The Red Letters

Give 'em time. The front office wasn't ready to dump anyone by the July 31st deadline, but Dan O'Brien & Co. made a deal today that sent Cory Lidle to the Phillies for two Low-A prospects from the Lakewood Blueclaws named Javon Morgan and Joe Wilson. Oh, and don't forget the extra "Player-to-Be-Named-Later" as well. Now, don't get me wrong--I'm not against the deal in principle. The word was Lidle had no intention of resigning next year and the idea now that the Reds are basically not going to the playoffs would be to get something for him. I get it. Two Low-A prospects though? Yes, I know Lidle's ERA is 5.32 and his WHIP is 1.44, but his K/BB is 2.1 and he's had 3 CGs this season. Lidle's K/BB has only been under 2 one time in his career--last year.

It seems that the Reds should have been able to get more. What did they get? Well, there's certainly at least some potential there. For all the weight that A ball stats carry (a very nice way to say basically no weight at all), Moran has 41 SB in the South Atlantic League this year, which is 4th in the league. Looking at his stats reminds me of an undeveloped Ryan Freel. Only Freel can play anywhere. Do the Reds need another young OF right now? Wilson looks to be a little less impressive--at least so far. The only stat that was eye-catching from Lakewood was his ability to keep the ball in the park (0.2 HR/9). But, he's a lefty and O'Brien says maybe he could start one day. Maybe I could too. I'll let you know what Danny Boy says. Deal grade from the first glance for CIN: C.

Acevedo Needs Relief; Goes to Pen Himself

The Reds moved Jose Acevedo to the pen on a conditional basis to try the 4-man rotation for now. JA will start when the days off won't allow for the others to get normal rest, but will otherwise pitch in relief. The question after today's deal is--who's that 4th starter? It could turn out that Acevedo is back in the rotation before he knows it. For now, the Reds will fill Lidle's spot with Josh Hancock. It's easy to understand the Acevedo move though. Jose's ERA in July was 9.67. Items of note: what was sour was his control. BB total April-June: 18. BB total July: 18. His HRs, which were a huge problem earlier, actually went down. It was still 4 in 6 starts, but for Jose even that was improvement. I stand by my many endorsements of him. He'll come around.

Reds and the Red Cross

Griffey is supposed to start on Tuesday against the Dodgers. As I said before, he has a history of easing back into the lineup once activated and this time will be no different. I wouldn't start him until he plays back-to-back days. Larkin still hasn't started since July 24. Both he and Junior got treatment on Monday and Barry hopes to see his name in the starting lineup as well Tuesday. Barry's days of playing regularly are probably over, but if you're strapped at SS, he has played well when he's been in there. Finally, Kearns has taken the last two nights off for the AAA Bats but he's gone 6-16 with 6 R and 2 RBI thus far in his rehab assignment. He'll be ready to go when he comes back in about a week. Will he play every day? It's not a lock, that's for sure.

Cooling Off?

Has Mr. Pena, who dropped from being hot property (93% owned) to this week's 61%, cooled off as much as his ESPN fantasy leaguers suggest? Not exactly. His contact % in August is still awful (62%), but his SLG is .528 and OPS is .854. To expect some slumps when his BB/K is 0.22 is wise, especially when combined with his contact %, but he's also capable of having 5 RBI days like he did on Sunday. Wily Mo is high-risk, high-reward right now. It would be silly to suggest that a player with 429 career ABs could keep up the pace he was setting, so what might be considered a little lull now could be an opportunity for you to pick him up. Like I said, it is quite the risk, but for a guy who could be an every day player next year at 23, it might be worth the roster spot in a keeper.

The Save: A Fickle, Fickle Statistic

Danny Graves had 33 saves at the All-Star Break and a lot of voices were calling for the engraver of the MLB record book to get ready to stencil in Graves' name above Bobby Thigpen for the most saves in a single season (Thigpen had 57 in 1990). In the 2nd half, Graves has had 3 save opportunities. That's it. He had a save op in 45% of games in the first-half and now he's only had them in 13% in the second half. Yeah, the Reds are losing more, so save ops will go down, but overall success has little to do with getting them. Proof? The top five teams in save opportunities this year? Reds, Marlins, Yankees, Giants, Brewers. That's 4th, 3rd, 1st, 3rd, and 5th in their divisions. Get the point? It's a crapshoot. Drafting a closer in the first 10 rounds of any draft may be foolish.

Fun With Numbers

The Reds are 27th (.220) in MLB in AVG with runners in scoring position and two outs. Only SF, MIN, and MIL are worse. Reds' leadoff hitters are hitting .249 this season but at least their OBP is .367. The 2 hole has an OBP of .302 though--not exactly setting up the heart of the order. The Reds are hitting .244 against the NL Central, which they're up against in 33 of their final 51 games. Their record against the Central? 25-32. They're above .500 against the other two divisions. The Reds are 2-11 against the Redbirds in '04, but then no one plays the Cards well. Adam Dunn has had 112 chances to hit into a DP and has only done so 3 times. Impressive. Of course, his G/F is 0.56. That helps. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to The Red Letters.