Friday, June 25, 2004
Great American Road Trip
The Reds finished up 19 of 25 away from Great American Ball Park, and all the road games were split between two measly 3-game homestands. During the span, despite the highly publicized 7-game slide, they actually finished out of the red at 13-12. Of course, that 5-1 mark at home during the stretch helped quite a lot. Now, nine in a row at the GABP. Start your Reds hitters and ride along with the best home record in the NL. They'll start 3 games back of the Cards tonight with the Pirates, Mets, and Indians coming to Cincinnati. The potential for a run at first place is there--especially with Harang back tomorrow. Those teams are a combined 17 games under .500 on the road. With Acevedo, Harang, and Wilson on tap, the only question should be keeping the cold Pirates in the ball park.
Speaking of Leaving the Park
Jose Acevedo is a fantasy star waiting to happen. I mean it. Front line. It seems no one thinks that but me, and I hear mutters of "Stupid Reds fan" when I say it, but the fact is even though it's my opinion. . .I'm right. Look at this: His K/9 rate is over 7, his K/BB ratio is over 3.7 (outstanding), he's gone at least 6 innings in 10 of 14 starts, 7 in at least 5, he's got good velocity, and he's still just 26. Problems? He's allowed as many HRs as he has BBs. Think about that for a minute. Most pitchers "marginal pitchers", which is no doubt what Jose is considered now, walk a few a game. The NL BB/9 average is 3.4. Jose? 1.9. That's a little over his head but not much. His minor league control was good. He's walked 2 or less in 12 of his 14 starts.
The homer problem is on the other end of the spectrum. His HR/9 is also 1.9. NL average? 1.1. That may not sound like much of a difference, but look at it like this--the best pitchers at NOT giving up home runs come in consistently at just under 1.0. See how far on the wrong side of this issue JA is? If he could come down to near average, it would be a huge jump. 57% of the runs he's allowed this season have come via the dinger. Only twice has he taken the mound and not allowed a bomb. Do ya see what I'm gettin' at here? Yes, he's a flyball pitcher, so some long ones have to be expected, but not at almost double the average of NL pitchers. This will come down, I bet--he's been somewhat unlucky. When it does, you're gonna want Jose Acevedo. Trust me.
Three Reasons Why I Like Ryan Freel
1. Before a recent game at Wrigley Field, Freel asked umpire Eric Cooper if it was permissible (per the ground rules) to jump on the railing and then on top of the dugout after the ball.
2. He then asked Cooper if it was okay to use a camera in the camera well as a springboard to jump into the stands after a ball.
3. He was serious.
Long live Ryan Freel.
SuperGlove
That's what Austin Kearns is waiting on before he comes back to the lineup. Seriously. After visiting a hand specialist on Tuesday, the Reds recruited Louisiville Slugger to send Kearns 4 different special gloves that are geared to protect Austin's thumb from the typical wear-and-tear of an outfielder. You know, like catching the ball, things like that. No word on when the shipment is due, but honestly, I'm not losing sleep over what Brown may be doing for Austin, considering his .195 batting average. The broken callus on his hand may be healed, but I'm not sure Austin's been the same since the shoulder injury last year. The man's still just 24--if he's really hurt, shutting him down wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. Before you gasp at my lack of loyalty, read on.
Wily Mo PT?
All I ever hear about Wily Mo is someone saying, "He needs to be in the minors and get more work there." Or "They just need to trade him. He's too young." Okay, people, he's just two years younger than AK. Did you know as much as he's ridden the pine he only has 457 less ABs than Kearns? That's less than a full season. Their career SLG numbers are almost identical. Kearns has 31 career HRs, Wily has 12. Know what Wily projects out to with Kearns' ABs? 65. The biggest difference between them is their career contact rate, Kearns connecting 76% of the time, Pena 64%. However, Kearns was connecting in only 66% of his ABs this year. So where's the difference? A hurt Kearns isn't valuable. If we need to trade anyone. . .(darting eyes around). . .it's Kearns.
Odds and Ends
I'll be appearing tonight on the Fantasy Baseball Show to talk Reds baseball. The show is hosted by Michael Potter and Deron Filip. The show airs on ESPN 860 KMVP in Phoenix. Never fear for those outside the Phoenix area--the show airs also via webcast at fantasybaseballshow.com. It's tonight from 9-10 pm ET (6-7 PT). Check it out if you're not at the park. . .Larkin should be back by Saturday. Either that or he'll be DLed. A full report is over at Reds Report (redsreport.blogspot.com). Also, don't forget your new column site Red Letters (theredletters.blogspot.com). Obviously, I won't be at the park tonight, but I'll be out Saturday and Sunday, so come on out with me and watch the Reds make the Pirates walk the plank. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.
Speaking of Leaving the Park
Jose Acevedo is a fantasy star waiting to happen. I mean it. Front line. It seems no one thinks that but me, and I hear mutters of "Stupid Reds fan" when I say it, but the fact is even though it's my opinion. . .I'm right. Look at this: His K/9 rate is over 7, his K/BB ratio is over 3.7 (outstanding), he's gone at least 6 innings in 10 of 14 starts, 7 in at least 5, he's got good velocity, and he's still just 26. Problems? He's allowed as many HRs as he has BBs. Think about that for a minute. Most pitchers "marginal pitchers", which is no doubt what Jose is considered now, walk a few a game. The NL BB/9 average is 3.4. Jose? 1.9. That's a little over his head but not much. His minor league control was good. He's walked 2 or less in 12 of his 14 starts.
The homer problem is on the other end of the spectrum. His HR/9 is also 1.9. NL average? 1.1. That may not sound like much of a difference, but look at it like this--the best pitchers at NOT giving up home runs come in consistently at just under 1.0. See how far on the wrong side of this issue JA is? If he could come down to near average, it would be a huge jump. 57% of the runs he's allowed this season have come via the dinger. Only twice has he taken the mound and not allowed a bomb. Do ya see what I'm gettin' at here? Yes, he's a flyball pitcher, so some long ones have to be expected, but not at almost double the average of NL pitchers. This will come down, I bet--he's been somewhat unlucky. When it does, you're gonna want Jose Acevedo. Trust me.
Three Reasons Why I Like Ryan Freel
1. Before a recent game at Wrigley Field, Freel asked umpire Eric Cooper if it was permissible (per the ground rules) to jump on the railing and then on top of the dugout after the ball.
2. He then asked Cooper if it was okay to use a camera in the camera well as a springboard to jump into the stands after a ball.
3. He was serious.
Long live Ryan Freel.
SuperGlove
That's what Austin Kearns is waiting on before he comes back to the lineup. Seriously. After visiting a hand specialist on Tuesday, the Reds recruited Louisiville Slugger to send Kearns 4 different special gloves that are geared to protect Austin's thumb from the typical wear-and-tear of an outfielder. You know, like catching the ball, things like that. No word on when the shipment is due, but honestly, I'm not losing sleep over what Brown may be doing for Austin, considering his .195 batting average. The broken callus on his hand may be healed, but I'm not sure Austin's been the same since the shoulder injury last year. The man's still just 24--if he's really hurt, shutting him down wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. Before you gasp at my lack of loyalty, read on.
Wily Mo PT?
All I ever hear about Wily Mo is someone saying, "He needs to be in the minors and get more work there." Or "They just need to trade him. He's too young." Okay, people, he's just two years younger than AK. Did you know as much as he's ridden the pine he only has 457 less ABs than Kearns? That's less than a full season. Their career SLG numbers are almost identical. Kearns has 31 career HRs, Wily has 12. Know what Wily projects out to with Kearns' ABs? 65. The biggest difference between them is their career contact rate, Kearns connecting 76% of the time, Pena 64%. However, Kearns was connecting in only 66% of his ABs this year. So where's the difference? A hurt Kearns isn't valuable. If we need to trade anyone. . .(darting eyes around). . .it's Kearns.
Odds and Ends
I'll be appearing tonight on the Fantasy Baseball Show to talk Reds baseball. The show is hosted by Michael Potter and Deron Filip. The show airs on ESPN 860 KMVP in Phoenix. Never fear for those outside the Phoenix area--the show airs also via webcast at fantasybaseballshow.com. It's tonight from 9-10 pm ET (6-7 PT). Check it out if you're not at the park. . .Larkin should be back by Saturday. Either that or he'll be DLed. A full report is over at Reds Report (redsreport.blogspot.com). Also, don't forget your new column site Red Letters (theredletters.blogspot.com). Obviously, I won't be at the park tonight, but I'll be out Saturday and Sunday, so come on out with me and watch the Reds make the Pirates walk the plank. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.
