Wednesday, July 07, 2004
Barry, Barry, Quite Contrary
The Reds had set aside October 2 as Barry Larkin Retirement Day, planning to honor the career-long Red with a pre-game ceremony to send him on his way to hanging up his uniform and preparing his Hall of Fame speech. Around 240 ABs later, hitting .290 with 31 RBI and 40 runs scored--not to mention his 12th All-Star selection--Barry has decided he may not want that fond farewell in October. That way he can't be Roger Clemens Part Deux. Now, Lark's played in 66 games in '04, but only started in 58 of them. That's already over 20 missed. With a SLG of .402 and an OPS of .746, he's clearly walking and slapping his way to a successful season. That's all well and good, but unless he's willing to play for $700K again, he will have to leave Cincy. Barry, we love ya, but the sunset's callin'.
81 Games In: Buy or Sell?
The All-Star Break is still in front of us, but the Reds are already halfway finished with their regular season. Now 7 games back of first after losing the first 2 of 3 to the Cards, is it time to write off the season to what everyone thought it would be--a 4th or 5th place finish in the Central? Well, the stretch ahead is very important, and the Reds could very well end up being sellers by the time the 31st rolls around, but remember that they're only 2 games back from the Wild Card. The problem? Several teams in the race with them--Chicago, Houston, Florida, and Los Angeles--all have better pitching and it doesn't appear as if the Reds have any intention to add an arm before the deadline (even if there was actually a quality arm available). Prognosis: cloudy. Dark clouds, though.
500...501's Next Right?
I'm not sure if it's because Griffey can't count beyond 500, but for some reason he's having trouble hitting 501. Why? Well, despite Griffey's impressive HR total this season, he's really not as powerful as he's making us all believe. What happened was--Griff got hot. In May, he hit 10 of his 19 bombs and slugged .620. That's pretty much been it. His other three months of slugging percentage? .407 (April), .477 (June) , .429 (July). Only one of those is above league average. Sure, he hit 6 homers in June, but you saw the slugging and the average was .239. Griffey has 6 hits thus far in July--all singles. Not exactly the slugger he seems to be. Without May, he's slugging .459. Johnny Damon's SLG is .457 (7 HR). Mark Loretta SLG: .463 (7 HR). Not exactly bashing company.
Holy Sanchez
Who is this Jesus Sanchez guy? Does his name give any indication that he could be the savior of this rotation, despite that it's pronounced differently? He had a good spring, but the short answer is 'no'. He was in the Colorado system last year and with the Iowa Cubs in '02, but in both of those seasons he showed simply a marginal propensity for striking batters out while displaying lackluster control. He's started and relieved and posted unimpressive stats in both roles. There's apparently been a little bad luck in his past, but nothing that overshadows the fact that this is not the guy to throw in the mix with the Reds trying to turn it around. Oh, yeah, he's 29. Van Poppel is a better option. Neither is a good fantasy option, so before you think about picking him up. . .don't.
"Ace"-vedo
I'm not gonna quit trumpeting this guy's potential. I understand he's 4-7 with a 5.20 ERA, but his K/BB ratio is 3.21. That's outstanding. For comparison, Matt Clement (2.83 ERA) ratio is 3.1. Mark Prior: 2.8. Roger Clemens (10-2): 2.5. Freddy Garcia: 2.9. Other than the HR problem (and that's a big one), Acevedo is zooming right along. How easy would it be to acquire a 4-7 pitcher with very little name recognition? Very easy. 5% owned in mixed leagues. Just 64% owned in NL leagues. He'll have the rough start now and again, and may just be good as a future pick for a struggling keeper team, but Jose Acevedo will be what his name implies. Print this off. Post it on your wall. And if you're doing that, you might as well pick him up in the meantime.
Big Matchup a-Brewin'
Two teams, both on the cusp of being right in the thick of the NL Central race. Two teams with a shortage of superstars--and super cash--that have prohibited them from competing for the postseason for years. Two teams that are both "overachieving", considering those factors and that they are a combined +9 in the Pythagorean standings which, for those of you who don't know, measures what a team's record "should" be according to their runs scored versus their runs allowed. They are #1 and #3 in the NL on the plus side, the Brewers run differential at 0 and the Reds at -46. The momentum of this series will carry one of these teams into the second half with a real chance at possibly winning the division (however unlikely). Who said a series in July couldn't be huge?
Quality Over Quantity
Sorry to say, but the Reds Report website is being discontinued for now. I just don't have the manpower (considering it's only me) to keep it updated when I have Anaheim correspondent duties as well. I will, however, focus on making the Red Letters site even better, with extra columns and analysis that will only appear there (think DVD special features). Sometimes everything that needs to be said can't be covered in seven blocks anyway. Coming soon at the Red Letters, I'm taking a look at mid-season report cards and seeing whether Reds that are being rostered by fantasy owners are making the grade. We'll see what to expect for the second half and beyond. Check that out at theredletters.blogspot.com. I'm Matt Allen and this one belongs to the Red Letters.
81 Games In: Buy or Sell?
The All-Star Break is still in front of us, but the Reds are already halfway finished with their regular season. Now 7 games back of first after losing the first 2 of 3 to the Cards, is it time to write off the season to what everyone thought it would be--a 4th or 5th place finish in the Central? Well, the stretch ahead is very important, and the Reds could very well end up being sellers by the time the 31st rolls around, but remember that they're only 2 games back from the Wild Card. The problem? Several teams in the race with them--Chicago, Houston, Florida, and Los Angeles--all have better pitching and it doesn't appear as if the Reds have any intention to add an arm before the deadline (even if there was actually a quality arm available). Prognosis: cloudy. Dark clouds, though.
500...501's Next Right?
I'm not sure if it's because Griffey can't count beyond 500, but for some reason he's having trouble hitting 501. Why? Well, despite Griffey's impressive HR total this season, he's really not as powerful as he's making us all believe. What happened was--Griff got hot. In May, he hit 10 of his 19 bombs and slugged .620. That's pretty much been it. His other three months of slugging percentage? .407 (April), .477 (June) , .429 (July). Only one of those is above league average. Sure, he hit 6 homers in June, but you saw the slugging and the average was .239. Griffey has 6 hits thus far in July--all singles. Not exactly the slugger he seems to be. Without May, he's slugging .459. Johnny Damon's SLG is .457 (7 HR). Mark Loretta SLG: .463 (7 HR). Not exactly bashing company.
Holy Sanchez
Who is this Jesus Sanchez guy? Does his name give any indication that he could be the savior of this rotation, despite that it's pronounced differently? He had a good spring, but the short answer is 'no'. He was in the Colorado system last year and with the Iowa Cubs in '02, but in both of those seasons he showed simply a marginal propensity for striking batters out while displaying lackluster control. He's started and relieved and posted unimpressive stats in both roles. There's apparently been a little bad luck in his past, but nothing that overshadows the fact that this is not the guy to throw in the mix with the Reds trying to turn it around. Oh, yeah, he's 29. Van Poppel is a better option. Neither is a good fantasy option, so before you think about picking him up. . .don't.
"Ace"-vedo
I'm not gonna quit trumpeting this guy's potential. I understand he's 4-7 with a 5.20 ERA, but his K/BB ratio is 3.21. That's outstanding. For comparison, Matt Clement (2.83 ERA) ratio is 3.1. Mark Prior: 2.8. Roger Clemens (10-2): 2.5. Freddy Garcia: 2.9. Other than the HR problem (and that's a big one), Acevedo is zooming right along. How easy would it be to acquire a 4-7 pitcher with very little name recognition? Very easy. 5% owned in mixed leagues. Just 64% owned in NL leagues. He'll have the rough start now and again, and may just be good as a future pick for a struggling keeper team, but Jose Acevedo will be what his name implies. Print this off. Post it on your wall. And if you're doing that, you might as well pick him up in the meantime.
Big Matchup a-Brewin'
Two teams, both on the cusp of being right in the thick of the NL Central race. Two teams with a shortage of superstars--and super cash--that have prohibited them from competing for the postseason for years. Two teams that are both "overachieving", considering those factors and that they are a combined +9 in the Pythagorean standings which, for those of you who don't know, measures what a team's record "should" be according to their runs scored versus their runs allowed. They are #1 and #3 in the NL on the plus side, the Brewers run differential at 0 and the Reds at -46. The momentum of this series will carry one of these teams into the second half with a real chance at possibly winning the division (however unlikely). Who said a series in July couldn't be huge?
Quality Over Quantity
Sorry to say, but the Reds Report website is being discontinued for now. I just don't have the manpower (considering it's only me) to keep it updated when I have Anaheim correspondent duties as well. I will, however, focus on making the Red Letters site even better, with extra columns and analysis that will only appear there (think DVD special features). Sometimes everything that needs to be said can't be covered in seven blocks anyway. Coming soon at the Red Letters, I'm taking a look at mid-season report cards and seeing whether Reds that are being rostered by fantasy owners are making the grade. We'll see what to expect for the second half and beyond. Check that out at theredletters.blogspot.com. I'm Matt Allen and this one belongs to the Red Letters.
