Wednesday, July 27, 2005
Changing of the Guard
Have you ever been to Arlington National Cemetery? If so, there is a tradition that takes place every half-hour while the cemetery is open for visitation (the half-hour schedule actually coincides with the regular MLB season; from October 1 to the end of March, the only change is at the top of the hour). Anyway, if you've been to Arlington, there's a good chance you've seen what the cemetery's official website calls an "elaborate ceremony". That description is wholly accurate, for while the witnessing the ritual is interesting, it's not exactly a barn-burner. (My opinion makes little difference, however, for I also learned that even were I in the military, I'm ineligible to be a guard of the Tomb of the Unknowns because I'm too short! Under 5'10" need not apply.)
What's all this grave talk have to do with fantasy baseball? Well, your Cincinnati Reds have been in the process of the Changing of the Guard in 2005. Barry Larkin, long time SS, is gone. The last Red to play over 100 games at 3B was Aaron Boone in 2002. Seven different Reds have played 2B this year alone. The infield solidarity of Boone, Larkin, Todd Walker, and Sean Casey of '02 seems a long time ago. So, the Reds IF has been in transition for a while now, but if the Reds have their way, the long Changing of the Guard that began with the trade of Aaron Boone to the Yanks will be over within a week and the Reds IF could be more solidified than ever. Right now we'll take a look at the new left side of the IF and who could at 2B if the Reds trade Rich Aurilia before the deadline.
3B: Edwin Encarnacion
EE has been one of the top prospects in the organization for a couple years now and the Reds have been looking to this call-up for about as long. With Joe Randa's exit to SD, it paves the way from Edwin to take over 3B permanently. Now, you may say, "Oh yeah, that's what they said when Brandon Larson arrived. I'll pass." And you should--for now, at least. EE figures to get fairly regular play, but at 22, he's still got some maturing to do. The good news for skeptics is that he has much better contact skills than Larson ever had. He's also got more power, more speed, and a better glove. Edwin could produce All-Star caliber numbers one day, but that day won't be anytime soon. He won't figure in the mix for '05, but if you're watching young 3B talent, definitely look here.
SS: Felipe Lopez
His name and talents are old news to fantasy owners by now, and in my last column, I even forecasted a possible decline in his breakout production. He is certainly struggling of late, hitting .158 in his last 5 games (3-19). The numbers sure make it look as if this could continue. He's fanned in 4 of his last 8 ABs, and his SLG has dropped 33 points since July 1 as a result of his .427 SLG in July, which is almost 100 points lower than his total for any of the first 3 months. Lopez certainly has power, talent, and a solid future--the 1st half of this season wasn't a fluke--but the window to deal him at the value he's attained this year is drawing shut fast. Of course, hanging onto him for his multi-position eligibility is not a bad idea--just remember that 3B won't be there next year.
2B: Ryan Freel?
This is the only speculation in the mix for now. The Reds would love to deal Rich Aurilia, according to the Dayton Daily News, possibly to the Dodgers (and Aurilia wouldn't mind it either saying, "I could help that team."). If so, Encarnacion could play everyday at 3B instead of splitting with Freel and Freel could play 2B full-time allowing an occasional start for Rey Olmedo when Freel spelled someone at another position. The likelihood of Aurilia being dealt increases when you consider his paltry 500K price tag. The Reds just have to find a taker and he'll most likely be doing the Randa shuffle toward the left coast. Then, fantasy favorite Freel will again have a clear shot to play every day--just as it should be.
The Red Cross: W
Don't expect to see Ryan Wagner anytime soon. He still hasn't been clear to throw at all, says the Cincinnati Post. Even when he is, it won't be off a mound and there's no guarantee he won't see some minor league rehab work, especially since the bullpen hasn't been absolutely tanking lately. The 6% mixed/19% NL owners will be waiting a little while longer. Ben Weber has been moving his way up the ladder. After pitching well in Class A Dayton, he appeared for AA Chattanooga Monday night and did well there also. While that's encouraging for Ben, keep in mind it's minor league hitting and also Butter Churn's 8.09 MLB ERA and 9 BB/8 K pre-injury before getting excited. Josh Hancock continues to rehab, but let's be honest, at this point, 2005 is most likely a wash for him.
Red Flags
Don't expect too many more weeks for Javier Valentin like the one he just had. However, don't be surprised if this career .237 hitter stays a lot closer to his '05 average of .283. He's walked 17 times to only 19 Ks. His contact % is as high as it's ever been as well, so the plate patience seems real. Ken Griffey Jr. is a less than a week away from completing his 2nd straight month of hitting .300 or better and his 3rd straight month with at least 6 HR. With a July OPS of 1.121, Junior deserves way more credit than he's getting (plus don't forget about his still-superior defense). Matt Belisle, Kent Mercker, and David Weathers have combined for a 3.16 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and a 2.8 K/BB in July. Now that's finally some relief. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.
What's all this grave talk have to do with fantasy baseball? Well, your Cincinnati Reds have been in the process of the Changing of the Guard in 2005. Barry Larkin, long time SS, is gone. The last Red to play over 100 games at 3B was Aaron Boone in 2002. Seven different Reds have played 2B this year alone. The infield solidarity of Boone, Larkin, Todd Walker, and Sean Casey of '02 seems a long time ago. So, the Reds IF has been in transition for a while now, but if the Reds have their way, the long Changing of the Guard that began with the trade of Aaron Boone to the Yanks will be over within a week and the Reds IF could be more solidified than ever. Right now we'll take a look at the new left side of the IF and who could at 2B if the Reds trade Rich Aurilia before the deadline.
3B: Edwin Encarnacion
EE has been one of the top prospects in the organization for a couple years now and the Reds have been looking to this call-up for about as long. With Joe Randa's exit to SD, it paves the way from Edwin to take over 3B permanently. Now, you may say, "Oh yeah, that's what they said when Brandon Larson arrived. I'll pass." And you should--for now, at least. EE figures to get fairly regular play, but at 22, he's still got some maturing to do. The good news for skeptics is that he has much better contact skills than Larson ever had. He's also got more power, more speed, and a better glove. Edwin could produce All-Star caliber numbers one day, but that day won't be anytime soon. He won't figure in the mix for '05, but if you're watching young 3B talent, definitely look here.
SS: Felipe Lopez
His name and talents are old news to fantasy owners by now, and in my last column, I even forecasted a possible decline in his breakout production. He is certainly struggling of late, hitting .158 in his last 5 games (3-19). The numbers sure make it look as if this could continue. He's fanned in 4 of his last 8 ABs, and his SLG has dropped 33 points since July 1 as a result of his .427 SLG in July, which is almost 100 points lower than his total for any of the first 3 months. Lopez certainly has power, talent, and a solid future--the 1st half of this season wasn't a fluke--but the window to deal him at the value he's attained this year is drawing shut fast. Of course, hanging onto him for his multi-position eligibility is not a bad idea--just remember that 3B won't be there next year.
2B: Ryan Freel?
This is the only speculation in the mix for now. The Reds would love to deal Rich Aurilia, according to the Dayton Daily News, possibly to the Dodgers (and Aurilia wouldn't mind it either saying, "I could help that team."). If so, Encarnacion could play everyday at 3B instead of splitting with Freel and Freel could play 2B full-time allowing an occasional start for Rey Olmedo when Freel spelled someone at another position. The likelihood of Aurilia being dealt increases when you consider his paltry 500K price tag. The Reds just have to find a taker and he'll most likely be doing the Randa shuffle toward the left coast. Then, fantasy favorite Freel will again have a clear shot to play every day--just as it should be.
The Red Cross: W
Don't expect to see Ryan Wagner anytime soon. He still hasn't been clear to throw at all, says the Cincinnati Post. Even when he is, it won't be off a mound and there's no guarantee he won't see some minor league rehab work, especially since the bullpen hasn't been absolutely tanking lately. The 6% mixed/19% NL owners will be waiting a little while longer. Ben Weber has been moving his way up the ladder. After pitching well in Class A Dayton, he appeared for AA Chattanooga Monday night and did well there also. While that's encouraging for Ben, keep in mind it's minor league hitting and also Butter Churn's 8.09 MLB ERA and 9 BB/8 K pre-injury before getting excited. Josh Hancock continues to rehab, but let's be honest, at this point, 2005 is most likely a wash for him.
Red Flags
Don't expect too many more weeks for Javier Valentin like the one he just had. However, don't be surprised if this career .237 hitter stays a lot closer to his '05 average of .283. He's walked 17 times to only 19 Ks. His contact % is as high as it's ever been as well, so the plate patience seems real. Ken Griffey Jr. is a less than a week away from completing his 2nd straight month of hitting .300 or better and his 3rd straight month with at least 6 HR. With a July OPS of 1.121, Junior deserves way more credit than he's getting (plus don't forget about his still-superior defense). Matt Belisle, Kent Mercker, and David Weathers have combined for a 3.16 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and a 2.8 K/BB in July. Now that's finally some relief. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.
Thursday, July 21, 2005
Hats for Bats
With the trade deadline approaching, the only Reds that anyone has any interest in are the ones holding bats. It remains to be seen if guys like Wily Mo "Cerrano", Adam Dunn, Ken Griffey, Jr., Joe Randa, or Sean Casey will be wearing red and black on August 1, but the good news for NL owners is that it's likely that the ones that are dealt (which could be less that you might think) could very well stay in the NL. Griffey has been attached to 2 AL teams (New York, Chicago), but it's almost silly to think that anyone would take on his salary--and that's bypassing the silly notion that he'd even greenlight a trade (which he won't). Those of you gripping, worried about losing Dunn's bat to the AL should remain clenched for now, but I think you'll most likely be OK.
We're Better Than You Are!
Nah-nee-nah-nee-boo-boo! The Reds really have to enjoy playing the Colorado Rockies, which is clearly the only team that they can categorically state that they're better than. In the 3-game sweep, the Rox even made the Reds rotation look decent. Aaron Harang pitched a gem (which the bullpen again almost subsequently blew), Eric Milton looked better than terrible, and Ramon Ortiz put together a pretty good outing (6.1 IP, 8 H, 4 ER 6 K, 1 BB). The bats put together 20 runs, 8 bombs, and maybe most surprisingly, 15 walks while striking out 19 times (the Ks are still terrible, but the 15 BB actually showed a little patience). Sean Casey even mashed his 1st HR at home this year (finally). Don't expect more from Case yet--his G/F is still a very high 1.99.
The Red Cross: Freel on the Choo-Choo
Manager Jerry Narron told the Cincinnati Enquirer that he wanted Ryan Freel to get around 25 ABs in AA Chattanooga before activating him from the DL. After Tuesday night, he's up to 17 with 2 BBs (16 PA). If Narron's estimate holds, he'll probably be activated near the end of the week and certainly before the West Coast swing beginning Monday in LA. Freel owners do have to worry about Freel setting back in at 2B, which appears to be somewhat claimed by Aurilia. Freel will probably gain full time PT, though--at the very least, he can provide a day off for others around the diamond. Josh Hancock is still throwing bullpen sessions, preparing to return. As much trouble as he's had in game action at AAA, I wouldn't expect him to provide any relief from the Reds constant rotation woes.
F-Lo Headed Lower?
The idea in fantasy baseball is to trade surging players at the zenith of their production curve to maximize the results for your team. As your portfolio consultant, I must advise you to take a look at Felipe Lopez, especially those of you not in keeper leagues. His .288 average in July (while not terrible) does indicate (along with a .394 SLG) indicate that Lopez could've peaked for '05. Now, that isn't to say satisfactory production won't continue, but the level that Lopez customers have enjoyed thus far is more likely now to taper off. He's still one of the best SS in the NL this year, but heading down the stretch drive, his solid year could give you a window to deal him for an even bigger name in the immediate future. Not a wholesale recommendation, mind you--just a suggestion.
Slap On! Slap Off!
A .300 hitter is a boon for a fantasy team. They're few and far between for sure. Of those currently eligible for the batting title, only 28 currently exist in MLB. But a .300 hitter who has only 4 HR, whose SLG is .405 (and a even more meager .377 in July), and who plays a power position (1B) can be a little frustrating. Sean Casey, aka The Mayor, now aka The Slapper, is causing more than a few fantasy owners to scratch their heads. He will most likely hit over .300 for the season, but as we mentioned earlier, his power is totally absent for now. He's grounded into a MLB-leading 23 (!) double plays. I would venture to say he's had more 4-3 groundouts than anyone in baseball this year. Hitting .309, he offers little else and marks himself as a certified disapointment for '05.
Am I Really Typing This?
I just felt a shiver. Popped my fingers. Took a deep breath. OK. I've lamented over this Reds rotation all year (and they're awful, to be sure), but there's certain point where you have to look at the number and say, "It's gotta get better. It HAS to." Any it just may--a little. Looking at Eric Milton, the numbers appear to show a little improvement. He's had a little stretch of success since late June. In 4 starts, his ERA is 4.13 with 21 K and only 4 BB. Even more impressive, 2 HR in 24 IP! Now, I wouldn't say he's turned it around just yet, but he'd be easy to get in a good matchup and you may just want to consider it (another shiver). Luke Hudson also isn't great, but he isn't as bad as he's throwing either. You might watch for a favorable matchup there as well.
Fun With the Abacus
Even with names like Griffey, Dunn, Pena, and now Lopez in the lineup slugging, Joe Randa has the team lead in 2B with 24. Who says hitters see the ball better in day games? Felipe doesn't. He's hitting a mere .245 with 18 Ks in 98 day ABs. Maybe he needs his night light--'cause his night time average is .335. Don't let it get too late in a close night game, though. Felipe goes to bed early apparently, hitting .220 after the 7th inning in close games. Maybe it has something to do with the moon or the tides. David Weathers, who could have a foothold on the closer's spot for now, has fanned 8 in 7.1 IP in July. His K/9 for the year is now 6.8 and his K/BB is 2.25. That could keep him throwing in the 9th. Stay tuned. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.
We're Better Than You Are!
Nah-nee-nah-nee-boo-boo! The Reds really have to enjoy playing the Colorado Rockies, which is clearly the only team that they can categorically state that they're better than. In the 3-game sweep, the Rox even made the Reds rotation look decent. Aaron Harang pitched a gem (which the bullpen again almost subsequently blew), Eric Milton looked better than terrible, and Ramon Ortiz put together a pretty good outing (6.1 IP, 8 H, 4 ER 6 K, 1 BB). The bats put together 20 runs, 8 bombs, and maybe most surprisingly, 15 walks while striking out 19 times (the Ks are still terrible, but the 15 BB actually showed a little patience). Sean Casey even mashed his 1st HR at home this year (finally). Don't expect more from Case yet--his G/F is still a very high 1.99.
The Red Cross: Freel on the Choo-Choo
Manager Jerry Narron told the Cincinnati Enquirer that he wanted Ryan Freel to get around 25 ABs in AA Chattanooga before activating him from the DL. After Tuesday night, he's up to 17 with 2 BBs (16 PA). If Narron's estimate holds, he'll probably be activated near the end of the week and certainly before the West Coast swing beginning Monday in LA. Freel owners do have to worry about Freel setting back in at 2B, which appears to be somewhat claimed by Aurilia. Freel will probably gain full time PT, though--at the very least, he can provide a day off for others around the diamond. Josh Hancock is still throwing bullpen sessions, preparing to return. As much trouble as he's had in game action at AAA, I wouldn't expect him to provide any relief from the Reds constant rotation woes.
F-Lo Headed Lower?
The idea in fantasy baseball is to trade surging players at the zenith of their production curve to maximize the results for your team. As your portfolio consultant, I must advise you to take a look at Felipe Lopez, especially those of you not in keeper leagues. His .288 average in July (while not terrible) does indicate (along with a .394 SLG) indicate that Lopez could've peaked for '05. Now, that isn't to say satisfactory production won't continue, but the level that Lopez customers have enjoyed thus far is more likely now to taper off. He's still one of the best SS in the NL this year, but heading down the stretch drive, his solid year could give you a window to deal him for an even bigger name in the immediate future. Not a wholesale recommendation, mind you--just a suggestion.
Slap On! Slap Off!
A .300 hitter is a boon for a fantasy team. They're few and far between for sure. Of those currently eligible for the batting title, only 28 currently exist in MLB. But a .300 hitter who has only 4 HR, whose SLG is .405 (and a even more meager .377 in July), and who plays a power position (1B) can be a little frustrating. Sean Casey, aka The Mayor, now aka The Slapper, is causing more than a few fantasy owners to scratch their heads. He will most likely hit over .300 for the season, but as we mentioned earlier, his power is totally absent for now. He's grounded into a MLB-leading 23 (!) double plays. I would venture to say he's had more 4-3 groundouts than anyone in baseball this year. Hitting .309, he offers little else and marks himself as a certified disapointment for '05.
Am I Really Typing This?
I just felt a shiver. Popped my fingers. Took a deep breath. OK. I've lamented over this Reds rotation all year (and they're awful, to be sure), but there's certain point where you have to look at the number and say, "It's gotta get better. It HAS to." Any it just may--a little. Looking at Eric Milton, the numbers appear to show a little improvement. He's had a little stretch of success since late June. In 4 starts, his ERA is 4.13 with 21 K and only 4 BB. Even more impressive, 2 HR in 24 IP! Now, I wouldn't say he's turned it around just yet, but he'd be easy to get in a good matchup and you may just want to consider it (another shiver). Luke Hudson also isn't great, but he isn't as bad as he's throwing either. You might watch for a favorable matchup there as well.
Fun With the Abacus
Even with names like Griffey, Dunn, Pena, and now Lopez in the lineup slugging, Joe Randa has the team lead in 2B with 24. Who says hitters see the ball better in day games? Felipe doesn't. He's hitting a mere .245 with 18 Ks in 98 day ABs. Maybe he needs his night light--'cause his night time average is .335. Don't let it get too late in a close night game, though. Felipe goes to bed early apparently, hitting .220 after the 7th inning in close games. Maybe it has something to do with the moon or the tides. David Weathers, who could have a foothold on the closer's spot for now, has fanned 8 in 7.1 IP in July. His K/9 for the year is now 6.8 and his K/BB is 2.25. That could keep him throwing in the 9th. Stay tuned. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.
Friday, July 08, 2005
Road Warriors
Talk about starting the 2nd half of the season on the right foot. The Reds, who didn't win back-to-back road games at all in the first 81 games, won two in a row against San Francisco. Sadly, that only gives them 9 road victories on the season, still leaving them as one of only 3 teams who hasn't managed to muster double digits wins away from home yet (Tampa Bay and Colorado being the other two). Terrible, yes, but when you look at the numbers, is it any wonder? The team ERA is horrid at 5.70 (highest in the NL), but it's a mind-bending 6.39 on the road! What really takes the cake though is that the Reds are 2nd in the NL with 421 runs scored (behind only STL), but only 157 of those are only the road. That's fewer road runs that every NL team but Colorado.
Mr. All Star
2005 has been an absolute bust-out season for Felipe Lopez. He has already doubled his HR output for all of 2004 and his 14 bombs are only 8 behind his career total previous to '05. His average has increased each month thus far (.259, .304, .333, .357 so far in July), and his contact % is the highest it's been in his MLB career (82%). FL is hitting the ball often and he's hitting it hard. Good combination. Should he be starting at SS in the ASG instead of David Eckstein? Yeah, probably, but we won't get into that. What we will discuss is something highlighted by Baseball HQ about Lopez and his success at the top of the order. Batting in the 1-2 spots, his bb%/ct% is 9/85, but hitting lower it's a terrible 3/67. Hopefully Narron keeps writing Lopez's name on the lineup card early.
The Red Cross: Freelin' Around
I've been getting quite a bit of mail in regards to the scrappy Ryan Freel. The team's official site reports that Freel did some sprint work at GABP on Tuesday and came away with some discomfort in the inflamed toe that has him on the disabled list. They're not necessarily classifying it as a setback, but there's no way to spin that in a good way, especially when Freel's legs, feet, and speed are his primary weapon and strength as a player. Manager Jerry Narron said that Freel wouldn't be back until after the All-Star Break. That sounds about right. With another week on the mend, he could be ready to go. Although, if the pain continues, the Reds aren't likely to rush him back. In last place--what's the hurry? Not what fantasy owners want to hear, but that's reality.
Belisle the Closer?
Dave Miley was determined not to pick a closer after the departure of Danny Graves, but Jerry Narron may have settled on a guy much quicker--at least for now. Matt Belisle now has a save under his belt and Narron was quoted by several sources as saying that fans shouldn't "be surprised if he starts the ninth". I'd say that's a pretty good indication that Belisle will certainly get some chances in the immediate future. David Weathers and Kent Mercker still remain in the picture, but Belisle, unfortunately, doesn't look to have any more potential in the role than that pair. He had a limited success as a starter, but his K/9 is really too low to be a dominant closer and hasn't done well at all at keeping the ball in the park (1.5 HR/9). He's certainly not a long-term option.
Wily Mo Buffet
In the last week, Wily Mo Pena his hitting .367 with 2 bombs and 8 RBI. He has more total bases than any other Red on an offense than has averaged almost 5.5 runs in that span. Basically, he's on another stat binge. Just like restaurants with "buffet hours" for patrons to engorge themselves on their fine dining, Wily Mo has periods of super statistical intake that will be followed by "closing time" and a week well under the Mendoza line. The reason I know this is because during this latest stretch of success he's also accumulated 12 Ks in 30 ABs. A hitter's average will rarely stay anywhere near .300 with a 60% contact rate. Ask Austin Kearns. Wily Mo hits the ball really hard--but he misses the ball a whole lot too. Enjoy it, but the buffet will be closing.
A Country Boy Can Survive
Hitting .224 makes it harder to see how well Jason LaRue has been at the plate since the beginning of June, but make no mistake--he's done quite well. LaRue's line since June 1 looks like this: .299, 4 HR, 14 RBI, .382 OBP, and possibly most impressively for him--0.69 B/KK ratio. For his career, that ratio is 0.27. The level of patience he's shown recently is a massive improvement, so it's no surprise he's hitting 17 points higher than his career average this season (.259 vs. .242). An extended period of this patience bodes well for his average staying right where it is. Added onto that, LaRue's been hitting the ball really hard with a .597 SLG since June 1. He's not flashy, but that just helps you easily acquire MLB's 7th best C in the last 30 days, according to ESPN's Player Rater.
If Only We Could Put These Guys Together...
Austin Kearns jacked 3 out in 1 game earlier in the week for AAA Louisville. For those who love reading minor league stats, he's now hitting .342 with 4 HR and 16 RBI in 19 games. The underlying stats don't look as nice though, as his BB/K ratio is 0.42 and his contact percentage has only crept up to 75, not far enough above his 70% mark in Cincinnati to indicate he's gotten it completely together. Nonetheless, he'll remain a occasional raw power option if he's recalled because his surface numbers appear to be improving. Sean Casey may have 98 hits (.316), but only 21 are for extra bases. Of the 32 MLB hitters currently hitting .300, only Omar Vizquel's .400 SLG is lower than Casey's .402. Case has lost his pop for 2005. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.
Mr. All Star
2005 has been an absolute bust-out season for Felipe Lopez. He has already doubled his HR output for all of 2004 and his 14 bombs are only 8 behind his career total previous to '05. His average has increased each month thus far (.259, .304, .333, .357 so far in July), and his contact % is the highest it's been in his MLB career (82%). FL is hitting the ball often and he's hitting it hard. Good combination. Should he be starting at SS in the ASG instead of David Eckstein? Yeah, probably, but we won't get into that. What we will discuss is something highlighted by Baseball HQ about Lopez and his success at the top of the order. Batting in the 1-2 spots, his bb%/ct% is 9/85, but hitting lower it's a terrible 3/67. Hopefully Narron keeps writing Lopez's name on the lineup card early.
The Red Cross: Freelin' Around
I've been getting quite a bit of mail in regards to the scrappy Ryan Freel. The team's official site reports that Freel did some sprint work at GABP on Tuesday and came away with some discomfort in the inflamed toe that has him on the disabled list. They're not necessarily classifying it as a setback, but there's no way to spin that in a good way, especially when Freel's legs, feet, and speed are his primary weapon and strength as a player. Manager Jerry Narron said that Freel wouldn't be back until after the All-Star Break. That sounds about right. With another week on the mend, he could be ready to go. Although, if the pain continues, the Reds aren't likely to rush him back. In last place--what's the hurry? Not what fantasy owners want to hear, but that's reality.
Belisle the Closer?
Dave Miley was determined not to pick a closer after the departure of Danny Graves, but Jerry Narron may have settled on a guy much quicker--at least for now. Matt Belisle now has a save under his belt and Narron was quoted by several sources as saying that fans shouldn't "be surprised if he starts the ninth". I'd say that's a pretty good indication that Belisle will certainly get some chances in the immediate future. David Weathers and Kent Mercker still remain in the picture, but Belisle, unfortunately, doesn't look to have any more potential in the role than that pair. He had a limited success as a starter, but his K/9 is really too low to be a dominant closer and hasn't done well at all at keeping the ball in the park (1.5 HR/9). He's certainly not a long-term option.
Wily Mo Buffet
In the last week, Wily Mo Pena his hitting .367 with 2 bombs and 8 RBI. He has more total bases than any other Red on an offense than has averaged almost 5.5 runs in that span. Basically, he's on another stat binge. Just like restaurants with "buffet hours" for patrons to engorge themselves on their fine dining, Wily Mo has periods of super statistical intake that will be followed by "closing time" and a week well under the Mendoza line. The reason I know this is because during this latest stretch of success he's also accumulated 12 Ks in 30 ABs. A hitter's average will rarely stay anywhere near .300 with a 60% contact rate. Ask Austin Kearns. Wily Mo hits the ball really hard--but he misses the ball a whole lot too. Enjoy it, but the buffet will be closing.
A Country Boy Can Survive
Hitting .224 makes it harder to see how well Jason LaRue has been at the plate since the beginning of June, but make no mistake--he's done quite well. LaRue's line since June 1 looks like this: .299, 4 HR, 14 RBI, .382 OBP, and possibly most impressively for him--0.69 B/KK ratio. For his career, that ratio is 0.27. The level of patience he's shown recently is a massive improvement, so it's no surprise he's hitting 17 points higher than his career average this season (.259 vs. .242). An extended period of this patience bodes well for his average staying right where it is. Added onto that, LaRue's been hitting the ball really hard with a .597 SLG since June 1. He's not flashy, but that just helps you easily acquire MLB's 7th best C in the last 30 days, according to ESPN's Player Rater.
If Only We Could Put These Guys Together...
Austin Kearns jacked 3 out in 1 game earlier in the week for AAA Louisville. For those who love reading minor league stats, he's now hitting .342 with 4 HR and 16 RBI in 19 games. The underlying stats don't look as nice though, as his BB/K ratio is 0.42 and his contact percentage has only crept up to 75, not far enough above his 70% mark in Cincinnati to indicate he's gotten it completely together. Nonetheless, he'll remain a occasional raw power option if he's recalled because his surface numbers appear to be improving. Sean Casey may have 98 hits (.316), but only 21 are for extra bases. Of the 32 MLB hitters currently hitting .300, only Omar Vizquel's .400 SLG is lower than Casey's .402. Case has lost his pop for 2005. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.
