Wednesday, July 21, 2004
No Excuses
As of July 20, the Reds, even without Griffey and Kearns, find themselves in 2nd, 9.5 games back of the Cards. That's right--ahead of the Cubs and Astros--two games back of the Wild Card. What this means is that ownership has no excuses to sell this July and we shouldn't be seeing a sequel to last year's Great American Flea Market. Will the Reds bolster the lineup? Doubtful. Who can they add? Kris Benson might be the only "big name" that may be in their price range, and it's doubtful they can get him. It's not for lack of money though. Reds attendance is up to over 30,000 per game this year, filling over 70% of the stadium. That ranks in the top dozen capacity percentage and is up from 29K last year (in a brand new park) and 23K from '01 and '02. Gotta be in for the long haul in '04. No excuses.
The Fastest Mouse in All of O-hi-o
Apologies to Coco Crisp, whose name sounds like a cartoon mouse, but Ryan Freel is still burning up the basepaths, with more SB than RBI and a higher OBP than SLG, and making a name for himself as the speediest guy in Buckeye baseball. He's stolen 18 bases this year as will probably lead off the rest of the season. He's still a cheap guy to get, owned in only 28% of mixed leagues, and he's now 5th in the NL in SB. He's also 4th in NL SB % per time on base at 21%. He's gonna run and he's gonna be on base, with a .408 OBP in June and a .415 clip in July. Although he's only walked once in July, his contact % is 88, so he's putting the ball in play regularly. His plate patience has really grown this year, and Freel would be an excellent pickup in all leagues.
Wily Mo Cerrano
Less than a month ago, I said Wily Mo deserved PT just as much as Austin Kearns did. If you happened to believe that and picked him up on the very day I wrote it, you would've been the beneficiary of 7 HR and 20 RBI. Wily Mo still has major trouble hitting the breaking ball, but he's slightly improving his plate patience in the last week or so and not literally swinging at every pitch thrown in his general direction. I maintain with the proper time to allow his skills to grow, he could be better than Austin Kearns and possibly creep into Adam Dunn territory. Two caveats for short-term performance--much of the league still hasn't faced him enough to begin to really exploit his weaknesses because he's never had regular PT. That leads to caveat #2. His current contact % is 69. Yikes.
Does Claussen Really Have Claws?
How's this for definitive? We'll see. He had a much better year in '02 with the NYY organization than last year with the Yankees/Reds. He's coming off Tommy John surgery, but his K/9 this season at AAA was back up around his pre-surgery range at 9.96. Wonderful, although he'll need to lower his 4.2 BB/9 a little to be consistently successful at the major league level. He looked solid today against the Crew, fanning 4 in 7 IP. He'll roll again Sunday against the Bucs and is certainly worth keeping an eye on. The extra time in Louisville may have really paid off as opposed to rushing him up after injury to see what he could do. Pittsburgh is hitting only .240 against LHP this year, so he wouldn't be a bad pickup for Sunday, should you need someone. Long term? Definite potential.
Red Cross Report
Griffey has been taking BP and is feeling much better, according to the team website. The Reds will wait for an official evaluation from the team doctor later this week to see what the prospects of him returning soon will be. Could be next week, could be next month. Kearns will begin swinging this weekend, but as I said earlier, the slower return curve for him should allow him to return 100% for the first time in over a year. With Dunn and Pena and eventually Griffey and Kearns all healthy, the Reds will once again face the prospects of having 4 guys for 3 spots. Last year, Jose Guillen was traded and netted the Reds Aaron Harang. This time? Maybe the Reds should float Kearns and see what they could get. Pena too. Getting more pitching is never a bad thing.
Complete Bull-oney
At a recent game, the Great American Ball Park scoreboard boasted that Reds' relievers led the NL with 20 victories and 35 saves. Ah, how raw numbers can be totally deceiving. The board failed to mention that the bullpen has blown an NL-leading 23 saves and have a save percentage of only 60, which is worse than everyone except SF and ARI. Paul Wilson would have 14 wins if the bullpen hadn't blown several of his leads. The relievers' ERA is 5.01, with a 1.62 K/BB. Comparatively, the starters aren't much better in ERA with a 4.94 count, but their K/BB is a very pleasing 2.17. The bullpen's HR/9 is 1.35, higher than the starter's 1.26, and that's with homer machine Jose Acevedo counting against the rotation. It's not a starter the Reds need. Shore up the pen, O'Brien.
Odds and Ends
Lidle's in the middle of a hot streak. Good add. I really don't think Wilson is going to fade, despite my continued statements to the contrary. Harang is looking better and better, but still doesn't economize his pitches. . .Two names I suggest the Reds target before the 31st--B.J. Ryan and Mike Gonzalez. They'd be perfect additions. Eddie Guardado, too, while we're at it. . .Reds' ERA is over a run worse on the road, but the Cubs are slumping and the Bucs team OPS is .737. Might turn out to be a good trip. . .Danny Graves got booed after blowing his 8th save against the Cards last week. I say it was a tough situation and Cedeno homered on a good pitch. He's still only walked 5 batters. Not beating himself. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.
The Fastest Mouse in All of O-hi-o
Apologies to Coco Crisp, whose name sounds like a cartoon mouse, but Ryan Freel is still burning up the basepaths, with more SB than RBI and a higher OBP than SLG, and making a name for himself as the speediest guy in Buckeye baseball. He's stolen 18 bases this year as will probably lead off the rest of the season. He's still a cheap guy to get, owned in only 28% of mixed leagues, and he's now 5th in the NL in SB. He's also 4th in NL SB % per time on base at 21%. He's gonna run and he's gonna be on base, with a .408 OBP in June and a .415 clip in July. Although he's only walked once in July, his contact % is 88, so he's putting the ball in play regularly. His plate patience has really grown this year, and Freel would be an excellent pickup in all leagues.
Wily Mo Cerrano
Less than a month ago, I said Wily Mo deserved PT just as much as Austin Kearns did. If you happened to believe that and picked him up on the very day I wrote it, you would've been the beneficiary of 7 HR and 20 RBI. Wily Mo still has major trouble hitting the breaking ball, but he's slightly improving his plate patience in the last week or so and not literally swinging at every pitch thrown in his general direction. I maintain with the proper time to allow his skills to grow, he could be better than Austin Kearns and possibly creep into Adam Dunn territory. Two caveats for short-term performance--much of the league still hasn't faced him enough to begin to really exploit his weaknesses because he's never had regular PT. That leads to caveat #2. His current contact % is 69. Yikes.
Does Claussen Really Have Claws?
How's this for definitive? We'll see. He had a much better year in '02 with the NYY organization than last year with the Yankees/Reds. He's coming off Tommy John surgery, but his K/9 this season at AAA was back up around his pre-surgery range at 9.96. Wonderful, although he'll need to lower his 4.2 BB/9 a little to be consistently successful at the major league level. He looked solid today against the Crew, fanning 4 in 7 IP. He'll roll again Sunday against the Bucs and is certainly worth keeping an eye on. The extra time in Louisville may have really paid off as opposed to rushing him up after injury to see what he could do. Pittsburgh is hitting only .240 against LHP this year, so he wouldn't be a bad pickup for Sunday, should you need someone. Long term? Definite potential.
Red Cross Report
Griffey has been taking BP and is feeling much better, according to the team website. The Reds will wait for an official evaluation from the team doctor later this week to see what the prospects of him returning soon will be. Could be next week, could be next month. Kearns will begin swinging this weekend, but as I said earlier, the slower return curve for him should allow him to return 100% for the first time in over a year. With Dunn and Pena and eventually Griffey and Kearns all healthy, the Reds will once again face the prospects of having 4 guys for 3 spots. Last year, Jose Guillen was traded and netted the Reds Aaron Harang. This time? Maybe the Reds should float Kearns and see what they could get. Pena too. Getting more pitching is never a bad thing.
Complete Bull-oney
At a recent game, the Great American Ball Park scoreboard boasted that Reds' relievers led the NL with 20 victories and 35 saves. Ah, how raw numbers can be totally deceiving. The board failed to mention that the bullpen has blown an NL-leading 23 saves and have a save percentage of only 60, which is worse than everyone except SF and ARI. Paul Wilson would have 14 wins if the bullpen hadn't blown several of his leads. The relievers' ERA is 5.01, with a 1.62 K/BB. Comparatively, the starters aren't much better in ERA with a 4.94 count, but their K/BB is a very pleasing 2.17. The bullpen's HR/9 is 1.35, higher than the starter's 1.26, and that's with homer machine Jose Acevedo counting against the rotation. It's not a starter the Reds need. Shore up the pen, O'Brien.
Odds and Ends
Lidle's in the middle of a hot streak. Good add. I really don't think Wilson is going to fade, despite my continued statements to the contrary. Harang is looking better and better, but still doesn't economize his pitches. . .Two names I suggest the Reds target before the 31st--B.J. Ryan and Mike Gonzalez. They'd be perfect additions. Eddie Guardado, too, while we're at it. . .Reds' ERA is over a run worse on the road, but the Cubs are slumping and the Bucs team OPS is .737. Might turn out to be a good trip. . .Danny Graves got booed after blowing his 8th save against the Cards last week. I say it was a tough situation and Cedeno homered on a good pitch. He's still only walked 5 batters. Not beating himself. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.
