Friday, September 17, 2004
Dog Days of Summer
The term was coined because early Greeks and Romans thought that Sirius, the Dog Star, which rises with or just before the sun during this time of year, actually was the cause of the extra heat as well. It's also been described as a period of inactivity, which if you've been checking this page any lately, you know that that's certainly been the case here. Whether it was the Olympics (which I've been consuming in large bites), mail order movies (free trials are great), or the resurgence of my comic book collecting (Batman, is, and probably always will be, my hero), I've had a little time to recharge my batteries. My ears haven't been glued to the baseball news wire as they've been for much of the year, but I've kept an eye on things for you. Let's get started.
Ch-ch-ch-ch-changes
A lot has happened since I updated last--Griffey bowed out early again, Felipe Lopez went on a tear, Kearns is back and not better than ever, and the Reds have settled right down into the mediocrity they so desperately tried to avoid in the first half of the season. What does any of it mean? Well, with the true emergence of Pena in the outfield, the Reds face yet another Four's-A-Crowd decision. Griffey has 10-5 immunity and the right to veto any trade, so it's not a lock the Reds could trade him in '05 considering they've deferred money on his contract that pays out until 2024. Sheesh. Who goes, though? Lopez had some terrible luck with a 22% hit rate early and a little too much good luck with a 36% hit rate lately, but the end result is better than his current .239 AVG.
He's learning to draw the walk a little more and remember that he's only 24. There's definitely time for growth. Kearns is 4-14 in his first four games back from his extended stay on the DL after hand surgery, and while he could give your fantasy team a jolt in this last four weeks or so considering his history as a quick starter (.344 April average in '01-'03), with his injury problems this year, he's at best a high-risk/high-reward proposition. As for that mediocrity I was speaking of, a team ERA over 5.00 the last three months will certainly lend itself to that description as well as a team AVG of .261 or lower over the same span. The only position that's hitting over .280 is the 3 hole. Sean Casey, anyone? Even with his .337 clip, it only lifts that spot to a season-long .298.
How Do You Spell Relief? No, Really. . .
This bullpen is, uh, somethin' else, to put it nicely. The lowest active ERA on the team right now outta the pen is Phil Norton's crowd-pleasing 4.50. By comparison, the NL West-leading LA Dodgers don't have an active reliever with an ERA over 3.68 (Carrara). Boy, Giovanni Carrara must really get razzed for having such a high ERA. He oughta be ashamed of himself. The Dodgers would probably love to get rid of a bullpen liability like that. The Reds' worst? That'd be Mr. Joe Valentine at 7.71. In fantasy terms, while Graves is out, no option for saves in the Reds bullpen is a good one. Miley says he'll likely go committee anyway, so go with the best available--which is either Norton (even though he's a lefty) or new reliever Jose Acevedo.
What's Red and White and Starts All Over?
Ryan Freel, of course. He's started 9 times at 2B, 44 at 3B, 11 in LF, 16 in CF, and 21 in RF. He's shown speed, toughness, and a hustle that all players can envy. Now, while only one of those traits really help fantasy owners, Freel has not only provided 28 steals but also a respectable .273 AVG and a very soild .377 OBP. He has more SBs that RBI and his SLG is lower than his OBP, but when you see a guy steal second base on a pitchout (which Freel did Friday night), you know that he can certainly help rack up the steals. I'm not saying that D-Backs starter Brandon Webb and catcher Chris Synder didn't have a hand in that by, well, just being wholly inadequate, but Freel has speed and position eligibility you can use. Being available in 25% of mixed leagues, you might take a look.
Just Haranging Around
Aaron Harang came over from the A's last year in the Jose Guillen deal. He's shown a lot of potential but also ineptitude in economizing his pitches when it's needed. He's only seen the 7th inning 5 times all season (22 starts). Then comes his 3-hit shutout of the St. Louis Cardinals, the best team in baseball, Thursday night. He's walked more than 3 batters only twice all year and fanned at least 4 in all but 7 of his starts, going over 7 in three of them. Here's a pitcher who's still young at 26, never having thrown over 100 innings in a season. So the arm's fresh. The problem is that this year he projects out to 162 IP, 90 more than last season. That could spell trouble should the Reds decide to let him keep going late into games--not this year necessarily, but maybe for 2005.
Odds and Ends
The Reds play 16 of the next 22 at Great American Ball Park, with only 4 of them against teams with a legitimate shot at making the postseason. Now might be a good time to make a run for a over-.500 record and 3rd place in the NL Central. Yeah, it's not the playoffs, but considering where most people picked Cincinnati to finish, '04 could still be considered a mild success. . .Don't blame the rotation. Reds' starters have offered up an outstanding 2.05 ERA in the last 9 games. Record during the stretch? 5-4. . .Despite the drop in the standings, the Reds still have managed to fill on average over 70% of the seats for their home games this year, their highest this young century. Props to the fans. Until next time, I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.
Ch-ch-ch-ch-changes
A lot has happened since I updated last--Griffey bowed out early again, Felipe Lopez went on a tear, Kearns is back and not better than ever, and the Reds have settled right down into the mediocrity they so desperately tried to avoid in the first half of the season. What does any of it mean? Well, with the true emergence of Pena in the outfield, the Reds face yet another Four's-A-Crowd decision. Griffey has 10-5 immunity and the right to veto any trade, so it's not a lock the Reds could trade him in '05 considering they've deferred money on his contract that pays out until 2024. Sheesh. Who goes, though? Lopez had some terrible luck with a 22% hit rate early and a little too much good luck with a 36% hit rate lately, but the end result is better than his current .239 AVG.
He's learning to draw the walk a little more and remember that he's only 24. There's definitely time for growth. Kearns is 4-14 in his first four games back from his extended stay on the DL after hand surgery, and while he could give your fantasy team a jolt in this last four weeks or so considering his history as a quick starter (.344 April average in '01-'03), with his injury problems this year, he's at best a high-risk/high-reward proposition. As for that mediocrity I was speaking of, a team ERA over 5.00 the last three months will certainly lend itself to that description as well as a team AVG of .261 or lower over the same span. The only position that's hitting over .280 is the 3 hole. Sean Casey, anyone? Even with his .337 clip, it only lifts that spot to a season-long .298.
How Do You Spell Relief? No, Really. . .
This bullpen is, uh, somethin' else, to put it nicely. The lowest active ERA on the team right now outta the pen is Phil Norton's crowd-pleasing 4.50. By comparison, the NL West-leading LA Dodgers don't have an active reliever with an ERA over 3.68 (Carrara). Boy, Giovanni Carrara must really get razzed for having such a high ERA. He oughta be ashamed of himself. The Dodgers would probably love to get rid of a bullpen liability like that. The Reds' worst? That'd be Mr. Joe Valentine at 7.71. In fantasy terms, while Graves is out, no option for saves in the Reds bullpen is a good one. Miley says he'll likely go committee anyway, so go with the best available--which is either Norton (even though he's a lefty) or new reliever Jose Acevedo.
What's Red and White and Starts All Over?
Ryan Freel, of course. He's started 9 times at 2B, 44 at 3B, 11 in LF, 16 in CF, and 21 in RF. He's shown speed, toughness, and a hustle that all players can envy. Now, while only one of those traits really help fantasy owners, Freel has not only provided 28 steals but also a respectable .273 AVG and a very soild .377 OBP. He has more SBs that RBI and his SLG is lower than his OBP, but when you see a guy steal second base on a pitchout (which Freel did Friday night), you know that he can certainly help rack up the steals. I'm not saying that D-Backs starter Brandon Webb and catcher Chris Synder didn't have a hand in that by, well, just being wholly inadequate, but Freel has speed and position eligibility you can use. Being available in 25% of mixed leagues, you might take a look.
Just Haranging Around
Aaron Harang came over from the A's last year in the Jose Guillen deal. He's shown a lot of potential but also ineptitude in economizing his pitches when it's needed. He's only seen the 7th inning 5 times all season (22 starts). Then comes his 3-hit shutout of the St. Louis Cardinals, the best team in baseball, Thursday night. He's walked more than 3 batters only twice all year and fanned at least 4 in all but 7 of his starts, going over 7 in three of them. Here's a pitcher who's still young at 26, never having thrown over 100 innings in a season. So the arm's fresh. The problem is that this year he projects out to 162 IP, 90 more than last season. That could spell trouble should the Reds decide to let him keep going late into games--not this year necessarily, but maybe for 2005.
Odds and Ends
The Reds play 16 of the next 22 at Great American Ball Park, with only 4 of them against teams with a legitimate shot at making the postseason. Now might be a good time to make a run for a over-.500 record and 3rd place in the NL Central. Yeah, it's not the playoffs, but considering where most people picked Cincinnati to finish, '04 could still be considered a mild success. . .Don't blame the rotation. Reds' starters have offered up an outstanding 2.05 ERA in the last 9 games. Record during the stretch? 5-4. . .Despite the drop in the standings, the Reds still have managed to fill on average over 70% of the seats for their home games this year, their highest this young century. Props to the fans. Until next time, I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.
