Saturday, March 26, 2005
Draft/Season Preview Vol. 3
Let's look at some numbers. We don't have Sesame Street's Count or any fancy jingles, but let's look anyway. How about these three? 5.23. Uh, what was the 2004 Reds starting pitching ERA? Yes! Okay, I'll take "Rotations Only Marginally Better Than the Colorado Rockies" for $400, please. The answer: 1.49. I know! What was ’04 Reds rotation WHIP? Yes. Uh…$600. The answer: .832. Matt again. What was ’04 Reds rotation opponent OPS? Exactly! The board is yours!…Okay, I'm no Ken Jennings, but those questions were easy--and sad. Is there anyone who can put a stop to opponents bombing out the Ohio River marine life? There are old & new names in the rotation. Can the results be any different or are the Reds in Jeopardy (yeah, yeah)? Let's take a look at the category:
$200: Paul Wilson
Who is the Reds Opening Day starter? Wilson is indeed facing off against Pedro and the Mets on 4/4, coming off a career high in wins (11) and a career low in ERA in years with 100+ IP (4.36). Will he improve again? Can he help anchor this shaky rotation? The good news is his work ethic is unquestionable. He works meat off the bone preparing for the mound. His K/9 did rise in '04 (5.7) and he's always had slightly better than average control. The bad news is this--he's had real trouble the last 4 seasons keeping the ball in the yard (1.3 HR/9 '01-'04). Also, even with improvement, his skills are just enough to get the job done but not enough to be a #1, #2, or maybe even a #3. BOTTOM LINE: A definite gamer, but for a guy who's probably at his peak, he's remarkably bland. I'd pass.
$400: Eric Milton
Who is the Reds “big-name” $$$ free agent who could do very well but will do very little to save those fishies in the Ohio (In reality, it would take a prodigious 550+ blast to even ruffle any gills, but Adam Dunn has bounced one in). I opposed this signing earlier and while I won't really change my tune, Milton does have the potential to have a pretty good year. He's gonna give up at least 30 HRs doing it, but if they're mostly solo, who knows? His K/9 is solid (7.2), but his control was the worst it's been since his rookie season. Granted, it was better in the 2nd half (4.1 vs. 2.8 BB/9). BOTTOM LINE: He just throws too many flyballs. That's won't work at GABP, just as it didn't in Philly. He's worthy of filling the back end of you rotation--but be ready for the moon shots.
$600: Ramon Ortiz
Who is the overpaid starter most likely to end up pitching out of the bullpen? Honestly, I can see the Milton signing. He's got game, he just can't keep the ball in the yard. But to just give Ortiz a free pass into the rotation (and pay him 3.55 mil) is not, uh, fiscally responsible. I would get laughed at if I bought a $200 ham sandwich, but Reds fans won't be laughing if pricey Ortiz posts another 5.47 ERA as a starter as he did in for the Angels in '04. Reliever ERA? 2.76. More K/9 out of the pen, less HR/9. Another fly ball pitcher who's had 5 straight years of 1.1-1.7 HR/9 (for reference, 1.1 is average and under 1.0 is what gets it done). BOTTOM LINE: He's a good reliever or a spot starter--NOT a #3. Plus, lefties absolutely mash him (.305 OBA in '04). Stay away.
$800: Aaron Harang
Who is the under-the-radar starter that could end up having the best season of anyone on staff? I like Aaron Harang. He's a horse. He's 27. He's growing into his talents. He only had 4 bad starts all of last year. His flyball % has come down two years in a row. Having to compete for a spot this year, he's got something to prove. He's got 3 years and 58 starts under his belt now. Sure, it's a small sample, but he's got a 3.18 ERA with 16 K/2 BB this spring in 22.2 IP. There's a lot to like. The caveat? 1.5 HR/9 in '04. 4 HR given up this spring. He (like the others) has got to keep the ball in the park. BOTTOM LINE: Harang has the skills. Period. If he can continue to lower his flyball %, HRs should drop and watch out. He'll be there late and could reap rewards.
$1000: DAILY DOUBLE! Josh Hancock and Brandon Claussen
Luke Hudson will start on the DL, so I'm skipping him for now. Hancock is 27 like Harang, and I know he went 5-1 down the stretch last year, but drafting this H might cause fantasy roster irritation that would leave you in need of Preparation H. During that '04 stint, his K was 5.0 and it has dropped at every new level to which Hancock has been promoted. Claussen, like Hancock, has seen his K/9 drop every year until last when he was coming off arm surgery, but that time out put him behind in development and he needs more time to mature. Right now he walks way too many and has an unseemly tendency to get rocked. BOTTOM LINE: Leave these guys alone for now, but know that Claussen could be a certifiable target within 2 years. Right now, he's got some work to do.
Spring Notes and Vol. 4
Wily Mo Pena has forgotten to bring his jersey to the last 2 road games, but he's recalling how to rake, going 8 for his last 14. Dunn has only whiffed 9 of 49 ABs this spring (78 ct%), and while that's marked improvement, wait to see it in the season to give it any legitimacy. Joe Randa has 3 bombs and 3 doubles, slugging .548. That's good to hear, but remember that he hasn't slugged higher than .452 since ‘99. Don't expect it to last, though his flyball % was the highest it's been since ‘99 also. The last volume of your Preview will take a look at the bullpen, which has the potential to be the Cincy's worst in years, but even so there still a couple of high risk/decent rewards hurlers available. And don't forget vulture wins! I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.
$200: Paul Wilson
Who is the Reds Opening Day starter? Wilson is indeed facing off against Pedro and the Mets on 4/4, coming off a career high in wins (11) and a career low in ERA in years with 100+ IP (4.36). Will he improve again? Can he help anchor this shaky rotation? The good news is his work ethic is unquestionable. He works meat off the bone preparing for the mound. His K/9 did rise in '04 (5.7) and he's always had slightly better than average control. The bad news is this--he's had real trouble the last 4 seasons keeping the ball in the yard (1.3 HR/9 '01-'04). Also, even with improvement, his skills are just enough to get the job done but not enough to be a #1, #2, or maybe even a #3. BOTTOM LINE: A definite gamer, but for a guy who's probably at his peak, he's remarkably bland. I'd pass.
$400: Eric Milton
Who is the Reds “big-name” $$$ free agent who could do very well but will do very little to save those fishies in the Ohio (In reality, it would take a prodigious 550+ blast to even ruffle any gills, but Adam Dunn has bounced one in). I opposed this signing earlier and while I won't really change my tune, Milton does have the potential to have a pretty good year. He's gonna give up at least 30 HRs doing it, but if they're mostly solo, who knows? His K/9 is solid (7.2), but his control was the worst it's been since his rookie season. Granted, it was better in the 2nd half (4.1 vs. 2.8 BB/9). BOTTOM LINE: He just throws too many flyballs. That's won't work at GABP, just as it didn't in Philly. He's worthy of filling the back end of you rotation--but be ready for the moon shots.
$600: Ramon Ortiz
Who is the overpaid starter most likely to end up pitching out of the bullpen? Honestly, I can see the Milton signing. He's got game, he just can't keep the ball in the yard. But to just give Ortiz a free pass into the rotation (and pay him 3.55 mil) is not, uh, fiscally responsible. I would get laughed at if I bought a $200 ham sandwich, but Reds fans won't be laughing if pricey Ortiz posts another 5.47 ERA as a starter as he did in for the Angels in '04. Reliever ERA? 2.76. More K/9 out of the pen, less HR/9. Another fly ball pitcher who's had 5 straight years of 1.1-1.7 HR/9 (for reference, 1.1 is average and under 1.0 is what gets it done). BOTTOM LINE: He's a good reliever or a spot starter--NOT a #3. Plus, lefties absolutely mash him (.305 OBA in '04). Stay away.
$800: Aaron Harang
Who is the under-the-radar starter that could end up having the best season of anyone on staff? I like Aaron Harang. He's a horse. He's 27. He's growing into his talents. He only had 4 bad starts all of last year. His flyball % has come down two years in a row. Having to compete for a spot this year, he's got something to prove. He's got 3 years and 58 starts under his belt now. Sure, it's a small sample, but he's got a 3.18 ERA with 16 K/2 BB this spring in 22.2 IP. There's a lot to like. The caveat? 1.5 HR/9 in '04. 4 HR given up this spring. He (like the others) has got to keep the ball in the park. BOTTOM LINE: Harang has the skills. Period. If he can continue to lower his flyball %, HRs should drop and watch out. He'll be there late and could reap rewards.
$1000: DAILY DOUBLE! Josh Hancock and Brandon Claussen
Luke Hudson will start on the DL, so I'm skipping him for now. Hancock is 27 like Harang, and I know he went 5-1 down the stretch last year, but drafting this H might cause fantasy roster irritation that would leave you in need of Preparation H. During that '04 stint, his K was 5.0 and it has dropped at every new level to which Hancock has been promoted. Claussen, like Hancock, has seen his K/9 drop every year until last when he was coming off arm surgery, but that time out put him behind in development and he needs more time to mature. Right now he walks way too many and has an unseemly tendency to get rocked. BOTTOM LINE: Leave these guys alone for now, but know that Claussen could be a certifiable target within 2 years. Right now, he's got some work to do.
Spring Notes and Vol. 4
Wily Mo Pena has forgotten to bring his jersey to the last 2 road games, but he's recalling how to rake, going 8 for his last 14. Dunn has only whiffed 9 of 49 ABs this spring (78 ct%), and while that's marked improvement, wait to see it in the season to give it any legitimacy. Joe Randa has 3 bombs and 3 doubles, slugging .548. That's good to hear, but remember that he hasn't slugged higher than .452 since ‘99. Don't expect it to last, though his flyball % was the highest it's been since ‘99 also. The last volume of your Preview will take a look at the bullpen, which has the potential to be the Cincy's worst in years, but even so there still a couple of high risk/decent rewards hurlers available. And don't forget vulture wins! I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.
