Friday, July 08, 2005
Road Warriors
Talk about starting the 2nd half of the season on the right foot. The Reds, who didn't win back-to-back road games at all in the first 81 games, won two in a row against San Francisco. Sadly, that only gives them 9 road victories on the season, still leaving them as one of only 3 teams who hasn't managed to muster double digits wins away from home yet (Tampa Bay and Colorado being the other two). Terrible, yes, but when you look at the numbers, is it any wonder? The team ERA is horrid at 5.70 (highest in the NL), but it's a mind-bending 6.39 on the road! What really takes the cake though is that the Reds are 2nd in the NL with 421 runs scored (behind only STL), but only 157 of those are only the road. That's fewer road runs that every NL team but Colorado.
Mr. All Star
2005 has been an absolute bust-out season for Felipe Lopez. He has already doubled his HR output for all of 2004 and his 14 bombs are only 8 behind his career total previous to '05. His average has increased each month thus far (.259, .304, .333, .357 so far in July), and his contact % is the highest it's been in his MLB career (82%). FL is hitting the ball often and he's hitting it hard. Good combination. Should he be starting at SS in the ASG instead of David Eckstein? Yeah, probably, but we won't get into that. What we will discuss is something highlighted by Baseball HQ about Lopez and his success at the top of the order. Batting in the 1-2 spots, his bb%/ct% is 9/85, but hitting lower it's a terrible 3/67. Hopefully Narron keeps writing Lopez's name on the lineup card early.
The Red Cross: Freelin' Around
I've been getting quite a bit of mail in regards to the scrappy Ryan Freel. The team's official site reports that Freel did some sprint work at GABP on Tuesday and came away with some discomfort in the inflamed toe that has him on the disabled list. They're not necessarily classifying it as a setback, but there's no way to spin that in a good way, especially when Freel's legs, feet, and speed are his primary weapon and strength as a player. Manager Jerry Narron said that Freel wouldn't be back until after the All-Star Break. That sounds about right. With another week on the mend, he could be ready to go. Although, if the pain continues, the Reds aren't likely to rush him back. In last place--what's the hurry? Not what fantasy owners want to hear, but that's reality.
Belisle the Closer?
Dave Miley was determined not to pick a closer after the departure of Danny Graves, but Jerry Narron may have settled on a guy much quicker--at least for now. Matt Belisle now has a save under his belt and Narron was quoted by several sources as saying that fans shouldn't "be surprised if he starts the ninth". I'd say that's a pretty good indication that Belisle will certainly get some chances in the immediate future. David Weathers and Kent Mercker still remain in the picture, but Belisle, unfortunately, doesn't look to have any more potential in the role than that pair. He had a limited success as a starter, but his K/9 is really too low to be a dominant closer and hasn't done well at all at keeping the ball in the park (1.5 HR/9). He's certainly not a long-term option.
Wily Mo Buffet
In the last week, Wily Mo Pena his hitting .367 with 2 bombs and 8 RBI. He has more total bases than any other Red on an offense than has averaged almost 5.5 runs in that span. Basically, he's on another stat binge. Just like restaurants with "buffet hours" for patrons to engorge themselves on their fine dining, Wily Mo has periods of super statistical intake that will be followed by "closing time" and a week well under the Mendoza line. The reason I know this is because during this latest stretch of success he's also accumulated 12 Ks in 30 ABs. A hitter's average will rarely stay anywhere near .300 with a 60% contact rate. Ask Austin Kearns. Wily Mo hits the ball really hard--but he misses the ball a whole lot too. Enjoy it, but the buffet will be closing.
A Country Boy Can Survive
Hitting .224 makes it harder to see how well Jason LaRue has been at the plate since the beginning of June, but make no mistake--he's done quite well. LaRue's line since June 1 looks like this: .299, 4 HR, 14 RBI, .382 OBP, and possibly most impressively for him--0.69 B/KK ratio. For his career, that ratio is 0.27. The level of patience he's shown recently is a massive improvement, so it's no surprise he's hitting 17 points higher than his career average this season (.259 vs. .242). An extended period of this patience bodes well for his average staying right where it is. Added onto that, LaRue's been hitting the ball really hard with a .597 SLG since June 1. He's not flashy, but that just helps you easily acquire MLB's 7th best C in the last 30 days, according to ESPN's Player Rater.
If Only We Could Put These Guys Together...
Austin Kearns jacked 3 out in 1 game earlier in the week for AAA Louisville. For those who love reading minor league stats, he's now hitting .342 with 4 HR and 16 RBI in 19 games. The underlying stats don't look as nice though, as his BB/K ratio is 0.42 and his contact percentage has only crept up to 75, not far enough above his 70% mark in Cincinnati to indicate he's gotten it completely together. Nonetheless, he'll remain a occasional raw power option if he's recalled because his surface numbers appear to be improving. Sean Casey may have 98 hits (.316), but only 21 are for extra bases. Of the 32 MLB hitters currently hitting .300, only Omar Vizquel's .400 SLG is lower than Casey's .402. Case has lost his pop for 2005. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.
Mr. All Star
2005 has been an absolute bust-out season for Felipe Lopez. He has already doubled his HR output for all of 2004 and his 14 bombs are only 8 behind his career total previous to '05. His average has increased each month thus far (.259, .304, .333, .357 so far in July), and his contact % is the highest it's been in his MLB career (82%). FL is hitting the ball often and he's hitting it hard. Good combination. Should he be starting at SS in the ASG instead of David Eckstein? Yeah, probably, but we won't get into that. What we will discuss is something highlighted by Baseball HQ about Lopez and his success at the top of the order. Batting in the 1-2 spots, his bb%/ct% is 9/85, but hitting lower it's a terrible 3/67. Hopefully Narron keeps writing Lopez's name on the lineup card early.
The Red Cross: Freelin' Around
I've been getting quite a bit of mail in regards to the scrappy Ryan Freel. The team's official site reports that Freel did some sprint work at GABP on Tuesday and came away with some discomfort in the inflamed toe that has him on the disabled list. They're not necessarily classifying it as a setback, but there's no way to spin that in a good way, especially when Freel's legs, feet, and speed are his primary weapon and strength as a player. Manager Jerry Narron said that Freel wouldn't be back until after the All-Star Break. That sounds about right. With another week on the mend, he could be ready to go. Although, if the pain continues, the Reds aren't likely to rush him back. In last place--what's the hurry? Not what fantasy owners want to hear, but that's reality.
Belisle the Closer?
Dave Miley was determined not to pick a closer after the departure of Danny Graves, but Jerry Narron may have settled on a guy much quicker--at least for now. Matt Belisle now has a save under his belt and Narron was quoted by several sources as saying that fans shouldn't "be surprised if he starts the ninth". I'd say that's a pretty good indication that Belisle will certainly get some chances in the immediate future. David Weathers and Kent Mercker still remain in the picture, but Belisle, unfortunately, doesn't look to have any more potential in the role than that pair. He had a limited success as a starter, but his K/9 is really too low to be a dominant closer and hasn't done well at all at keeping the ball in the park (1.5 HR/9). He's certainly not a long-term option.
Wily Mo Buffet
In the last week, Wily Mo Pena his hitting .367 with 2 bombs and 8 RBI. He has more total bases than any other Red on an offense than has averaged almost 5.5 runs in that span. Basically, he's on another stat binge. Just like restaurants with "buffet hours" for patrons to engorge themselves on their fine dining, Wily Mo has periods of super statistical intake that will be followed by "closing time" and a week well under the Mendoza line. The reason I know this is because during this latest stretch of success he's also accumulated 12 Ks in 30 ABs. A hitter's average will rarely stay anywhere near .300 with a 60% contact rate. Ask Austin Kearns. Wily Mo hits the ball really hard--but he misses the ball a whole lot too. Enjoy it, but the buffet will be closing.
A Country Boy Can Survive
Hitting .224 makes it harder to see how well Jason LaRue has been at the plate since the beginning of June, but make no mistake--he's done quite well. LaRue's line since June 1 looks like this: .299, 4 HR, 14 RBI, .382 OBP, and possibly most impressively for him--0.69 B/KK ratio. For his career, that ratio is 0.27. The level of patience he's shown recently is a massive improvement, so it's no surprise he's hitting 17 points higher than his career average this season (.259 vs. .242). An extended period of this patience bodes well for his average staying right where it is. Added onto that, LaRue's been hitting the ball really hard with a .597 SLG since June 1. He's not flashy, but that just helps you easily acquire MLB's 7th best C in the last 30 days, according to ESPN's Player Rater.
If Only We Could Put These Guys Together...
Austin Kearns jacked 3 out in 1 game earlier in the week for AAA Louisville. For those who love reading minor league stats, he's now hitting .342 with 4 HR and 16 RBI in 19 games. The underlying stats don't look as nice though, as his BB/K ratio is 0.42 and his contact percentage has only crept up to 75, not far enough above his 70% mark in Cincinnati to indicate he's gotten it completely together. Nonetheless, he'll remain a occasional raw power option if he's recalled because his surface numbers appear to be improving. Sean Casey may have 98 hits (.316), but only 21 are for extra bases. Of the 32 MLB hitters currently hitting .300, only Omar Vizquel's .400 SLG is lower than Casey's .402. Case has lost his pop for 2005. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.
