Tuesday, June 29, 2004
Red. . .Alert?
I went to Great American this weekend feeling rather positive about the Reds and their run for the NL Central this year, as the NL's best home team started a 9-game homestand. I left on Sunday seeing the signs of a team that could be headed for a meltdown. Why did my outlook change so much over just three measly games? Well, some of that I'll discuss in here, but what's fortunate is the signs point to a much worse fate for Reds fans than they do for Reds fantasy owners. The Expos are in last and still have viable (albeit much fewer) fantasy options. Same with the Diamondbacks and Royals. After this weekend, I've seen first hand that the last place Pirates sure do. If the Reds don't turn it around soon, they could be headed for a mention in the same breath with that group.
Agent Smith: "It is. . .Inevitable"
The incomparable Matrix villain would smirk ever so slightly when looking at the Reds rotation numbers over the past month and say just that. No one thought this Reds team had anything remotely resembling a fine staff, but to date they've managed to prove doubters wrong and keep the Reds in the race. I'm afraid, however, that the slow decay. . .the "sound of inevitability". . .the sound of the Reds rotation's death could be on the airwaves soon (could you hear my Hugo Weaving cadence in there?). Look at these troubling numbers over the last 30 days: 4-8 record, 5.65 ERA, 1.58 WHIP. The K/BB is marginal at 1.9, and they've had decent control, but the peripheral numbers show nothing that would predict a rebound or resurgence of success. Any hidden performances?
You know I'm high on Acevedo, but he gave up another bomb on Friday, which accounted for 3 of his 4 runs. Otherwise, he looked fine. Harang looked rusty--which is expected--and it showed in his endurance. If he could ever go deeper into games, he'd be a help. I picked up Lidle for tomorrow, but I'm holding my breath. Bottom line, I wouldn't own any Reds starter (save Acevedo. . .and maybe Lidle for a spot start). That includes Paul Wilson. You've got to trade them all now or waive bye-bye. Because it seems that, at least for the foreseeable future, the decline of Reds rotation performance--and thus most likely the team--is. . .well, inevitable.
Mighty Casey May Sit Out
Sean Casey had his MRI and is currently listed as day-to-day, but a very negative feeling surrounds this latest tweak. More and more reports pop up that talk about his continued trouble with that left leg over the season. He's been fighting a big injury all year and with continued playing time, it may be just a matter of time. Can the Reds afford to sit him out? No, which is why he'll be in there ASAP. On Friday on ESPN Radio, I declared this was not the time to sell high on Casey, but you might wanna put some feelers out if he comes back quick. Right now, you should be able to get some great value for him (assuming they don't read me). Sure, he could finish strong and hit 30+ HRs and hit .350, but the possibility of a weeks-long DL stint is becoming more possible.
Kearns Needs a Hand
The SuperGloves for Austin Kearns will arrive in Cincinnati today. Austin will try and resume regular baseball activities and see if he can make himself ready to get back in the lineup. What no one wants to say is that this is the last ditch effort. If this doesn't fix or even mask the problem, AK is due for trip under the knife. Then he's out weeks to get rid of all the bone spurs in this thumb. I'm still in favor of just going ahead and doing it--the Reds are where they are without any significant help from Kearns this year. His bat is not going to change the flow enough to win the division, especially at less than 100% strength, which he is. I'll say it again--Kearns is not valuable unless he's completely healthy. Right now he's not. Don't bother with Kearns any time soon.
We've Come to This?
Griffey is 1-27 since #500. Casey is hurt. It's June 29th and Dunn has already fanned 93 times. Brandon Larson has again failed with more PT by hitting .178 in June. Larkin has missed half of the Reds games this month. Who's left? How about Juan Castro, who's hitting .409 in June. Castro has been forever described as a hitter as "having a really good glove", so this month's raking is entirely out of place. Is it "for real", as they say? I'd say not. Castro has improved his hitting over the years, but this .409 is only over 22 ABs, although what's wrong with picking up someone in a utility spot while they're hot? He'll mainly help you with average and that's about it, but this is indeed what it's come to. Right now, Castro is as hot as they've got.
PT Issues
I seem to be getting a lot of mail regarding PT issues with players like Freel, Pena, Larson, and Hummel. Right now they're in a deadly fantasy melting pot with each other along with Cruz and Clark that only serves to curb what value any of them will have (and only Freel and Pena would have any to begin with). Miley has shown no indication of any front runners to this mix, although with Casey out temporarily, Hummel will probably get some time at first. Another possibility is Dunn coming to first, allowing Freel to play third and Pena to play left. Hope for that. Otherwise, it's more of a super sub situation for all of them, which should leave you looking for other options. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.
Agent Smith: "It is. . .Inevitable"
The incomparable Matrix villain would smirk ever so slightly when looking at the Reds rotation numbers over the past month and say just that. No one thought this Reds team had anything remotely resembling a fine staff, but to date they've managed to prove doubters wrong and keep the Reds in the race. I'm afraid, however, that the slow decay. . .the "sound of inevitability". . .the sound of the Reds rotation's death could be on the airwaves soon (could you hear my Hugo Weaving cadence in there?). Look at these troubling numbers over the last 30 days: 4-8 record, 5.65 ERA, 1.58 WHIP. The K/BB is marginal at 1.9, and they've had decent control, but the peripheral numbers show nothing that would predict a rebound or resurgence of success. Any hidden performances?
You know I'm high on Acevedo, but he gave up another bomb on Friday, which accounted for 3 of his 4 runs. Otherwise, he looked fine. Harang looked rusty--which is expected--and it showed in his endurance. If he could ever go deeper into games, he'd be a help. I picked up Lidle for tomorrow, but I'm holding my breath. Bottom line, I wouldn't own any Reds starter (save Acevedo. . .and maybe Lidle for a spot start). That includes Paul Wilson. You've got to trade them all now or waive bye-bye. Because it seems that, at least for the foreseeable future, the decline of Reds rotation performance--and thus most likely the team--is. . .well, inevitable.
Mighty Casey May Sit Out
Sean Casey had his MRI and is currently listed as day-to-day, but a very negative feeling surrounds this latest tweak. More and more reports pop up that talk about his continued trouble with that left leg over the season. He's been fighting a big injury all year and with continued playing time, it may be just a matter of time. Can the Reds afford to sit him out? No, which is why he'll be in there ASAP. On Friday on ESPN Radio, I declared this was not the time to sell high on Casey, but you might wanna put some feelers out if he comes back quick. Right now, you should be able to get some great value for him (assuming they don't read me). Sure, he could finish strong and hit 30+ HRs and hit .350, but the possibility of a weeks-long DL stint is becoming more possible.
Kearns Needs a Hand
The SuperGloves for Austin Kearns will arrive in Cincinnati today. Austin will try and resume regular baseball activities and see if he can make himself ready to get back in the lineup. What no one wants to say is that this is the last ditch effort. If this doesn't fix or even mask the problem, AK is due for trip under the knife. Then he's out weeks to get rid of all the bone spurs in this thumb. I'm still in favor of just going ahead and doing it--the Reds are where they are without any significant help from Kearns this year. His bat is not going to change the flow enough to win the division, especially at less than 100% strength, which he is. I'll say it again--Kearns is not valuable unless he's completely healthy. Right now he's not. Don't bother with Kearns any time soon.
We've Come to This?
Griffey is 1-27 since #500. Casey is hurt. It's June 29th and Dunn has already fanned 93 times. Brandon Larson has again failed with more PT by hitting .178 in June. Larkin has missed half of the Reds games this month. Who's left? How about Juan Castro, who's hitting .409 in June. Castro has been forever described as a hitter as "having a really good glove", so this month's raking is entirely out of place. Is it "for real", as they say? I'd say not. Castro has improved his hitting over the years, but this .409 is only over 22 ABs, although what's wrong with picking up someone in a utility spot while they're hot? He'll mainly help you with average and that's about it, but this is indeed what it's come to. Right now, Castro is as hot as they've got.
PT Issues
I seem to be getting a lot of mail regarding PT issues with players like Freel, Pena, Larson, and Hummel. Right now they're in a deadly fantasy melting pot with each other along with Cruz and Clark that only serves to curb what value any of them will have (and only Freel and Pena would have any to begin with). Miley has shown no indication of any front runners to this mix, although with Casey out temporarily, Hummel will probably get some time at first. Another possibility is Dunn coming to first, allowing Freel to play third and Pena to play left. Hope for that. Otherwise, it's more of a super sub situation for all of them, which should leave you looking for other options. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.
