Tuesday, March 22, 2005
Draft/Season Preview Vol. 2
As the season draws near, the Reds will make more cuts from their roster number of 41 on Tuesday, according to the team's official website, leaving them another round of cuts on March 30, with the final 25-man roster set by April 2. For now, though, they spend this week playing all AL East opponents except one (FRI @ Cleveland in Winter Haven). That includes World Champ Boston on Tuesday and the Yanks on Wednesday. We'll get to spring performance a little later, but let's break down the outfield and see what to look for and who can help you this year on your fantasy roster. For any latecomers to the infield preview, it's located at The Red Letters (theredletters.blogspot.com). You can reach me at theredletters@insightbb.com for any Reds-related inquiries.
LF: Adam Dunn
Dunn is easily the most bankable choice here and it's a good bank to do business with. Here's a flyball guy (with patience) in a flyball park who, over his 4-year career, has homered, walked, or whiffed in 49% of his total ABs. If you're looking for power, he's your guy. For obvious reasons (as in breaking the single-season K record last season with 195), he isn't going to provide an AVG boost for your team though. He and batting coach Chris Chambliss have been working on contact and so far this spring the results have been encouraging. But 40 ABs is also a small sample size, so wait until we see some more consistentcy at the plate. BOTTOM LINE: The power is for real (and he's only 25), so HR ceiling is way up there. All those whiffs again could make repeat 100 RBI difficult though.
CF: Ken Griffey
I really wish I could type Junior into another position (one that would make another injury less probable), but the Reds--or Griffey--won't have it otherwise. So, hold one moment while I get out the broken record: "Griffey's value is directly tied into his health. However, Griffey says he feels great and is 100% healthy heading into the season." The last, of course, is probably true, but the chances of him getting hurt at some point? I would say greater than most. If healthy, he still can produce quality numbers (30+ HR, 90+ RBI, but the average probably wouldn't top .265), but it's up to you whether or not you bet on good health. BOTTOM LINE: If you don't mind big risk, get him late--he'll play when healthy. But--how much will that be?
RF: Austin Kearns
Kearns, like Griffey and Dunn, has plenty of power to throw around. But again, there's the health issue. He appears more healed than Griffey this spring and it's a good gamble to say he's pretty much 100%. What does that mean with his history? He's got the ability to nail 30, but hitting over .270? Probably not. His contact % has dropped every year so far, down to 70% (yeesh) in ‘04 in limited duty. I can see the Reds whiffing away a lot of rallies this season unless these 3 start getting the bat on the ball more. Also, AK's career G/F ratio is 1.46--a little high for a 30+ bomber. BOTTOM LINE: At 24, there is plenty of time for him to be molded into a hitter that fits his abilities. But the risk is all yours if you're hoping that happens in '05. Know this though--he CAN hit.
OF 3A: Wily Mo Pena
With Kearns's hot spring and Wily Mo's StruggleFest, trade rumors have begun to surface again. GM Danny Boy said exactly what everyone was thinking though when asked about it. "[You know we have Kearns and Griffey, right? You know that they've spent 476 days on the DL the last 3 years, right?]" (paraphrased loosely by author). Wily Mo will stay and play fairly regularly early on, of that you can be sure. But like the rest, he's got a serious case of the whiffs (0.20 BB/K ratio). The Reds OF is All-World potential, but little on results (outside of King Kong Dunn) and Pena is no different. BOTTOM LINE: His patience is at a career low, he won't hit for AVG, but when he makes contact, flames trail the ball. He, too, though, hits a lot of grounders for a power guy.
OF: Jose Oquendo, er, Ryan Freel
Freel is "technically" an outfielder, but like '04, will probably see much of his time on the dirt. He's a speed demon and a popular draft pick with his 37 swipes (think NL and Chone Figgins). He's a man-with-no-spot-horse-with-no-name kinda guy. He still managed to net 143 games last season, so taking him for a speed jolt is not silly despite his lack of a position. That also makes him attractive for the ability to plug him in anywhere. Here's an interesting note--.369 OBP in the 2nd half last year, tops on the team and 6th in NL Central. Griffey, Dunn, Kearns, Casey need people to drive in and Freel will fit the bill. BOTTOM LINE: Slight knock for PT issues, but he'll get his swings, and most importantly his swipes, as long as that OBP was growth and not a fluke.
Spring Notes and Vol. 3
Felipe Lopez has stolen 3 bags in spring, trying to make himself remotely valuable, but 12 games and 35 ABs do not a turnaround make. Aaron Harang, competing for the 4 or 5 rotation hole, has posted 13 K and only 2 BB in 17.2 IP thus far. He's been taken yard 4 times, but the WHIP is 1.12. Have him and your radar (especially if he starts keeping it in the yard). Look for Brandon Claussen to get the 5 spot. BC is out of options and with Luke Hudson down combined with a solid spring, he'll probably get the nod. Next, we'll profile the rotation. I've gotten some mail on my lack of enthusiasm for the starters. If you're one who doesn't like bad news, wear a helmet because there really is some good news among the hailstorm. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.
LF: Adam Dunn
Dunn is easily the most bankable choice here and it's a good bank to do business with. Here's a flyball guy (with patience) in a flyball park who, over his 4-year career, has homered, walked, or whiffed in 49% of his total ABs. If you're looking for power, he's your guy. For obvious reasons (as in breaking the single-season K record last season with 195), he isn't going to provide an AVG boost for your team though. He and batting coach Chris Chambliss have been working on contact and so far this spring the results have been encouraging. But 40 ABs is also a small sample size, so wait until we see some more consistentcy at the plate. BOTTOM LINE: The power is for real (and he's only 25), so HR ceiling is way up there. All those whiffs again could make repeat 100 RBI difficult though.
CF: Ken Griffey
I really wish I could type Junior into another position (one that would make another injury less probable), but the Reds--or Griffey--won't have it otherwise. So, hold one moment while I get out the broken record: "Griffey's value is directly tied into his health. However, Griffey says he feels great and is 100% healthy heading into the season." The last, of course, is probably true, but the chances of him getting hurt at some point? I would say greater than most. If healthy, he still can produce quality numbers (30+ HR, 90+ RBI, but the average probably wouldn't top .265), but it's up to you whether or not you bet on good health. BOTTOM LINE: If you don't mind big risk, get him late--he'll play when healthy. But--how much will that be?
RF: Austin Kearns
Kearns, like Griffey and Dunn, has plenty of power to throw around. But again, there's the health issue. He appears more healed than Griffey this spring and it's a good gamble to say he's pretty much 100%. What does that mean with his history? He's got the ability to nail 30, but hitting over .270? Probably not. His contact % has dropped every year so far, down to 70% (yeesh) in ‘04 in limited duty. I can see the Reds whiffing away a lot of rallies this season unless these 3 start getting the bat on the ball more. Also, AK's career G/F ratio is 1.46--a little high for a 30+ bomber. BOTTOM LINE: At 24, there is plenty of time for him to be molded into a hitter that fits his abilities. But the risk is all yours if you're hoping that happens in '05. Know this though--he CAN hit.
OF 3A: Wily Mo Pena
With Kearns's hot spring and Wily Mo's StruggleFest, trade rumors have begun to surface again. GM Danny Boy said exactly what everyone was thinking though when asked about it. "[You know we have Kearns and Griffey, right? You know that they've spent 476 days on the DL the last 3 years, right?]" (paraphrased loosely by author). Wily Mo will stay and play fairly regularly early on, of that you can be sure. But like the rest, he's got a serious case of the whiffs (0.20 BB/K ratio). The Reds OF is All-World potential, but little on results (outside of King Kong Dunn) and Pena is no different. BOTTOM LINE: His patience is at a career low, he won't hit for AVG, but when he makes contact, flames trail the ball. He, too, though, hits a lot of grounders for a power guy.
OF: Jose Oquendo, er, Ryan Freel
Freel is "technically" an outfielder, but like '04, will probably see much of his time on the dirt. He's a speed demon and a popular draft pick with his 37 swipes (think NL and Chone Figgins). He's a man-with-no-spot-horse-with-no-name kinda guy. He still managed to net 143 games last season, so taking him for a speed jolt is not silly despite his lack of a position. That also makes him attractive for the ability to plug him in anywhere. Here's an interesting note--.369 OBP in the 2nd half last year, tops on the team and 6th in NL Central. Griffey, Dunn, Kearns, Casey need people to drive in and Freel will fit the bill. BOTTOM LINE: Slight knock for PT issues, but he'll get his swings, and most importantly his swipes, as long as that OBP was growth and not a fluke.
Spring Notes and Vol. 3
Felipe Lopez has stolen 3 bags in spring, trying to make himself remotely valuable, but 12 games and 35 ABs do not a turnaround make. Aaron Harang, competing for the 4 or 5 rotation hole, has posted 13 K and only 2 BB in 17.2 IP thus far. He's been taken yard 4 times, but the WHIP is 1.12. Have him and your radar (especially if he starts keeping it in the yard). Look for Brandon Claussen to get the 5 spot. BC is out of options and with Luke Hudson down combined with a solid spring, he'll probably get the nod. Next, we'll profile the rotation. I've gotten some mail on my lack of enthusiasm for the starters. If you're one who doesn't like bad news, wear a helmet because there really is some good news among the hailstorm. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.
