Friday, July 09, 2004
Quarterly Ticker Report
We're halfway done. Teams can finally begin to justify the panic they feel in their Divisional Dungeons and set themselves up to make a run, give up, or for us fortunate enough to be in keepers, reload for next year. It may be almost mid-July, but there's still time to make a run with the right moves. There's not much time to keep saying "there's still time", but for now, you can.
What the Red Letters is going to do for you is take a brief look at those players that are being rostered by the fantasy GMs out there and devise a "market strategy" in a few words to fill you in on their value and how they can affect your team in the future. We've based those worthy of including on ESPN's ownership ratings for mixed and non-mixed leagues, and if a player is owned 50% or greater of either a mixed or NL league, then he'll be included in our report (All ownership percentages are as of 7/8). It's your RLS QTR (we like acronyms). Let's roll it.
The 100/100 Club: Fully owned in both mixed and NL leagues.
...Sean Casey: His .352 AVG will probably come back to earth a little. He's historically much better in the first half. He hits the hard enough to keep it well above .300 though...The power in the first half (15 HR) is for real. His G/F ratio is the lowest of his career by a landslide...If he's healthy, .320/30/100/100 will be on his 2005 baseball card for '04 stats...Adam Dunn: Contact percentage the lowest of his career. It's declined every season...50% of his career ABs feature one of three results--BB, K, HR. I can't decide what to make of that. Mucho bombs, high OBP, but plenty of whiffs in key situations. He can't be homering too much in the clutch with averages of 37 HR and only 85 RBI...Danny Graves: He's done well, but save opportunties are almost completely random. It could swing the other way...His K/9 is L-O-W for a closer (At 4.91, it's low for anyone really). He won't beat himself though, with only 5 BB. Great control. Is that enough? Might be a good sell...Ken Griffey, Jr.: His good average days are gone. Believe it. It'll probably get better than his current .252 though. I recently wrote that his power was waning--as it is--but considering where it used to be, it's still very good. Bet on 35 bombs as a floor...
The Rest of the Reds' Portfolio: Ownership listed as percentages (Mixed/NL)
...Jose Acevedo (4/64): Star in the making. 3.8 K/BB. Find that somewhere else on the waiver wire in mixed leagues...Only problem is his HR tendency. He's a flyball air-it-out type pitcher, so he'll most likely always be a little susceptible to that, but to this degree? Don't believe it...Ryan Freel 11/100: The NL owners have caught on. He's got speed, a developing eye, and a lot of heart, which can go a long way. His OBP and SB have risen every month this year (.408 OBP in June, 6 SB). He could be a solid player with his multi-position eligibility for several years with full time PT. Hitting .467 in July...Aaron Harang (0/36): Good control for a really young pitcher, perhaps too good. Needs to fool batters more before becoming consistently effective. Has got the stuff to do it...K/9 is 7, but BAA is .311...Definitely good for a spot start with favorable matchup...Biggest weakness is and has always been his stamina because of high early pitch counts...D'Angelo Jimenez (13/100): Expect AVG to rise in 2nd half. His plate disciple is too good for it not to...He's still developing and SB total will assuredly be the highest of his career in '04. Not blazing speed, but then there are very few of those guys...The dozen or so HRs he'll hit will mostly likely rise in subsequent years...Austin Kearns (18/96): Easily a 100/100 guy if he's healthy. He's due back in early August, supposedly at 100%. Remember that he's a little bit a slow healer, and the Reds have consistently pushed him out on the field at less than 100%...Good news--if he is fully recovered when he returns, he's a quick starter. He'll hit the ground running and the last five or six weeks could be a nice little jolt...Barry Larkin (2/100): At 40, expect more numerous days off, especially since he now plans to save some for next year...He's got no power left whatsoever. It seems very unlikely he'll get to 10 HR...Only way AVG doesn't go down is if he can keep slapping at pitches and taking them the other way. Expect a lot of singles and the occasional double down the line...Brandon Larson (0/64): Can't hit for AVG. Get used to it...I think I know why NL owners continue to roster him. Potential is a dangerous thing. He's got it. For fantasy, potential and performance are like salt and pepper though. He's 28 now, with an easily replaceable glove at 3B, and with only the occasional flash-in-the-pan power, I'd waive bye-bye quick...Jason LaRue (0/90): Was and always will be an AVG anchor. If an owner has to have some pop out of the C position, then he'll be decent help. I can't think of a reason to roster him for anyone not in that position...Cory Lidle (2/97): Not powerful (5.5 K/9), but has excellent control...Can have the occasional outstanding start, so not a bad call at all for a favorable spot start...Currently in the middle a fairly hot streak. Might be good to ride that out...Wily Mo Pena (0/97): Way too much of a free-swinger to be consistently productive. His troubles (and lack of improvement) against the breaking ball say that he's a difficult student for Chris Chambliss...Decent power and speed, but he won't develop with 2-3 starts a week. We'll probably never know how good he could've been with proper minor league development...Paul Wilson (66/100): I keep saying trade him, but the fact is he definitely won't hurt you, although his W/L total is deceiving...Doesn't fool hitters enough to be dominant, but hasn't had a horrendous start since 4/23. You could do a lot worse, especially in the NL...
That's a look at your QTR. Any further analysis needed should be addressed to theredletters@insightbb.com.
What the Red Letters is going to do for you is take a brief look at those players that are being rostered by the fantasy GMs out there and devise a "market strategy" in a few words to fill you in on their value and how they can affect your team in the future. We've based those worthy of including on ESPN's ownership ratings for mixed and non-mixed leagues, and if a player is owned 50% or greater of either a mixed or NL league, then he'll be included in our report (All ownership percentages are as of 7/8). It's your RLS QTR (we like acronyms). Let's roll it.
The 100/100 Club: Fully owned in both mixed and NL leagues.
...Sean Casey: His .352 AVG will probably come back to earth a little. He's historically much better in the first half. He hits the hard enough to keep it well above .300 though...The power in the first half (15 HR) is for real. His G/F ratio is the lowest of his career by a landslide...If he's healthy, .320/30/100/100 will be on his 2005 baseball card for '04 stats...Adam Dunn: Contact percentage the lowest of his career. It's declined every season...50% of his career ABs feature one of three results--BB, K, HR. I can't decide what to make of that. Mucho bombs, high OBP, but plenty of whiffs in key situations. He can't be homering too much in the clutch with averages of 37 HR and only 85 RBI...Danny Graves: He's done well, but save opportunties are almost completely random. It could swing the other way...His K/9 is L-O-W for a closer (At 4.91, it's low for anyone really). He won't beat himself though, with only 5 BB. Great control. Is that enough? Might be a good sell...Ken Griffey, Jr.: His good average days are gone. Believe it. It'll probably get better than his current .252 though. I recently wrote that his power was waning--as it is--but considering where it used to be, it's still very good. Bet on 35 bombs as a floor...
The Rest of the Reds' Portfolio: Ownership listed as percentages (Mixed/NL)
...Jose Acevedo (4/64): Star in the making. 3.8 K/BB. Find that somewhere else on the waiver wire in mixed leagues...Only problem is his HR tendency. He's a flyball air-it-out type pitcher, so he'll most likely always be a little susceptible to that, but to this degree? Don't believe it...Ryan Freel 11/100: The NL owners have caught on. He's got speed, a developing eye, and a lot of heart, which can go a long way. His OBP and SB have risen every month this year (.408 OBP in June, 6 SB). He could be a solid player with his multi-position eligibility for several years with full time PT. Hitting .467 in July...Aaron Harang (0/36): Good control for a really young pitcher, perhaps too good. Needs to fool batters more before becoming consistently effective. Has got the stuff to do it...K/9 is 7, but BAA is .311...Definitely good for a spot start with favorable matchup...Biggest weakness is and has always been his stamina because of high early pitch counts...D'Angelo Jimenez (13/100): Expect AVG to rise in 2nd half. His plate disciple is too good for it not to...He's still developing and SB total will assuredly be the highest of his career in '04. Not blazing speed, but then there are very few of those guys...The dozen or so HRs he'll hit will mostly likely rise in subsequent years...Austin Kearns (18/96): Easily a 100/100 guy if he's healthy. He's due back in early August, supposedly at 100%. Remember that he's a little bit a slow healer, and the Reds have consistently pushed him out on the field at less than 100%...Good news--if he is fully recovered when he returns, he's a quick starter. He'll hit the ground running and the last five or six weeks could be a nice little jolt...Barry Larkin (2/100): At 40, expect more numerous days off, especially since he now plans to save some for next year...He's got no power left whatsoever. It seems very unlikely he'll get to 10 HR...Only way AVG doesn't go down is if he can keep slapping at pitches and taking them the other way. Expect a lot of singles and the occasional double down the line...Brandon Larson (0/64): Can't hit for AVG. Get used to it...I think I know why NL owners continue to roster him. Potential is a dangerous thing. He's got it. For fantasy, potential and performance are like salt and pepper though. He's 28 now, with an easily replaceable glove at 3B, and with only the occasional flash-in-the-pan power, I'd waive bye-bye quick...Jason LaRue (0/90): Was and always will be an AVG anchor. If an owner has to have some pop out of the C position, then he'll be decent help. I can't think of a reason to roster him for anyone not in that position...Cory Lidle (2/97): Not powerful (5.5 K/9), but has excellent control...Can have the occasional outstanding start, so not a bad call at all for a favorable spot start...Currently in the middle a fairly hot streak. Might be good to ride that out...Wily Mo Pena (0/97): Way too much of a free-swinger to be consistently productive. His troubles (and lack of improvement) against the breaking ball say that he's a difficult student for Chris Chambliss...Decent power and speed, but he won't develop with 2-3 starts a week. We'll probably never know how good he could've been with proper minor league development...Paul Wilson (66/100): I keep saying trade him, but the fact is he definitely won't hurt you, although his W/L total is deceiving...Doesn't fool hitters enough to be dominant, but hasn't had a horrendous start since 4/23. You could do a lot worse, especially in the NL...
That's a look at your QTR. Any further analysis needed should be addressed to theredletters@insightbb.com.
