The Red Letters

In what could be the last deal he ever signs with the Reds, Adam Dunn didn't go the arbitration route and locked up a deal on Monday. It's worth 4.6 million--which is pretty cheap considering Dunn left the yard 46 time last season (huh, 4.6 and 46…is there a hidden meaning?). Okay, inane conspiracy theories aside, Dunn could theorically go this route again next year in the final year before he's eligible for free agency, but another 46 bombs and 100+ RBI season and he may be too expensive for the Reds to even offer him arbitration. If AD stays healthy, and keeps his G/F ratio at last year's 0.66, you can surely expect another 40+ HR season, especially at GABP. Sadly, though, last year's .266 average was his best ever--and don't look for that to rise much with a 66% contact rate.

Kearns Will Have to Earn His Dough


Equally touted prospect, Austin Kearns, who was actually drafted in the 1st round in 1998 (before Dunn in the 2nd round) hasn't had quite the same luck as his friend and teammate. He's been hurt the last 2 years and is starting to hear his name murmured in the same breath with J.D. Drew in the oft-injured context. His 1-year deal was only valued at 930K. Kearns as well has been--and still is--mentioned as a possible trade option for the Reds. The Braves pushed pretty hard, but Cincinnati couldn't get what they wanted out of ATL, so it didn't happen. The 3B experiment apparently ended when the Reds signed Joe Randa earlier in the offseason, but don't be surprised if he still sees a little time at the hot corner this year. Or he could be traded by June. It's a little murky for now.

Arbitration Idiocy


I've followed Ramon Ortiz for just about a year now. He was with the Angels last season (my other correspondent spot) and I can't for the life of me figure out why he's bickering over 550K. I wouldn’t be offering what the Reds are offering, having seen what I have from him in the last year. This is a guy who's had 5.20 and 4.43 ERAs in the last two seasons, has posted a K/BB over 2 just twice in his 6 years of service, and has seen his G/F ratio drop from 1.67 in his rookie campaign to the 0.86 mark he had last season in a park that is much nicer to fly ball pitchers. If I'm Ramon Ortiz, I would be taking anything near 4 mil to the bank--but then this could really be his last chance to make big jack. GABP doesn't look like a ballpark that's going to be pretty for him.

While We're Speaking of Pitching…

…let me ask you this--is it disturbing to anyone else that the Reds have 5 spots open on the staff going into spring training? Does that bother anyone? Does it bother anyone that of the 7 spots that have been "claimed", 3 belong to extreme fly ball pitchers (Milton, Ortiz, Mercker)? Does it bother anyone that of those 7 pitchers who are assured of a job, only 2 (!) of those were with the team last year? Does it bother anyone that those 2 are Danny Graves and Paul Wilson? Yes, it's probably assured that 3 of the 5 spots "up for grabs" will go to Aaron Harang, Brandon Claussen, and Jose Acevedo, but this restructuring of the staff that Dan O'Brien has focused so much on looks like its best result in '05 might be assuring the '04 team ERA of 5.19 stays where it is.

Visa Isn't Everywhere You Want It to Be

Anderson Machado, Reds prospect who was slated to split time with Felipe Lopez at SS this season, is still stuck in Venezuela, unable to return to Cincinnati for a examination on his knee. He apparently suffered ligament damage while playing winter ball there last month, but for the all anyone knows he could have one of those little aliens trying to fight its way through the skin. The technology in Venezuela isn't close to what it is here and with visa and passport problems for Machado, getting out of the country and into Cincinnati is now as big of a problem as the knee. By my count (actually I used the Reds official site countdown clock), it's 24 days, until spring training. This is really unfortunate. Couldn't this have been avoided?

"At or Near 100%"…Uh-huh


Danny Boy was quoted by the Cincinnati Enquirer as saying that Ken Griffey Jr., 5 months after surgery to repair a torn right hamstring is "right on track and should be at or near 100% by spring training." Ok, Dan-O. No Kool-Aid, thanks. Look, I'll be the first to say that Junior has taken more grief that deserved for all his injuries, but I'm not sure we're ever going to see him at 100% again. Griffey can still put up decent-to-solid numbers if he were to play a full season, but he probably never will. And another thing--could someone please take 2 brain cells, rub them together, and decide that Junior's days in CF are over? Can we put him in RF? LF? Where he won't run so much? Is that too hard to conceive? I'm really slow, but I'd have done it long ago.

Promises, Promises

I realize my last column said that I'd have the complete breakdown of all the Reds moves, great and small coming up for this time. Well--not for the first time in my life--I didn't deliver. I'm still working on that and it's safe to say that it's not pretty. Maybe there's some psychological reason I haven't completed it yet in that I've subconsciously realized what horrible shape this team is in now and I've taken the "ignore-it-and-it-will-go-away" approach. As of now, the roster problems haven't, in fact, gone away, so I'll finish it and get it to you soon. I agree that it's no fun to be bleak in January, but some of these moves look like the precursor to what could be an extremely ugly episode of BattleBots. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.