Tuesday, March 15, 2005
2005 Draft/Season Preview
The Ides of March means spring training is in full swing. Some players have already received their minor league assignments as the seasons draws near, and some fantasy players have already participated in their first draft. I had my first one this past Saturday, picking up Sean Casey in the late single digit rounds as my back up to Albert Pujols, whom I kept from last year. This could turn out to be the best 1B tandem I've ever had. So--the question you're here to answer is which Reds should you add to your roster this season and when? This year's draft preview will start in the infield and we'll stick to the basics--what to expect, where they would rank by their position, but not where to draft them. That, my friends, is simply up to you. (NOTE: All analysis assumes good health.)
1B: Sean Casey, The Mayor
Far and away the best draft target in the IF. Casey finished '04 with a bunch of 2's--his 2nd highest marks in AVG, HR, R, and hits. All previous career highs came in '99. So, since it's been a while, can we expect the same kind of production again? Yes. He could have all new career highs this fall. Ks were at a career low last year (94% contact--that's amazing), his G/F ratio was at a career low as well (flyballs at GABP turn into HRs), and 15 of his 24 bombs came on the road. Almost 1 in 4 balls off his bat were line drives (compared to the MLB avg. of about 1 in 6). He hit over .300 against LHP and RHP for the first time in the last 5 years as well. BOTTOM LINE: NL, I'd pick only Pujols and Helton higher. MLB: Only add Ortiz and Teixiera to that. Top 5 1B overall.
2B: D'Angelo Jimenez
Jimenez, whom I heard one fan address him last year as DANG-uh-low, JIMMY-nez (a pronunciation which all her companions agreed with), isn't quite as elite at 2B. However, DJ isn't a guy that's going to hurt your squad either. His patience (13 bb%) has increased consistently, and he's having more success now from the left side (.281 in '04 against RHP). 13 was also a career high in SB last year and at age 27, he's got plenty of speed left on a team that needs it. If you don't expect a uptick in AVG (.270), this is a guy whose OBP will be around .350 so he’ll have an opportunity to swipe some bags. BOTTOM LINE: Barely ML top 15, but the difference between him and a name like Todd Walker (who'll go much earlier) is very marginal. He could hit double-digit HR and will be available late.
SS: Rich Aurilia/Felipe Lopez
It's easy to cover the SS position (even with 2 names) in a succinct manner because to put it just that way, you don't want anything the Reds have to offer. Period. If you've rostered one of these two, something obviously went wrong on draft day (or any day, for that matter). For the sake of being thorough, however, I will say that if there's any potential at all at this position, it's from Lopez, who is 25 this season, who actually has a little pop in that bat, but it's just a little and he's never hit over .226 against RHP, which may say even more. Barry Larkin, who made the All-Star team (and only $700K) in his final season with the Reds, would've probably come back about as cheap but was pushed out the door. Nice move. BOTTOM LINE: Avoid at all costs.
3B: Joe Randa
Speaking of Barry Larkin--why the Reds would decline to bring him back yet spend over 2 mil on a guy who isn't much younger is beyond me. Yes, Larkin doesn't play 3B, but Ryan Freel can. No, Freel's D wasn't great at the spot, but he did show significant range there (3.42 Rng). Lopez had over 200 innings there as well. Not sure why the Reds spent this money on Randa, and you shouldn't spend a pick on him either. Previously a line drive machine, his LD% dropped from 25 to 19 last year. He does get the ball into the air (1.01 G/F), but everything else is average. Really, really average. BOTTOM LINE: Worst Opening Day 3B option in NL. He may hit double digit HRs, but you can find that in plenty of other places.
C: Jason LaRue
Catcher is usually a weak position in fantasy baseball and 2005 really isn't that different. Thus, it's easier, once out of the top 5 or so, to just pick whoever and get varying degrees of minor production overall as long as that player is getting regular PT. Of the backstops who'll get that regular PT in ‘05, other than Javy Lopez, Jason Varitek, and Jorge Posada, I would put Jason LaRue in the next small group of catchers--if you're just judging power. Overall, he's probably a top 15 C, but power-wise he can help you. AVG? .250--and that's hopeful. No speed. Only NL catcher to whiff 100+ times in '04. OBP could very easily be below .300. BOTTOM LINE: If you need a smidge of extra power, LaRue can give it to you. The only concern is his G/F ratio (1.22), which was up from '03.
Spring Notes and Vol. 2
The next edition will cover the Reds biggest strength--the OF, which could rank as the NL's best in '05. Or be just average. It all depends on health (and how much risk you'll allow on your roster). Spring stats mean very little, but Wily Mo Pena is 5-32 with only 1 XBH so far. Kearn's .429 mark means he'll be firmly in command of RF unless Wily Mo catches fire. Rob Stratton is hitting .320 with 4 HR and 8 RBI in 25 AB, but don’t do anything crazy like draft him late, because while he may crush the ball, he may not even make the team and nothing in his past performances hints he could even hit .200 in the majors. Put it this way--he makes Adam Dunn look like a contact hitter. Don't mention that to your opponents though. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.
1B: Sean Casey, The Mayor
Far and away the best draft target in the IF. Casey finished '04 with a bunch of 2's--his 2nd highest marks in AVG, HR, R, and hits. All previous career highs came in '99. So, since it's been a while, can we expect the same kind of production again? Yes. He could have all new career highs this fall. Ks were at a career low last year (94% contact--that's amazing), his G/F ratio was at a career low as well (flyballs at GABP turn into HRs), and 15 of his 24 bombs came on the road. Almost 1 in 4 balls off his bat were line drives (compared to the MLB avg. of about 1 in 6). He hit over .300 against LHP and RHP for the first time in the last 5 years as well. BOTTOM LINE: NL, I'd pick only Pujols and Helton higher. MLB: Only add Ortiz and Teixiera to that. Top 5 1B overall.
2B: D'Angelo Jimenez
Jimenez, whom I heard one fan address him last year as DANG-uh-low, JIMMY-nez (a pronunciation which all her companions agreed with), isn't quite as elite at 2B. However, DJ isn't a guy that's going to hurt your squad either. His patience (13 bb%) has increased consistently, and he's having more success now from the left side (.281 in '04 against RHP). 13 was also a career high in SB last year and at age 27, he's got plenty of speed left on a team that needs it. If you don't expect a uptick in AVG (.270), this is a guy whose OBP will be around .350 so he’ll have an opportunity to swipe some bags. BOTTOM LINE: Barely ML top 15, but the difference between him and a name like Todd Walker (who'll go much earlier) is very marginal. He could hit double-digit HR and will be available late.
SS: Rich Aurilia/Felipe Lopez
It's easy to cover the SS position (even with 2 names) in a succinct manner because to put it just that way, you don't want anything the Reds have to offer. Period. If you've rostered one of these two, something obviously went wrong on draft day (or any day, for that matter). For the sake of being thorough, however, I will say that if there's any potential at all at this position, it's from Lopez, who is 25 this season, who actually has a little pop in that bat, but it's just a little and he's never hit over .226 against RHP, which may say even more. Barry Larkin, who made the All-Star team (and only $700K) in his final season with the Reds, would've probably come back about as cheap but was pushed out the door. Nice move. BOTTOM LINE: Avoid at all costs.
3B: Joe Randa
Speaking of Barry Larkin--why the Reds would decline to bring him back yet spend over 2 mil on a guy who isn't much younger is beyond me. Yes, Larkin doesn't play 3B, but Ryan Freel can. No, Freel's D wasn't great at the spot, but he did show significant range there (3.42 Rng). Lopez had over 200 innings there as well. Not sure why the Reds spent this money on Randa, and you shouldn't spend a pick on him either. Previously a line drive machine, his LD% dropped from 25 to 19 last year. He does get the ball into the air (1.01 G/F), but everything else is average. Really, really average. BOTTOM LINE: Worst Opening Day 3B option in NL. He may hit double digit HRs, but you can find that in plenty of other places.
C: Jason LaRue
Catcher is usually a weak position in fantasy baseball and 2005 really isn't that different. Thus, it's easier, once out of the top 5 or so, to just pick whoever and get varying degrees of minor production overall as long as that player is getting regular PT. Of the backstops who'll get that regular PT in ‘05, other than Javy Lopez, Jason Varitek, and Jorge Posada, I would put Jason LaRue in the next small group of catchers--if you're just judging power. Overall, he's probably a top 15 C, but power-wise he can help you. AVG? .250--and that's hopeful. No speed. Only NL catcher to whiff 100+ times in '04. OBP could very easily be below .300. BOTTOM LINE: If you need a smidge of extra power, LaRue can give it to you. The only concern is his G/F ratio (1.22), which was up from '03.
Spring Notes and Vol. 2
The next edition will cover the Reds biggest strength--the OF, which could rank as the NL's best in '05. Or be just average. It all depends on health (and how much risk you'll allow on your roster). Spring stats mean very little, but Wily Mo Pena is 5-32 with only 1 XBH so far. Kearn's .429 mark means he'll be firmly in command of RF unless Wily Mo catches fire. Rob Stratton is hitting .320 with 4 HR and 8 RBI in 25 AB, but don’t do anything crazy like draft him late, because while he may crush the ball, he may not even make the team and nothing in his past performances hints he could even hit .200 in the majors. Put it this way--he makes Adam Dunn look like a contact hitter. Don't mention that to your opponents though. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.
