really help fantasy owners, Freel has not only provided 28 steals but also a respectable .273 AVG and a very soild .377 OBP. He has more SBs that RBI and his SLG is lower than his OBP, but when you see a guy steal second base on a pitchout (which Freel did Friday night), you know that he can certainly help rack up the steals. I'm not saying that D-Backs starter Brandon Webb and catcher Chris Synder didn't have a hand in that by, well, just being wholly inadequate, but Freel has speed and position eligibility you can use. Being available in 25% of mixed leagues, you might take a look.

Just Haranging Around

Aaron Harang came over from the A's last year in the Jose Guillen deal. He's shown a lot of potential but also ineptitude in economizing his pitches when it's needed. He's only seen the 7th inning 5 times all season (22 starts). Then comes his 3-hit shutout of the St. Louis Cardinals, the best team in baseball, Thursday night. He's walked more than 3 batters only twice all year and fanned at least 4 in all but 7 of his starts, going over 7 in three of them. Here's a pitcher who's still young at 26, never having thrown over 100 innings in a season. So the arm's fresh. The problem is that this year he projects out to 162 IP, 90 more than last season. That could spell trouble should the Reds decide to let him keep going late into games--not this year necessarily, but maybe for 2005.

Odds and Ends

The Reds play 16 of the next 22 at Great American Ball Park, with only 4 of them against teams with a legitimate shot at making the postseason. Now might be a good time to make a run for a over-.500 record and 3rd place in the NL Central. Yeah, it's not the playoffs, but considering where most people picked Cincinnati to finish, '04 could still be considered a mild success. . .Don't blame the rotation. Reds' starters have offered up an outstanding 2.05 ERA in the last 9 games. Record during the stretch? 5-4. . .Despite the drop in the standings, the Reds still have managed to fill on average over 70% of the seats for their home games this year, their highest this young century. Props to the fans. Until next time, I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.

Lidle For Who?

2004-08-10T03:06:00.000-04:00

Give 'em time. The front office wasn't ready to dump anyone by the July 31st deadline, but Dan O'Brien & Co. made a deal today that sent Cory Lidle to the Phillies for two Low-A prospects from the Lakewood Blueclaws named Javon Morgan and Joe Wilson. Oh, and don't forget the extra "Player-to-Be-Named-Later" as well. Now, don't get me wrong--I'm not against the deal in principle. The word was Lidle had no intention of resigning next year and the idea now that the Reds are basically not going to the playoffs would be to get something for him. I get it. Two Low-A prospects though? Yes, I know Lidle's ERA is 5.32 and his WHIP is 1.44, but his K/BB is 2.1 and he's had 3 CGs this season. Lidle's K/BB has only been under 2 one time in his career--last year.

It seems that the Reds should have been able to get more. What did they get? Well, there's certainly at least some potential there. For all the weight that A ball stats carry (a very nice way to say basically no weight at all), Moran has 41 SB in the South Atlantic League this year, which is 4th in the league. Looking at his stats reminds me of an undeveloped Ryan Freel. Only Freel can play anywhere. Do the Reds need another young OF right now? Wilson looks to be a little less impressive--at least so far. The only stat that was eye-catching from Lakewood was his ability to keep the ball in the park (0.2 HR/9). But, he's a lefty and O'Brien says maybe he could start one day. Maybe I could too. I'll let you know what Danny Boy says. Deal grade from the first glance for CIN: C.

Acevedo Needs Relief; Goes to Pen Himself

The Reds moved Jose Acevedo to the pen on a conditional basis to try the 4-man rotation for now. JA will start when the days off won't allow for the others to get normal rest, but will otherwise pitch in relief. The question after today's deal is--who's that 4th starter? It could turn out that Acevedo is back in the rotation before he knows it. For now, the Reds will fill Lidle's spot with Josh Hancock. It's easy to understand the Acevedo move though. Jose's ERA in July was 9.67. Items of note: what was sour was his control. BB total April-June: 18. BB total July: 18. His HRs, which were a huge problem earlier, actually went down. It was still 4 in 6 starts, but for Jose even that was improvement. I stand by my many endorsements of him. He'll come around.

Reds and the Red Cross

Griffey is supposed to start on Tuesday against the Dodgers. As I said before, he has a history of easing back into the lineup once activated and this time will be no different. I wouldn't start him until he plays back-to-back days. Larkin still hasn't started since July 24. Both he and Junior got treatment on Monday and Barry hopes to see his name in the starting lineup as well Tuesday. Barry's days of playing regularly are probably over, but if you're strapped at SS, he has played well when he's been in there. Finally, Kearns has taken the last two nights off for the AAA Bats but he's gone 6-16 with 6 R and 2 RBI thus far in his rehab assignment. He'll be ready to go when he comes back in about a week. Will he play every day? It's not a lock, that's for sure.

Cooling Off?

Has Mr. Pena, who dropped from being hot property (93% owned) to this week's 61%, cooled off as much as his ESPN fantasy leaguers suggest? Not exactly. His contact % in August is still awful (62%), but his SLG is .528 and OPS is .854. To expect some slumps when his BB/K is 0.22 is wise, especially when combined with his contact %, but he's also capable of having 5 RBI days like he did on Sunday. Wily Mo is high-risk, high-reward right now. It would be silly to suggest that a player with 429 career ABs could keep up the pace he was setting, so what might be considered a little lull now could be an opportunity for you to pick him up. Like I said, it is quite the risk, but for a guy who could be an every day player next year at 23, it might be worth the roster spot in a keeper.

The Save: A Fickle, Fickle Statistic

Danny Graves had 33 saves at the All-Star Break and a lot of voices were calling for the engraver of the MLB record book to get ready to stencil in Graves' name above Bobby Thigpen for the most saves in a single season (Thigpen had 57 in 1990). In the 2nd half, Graves has had 3 save opportunities. That's it. He had a save op in 45% of games in the first-half and now he's only had them in 13% in the second half. Yeah, the Reds are losing more, so save ops will go down, but overall success has little to do with getting them. Proof? The top five teams in save opportunities this year? Reds, Marlins, Yankees, Giants, Brewers. That's 4th, 3rd, 1st, 3rd, and 5th in their divisions. Get the point? It's a crapshoot. Drafting a closer in the first 10 rounds of any draft may be foolish.

Fun With Numbers

The Reds are 27th (.220) in MLB in AVG with runners in scoring position and two outs. Only SF, MIN, and MIL are worse. Reds' leadoff hitters are hitting .249 this season but at least their OBP is .367. The 2 hole has an OBP of .302 though--not exactly setting up the heart of the order. The Reds are hitting .244 against the NL Central, which they're up against in 33 of their final 51 games. Their record against the Central? 25-32. They're above .500 against the other two divisions. The Reds are 2-11 against the Redbirds in '04, but then no one plays the Cards well. Adam Dunn has had 112 chances to hit into a DP and has only done so 3 times. Impressive. Of course, his G/F is 0.56. That helps. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to The Red Letters.

Slip Slidin' Away

2004-08-04T01:40:00.000-04:00

The Cincinnati Reds have become the definition of the bright star that burns out much too quickly. Either that or the boat that knows it will sink, but just pitches the water out by bucket as long as physically possible until the inevitable comes to pass. What in the world do I mean? In 2002, the Reds finished June 43-37 in first place. They ended up 78-84. Last year, after June they stood in second, despite a 38-42 record. They finished a game out of last at 69-93. This year, June 30 found the Reds at 42-35. So, following the pattern, what do they follow up with? 9-19 since. Since the beginning of '02, they're 9 games over .500 in the first 3 months, and 42 games under .500 in the last three. The Reds are turning into perennial pretenders and the slip slidin' is on again.

Here Comes Wily Mo

Look at this line. July: .269, 9 HR, 19 RBI, .591 SLG, .938 OPS. This is what Wily Mo can produce with a full-time opportunity and the Reds are gonna be faced with a real decision now that they have a sense whether Wily Mo can play once and for all. What you might be asking is--Is this past month for real? I say yes. Wily Mo did strike out 23 times as only walked 8, but even that paltry K/BB ratio was the best he'd shown all year. The key word is improvement. Also, his contact percentage went way up. Before July, it was 64%. It went up 10% in July to 74%, which is getting close to what would is considered at least acceptable. Again--improvement. That .269 doesn't look astonishing, especially considering his history, but he did it with a 26% hit rate. That's called bad luck.

Battin' With the Bats

Austin Kearns began his minor league rehab with the AAA Louisville Bats on Tuesday night. He went 1-4 with 2 K. It would seem that Kearns is most likely about a week or so from being ready to try his hand (literally) in the majors again. I speculated before that the Reds will take their time with Kearns, considering the way Pena has been playing. Speaking of the Bats, it appears that Brandon Larson took a step back from his likely pending rehab assignment. He aggravated his hamstring injury Sunday when running, according to the team website. Larson has shown no improvement this year in his admittedly limited PT, although that lack of PT is no fault of the Reds--he just couldn't stay healthy. With Freel, like Pena, demanding everyday attention, it's unlikely he'll see many more ABs.

Griffey Back From Injury

Where have you heard that before? Kenny was activated on Tuesday night to begin the Reds 6-game West Coast road trip, although he didn't start against the Giants. It possible he could start tomorrow, although Junior is known to ease his way back into the lineup when returning from his many trips off the DL, so the smart move would be to wait until you see him in the lineup before you activate him. Griffey was hitting .346 in 8 games in July before tearing that hammy runnin' down a fly ball in the gap, so if he's 100%, it could be a big boost to an offense that certainly needs it.

You Wouldn't Mistake Him for Cal Ripken

Barry Larkin has officially played in 83 of the Reds' 105 games this year, which in itself isn't very impressive, but it's even less so when you figure in the fact that in 11 of those 83 games, he's only had one AB, and has a total of 13 pinch hits on the year. He recently lamented that pinch hitting was "for the birds", according to the team website. While statistically this has been Barry's best year since 2000, it's obvious that even with an All-Star appearance this year, Barry is merely a shadow of the player he once was. Yeah, it'd be great to have a SS on your team with his stats, but the inconsistency with which he actually plays leaves me suggesting that if you can possibly look elsewhere, that would be a good idea. The last game Barry started was July 24.

Parting with Mr. Jones; "Nice to Meet You"

In a much lower profile trade over the last weekend, the Reds dealt Todd Jones to the Phillies along with minor league outfielder Brad Correll. In return, the Phillies sent minor league shortstop Anderson Machado and pitcher Josh Hancock. Hancock quickly inserted himself into the Reds stat books by picking up the win on Saturday in the second half of a postponed game against Houston. When he entered the game he had yet to meet his new catcher, Jason LaRue. So, how did he introduce himself? "Fastball, changeup, slider. Nice to meet you." Losing Jones makes a bad Reds bullpen much closer to horrific, but considering the salary dump that could've taken place, Reds fans might consider themselves lucky.

Odds and Ends

The Reds' pitchers walked 100 batters in July, their highest monthly total of the season. In fact, each month has seen the walk total get higher. So much for "pitching to contact" as Gullett's Spring Training mantra went. . .The Reds entered Tuesday's game just 1 game out of the cellar in the NL Central. Good news? They're still only 2 games outta 3rd. Compared to the rest of the division, it wouldn't be surprising to see the Reds at rock bottom pretty soon. . .Maybe we've gotten so desperate we should bring back the turf in Cincinnati. The Reds are hitting .291 on turf this year as compared to .249 on grass. Hey, I hate turf too, but anything to stop this slide. Keep the faith, Reds fans. Until next time, I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.

Let's Get Wild

2004-07-26T15:16:00.000-04:00

Let's be honest. I love the Reds. Maybe you do too. It's important to be open and honest with out loved ones, right? No one is catching the Cardinals. I don't think that's a news flash, but they're not. Not the Cubs, as much as they want to think otherwise, not the Reds, not Flash Gordon--no one. So looking at the Wild Card, the Reds find themselves in 5th, 4.5 back. Can they do it? Barry Larkin says so. He spearheaded a team meeting over the weekend to help put the Reds house in order. Will it work? Comments from the players range from confident (Larkin, Casey) to cautiously hopeful (Graves). One thing is clear--there isn't much more room for error, because this Reds team is one that needs to stay in the race, because they're not capable of coming from way back.

Help on the Way?

Two pieces of help for the Reds should be back on the field not too far into August. Ken Griffey ran the bases at 50% of Friday and then 70% on Sunday, according to the Dayton Daily News, which didn't reveal their scientific measuring gauge on just how much effort a player is putting into running. What's quantifiable, at least by me, is that he's due back today and won't be. When can we expect him back? I would think that the Reds will push him back very quickly, since he's hitting .343 with runners in scoring position this year and the Reds managed to leave 38 men on base in over this last 5-game road trip. No one is coming through in the clutch for Cincinnati and that stat says more about the Reds right now than anything. Look for Griffey maybe by the weekend or early next week.

What about Kearns? Austin hit off a tee this weekend and took dry swings as well and was scheduled for soft toss yesterday, although no word was given by any media, DDN or otherwise, as to what scientific percentage he was efforting in those swings. Austin had said earlier that he expected to make a minor league rehab stint before returning and considering the play of Wily Mo Pena recently, that's probably a good bet. I'd look for Kearns after Griffey, and he'll probably return no sooner than mid-August. He, unlike Griffey, has managed a trail-blazing .158 with runners in scoring position this season, although basically all his numbers in '04 have been altered due to the fact that he wasn't playing at 100% for nearly all of it. Don't get me started on how the Reds have handled that.

Who Would You Turn To? Jose Rijo?

A report of Jose Acevedo being removed from the rotation led Dave Miley to respond that JA wouldn't be given just one more start to prove his worth, but would continue to develop in the rotation at the major league level. Of course! Who would the Reds call on? There's only really one option at AAA in Seth Etherton, who's had only 18 career starts (11 of those were in '00) while being plagued by injuries in the minors his entire career. His numbers in '04 are very good, but is he a guy you wanna trust your Wild Card run to? I'll allow that JA has been horrible lately, but he did show flashes of success late last year and early this year, while always displaying the potential for success. Removing Acevedo would be ridiculous, not for reasons of performance, but for lack of options.

Wily Mo. . .and Mo. . .and Mo

What in the name of Dave Parker is goin' on? The Reds have had only two right fielders who have slugged .551 or better since Parker did it in 1985--Reggie Sanders in '95 (.579) and Jose Guillen last year (.629). Both of those guys are currently slamming bombs for other teams, while 22-year-old Wily Mo is hitting them over the fence once every 13 ABs. That, with regular play, would average out to 6th in the NL, behind names like Dunn, Beltre, Pujols, Thome, and Bonds. Yes, he has a 69% contact rate, but at 22, he can work on that. At 22, he can work on everything. If the Reds, having seen now what he can potentially do with full-time play, don't let him have the chance, they'll be making a big mistake. If they have to trade someone, I say again--as much as I like him--make it Kearns.

Ready to Overpay Again?

Should the Reds re-sign Paul Wilson? The Dayton Daily News suggested if the Reds don't use the money they have to be receiving due to the highest average attendance they've had in years (only 2000 and 1995 were higher in the last decade and only by a thousand), they should re-sign PW. He's currently payrolled at 3.5 mil and I say if he's signs for exactly that--and not a penny more--then, yeah. The DDN claimed he's earned it, which is wonderful, but his stats aren't as good as his work ethic. His strand rate is over 76%, which says he's had a bit of luck to his 3.71 ERA. His run support has been 6.1, which is well above the NL average of 4.6. Wilson is good, but that's it. He's not a #1, and the Reds have been overpaying players too much (see Griffey, Larkin). Don't add PW to it.

Odds and Ends

So much for a good roadie. The Reds are now 22-31 on the road, dropping 19 of their last 25 away from home. . .Check out my new baseball commentary site, Center Field (cf8.blogspot.com). There are also links to it at Red Letters (theredletters.blogspot.com). Check out the first article and be sure to chime in with your comments. It's geared to be an interactive site to talk baseball and have great discussion. Grab your glove and stop by Center Field. . .17 of the next 20 are against either the Cards or those in the midst of the Wild Card race along with the Reds. No rest for the weary. In one final bleak note, the Reds have given up less than 4 runs just 4 times all of July. They'd better get wild (in a good way) in a hurry. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.

Center Field

2004-07-22T15:34:00.000-04:00

Recently, I had to stop producing both Halo Daily and Reds Report due to lack of time to give daily updates now that I'm covering two teams for ESPN Fantasy Games. However, I now would like to announce the christening of yet another venture in the network here called Center Field. The schedule of production is still up in the air, but this will be a place that's more than just talk about the Reds and Angels. It's a place to come and talk all baseball. Occasionally (like when the outfielders gather in CF during a pitching change), the topics will veer to other issues, but you'll always be free to interact and respond to me and others at the site. Considering I'll be facilitating the site, I'm naming myself as the everday starting center fielder, but this outfield needs plenty of baseball fans to shag flies, talk shop, and raise the level of discussion.

Come on over to Center Field. Leave me a note. Let's starting honing our skills.

See you soon.

No Excuses

2004-07-21T00:01:00.000-04:00

As of July 20, the Reds, even without Griffey and Kearns, find themselves in 2nd, 9.5 games back of the Cards. That's right--ahead of the Cubs and Astros--two games back of the Wild Card. What this means is that ownership has no excuses to sell this July and we shouldn't be seeing a sequel to last year's Great American Flea Market. Will the Reds bolster the lineup? Doubtful. Who can they add? Kris Benson might be the only "big name" that may be in their price range, and it's doubtful they can get him. It's not for lack of money though. Reds attendance is up to over 30,000 per game this year, filling over 70% of the stadium. That ranks in the top dozen capacity percentage and is up from 29K last year (in a brand new park) and 23K from '01 and '02. Gotta be in for the long haul in '04. No excuses.

The Fastest Mouse in All of O-hi-o

Apologies to Coco Crisp, whose name sounds like a cartoon mouse, but Ryan Freel is still burning up the basepaths, with more SB than RBI and a higher OBP than SLG, and making a name for himself as the speediest guy in Buckeye baseball. He's stolen 18 bases this year as will probably lead off the rest of the season. He's still a cheap guy to get, owned in only 28% of mixed leagues, and he's now 5th in the NL in SB. He's also 4th in NL SB % per time on base at 21%. He's gonna run and he's gonna be on base, with a .408 OBP in June and a .415 clip in July. Although he's only walked once in July, his contact % is 88, so he's putting the ball in play regularly. His plate patience has really grown this year, and Freel would be an excellent pickup in all leagues.

Wily Mo Cerrano

Less than a month ago, I said Wily Mo deserved PT just as much as Austin Kearns did. If you happened to believe that and picked him up on the very day I wrote it, you would've been the beneficiary of 7 HR and 20 RBI. Wily Mo still has major trouble hitting the breaking ball, but he's slightly improving his plate patience in the last week or so and not literally swinging at every pitch thrown in his general direction. I maintain with the proper time to allow his skills to grow, he could be better than Austin Kearns and possibly creep into Adam Dunn territory. Two caveats for short-term performance--much of the league still hasn't faced him enough to begin to really exploit his weaknesses because he's never had regular PT. That leads to caveat #2. His current contact % is 69. Yikes.

Does Claussen Really Have Claws?

How's this for definitive? We'll see. He had a much better year in '02 with the NYY organization than last year with the Yankees/Reds. He's coming off Tommy John surgery, but his K/9 this season at AAA was back up around his pre-surgery range at 9.96. Wonderful, although he'll need to lower his 4.2 BB/9 a little to be consistently successful at the major league level. He looked solid today against the Crew, fanning 4 in 7 IP. He'll roll again Sunday against the Bucs and is certainly worth keeping an eye on. The extra time in Louisville may have really paid off as opposed to rushing him up after injury to see what he could do. Pittsburgh is hitting only .240 against LHP this year, so he wouldn't be a bad pickup for Sunday, should you need someone. Long term? Definite potential.

Red Cross Report

Griffey has been taking BP and is feeling much better, according to the team website. The Reds will wait for an official evaluation from the team doctor later this week to see what the prospects of him returning soon will be. Could be next week, could be next month. Kearns will begin swinging this weekend, but as I said earlier, the slower return curve for him should allow him to return 100% for the first time in over a year. With Dunn and Pena and eventually Griffey and Kearns all healthy, the Reds will once again face the prospects of having 4 guys for 3 spots. Last year, Jose Guillen was traded and netted the Reds Aaron Harang. This time? Maybe the Reds should float Kearns and see what they could get. Pena too. Getting more pitching is never a bad thing.

Complete Bull-oney

At a recent game, the Great American Ball Park scoreboard boasted that Reds' relievers led the NL with 20 victories and 35 saves. Ah, how raw numbers can be totally deceiving. The board failed to mention that the bullpen has blown an NL-leading 23 saves and have a save percentage of only 60, which is worse than everyone except SF and ARI. Paul Wilson would have 14 wins if the bullpen hadn't blown several of his leads. The relievers' ERA is 5.01, with a 1.62 K/BB. Comparatively, the starters aren't much better in ERA with a 4.94 count, but their K/BB is a very pleasing 2.17. The bullpen's HR/9 is 1.35, higher than the starter's 1.26, and that's with homer machine Jose Acevedo counting against the rotation. It's not a starter the Reds need. Shore up the pen, O'Brien.

Odds and Ends

Lidle's in the middle of a hot streak. Good add. I really don't think Wilson is going to fade, despite my continued statements to the contrary. Harang is looking better and better, but still doesn't economize his pitches. . .Two names I suggest the Reds target before the 31st--B.J. Ryan and Mike Gonzalez. They'd be perfect additions. Eddie Guardado, too, while we're at it. . .Reds' ERA is over a run worse on the road, but the Cubs are slumping and the Bucs team OPS is .737. Might turn out to be a good trip. . .Danny Graves got booed after blowing his 8th save against the Cards last week. I say it was a tough situation and Cedeno homered on a good pitch. He's still only walked 5 batters. Not beating himself. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.

(Insert Your Own Exasperated Headline Here)/Pull-Holtz?

2004-07-13T13:43:00.000-04:00

Here we go again. Just when you thought it was safe to get back in the water. Why me? Why us? What is the deal? Is the man made of glass? Whatever you want to say about Ken Griffey, to say he's had bad luck is an obvious waste of time and breath. During Saturday's affair with the Crew, Griff yet again found himself coming off the field after an injury and it looks like he'll be off the diamond for a while. The Dayton Daily News reports that the current outlook seems to be that he'll miss 2-4 weeks, and the Reds are leaning more toward the 4 number. Of course, it mainly depends how bad the tear is in that hamstring is. Right now? It could be as early as August 1 or as late as September 1. You've gotta feel for him. He is one of the greatest cases of tragic luck in sports.

Who'll Be the Green Kangaroo?

The one in the middle of Dunn and whoever plays RF will most likely be Ryan Freel on a daily basis now that Junior's out. That, of course, opens up an amalgam of Pena/Cruz/Vander Wal to play RF while Kearns also heals on the DL. Freel, due to the Reds bad fortune, continues to have the door opened for him for more PT. He most likely would've found his way into the lineup anyway with the way he's been hitting. He didn't make the trip to Milwaukee after sliding knee-first into the wall in right field in St. Louis trying to catch a foul ball. Word from the team's web site states that he's improving and will most likely be ready to go on Thursday. Back to Kearns--to make room for Vander Wal, he was transferred to the 60-day DL. He can be reactivated on August 1, but most likely won't be ready then.

The Mayor Will Be Back in Office

Sean Casey fully expects to be in the lineup Thursday and with Griffey now gone, they're gonna need him. Keep an eye on Casey's leg to see if he really is fully healthy. Most likely he will be, but as I wrote before, those owners who are risk adverse will probably want to deal him just in case. If you want fuel to your indecisive fire about trading Casey, he did hit .266 in June. His AVG, SLG, and OPS have declined each month from April to June, but then when you hit .414, slug .667, and have an OPS of 1.125 in April, there's a long way to fall before you're not really producing anymore. For those of you who like Sean, he's still walked more than he's fanned, and with the lowest G/F ratio of his career, it's a good bet that 25 HR as a career high won't stand past September.

Moments of Truth

The schedule was set up this year in a way that fans will most likely know by the end of this month whether or not the Reds will hang in the playoff chase, whether it be division or wild card, for the remainder of the season. Their first 17 games outta the break are against NL Central foes: 7 against St. Louis, 3 against Pittsburgh and Houston, and 2 against Chicago and Milwaukee. Tough stretch Griffey, but the time is upon the Reds to play or fade. Will they have any help from the front office? Don’t bet on it. GM Dan O'Brien is intent on rebuilding the minor league system and unless the deal is just too finger lickin' good, he'll pass. This isn't good in the short term, but you've gotta take your hits sometime. Let's all just hope O'Brien knows how to build the farm clubs.

Pull-Holtz?

I've held off on this as long as I could. The Reds have played the Cardinals 6 times in the last 3 1/2 weeks and I've watched just about every one on Fox Sports Net Ohio. I'm not sure how many of you are familiar with the TV crew who do the Cincinnati games for that affiliate, but George Grande and Chris Welsh are the commentators and are normally decent, I suppose. Bland and sometimes uninformed, they leave a lot to be desired, but I'm willing to forgive that because we all have different tastes. What I'm not willing to forgive is Grande's (and now Welsh's by cognitive association, I suppose) mispronunciation of Albert Pujol's name. It's NOT Pull-Holtz. It's POO-holes. Think elementary school and the kind you didn't like, okay, George?

I realize people have accents and different speech patterns, but that's not what this is. I say FLAH-rid-uh when referring to where the Marlins are from, and I thought that was the only word I knowingly mispronounced. It turns out that the dictionary identifies that as an acceptable pronunciation. So now, I can stand unashamed on my pedestal of perfect enunciation and tell George that he needs to do his job and learn how to say Albert's name. That's right, it's his job. He's getting paid rather handsomely to fill a position that many Reds fans (and other broadcasters) would absolutely love to have. I can deal with it when someone just isn't as good as Joe Buck, Mike Shannon, Harry Kalas, or Vin Scully, but when a broadcaster just isn't doing his homework, that's not okay with me. Active fans expect more.

QTR

Your Quarterly Ticker Reports for the Reds players are up at the Red Letters (theredletters.blogspot.com). Check it out if you own any Reds and see what you need to do when them down the fantasy stretch. In a new feature at RLS, I'll be awarding the Mr. Red Head to the Reds most productive fantasy player of the week, month, and year. I'll be looking back to the stats to award Mr. Reds for April, May, and June, but the weekly awards will just start this week. First one goes to Aaron Harang. His line last week: 1-0, 0.00 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, 10 K. Yeah, it was only one start, but it was a good one. . .I hope all of you really enjoy the All-Star Game. It really is one of the year's great sporting events. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.

Quarterly Ticker Report

2004-07-09T12:00:00.000-04:00

We're halfway done. Teams can finally begin to justify the panic they feel in their Divisional Dungeons and set themselves up to make a run, give up, or for us fortunate enough to be in keepers, reload for next year. It may be almost mid-July, but there's still time to make a run with the right moves. There's not much time to keep saying "there's still time", but for now, you can.

What the Red Letters is going to do for you is take a brief look at those players that are being rostered by the fantasy GMs out there and devise a "market strategy" in a few words to fill you in on their value and how they can affect your team in the future. We've based those worthy of including on ESPN's ownership ratings for mixed and non-mixed leagues, and if a player is owned 50% or greater of either a mixed or NL league, then he'll be included in our report (All ownership percentages are as of 7/8). It's your RLS QTR (we like acronyms). Let's roll it.

The 100/100 Club: Fully owned in both mixed and NL leagues.

...Sean Casey: His .352 AVG will probably come back to earth a little. He's historically much better in the first half. He hits the hard enough to keep it well above .300 though...The power in the first half (15 HR) is for real. His G/F ratio is the lowest of his career by a landslide...If he's healthy, .320/30/100/100 will be on his 2005 baseball card for '04 stats...Adam Dunn: Contact percentage the lowest of his career. It's declined every season...50% of his career ABs feature one of three results--BB, K, HR. I can't decide what to make of that. Mucho bombs, high OBP, but plenty of whiffs in key situations. He can't be homering too much in the clutch with averages of 37 HR and only 85 RBI...Danny Graves: He's done well, but save opportunties are almost completely random. It could swing the other way...His K/9 is L-O-W for a closer (At 4.91, it's low for anyone really). He won't beat himself though, with only 5 BB. Great control. Is that enough? Might be a good sell...Ken Griffey, Jr.: His good average days are gone. Believe it. It'll probably get better than his current .252 though. I recently wrote that his power was waning--as it is--but considering where it used to be, it's still very good. Bet on 35 bombs as a floor...

The Rest of the Reds' Portfolio: Ownership listed as percentages (Mixed/NL)

...Jose Acevedo (4/64): Star in the making. 3.8 K/BB. Find that somewhere else on the waiver wire in mixed leagues...Only problem is his HR tendency. He's a flyball air-it-out type pitcher, so he'll most likely always be a little susceptible to that, but to this degree? Don't believe it...Ryan Freel 11/100: The NL owners have caught on. He's got speed, a developing eye, and a lot of heart, which can go a long way. His OBP and SB have risen every month this year (.408 OBP in June, 6 SB). He could be a solid player with his multi-position eligibility for several years with full time PT. Hitting .467 in July...Aaron Harang (0/36): Good control for a really young pitcher, perhaps too good. Needs to fool batters more before becoming consistently effective. Has got the stuff to do it...K/9 is 7, but BAA is .311...Definitely good for a spot start with favorable matchup...Biggest weakness is and has always been his stamina because of high early pitch counts...D'Angelo Jimenez (13/100): Expect AVG to rise in 2nd half. His plate disciple is too good for it not to...He's still developing and SB total will assuredly be the highest of his career in '04. Not blazing speed, but then there are very few of those guys...The dozen or so HRs he'll hit will mostly likely rise in subsequent years...Austin Kearns (18/96): Easily a 100/100 guy if he's healthy. He's due back in early August, supposedly at 100%. Remember that he's a little bit a slow healer, and the Reds have consistently pushed him out on the field at less than 100%...Good news--if he is fully recovered when he returns, he's a quick starter. He'll hit the ground running and the last five or six weeks could be a nice little jolt...Barry Larkin (2/100): At 40, expect more numerous days off, especially since he now plans to save some for next year...He's got no power left whatsoever. It seems very unlikely he'll get to 10 HR...Only way AVG doesn't go down is if he can keep slapping at pitches and taking them the other way. Expect a lot of singles and the occasional double down the line...Brandon Larson (0/64): Can't hit for AVG. Get used to it...I think I know why NL owners continue to roster him. Potential is a dangerous thing. He's got it. For fantasy, potential and performance are like salt and pepper though. He's 28 now, with an easily replaceable glove at 3B, and with only the occasional flash-in-the-pan power, I'd waive bye-bye quick...Jason LaRue (0/90): Was and always will be an AVG anchor. If an owner has to have some pop out of the C position, then he'll be decent help. I can't think of a reason to roster him for anyone not in that position...Cory Lidle (2/97): Not powerful (5.5 K/9), but has excellent control...Can have the occasional outstanding start, so not a bad call at all for a favorable spot start...Currently in the middle a fairly hot streak. Might be good to ride that out...Wily Mo Pena (0/97): Way too much of a free-swinger to be consistently productive. His troubles (and lack of improvement) against the breaking ball say that he's a difficult student for Chris Chambliss...Decent power and speed, but he won't develop with 2-3 starts a week. We'll probably never know how good he could've been with proper minor league development...Paul Wilson (66/100): I keep saying trade him, but the fact is he definitely won't hurt you, although his W/L total is deceiving...Doesn't fool hitters enough to be dominant, but hasn't had a horrendous start since 4/23. You could do a lot worse, especially in the NL...

That's a look at your QTR. Any further analysis needed should be addressed to theredletters@insightbb.com.

Barry, Barry, Quite Contrary

2004-07-07T19:12:00.000-04:00

The Reds had set aside October 2 as Barry Larkin Retirement Day, planning to honor the career-long Red with a pre-game ceremony to send him on his way to hanging up his uniform and preparing his Hall of Fame speech. Around 240 ABs later, hitting .290 with 31 RBI and 40 runs scored--not to mention his 12th All-Star selection--Barry has decided he may not want that fond farewell in October. That way he can't be Roger Clemens Part Deux. Now, Lark's played in 66 games in '04, but only started in 58 of them. That's already over 20 missed. With a SLG of .402 and an OPS of .746, he's clearly walking and slapping his way to a successful season. That's all well and good, but unless he's willing to play for $700K again, he will have to leave Cincy. Barry, we love ya, but the sunset's callin'.

81 Games In: Buy or Sell?

The All-Star Break is still in front of us, but the Reds are already halfway finished with their regular season. Now 7 games back of first after losing the first 2 of 3 to the Cards, is it time to write off the season to what everyone thought it would be--a 4th or 5th place finish in the Central? Well, the stretch ahead is very important, and the Reds could very well end up being sellers by the time the 31st rolls around, but remember that they're only 2 games back from the Wild Card. The problem? Several teams in the race with them--Chicago, Houston, Florida, and Los Angeles--all have better pitching and it doesn't appear as if the Reds have any intention to add an arm before the deadline (even if there was actually a quality arm available). Prognosis: cloudy. Dark clouds, though.

500...501's Next Right?

I'm not sure if it's because Griffey can't count beyond 500, but for some reason he's having trouble hitting 501. Why? Well, despite Griffey's impressive HR total this season, he's really not as powerful as he's making us all believe. What happened was--Griff got hot. In May, he hit 10 of his 19 bombs and slugged .620. That's pretty much been it. His other three months of slugging percentage? .407 (April), .477 (June) , .429 (July). Only one of those is above league average. Sure, he hit 6 homers in June, but you saw the slugging and the average was .239. Griffey has 6 hits thus far in July--all singles. Not exactly the slugger he seems to be. Without May, he's slugging .459. Johnny Damon's SLG is .457 (7 HR). Mark Loretta SLG: .463 (7 HR). Not exactly bashing company.

Holy Sanchez

Who is this Jesus Sanchez guy? Does his name give any indication that he could be the savior of this rotation, despite that it's pronounced differently? He had a good spring, but the short answer is 'no'. He was in the Colorado system last year and with the Iowa Cubs in '02, but in both of those seasons he showed simply a marginal propensity for striking batters out while displaying lackluster control. He's started and relieved and posted unimpressive stats in both roles. There's apparently been a little bad luck in his past, but nothing that overshadows the fact that this is not the guy to throw in the mix with the Reds trying to turn it around. Oh, yeah, he's 29. Van Poppel is a better option. Neither is a good fantasy option, so before you think about picking him up. . .don't.

"Ace"-vedo

I'm not gonna quit trumpeting this guy's potential. I understand he's 4-7 with a 5.20 ERA, but his K/BB ratio is 3.21. That's outstanding. For comparison, Matt Clement (2.83 ERA) ratio is 3.1. Mark Prior: 2.8. Roger Clemens (10-2): 2.5. Freddy Garcia: 2.9. Other than the HR problem (and that's a big one), Acevedo is zooming right along. How easy would it be to acquire a 4-7 pitcher with very little name recognition? Very easy. 5% owned in mixed leagues. Just 64% owned in NL leagues. He'll have the rough start now and again, and may just be good as a future pick for a struggling keeper team, but Jose Acevedo will be what his name implies. Print this off. Post it on your wall. And if you're doing that, you might as well pick him up in the meantime.

Big Matchup a-Brewin'

Two teams, both on the cusp of being right in the thick of the NL Central race. Two teams with a shortage of superstars--and super cash--that have prohibited them from competing for the postseason for years. Two teams that are both "overachieving", considering those factors and that they are a combined +9 in the Pythagorean standings which, for those of you who don't know, measures what a team's record "should" be according to their runs scored versus their runs allowed. They are #1 and #3 in the NL on the plus side, the Brewers run differential at 0 and the Reds at -46. The momentum of this series will carry one of these teams into the second half with a real chance at possibly winning the division (however unlikely). Who said a series in July couldn't be huge?

Quality Over Quantity

Sorry to say, but the Reds Report website is being discontinued for now. I just don't have the manpower (considering it's only me) to keep it updated when I have Anaheim correspondent duties as well. I will, however, focus on making the Red Letters site even better, with extra columns and analysis that will only appear there (think DVD special features). Sometimes everything that needs to be said can't be covered in seven blocks anyway. Coming soon at the Red Letters, I'm taking a look at mid-season report cards and seeing whether Reds that are being rostered by fantasy owners are making the grade. We'll see what to expect for the second half and beyond. Check that out at theredletters.blogspot.com. I'm Matt Allen and this one belongs to the Red Letters.

Red. . .Alert?

2004-06-29T14:10:00.000-04:00

I went to Great American this weekend feeling rather positive about the Reds and their run for the NL Central this year, as the NL's best home team started a 9-game homestand. I left on Sunday seeing the signs of a team that could be headed for a meltdown. Why did my outlook change so much over just three measly games? Well, some of that I'll discuss in here, but what's fortunate is the signs point to a much worse fate for Reds fans than they do for Reds fantasy owners. The Expos are in last and still have viable (albeit much fewer) fantasy options. Same with the Diamondbacks and Royals. After this weekend, I've seen first hand that the last place Pirates sure do. If the Reds don't turn it around soon, they could be headed for a mention in the same breath with that group.

Agent Smith: "It is. . .Inevitable"

The incomparable Matrix villain would smirk ever so slightly when looking at the Reds rotation numbers over the past month and say just that. No one thought this Reds team had anything remotely resembling a fine staff, but to date they've managed to prove doubters wrong and keep the Reds in the race. I'm afraid, however, that the slow decay. . .the "sound of inevitability". . .the sound of the Reds rotation's death could be on the airwaves soon (could you hear my Hugo Weaving cadence in there?). Look at these troubling numbers over the last 30 days: 4-8 record, 5.65 ERA, 1.58 WHIP. The K/BB is marginal at 1.9, and they've had decent control, but the peripheral numbers show nothing that would predict a rebound or resurgence of success. Any hidden performances?

You know I'm high on Acevedo, but he gave up another bomb on Friday, which accounted for 3 of his 4 runs. Otherwise, he looked fine. Harang looked rusty--which is expected--and it showed in his endurance. If he could ever go deeper into games, he'd be a help. I picked up Lidle for tomorrow, but I'm holding my breath. Bottom line, I wouldn't own any Reds starter (save Acevedo. . .and maybe Lidle for a spot start). That includes Paul Wilson. You've got to trade them all now or waive bye-bye. Because it seems that, at least for the foreseeable future, the decline of Reds rotation performance--and thus most likely the team--is. . .well, inevitable.

Mighty Casey May Sit Out

Sean Casey had his MRI and is currently listed as day-to-day, but a very negative feeling surrounds this latest tweak. More and more reports pop up that talk about his continued trouble with that left leg over the season. He's been fighting a big injury all year and with continued playing time, it may be just a matter of time. Can the Reds afford to sit him out? No, which is why he'll be in there ASAP. On Friday on ESPN Radio, I declared this was not the time to sell high on Casey, but you might wanna put some feelers out if he comes back quick. Right now, you should be able to get some great value for him (assuming they don't read me). Sure, he could finish strong and hit 30+ HRs and hit .350, but the possibility of a weeks-long DL stint is becoming more possible.

Kearns Needs a Hand

The SuperGloves for Austin Kearns will arrive in Cincinnati today. Austin will try and resume regular baseball activities and see if he can make himself ready to get back in the lineup. What no one wants to say is that this is the last ditch effort. If this doesn't fix or even mask the problem, AK is due for trip under the knife. Then he's out weeks to get rid of all the bone spurs in this thumb. I'm still in favor of just going ahead and doing it--the Reds are where they are without any significant help from Kearns this year. His bat is not going to change the flow enough to win the division, especially at less than 100% strength, which he is. I'll say it again--Kearns is not valuable unless he's completely healthy. Right now he's not. Don't bother with Kearns any time soon.

We've Come to This?

Griffey is 1-27 since #500. Casey is hurt. It's June 29th and Dunn has already fanned 93 times. Brandon Larson has again failed with more PT by hitting .178 in June. Larkin has missed half of the Reds games this month. Who's left? How about Juan Castro, who's hitting .409 in June. Castro has been forever described as a hitter as "having a really good glove", so this month's raking is entirely out of place. Is it "for real", as they say? I'd say not. Castro has improved his hitting over the years, but this .409 is only over 22 ABs, although what's wrong with picking up someone in a utility spot while they're hot? He'll mainly help you with average and that's about it, but this is indeed what it's come to. Right now, Castro is as hot as they've got.

PT Issues

I seem to be getting a lot of mail regarding PT issues with players like Freel, Pena, Larson, and Hummel. Right now they're in a deadly fantasy melting pot with each other along with Cruz and Clark that only serves to curb what value any of them will have (and only Freel and Pena would have any to begin with). Miley has shown no indication of any front runners to this mix, although with Casey out temporarily, Hummel will probably get some time at first. Another possibility is Dunn coming to first, allowing Freel to play third and Pena to play left. Hope for that. Otherwise, it's more of a super sub situation for all of them, which should leave you looking for other options. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.

Great American Road Trip

2004-06-25T13:57:00.000-04:00

The Reds finished up 19 of 25 away from Great American Ball Park, and all the road games were split between two measly 3-game homestands. During the span, despite the highly publicized 7-game slide, they actually finished out of the red at 13-12. Of course, that 5-1 mark at home during the stretch helped quite a lot. Now, nine in a row at the GABP. Start your Reds hitters and ride along with the best home record in the NL. They'll start 3 games back of the Cards tonight with the Pirates, Mets, and Indians coming to Cincinnati. The potential for a run at first place is there--especially with Harang back tomorrow. Those teams are a combined 17 games under .500 on the road. With Acevedo, Harang, and Wilson on tap, the only question should be keeping the cold Pirates in the ball park.

Speaking of Leaving the Park

Jose Acevedo is a fantasy star waiting to happen. I mean it. Front line. It seems no one thinks that but me, and I hear mutters of "Stupid Reds fan" when I say it, but the fact is even though it's my opinion. . .I'm right. Look at this: His K/9 rate is over 7, his K/BB ratio is over 3.7 (outstanding), he's gone at least 6 innings in 10 of 14 starts, 7 in at least 5, he's got good velocity, and he's still just 26. Problems? He's allowed as many HRs as he has BBs. Think about that for a minute. Most pitchers "marginal pitchers", which is no doubt what Jose is considered now, walk a few a game. The NL BB/9 average is 3.4. Jose? 1.9. That's a little over his head but not much. His minor league control was good. He's walked 2 or less in 12 of his 14 starts.

The homer problem is on the other end of the spectrum. His HR/9 is also 1.9. NL average? 1.1. That may not sound like much of a difference, but look at it like this--the best pitchers at NOT giving up home runs come in consistently at just under 1.0. See how far on the wrong side of this issue JA is? If he could come down to near average, it would be a huge jump. 57% of the runs he's allowed this season have come via the dinger. Only twice has he taken the mound and not allowed a bomb. Do ya see what I'm gettin' at here? Yes, he's a flyball pitcher, so some long ones have to be expected, but not at almost double the average of NL pitchers. This will come down, I bet--he's been somewhat unlucky. When it does, you're gonna want Jose Acevedo. Trust me.

Three Reasons Why I Like Ryan Freel

1. Before a recent game at Wrigley Field, Freel asked umpire Eric Cooper if it was permissible (per the ground rules) to jump on the railing and then on top of the dugout after the ball.

2. He then asked Cooper if it was okay to use a camera in the camera well as a springboard to jump into the stands after a ball.

3. He was serious.

Long live Ryan Freel.

SuperGlove

That's what Austin Kearns is waiting on before he comes back to the lineup. Seriously. After visiting a hand specialist on Tuesday, the Reds recruited Louisiville Slugger to send Kearns 4 different special gloves that are geared to protect Austin's thumb from the typical wear-and-tear of an outfielder. You know, like catching the ball, things like that. No word on when the shipment is due, but honestly, I'm not losing sleep over what Brown may be doing for Austin, considering his .195 batting average. The broken callus on his hand may be healed, but I'm not sure Austin's been the same since the shoulder injury last year. The man's still just 24--if he's really hurt, shutting him down wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. Before you gasp at my lack of loyalty, read on.

Wily Mo PT?

All I ever hear about Wily Mo is someone saying, "He needs to be in the minors and get more work there." Or "They just need to trade him. He's too young." Okay, people, he's just two years younger than AK. Did you know as much as he's ridden the pine he only has 457 less ABs than Kearns? That's less than a full season. Their career SLG numbers are almost identical. Kearns has 31 career HRs, Wily has 12. Know what Wily projects out to with Kearns' ABs? 65. The biggest difference between them is their career contact rate, Kearns connecting 76% of the time, Pena 64%. However, Kearns was connecting in only 66% of his ABs this year. So where's the difference? A hurt Kearns isn't valuable. If we need to trade anyone. . .(darting eyes around). . .it's Kearns.

Odds and Ends

I'll be appearing tonight on the Fantasy Baseball Show to talk Reds baseball. The show is hosted by Michael Potter and Deron Filip. The show airs on ESPN 860 KMVP in Phoenix. Never fear for those outside the Phoenix area--the show airs also via webcast at fantasybaseballshow.com. It's tonight from 9-10 pm ET (6-7 PT). Check it out if you're not at the park. . .Larkin should be back by Saturday. Either that or he'll be DLed. A full report is over at Reds Report (redsreport.blogspot.com). Also, don't forget your new column site Red Letters (theredletters.blogspot.com). Obviously, I won't be at the park tonight, but I'll be out Saturday and Sunday, so come on out with me and watch the Reds make the Pirates walk the plank. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.

The Crown Jewel

2004-06-22T20:12:00.000-04:00

Everyone has their team. Their ONE team--you know the one. I love baseball. I've loved it since my father sat me down in front of Game 1 of the 1985 World Series at the ripe old age of 7. For me (although the Reds weren't in the '85 Series), my team has always been the Reds. I love several baseball teams (my friends regularly poke fun at how much baseball apparel I own), but no team has my allegiance like the Cincinnati Reds. Good, bad, worse...I'm here for it all. Frodo had One Ring. Romeo had One Juliet. I may enjoy many sports and many teams, but my One team is in the Queen City. I applied for this position last year and lost out to Michael Carey, who had been doing the updates. This year, I ended up in Montreal and then Anaheim.

However, as of today, the position became vacant again and I was all too ready to jump over and cover the National League as well. Now I'm here. Finally. It feels good, actually. So. . . welcome, and from here, I'll do my part to keep you in the know as far as the Reds fantasy situation is concerned. If, for some reason, you find you can't get enough of my dashing wit, or you want to keep an eye on the action in the Junior Circuit, you'll notice that my name is still posted across the big correspondent board in the American League as well. The Anaheim Angels is my team over there. Don't worry though. It won't cause any conflict of interest--that is, until we see a Reds/Angels World Series. Then I'll just run for cover, I suppose.

Less About Me. . .More About Them

Let's get it started. Everyone either saw, heard, or listened to their UPS guy tell someone (?) about Griff's 500th HR this past Sunday. Great moment. Great player. I wrote a little more about it at your new Cincinnati Reds column archive site (theredletters.blogspot.com). Go check out how Griffey compared timewise between 499 and 500 to the other members the 500 Club. The historical data was quite interesting.

Paul Wilson: Trading Block Material

The Reds are at Shea for three straight starting tonight. Paul Wilson tries for the fourth time to go to 8-0. Let's hope he gets it. Then--you can trade him. Yes, I know he has a 3.17 ERA and I'm happy for Paul as I'm sure many of you are, but we're about winning our fantasy league here, and Paul's peripherals aren't cutting it. 96% owned in mixed leagues is too much for a guy who only has a K/9 of 5.2--especially when there are guys like Kelvim Escobar, Brad Radke, and Nate Robertson who are all owned at a lower percentage and available in my 8-team league. If Paul wins tonight, now would be a great time to explore moving him because he hasn't struck out more than 5.2 batters an inning since 2001.

Got Freel?

It's really hard not to be a fan of Ryan Freel. Unfortunately, because of lack of PT (and production too), Freel was never of any fantasy value. I really believe that's changing rather quickly. He reminds me a lot of Chone Figgins (or vice versa). This year, Freel is seeing plenty of the field, having seen action in all of the Reds games this year but 8. He's hitting leadoff on an offensive-producing team (as of today, 5th in the NL, ahead of both CHC and HOU), and he's drawn 15 walks in his last 12 games. Only hitting .250, his OBP is a remarkable .364. Also, I'd expect a spike that batting average. Having only whiffed 37 times this year, he's now drawn 31 walks. He's got 11 SB already and is only owned 2.8 percent of mixed leagues. Did I mention he's eligible at 2B, 3B, and OF? So. . .got Freel?

When is an All-Star Not an All-Star?

When he's Sean Casey. That's, of course, technically not true, because I'm sure he'll make the team as an sub, but only playing in the same league as ESPN overall #1 fantasy pick Albert Pujols is keeping Casey from being the best first half first baseman in the NL. So can someone tell me why he's over four hundred thousand votes behind Jeff Bagwell for second in the 1B race? My only explanations: 1) The fans who've voted thus far are still voting like it's 1999; 2) There are more people in Houston than in Cincinnati; 3) All-Star voting is a sham. I think it's probably a combination of all of the above. I mean, Adam Everett at SS? Anyone with a broken abacus can see that as unlikely as it was, Jack Wilson is the best NL SS right now. I know it's crazy, but it's the truth.

Odds and Ends

It's a little harder to hit the ground runnin' covering a team I've watched on television and live basically all year than I would have guessed, but I'll be in midseason form in no time. Til then, e-mail me at theredletters@insightbb.com and let me know what info you need. I'll do my best to provide what I can as soon as I can. Remember, be sure to bookmark RLS (theredletters.blogspot.com). Additionally, I'm launching Reds Report (redsreport.blogspot.com) to give you a "once-a-day" brief fantasy report on all things Reds. The first report will be from tonight's game. For now, though, I'm Matt Allen and as Marty Brennaman might say, "This one belongs to the Red. . .Letters."

Waiting for Griff-man

2004-06-22T18:39:00.000-04:00

I traveled to Great American Ball Park this week to check out Ken Griffey Jr. attempt to hit home run number 500. Hot ticket, as both games I attended (Tuesday and Wednesday) were above 35,000 in attendance. Griffey didn't hit a bomb in either game, depriving me of seeing a second person join The Mighty 500 Club in person. I watched Sammy Sosa do it last April at GABP. If I'd seen Griff do it, that would've meant I'd seen 10% of the people in club perform the feat (2 of 20). Alas, Homerville 500 is still only Population: 19.

Here's what's interesting, though. I, a huge Reds fan, couldn't help leave both of those games (BOTH Reds wins) a little disappointed. And I could tell I wasn't alone. I should've been estatic that the Reds had halted their 7-game losing streak and taken the first two of three against the hard-hitting Rangers. I was, I suppose, but I was also looking for that individual feat probably even more than the team one. Sadly, that outlook is not uncommon and is what drives a lot of sports--and a lot of sports ratings.

Griffey hit homer #499 Sunday, June 18, in Cleveland. He's since played three games. Griff's on a bit of a roll this season, finally healthy, and he's already jacked 18 homers this year. I did some checking (thanks to Retrosheet, by the way...great site) to see if, maybe over the years, I wasn't the only fan in this position--that of driving to the ballpark day after day waiting to see a bomb that just isn't going out. It was rather interesing what I found.

NOTE: [The remainder of this column was written post-500 bomb by Griffey. The statistics are still worth hearing though, I think.]

According to history, Griffey should've hit his home run when I was there to watch. Griffey on Sunday became the 20th player to hit 500 home runs. I looked up the previous 19 players to see just how long it took them (in games) to go from 499 to 500. I was only able to get statistics for 12 of the previous 19 (Hank Aaron, Babe Ruth, Willie Mays, Jimmie Foxx, Ted Williams, and Mel Ott were unfortunately the six that I couldn't round up data for). Of those 12 I could, 9 of them only played three games or less between the two home runs (Sammy Sosa actually hit his #499 in the final game of the 2002 season, but only missed his chance to hit #500 in the first three games of 2003). Of those 12, Barry Bonds, Frank Robinson, Mike Schmidt hit it in the very next game. Mark McGwire didn't even wait that long. He hit #499 and #500 in the same game. Reggie Jackson only took one game off between 499 and 500.

Who were the slow rollers like Griffey? Eddie Murray had 5 games and 22 ABs (2 more than Griffey) between 499 and 500. The Mick, Mickey Mantle, took 7 games and 28 ABs between homers 499 and 500. The longest? Can you guess?

Harmon Killebrew tried for 13 games and 43 at-bats before he finally smacked out number 500. The future Hall-of-Famer was most likely so relieved that he managed to relax and bomb number 501 later in the game.

It's impossible to say (for me at least) what the entire data picture would show, but it seems a trend in a large sample of what's available that 499 and 500 usually come pretty close together. For Griffey, it was a little longer than most, but he finally got it done yesterday. Unfortunately for me, it was days after I went to the ball park on back-to-back days to see him do it in person. He also did it on the road, away in St. Louis. He also did it leading off the inning--the sixth, of which I was late coming back to, having flipped away during the commerical. The replay was great though.

Oh well.

So, now that the Waiting for Griff-man Watch is over, hopefully all the flashbulbs will quit popping with every Kenny swing and the Reds can get back to completely focusing on the winning the NL Central. As for me, I'll just have to add Griffey to the list of those I saw hit number 500 on television (Palmeiro, Schimdt, Bonds, McGwire, Murray) instead of the list with one name on it (Sosa) of players I saw do it in person.

But in the future, with McGriff at 493 and Juan Gonzalez, Jeff Bagwell, and Frank Thomas all over 400, if another player makes the approach to 500 and finds himself on the 499 doorstep, don't be shy about going out to the park the next day--and the next and the next--to see him hit #500. Because history shows that it can happen very quickly.

Just not this time.

Regardless, congrats to a special player who, like the other 19 men already in the 500 Club, will deservedly grace the walls of Cooperstown in the years to come. I'm very happy for him.

One thing though, Griff. If you get to 599, I'll be back. Could ya hit 600 just a little quicker? Thanks.