Tuesday, April 26, 2005
April Fools?
At the beginning of the month, as a clever "so-funny-you-forgot-to-laugh" type of joke, I switched my columns on the Reds and Angels pages. Some of you got it, others wrote me concerned e-mails about the unintentional mistake I had made (which concerns me that some of you find my writing so intolerable you can't even make it through 7 paragraphs, but that's another story). Like I attempted to do, are there some Reds who are attempting (even though not intentionally) to fool fantasy owners with their performances? One thing (one of very few) I've learned about fantasy baseball is this--if the calendar says April, things aren't necessarily what they seem. Let's take a look at some Reds and see if their Aprils should be considered "fools" or "fool's gold".
Sean Casey
Casey is fine, and shame on those of you who dropped him. And some of you did, because he's down to 96% in mixed leagues. I brazenly predicted that Casey "could" have all new career highs in '05. I declared him to be a top-5 1B. 70 ABs later, I'm not gonna change that, despite his slow start (you gotta stick by your guns, right?). I will say there are a few things to be worried about from early returns. Casey's G/F ratio is at a career high (2.00) right now, after being at a career low in '04 (1.33). Hard to hit HRs when you're keeping it on the ground like that. Also, so far he's fanned 10 times in 70 ABs. That could be catching from his teammates. Verdict? Casey is FOOLING you. The average and RBI are coming, but with only 3 XBH, that career high in HRs might not.
Joe Randa
We go across the diamond to the man who could've been the "new Mayor" after the first week. Randa homered 3 times in the first 4 games and his stock skyrocketed. He was hitting .406 on 4/15 and fans said, "Could he be reborn in Cincy?" Since hitting HR #4 on 4/17, he's had 2 hits, accounting for all of his .091 AVG this past week. We've seen the high and the low and the truth, as usual, lies somewhere in between. I mentioned that Randa could provide double-digit HRs in the preseason, but that everything else was average. I even gave him a trite, handy little nickname--Average Joe. You'll do well to remember that. Randa will hit better than his current .266 and he'll jack 15 or so, but his April is FOOL'S GOLD. He's still toward the bottom of NL 3B.
Aaron Harang
Aaron Harang has had one forgettable start against 3 really good ones. I mentioned that this could be Cincinnati's best pitcher this year and he's done absolutely nothing to prove me wrong so far. He did get touched up by STL (5 ER, 6 IP), and did give up 3 in 6 IP to HOU, but he fanned 8 Astros, and the pen blew his lead. His K/9 is 7.8 and he's gotten through the 6th inning in all of his starts. His BB/9 is a little high (3.7), but history says that will come down and his .221 OBA is legit and not deflated by good luck (29% hit rate). Harang's 1-1 record is FOOLING you--thankfully his 3.70 ERA is not. Harang is 27, developing, and unlike a lot of young pitchers, doesn't have a lot of innings on his arm. The 2.2% owned in mixed leagues will only last so long.
Danny Graves
This should be fairly obvious and you really don't need me to tell you, but Danny Graves is escaping just about every save by the hair of his chinny-chin-chin. If you hear he's is playing the lotto, follow him and play the exact same numbers. His last 6 outings (all save situations), he's given up at least 1 hit in all of them and at least 1 run in 4 of them. He's struck out 2 batters in 8.1 IP while walking 7. Are you kidding me? Graves has never had closer numbers, but if this continues (and to some degree, it will), this could be the year for a major meltdown (and not a good time because I don't see the Reds exercising his mutual option for '06). If you can find someone who is desperate for saves in your league (and someone always is), deal Graves because his April is FOOL'S GOLD.
The Red Cross
Ramon Ortiz is slated to appear in a rehab start for the Class A Sarasota Reds today. If all goes well, he'll have a bullpen session on Thursday in Milwaukee with the team. He's eligible to return, so as soon as he's ready he'll be back. Those of you in NL leagues and the 0.2% of you in mixed leagues who insist on rostering him have a light at the end of your tunnel. Wily Mo Pena is responding well to treatment on his quad, according to team trainer Mark Mann. "He's not quite 100%," Mann said, according to the team website, but I think we can expect him back soon. Luke Hudson is progressing well in rehab although there's still no timetable for him to start pitching in minor league games. He was slated to throw a simulated game on Monday, but no word yet on how that went.
Freel Freed? And a New E-Mail!
Will Ryan Freel be picking up regular PT? 6 starts in the last 7 games and a .346 AVG and .414 OBP in that span says that he will. Freel has bottomed out in mixed leagues at 22%. He's stolen 2 bases already and attempted 5. Miley has mentioned that he wants to run more but doesn't have enough speed to do it. Freel could definitely scratch that itch for the Skip. Plus, you're not going to be able to roster many multi-position eligible (2B, 3B, OF) guys with 30+ SB potential and AVG growth potential--unless you own Chone Figgins. Finally, I'll soon be a married man (25 days) and have a new address. My computer, however, is already with my bride-to-be. So, we go from "theredletters" to just redletters@insightbb.com. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to those Red Letters.
Sean Casey
Casey is fine, and shame on those of you who dropped him. And some of you did, because he's down to 96% in mixed leagues. I brazenly predicted that Casey "could" have all new career highs in '05. I declared him to be a top-5 1B. 70 ABs later, I'm not gonna change that, despite his slow start (you gotta stick by your guns, right?). I will say there are a few things to be worried about from early returns. Casey's G/F ratio is at a career high (2.00) right now, after being at a career low in '04 (1.33). Hard to hit HRs when you're keeping it on the ground like that. Also, so far he's fanned 10 times in 70 ABs. That could be catching from his teammates. Verdict? Casey is FOOLING you. The average and RBI are coming, but with only 3 XBH, that career high in HRs might not.
Joe Randa
We go across the diamond to the man who could've been the "new Mayor" after the first week. Randa homered 3 times in the first 4 games and his stock skyrocketed. He was hitting .406 on 4/15 and fans said, "Could he be reborn in Cincy?" Since hitting HR #4 on 4/17, he's had 2 hits, accounting for all of his .091 AVG this past week. We've seen the high and the low and the truth, as usual, lies somewhere in between. I mentioned that Randa could provide double-digit HRs in the preseason, but that everything else was average. I even gave him a trite, handy little nickname--Average Joe. You'll do well to remember that. Randa will hit better than his current .266 and he'll jack 15 or so, but his April is FOOL'S GOLD. He's still toward the bottom of NL 3B.
Aaron Harang
Aaron Harang has had one forgettable start against 3 really good ones. I mentioned that this could be Cincinnati's best pitcher this year and he's done absolutely nothing to prove me wrong so far. He did get touched up by STL (5 ER, 6 IP), and did give up 3 in 6 IP to HOU, but he fanned 8 Astros, and the pen blew his lead. His K/9 is 7.8 and he's gotten through the 6th inning in all of his starts. His BB/9 is a little high (3.7), but history says that will come down and his .221 OBA is legit and not deflated by good luck (29% hit rate). Harang's 1-1 record is FOOLING you--thankfully his 3.70 ERA is not. Harang is 27, developing, and unlike a lot of young pitchers, doesn't have a lot of innings on his arm. The 2.2% owned in mixed leagues will only last so long.
Danny Graves
This should be fairly obvious and you really don't need me to tell you, but Danny Graves is escaping just about every save by the hair of his chinny-chin-chin. If you hear he's is playing the lotto, follow him and play the exact same numbers. His last 6 outings (all save situations), he's given up at least 1 hit in all of them and at least 1 run in 4 of them. He's struck out 2 batters in 8.1 IP while walking 7. Are you kidding me? Graves has never had closer numbers, but if this continues (and to some degree, it will), this could be the year for a major meltdown (and not a good time because I don't see the Reds exercising his mutual option for '06). If you can find someone who is desperate for saves in your league (and someone always is), deal Graves because his April is FOOL'S GOLD.
The Red Cross
Ramon Ortiz is slated to appear in a rehab start for the Class A Sarasota Reds today. If all goes well, he'll have a bullpen session on Thursday in Milwaukee with the team. He's eligible to return, so as soon as he's ready he'll be back. Those of you in NL leagues and the 0.2% of you in mixed leagues who insist on rostering him have a light at the end of your tunnel. Wily Mo Pena is responding well to treatment on his quad, according to team trainer Mark Mann. "He's not quite 100%," Mann said, according to the team website, but I think we can expect him back soon. Luke Hudson is progressing well in rehab although there's still no timetable for him to start pitching in minor league games. He was slated to throw a simulated game on Monday, but no word yet on how that went.
Freel Freed? And a New E-Mail!
Will Ryan Freel be picking up regular PT? 6 starts in the last 7 games and a .346 AVG and .414 OBP in that span says that he will. Freel has bottomed out in mixed leagues at 22%. He's stolen 2 bases already and attempted 5. Miley has mentioned that he wants to run more but doesn't have enough speed to do it. Freel could definitely scratch that itch for the Skip. Plus, you're not going to be able to roster many multi-position eligible (2B, 3B, OF) guys with 30+ SB potential and AVG growth potential--unless you own Chone Figgins. Finally, I'll soon be a married man (25 days) and have a new address. My computer, however, is already with my bride-to-be. So, we go from "theredletters" to just redletters@insightbb.com. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to those Red Letters.
