Friday, April 01, 2005
Draft/Season Preview Vol. 4
I want to play a little word association with you today. Angel food cake--good. Yellow snow angels--bad. An Angel getting its wings--good. Not drafting at least one Angel reliever--bad. Sure, saying that is not exactly going out on a limb, but look at these numbers for the 2004 season: 3.47 ERA (2nd), 1.30 WHIP (1st), .671 opponent OPS (1st), 9.07 K/9 (1st), and a 2.66 (!) K/BB ratio (easily 1st). Even better--the best arms from that stellar performance are back. We'll take a look at those that can help your fantasy roster (basically every one in uniform). Troy Percival, Ramon Ortiz, and Ben Weber aren't back this year, but with this group remaining, they definitely won't miss a beat.
K-Rod
Basically whatever good thing you want to say about Francisco Rodriguez won't be an overstatement. He's just 23 this year and already among the elite in baseball when it comes to guys outta the pen. He's the new closer, and if you want a guy who'll absolutely slam the door just about every time out, he's your guy. He sported a filthy 13.2 K/9 last season, posted a 1.82 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and righties only managed an emaciated .127 AVG off of him. His slider is so sick Bengie Molina probably ought to carry a gag bag with him because opposing batters will probably need it. Troy Percival has posted 27 or more saves the last 9 years. 2005 will be year #1 in a long string for Future King K-Rod. BOTTOM LINE: I know Rivera's is the King of Relievers, but K-Rod is his prince and heir.
Brendan Donnelly
Last year was somewhat muted for Donnelly, with him only throwing 42 innings due to a freak batting practice accident that left him out for a good part of the season. This spring, he appears healthy (with a sub 2.00 ERA and 10 K in 10.1 IP) and there are no limits to how low he can go in the ERA and WHIP categories. He'd close on 20 of the 30 teams in baseball, but if your league counts holds (and one of mine does for some reason), Donnelly will make you very happy. His 12.0 K/9 and .223 OBA tell you all you need to know. If you can possibly get BD (and middle relievers usually come pretty cheap), then he's about as good as they get. BOTTOM LINE: I can't think of any reason to not recommend him. He looks that good.
Scot Shields
If Dick Vitale worked MLB, he'd probably say something like, "He's Mr. Versatility, Baby! Shields can do it all! Start! Relieve! Run the scoreboard! He's a Rolls Roycer, Baby!" He's also durable, throwing 100+ the last 2 seasons, with stellar numbers across the board. His K/BB has been at least 2.6 the last 4 seasons and he doesn't give up the long ball. You know something else? He's improving. 2005 could be his best year yet. He recently had a shin splint that was rediagnosed as a stress reaction, which is the only cause for concern for Shields. If he stays healthy, I can totally see another sub 3.00 ERA with plenty of guys heading back to the dugout frustrated (OBA under .250 last 3 seasons). BOTTOM LINE: He's scintillating, sensational, and totally rosterable.
Kevin Gregg
KG is probably the number 4 option in the Halo pen and he's super. He keeps the ball in the park very well (0.6 HR/9) and his K/BB last season was 3.0. He had quite a bit of bad luck and still posted a decent 4.23 ERA. That should very easily be the in the 3's in 2005. Gregg has used his time in the minors wisely, improving and maturing and this year he'll be 26 and looks primed to begin a lengthy career as a solid middle reliever and even has starting potential in a pinch. It's appears from his minor league numbers that he's better suited for relief, and I wouldn't be the least bit shy about drafting him. Scioscia will use him often (89 IP in '04). BOTTOM LINE: I've drafted him twice already, and he's a perfect option for vulture wins and ERA and K success.
Estaban Yan/Matt Hensley
There are so many pens that would want a Yan for a #5. He's got a solid 7.0+ K/9, he keeps the ball on the ground, and while he can walk a few too many from time to time, he finished the year for the first time in the last 5 with a HR/9 under 1.0. You can view that 2 ways--as a fluke or as improvement. With a flyball % that has dropped from 40 to 31 and a groundball % that's gone from 41 to 51 from '02-'04, it certainly looks like improvement is the right assumption. He can help and will be easy to get. Hensley's just the opposite--he can't keep anywhere near this side of the fence. He's got the talent, but he's also got a shoulder problem. If it needs surgery, keep him in mind for later. BOTTOM LINE: It sounds redundant, but a healthy Yan and Hensley can help you.
What's Going On Here?
Reds fans that aren't confused by this point (or completely incensed that a team can possibly have this good of a bullpen), should take heart. APRIL FOOLS. Your final Preview volume is over at Inside the Halo (yeah, a lame gag, but I ran out of stink bombs and silly string). That'll wrap up the 4 volumes of the Preview, which can be viewed (IF, OF, rotation, and bullpen) at theredletters.blogspot.com. I'm excited to be with you for a 2nd season of Reds baseball. The next column will be the first of the regular season, and the on-field action and your inquiries to theredletters@insightbb.com will determine its content (although I'll have the obligatory postseason picks next time as well). For now, let's play ball! I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters (well, kinda).
K-Rod
Basically whatever good thing you want to say about Francisco Rodriguez won't be an overstatement. He's just 23 this year and already among the elite in baseball when it comes to guys outta the pen. He's the new closer, and if you want a guy who'll absolutely slam the door just about every time out, he's your guy. He sported a filthy 13.2 K/9 last season, posted a 1.82 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and righties only managed an emaciated .127 AVG off of him. His slider is so sick Bengie Molina probably ought to carry a gag bag with him because opposing batters will probably need it. Troy Percival has posted 27 or more saves the last 9 years. 2005 will be year #1 in a long string for Future King K-Rod. BOTTOM LINE: I know Rivera's is the King of Relievers, but K-Rod is his prince and heir.
Brendan Donnelly
Last year was somewhat muted for Donnelly, with him only throwing 42 innings due to a freak batting practice accident that left him out for a good part of the season. This spring, he appears healthy (with a sub 2.00 ERA and 10 K in 10.1 IP) and there are no limits to how low he can go in the ERA and WHIP categories. He'd close on 20 of the 30 teams in baseball, but if your league counts holds (and one of mine does for some reason), Donnelly will make you very happy. His 12.0 K/9 and .223 OBA tell you all you need to know. If you can possibly get BD (and middle relievers usually come pretty cheap), then he's about as good as they get. BOTTOM LINE: I can't think of any reason to not recommend him. He looks that good.
Scot Shields
If Dick Vitale worked MLB, he'd probably say something like, "He's Mr. Versatility, Baby! Shields can do it all! Start! Relieve! Run the scoreboard! He's a Rolls Roycer, Baby!" He's also durable, throwing 100+ the last 2 seasons, with stellar numbers across the board. His K/BB has been at least 2.6 the last 4 seasons and he doesn't give up the long ball. You know something else? He's improving. 2005 could be his best year yet. He recently had a shin splint that was rediagnosed as a stress reaction, which is the only cause for concern for Shields. If he stays healthy, I can totally see another sub 3.00 ERA with plenty of guys heading back to the dugout frustrated (OBA under .250 last 3 seasons). BOTTOM LINE: He's scintillating, sensational, and totally rosterable.
Kevin Gregg
KG is probably the number 4 option in the Halo pen and he's super. He keeps the ball in the park very well (0.6 HR/9) and his K/BB last season was 3.0. He had quite a bit of bad luck and still posted a decent 4.23 ERA. That should very easily be the in the 3's in 2005. Gregg has used his time in the minors wisely, improving and maturing and this year he'll be 26 and looks primed to begin a lengthy career as a solid middle reliever and even has starting potential in a pinch. It's appears from his minor league numbers that he's better suited for relief, and I wouldn't be the least bit shy about drafting him. Scioscia will use him often (89 IP in '04). BOTTOM LINE: I've drafted him twice already, and he's a perfect option for vulture wins and ERA and K success.
Estaban Yan/Matt Hensley
There are so many pens that would want a Yan for a #5. He's got a solid 7.0+ K/9, he keeps the ball on the ground, and while he can walk a few too many from time to time, he finished the year for the first time in the last 5 with a HR/9 under 1.0. You can view that 2 ways--as a fluke or as improvement. With a flyball % that has dropped from 40 to 31 and a groundball % that's gone from 41 to 51 from '02-'04, it certainly looks like improvement is the right assumption. He can help and will be easy to get. Hensley's just the opposite--he can't keep anywhere near this side of the fence. He's got the talent, but he's also got a shoulder problem. If it needs surgery, keep him in mind for later. BOTTOM LINE: It sounds redundant, but a healthy Yan and Hensley can help you.
What's Going On Here?
Reds fans that aren't confused by this point (or completely incensed that a team can possibly have this good of a bullpen), should take heart. APRIL FOOLS. Your final Preview volume is over at Inside the Halo (yeah, a lame gag, but I ran out of stink bombs and silly string). That'll wrap up the 4 volumes of the Preview, which can be viewed (IF, OF, rotation, and bullpen) at theredletters.blogspot.com. I'm excited to be with you for a 2nd season of Reds baseball. The next column will be the first of the regular season, and the on-field action and your inquiries to theredletters@insightbb.com will determine its content (although I'll have the obligatory postseason picks next time as well). For now, let's play ball! I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters (well, kinda).
