Monday, July 26, 2004
Let's Get Wild
Let's be honest. I love the Reds. Maybe you do too. It's important to be open and honest with out loved ones, right? No one is catching the Cardinals. I don't think that's a news flash, but they're not. Not the Cubs, as much as they want to think otherwise, not the Reds, not Flash Gordon--no one. So looking at the Wild Card, the Reds find themselves in 5th, 4.5 back. Can they do it? Barry Larkin says so. He spearheaded a team meeting over the weekend to help put the Reds house in order. Will it work? Comments from the players range from confident (Larkin, Casey) to cautiously hopeful (Graves). One thing is clear--there isn't much more room for error, because this Reds team is one that needs to stay in the race, because they're not capable of coming from way back.
Help on the Way?
Two pieces of help for the Reds should be back on the field not too far into August. Ken Griffey ran the bases at 50% of Friday and then 70% on Sunday, according to the Dayton Daily News, which didn't reveal their scientific measuring gauge on just how much effort a player is putting into running. What's quantifiable, at least by me, is that he's due back today and won't be. When can we expect him back? I would think that the Reds will push him back very quickly, since he's hitting .343 with runners in scoring position this year and the Reds managed to leave 38 men on base in over this last 5-game road trip. No one is coming through in the clutch for Cincinnati and that stat says more about the Reds right now than anything. Look for Griffey maybe by the weekend or early next week.
What about Kearns? Austin hit off a tee this weekend and took dry swings as well and was scheduled for soft toss yesterday, although no word was given by any media, DDN or otherwise, as to what scientific percentage he was efforting in those swings. Austin had said earlier that he expected to make a minor league rehab stint before returning and considering the play of Wily Mo Pena recently, that's probably a good bet. I'd look for Kearns after Griffey, and he'll probably return no sooner than mid-August. He, unlike Griffey, has managed a trail-blazing .158 with runners in scoring position this season, although basically all his numbers in '04 have been altered due to the fact that he wasn't playing at 100% for nearly all of it. Don't get me started on how the Reds have handled that.
Who Would You Turn To? Jose Rijo?
A report of Jose Acevedo being removed from the rotation led Dave Miley to respond that JA wouldn't be given just one more start to prove his worth, but would continue to develop in the rotation at the major league level. Of course! Who would the Reds call on? There's only really one option at AAA in Seth Etherton, who's had only 18 career starts (11 of those were in '00) while being plagued by injuries in the minors his entire career. His numbers in '04 are very good, but is he a guy you wanna trust your Wild Card run to? I'll allow that JA has been horrible lately, but he did show flashes of success late last year and early this year, while always displaying the potential for success. Removing Acevedo would be ridiculous, not for reasons of performance, but for lack of options.
Wily Mo. . .and Mo. . .and Mo
What in the name of Dave Parker is goin' on? The Reds have had only two right fielders who have slugged .551 or better since Parker did it in 1985--Reggie Sanders in '95 (.579) and Jose Guillen last year (.629). Both of those guys are currently slamming bombs for other teams, while 22-year-old Wily Mo is hitting them over the fence once every 13 ABs. That, with regular play, would average out to 6th in the NL, behind names like Dunn, Beltre, Pujols, Thome, and Bonds. Yes, he has a 69% contact rate, but at 22, he can work on that. At 22, he can work on everything. If the Reds, having seen now what he can potentially do with full-time play, don't let him have the chance, they'll be making a big mistake. If they have to trade someone, I say again--as much as I like him--make it Kearns.
Ready to Overpay Again?
Should the Reds re-sign Paul Wilson? The Dayton Daily News suggested if the Reds don't use the money they have to be receiving due to the highest average attendance they've had in years (only 2000 and 1995 were higher in the last decade and only by a thousand), they should re-sign PW. He's currently payrolled at 3.5 mil and I say if he's signs for exactly that--and not a penny more--then, yeah. The DDN claimed he's earned it, which is wonderful, but his stats aren't as good as his work ethic. His strand rate is over 76%, which says he's had a bit of luck to his 3.71 ERA. His run support has been 6.1, which is well above the NL average of 4.6. Wilson is good, but that's it. He's not a #1, and the Reds have been overpaying players too much (see Griffey, Larkin). Don't add PW to it.
Odds and Ends
So much for a good roadie. The Reds are now 22-31 on the road, dropping 19 of their last 25 away from home. . .Check out my new baseball commentary site, Center Field (cf8.blogspot.com). There are also links to it at Red Letters (theredletters.blogspot.com). Check out the first article and be sure to chime in with your comments. It's geared to be an interactive site to talk baseball and have great discussion. Grab your glove and stop by Center Field. . .17 of the next 20 are against either the Cards or those in the midst of the Wild Card race along with the Reds. No rest for the weary. In one final bleak note, the Reds have given up less than 4 runs just 4 times all of July. They'd better get wild (in a good way) in a hurry. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.
Help on the Way?
Two pieces of help for the Reds should be back on the field not too far into August. Ken Griffey ran the bases at 50% of Friday and then 70% on Sunday, according to the Dayton Daily News, which didn't reveal their scientific measuring gauge on just how much effort a player is putting into running. What's quantifiable, at least by me, is that he's due back today and won't be. When can we expect him back? I would think that the Reds will push him back very quickly, since he's hitting .343 with runners in scoring position this year and the Reds managed to leave 38 men on base in over this last 5-game road trip. No one is coming through in the clutch for Cincinnati and that stat says more about the Reds right now than anything. Look for Griffey maybe by the weekend or early next week.
What about Kearns? Austin hit off a tee this weekend and took dry swings as well and was scheduled for soft toss yesterday, although no word was given by any media, DDN or otherwise, as to what scientific percentage he was efforting in those swings. Austin had said earlier that he expected to make a minor league rehab stint before returning and considering the play of Wily Mo Pena recently, that's probably a good bet. I'd look for Kearns after Griffey, and he'll probably return no sooner than mid-August. He, unlike Griffey, has managed a trail-blazing .158 with runners in scoring position this season, although basically all his numbers in '04 have been altered due to the fact that he wasn't playing at 100% for nearly all of it. Don't get me started on how the Reds have handled that.
Who Would You Turn To? Jose Rijo?
A report of Jose Acevedo being removed from the rotation led Dave Miley to respond that JA wouldn't be given just one more start to prove his worth, but would continue to develop in the rotation at the major league level. Of course! Who would the Reds call on? There's only really one option at AAA in Seth Etherton, who's had only 18 career starts (11 of those were in '00) while being plagued by injuries in the minors his entire career. His numbers in '04 are very good, but is he a guy you wanna trust your Wild Card run to? I'll allow that JA has been horrible lately, but he did show flashes of success late last year and early this year, while always displaying the potential for success. Removing Acevedo would be ridiculous, not for reasons of performance, but for lack of options.
Wily Mo. . .and Mo. . .and Mo
What in the name of Dave Parker is goin' on? The Reds have had only two right fielders who have slugged .551 or better since Parker did it in 1985--Reggie Sanders in '95 (.579) and Jose Guillen last year (.629). Both of those guys are currently slamming bombs for other teams, while 22-year-old Wily Mo is hitting them over the fence once every 13 ABs. That, with regular play, would average out to 6th in the NL, behind names like Dunn, Beltre, Pujols, Thome, and Bonds. Yes, he has a 69% contact rate, but at 22, he can work on that. At 22, he can work on everything. If the Reds, having seen now what he can potentially do with full-time play, don't let him have the chance, they'll be making a big mistake. If they have to trade someone, I say again--as much as I like him--make it Kearns.
Ready to Overpay Again?
Should the Reds re-sign Paul Wilson? The Dayton Daily News suggested if the Reds don't use the money they have to be receiving due to the highest average attendance they've had in years (only 2000 and 1995 were higher in the last decade and only by a thousand), they should re-sign PW. He's currently payrolled at 3.5 mil and I say if he's signs for exactly that--and not a penny more--then, yeah. The DDN claimed he's earned it, which is wonderful, but his stats aren't as good as his work ethic. His strand rate is over 76%, which says he's had a bit of luck to his 3.71 ERA. His run support has been 6.1, which is well above the NL average of 4.6. Wilson is good, but that's it. He's not a #1, and the Reds have been overpaying players too much (see Griffey, Larkin). Don't add PW to it.
Odds and Ends
So much for a good roadie. The Reds are now 22-31 on the road, dropping 19 of their last 25 away from home. . .Check out my new baseball commentary site, Center Field (cf8.blogspot.com). There are also links to it at Red Letters (theredletters.blogspot.com). Check out the first article and be sure to chime in with your comments. It's geared to be an interactive site to talk baseball and have great discussion. Grab your glove and stop by Center Field. . .17 of the next 20 are against either the Cards or those in the midst of the Wild Card race along with the Reds. No rest for the weary. In one final bleak note, the Reds have given up less than 4 runs just 4 times all of July. They'd better get wild (in a good way) in a hurry. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.
