Wednesday, April 13, 2005
What's in a Letter?
There's one particular letter that keeps popping up in Reds box scores and also their philosophies. It's a letter that has come to take on a very negative connotation, at least from where I'm sitting. That letter--the one that has spelled much of the Reds' doom over the last few years and will most likely continue to give them fits--is the letter K. K as in 3849 Reds batters fanning over the last 3 years (MLB's most in '03 & '04). K as in 63 already in '05 in just 9 games. K as in only 1 lineup regular who has exceptional contact % (Casey at 94). There are 5 regulars who whiffed at least once every 4 ABs in '04. That's awful. Not that this is an official stat, but the Reds had the lowest K Diff (pitcher Ks-hitter Ks=K Diff) in the majors in '04 by over 100 with a negative (-343).
Does that mean anything? Well, 3 of the top 7 in that category made the playoffs. It does mean that it's very hard for them to score a lot of runs because their AVG will be so low (12th, 15th, and 13th 2002-04). This offense, which is supposed to be so good, hasn't finished above 10th in runs scored in the NL in that same span. Everyone knows about Adam Dunn's new K record, but the Reds had 4 players in the top 40 in strikeouts last year--more than any team in the NL. This is a serious problem and until we see a downward trend in the whiffs, the offensive woes should continue. That means that most players in the lineup will be an AVG drag for you. It wouldn't surprise me if the only Reds who end up with an AVG above league average (.270) are Casey, Randa, and maybe Jimenez.
So that's bad. It doesn’t end there. Another reason Reds fans (and fantasy owners) should hate the letter K is because of the pitching philosophy they herald. Pitching coach Don Gullett and manager Dave Miley would have us believe that mowing the opposing lineup down really isn't that big a deal. Any casual Reds fan has heard by now of the "pitch to contact" philosophy. The Reds have finished no higher than 12th in the NL in both K/BB and BBs the last 3 seasons, and Gullett (while one of the best pitching coaches there is) decided it would be a good idea to just throw to the hitters, let them put it in play, and get them out instead of walking everyone who showed up at the plate with a stick. This, in principle, is not all bad. In practice, it won't work. Here's why.
MLB K/9 rates and the corresponding average ERA (courtesy of Baseball HQ): 0.0-3.9 (4.97), 4.0-4.9 (4.75), 5.0-5.9 (4.47), 6.0-6.9 (4.32), 7.0-7.9 (4.16), 8.0-8.9 (3.87), 9.0+ (3.22). This makes the obvious statement that the more batters you keep from hitting the ball, the better your ERA will be. The Reds shouldn't be pitching to contact. Batters who never strike out would hit around .300 consistently. Voros McCracken has done research on that in the past with hit rate. The good news of all this is that the Reds have several starters who can sit hitters down at a good rate (Milton, Harang, Claussen, and Hudson). The bad news is that 3 of those 4 have other issues. Bottom line--next time you hear someone talking about "pitching to contact", politely tell them to shut up.
Pitching Woes
The rotation is having both physical and statistical woes. First, Ramon Ortiz was scratched from his start on Wednesday because his stiffness in this groin and thigh. The Reds will give him a little time off to make sure it doesn't get worse. For the 0.3 percent of you who own him, this is another reminder the waive button is usually at the bottom of the page. The statistical woes (although not at all unexpected) belong to Eric Milton. That's 2 starts, 9.2 IP, 5 HR. That outlandish rate won't continue--but it will serve as an early warning that this will be a problem all year. If you don't mind the ERA spike, he'll give you the Ks and 10-12 wins. And if you'd like to dispute my prediction of 35 HRs, you can find me behind the fence during Milton's starts shagging flies.
Outlandish Outfield?
Sports Illustrated recently ranked the Cincinnati Reds trio of Dunn, Griffey, and Kearns as the 2nd best OF in the majors behind the Los Angeles Angels (Anderson, Finley, and Guerrero). Does that hold water? As long as you don't count AVG. Griffey's off to a good start, showing what he can do when he's healthy--although 0 HR and 2 BB vs. 8 K show that the .292 AVG isn't a good as it looks. Adam Dunn--.185 AVG, 2 BB, 10 K. Austin Kearns--0 HR, .227, 3 BB, 8 K. Also, look at some RAR (runs above replacement) levels from the 3 primary outfielders for the following teams--LA Angels 74.5; Boston 78.0; and Cincinnati 20.9. With totals like that, it's hard to argue that the Reds OF is anywhere near 2nd place.
Division Stretch Continues
The Reds return home for 3 against Houston, 2 with Chicago, and 2 with Pittsburgh. Brandon Claussen will get his first start against those Cubs. Wait until he proves he can lower his BB total before you consider a spot start. With a 1-4 road trip, the Reds could use a solid homestand to avoid digging a hole in the division this early in April. Keep riding Harang despite the hiccup against St. Louis. Casey will come around. Yeah, he's only walked once, but with only 4 Ks, he is making solid contact. The hits will come soon. A 3-4 game against the Cards today is a good start. Freel has gotten on base in 8 of his first 15 plate appearances. He's been caught stealing 3 times, but 30 SBs don't seem a stretch with a good OBP. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.
Does that mean anything? Well, 3 of the top 7 in that category made the playoffs. It does mean that it's very hard for them to score a lot of runs because their AVG will be so low (12th, 15th, and 13th 2002-04). This offense, which is supposed to be so good, hasn't finished above 10th in runs scored in the NL in that same span. Everyone knows about Adam Dunn's new K record, but the Reds had 4 players in the top 40 in strikeouts last year--more than any team in the NL. This is a serious problem and until we see a downward trend in the whiffs, the offensive woes should continue. That means that most players in the lineup will be an AVG drag for you. It wouldn't surprise me if the only Reds who end up with an AVG above league average (.270) are Casey, Randa, and maybe Jimenez.
So that's bad. It doesn’t end there. Another reason Reds fans (and fantasy owners) should hate the letter K is because of the pitching philosophy they herald. Pitching coach Don Gullett and manager Dave Miley would have us believe that mowing the opposing lineup down really isn't that big a deal. Any casual Reds fan has heard by now of the "pitch to contact" philosophy. The Reds have finished no higher than 12th in the NL in both K/BB and BBs the last 3 seasons, and Gullett (while one of the best pitching coaches there is) decided it would be a good idea to just throw to the hitters, let them put it in play, and get them out instead of walking everyone who showed up at the plate with a stick. This, in principle, is not all bad. In practice, it won't work. Here's why.
MLB K/9 rates and the corresponding average ERA (courtesy of Baseball HQ): 0.0-3.9 (4.97), 4.0-4.9 (4.75), 5.0-5.9 (4.47), 6.0-6.9 (4.32), 7.0-7.9 (4.16), 8.0-8.9 (3.87), 9.0+ (3.22). This makes the obvious statement that the more batters you keep from hitting the ball, the better your ERA will be. The Reds shouldn't be pitching to contact. Batters who never strike out would hit around .300 consistently. Voros McCracken has done research on that in the past with hit rate. The good news of all this is that the Reds have several starters who can sit hitters down at a good rate (Milton, Harang, Claussen, and Hudson). The bad news is that 3 of those 4 have other issues. Bottom line--next time you hear someone talking about "pitching to contact", politely tell them to shut up.
Pitching Woes
The rotation is having both physical and statistical woes. First, Ramon Ortiz was scratched from his start on Wednesday because his stiffness in this groin and thigh. The Reds will give him a little time off to make sure it doesn't get worse. For the 0.3 percent of you who own him, this is another reminder the waive button is usually at the bottom of the page. The statistical woes (although not at all unexpected) belong to Eric Milton. That's 2 starts, 9.2 IP, 5 HR. That outlandish rate won't continue--but it will serve as an early warning that this will be a problem all year. If you don't mind the ERA spike, he'll give you the Ks and 10-12 wins. And if you'd like to dispute my prediction of 35 HRs, you can find me behind the fence during Milton's starts shagging flies.
Outlandish Outfield?
Sports Illustrated recently ranked the Cincinnati Reds trio of Dunn, Griffey, and Kearns as the 2nd best OF in the majors behind the Los Angeles Angels (Anderson, Finley, and Guerrero). Does that hold water? As long as you don't count AVG. Griffey's off to a good start, showing what he can do when he's healthy--although 0 HR and 2 BB vs. 8 K show that the .292 AVG isn't a good as it looks. Adam Dunn--.185 AVG, 2 BB, 10 K. Austin Kearns--0 HR, .227, 3 BB, 8 K. Also, look at some RAR (runs above replacement) levels from the 3 primary outfielders for the following teams--LA Angels 74.5; Boston 78.0; and Cincinnati 20.9. With totals like that, it's hard to argue that the Reds OF is anywhere near 2nd place.
Division Stretch Continues
The Reds return home for 3 against Houston, 2 with Chicago, and 2 with Pittsburgh. Brandon Claussen will get his first start against those Cubs. Wait until he proves he can lower his BB total before you consider a spot start. With a 1-4 road trip, the Reds could use a solid homestand to avoid digging a hole in the division this early in April. Keep riding Harang despite the hiccup against St. Louis. Casey will come around. Yeah, he's only walked once, but with only 4 Ks, he is making solid contact. The hits will come soon. A 3-4 game against the Cards today is a good start. Freel has gotten on base in 8 of his first 15 plate appearances. He's been caught stealing 3 times, but 30 SBs don't seem a stretch with a good OBP. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.
