Thursday, June 02, 2005
Bizarro Reds
I leave the country for a little over a week, excited about my new marriage but resigned to the fact that the Reds will be the same stinky, underperforming, undermanaged dreck when I return, and Danny Boy & Co. decide to turn conventional Reds wisdom on its head. Huge moves. Danny Graves--bye bye. D'Angelo Jimenez--AA's that way. Felipe Lopez ties his career high in HR in MAY, and he's hitting almost .300. Ryan Freel is solidified in the starting lineup and getting long overdue credit. Am I back in the same country, the same world, the same existence? Okay, yeah, the Reds still stink--that's not new at all. The way things look, they could really end up dead last in the NL Central (Houston won't be this bad all year). You know what, though? These new Reds? I like 'em.
Turn 2
Although fantasy geeks (including myself) would still like to see Freel get the occastional day in the OF or at 3B, the fact that he's basically the everyday option at 2B is victory for his talent and his owners. More than 30 SBs is almost a certainty now along with a real shot at 40. An average of .300 also isn't out of the question with an outstanding .429 OBP and a BB/K ratio of 1.41. Enjoy it. As for Lopez, we discussed the power surge (which is over his head but not completely unsubstantiated). He could finish with high teen HRs in a full-time role. The average will come down, but he's past his career .243 AVG days now. Don't expect nearly the same speed from Felipe as you'd get from Freel--they're in 2 different leagues there. I'd add him in a deep league--SS is his to lose.
Any Closer to a Closer?
The Reds haven't had a closer all year (even before the release of Graves) and they don't have one now that he's gone either. But the short answer is probably no. There have been 2 save opportunities since Graves' departure--1 went to Weathers, who converted, and one went to Wagner, who didn't. Miley could choose to go with Weathers or put the eggs in Wagner's basket early, which is want most fans want anyway. Mercker could even get a few. To me, Wagner just isn't a closer yet. Make no mistake--he will be. He will be a super closer, just like I will be 30 some day. Right now, I'm thankfully still in my 20's and Ryan Wagner has still just logged 99.1 career MLB innings. The Reds won't compete in '05. No reason to rush Wagner. Give him 1 occasionally and bide your time. We'll see.
I Don't Miss Jose Guillen Anymore
When the Reds opened up the Great American Flea Market to the Firesale of 2003 that saw names like Aaron Boone and Jose Guillen hit the road, I was screaming at the trees, "Don't trade Jose Guillen! Trade Griffey! Kearns! The new mascot Gapper (still think the Reds should ship him out)!" But, of course, the Reds sent Guillen to Oakland for Aaron Harang and spare parts. I still miss Jose Guillen, but they really got something special in return on this deal. Aaron Harang's ERA is 2.97 despite just 4 wins. His K/9 is 7.7 and his K/BB is 3.0. Aaron Harang is for real, people, and still available in 60% of mixed leagues. This is your last chance to get in on Harang. A few more gems like Monday (7 IP, 10 K) and you'll be too late.
The Red Cross
Wily Mo Pena is finally doing a minor league rehab stint in Louisville after being out entirely too long with a quad issue. He fanned in his first 2 AAA ABs, so it may be a little bit before he's up to speed. Don't be surprised to see him in the lineup when he finally returns though--Austin Kearns is still just absolutely awful. Rich Aurilia is back but not in time to save his job at SS. He'll be in the Ryan Freel role, but won't have the benefit of playing OF to up his ABs. No reason to own him anyway. Paul Wilson currently has no timetable for return, but the Cincinnati Enquirer reports he's at least been tossing the ball around. As with Aurilia, you shouldn't be in a position of having to track his progress. Luke Hudson and Josh Hancock are still awaiting rehab assignments.
Eric…Colon?
Last season, Bartolo Colon was coming off a May where he had a 6.37 ERA, gave up 8 HR in 29 IP, and batters hit .289 against him. This May, Milton has fared even worse (7.29, 10 HR, .297). Colon struggled through June even worse but righted the ship to post a 12-4 record, 3.64 ERA, and .232 OBA in the 2nd half. Is there any indication that Eric Milton could be in for that kind of turnaround? I'm in a 20-team league where he is sitting right out there in the free agent pool. Sadly, I may just have to let him stay there. EM has shown no indication of keeping the ball in the park. Colon's G/F ratio was 0.91 in '04; Milton's is 0.60 in '05. That's a big difference. Milton's K/9 is 5.4. Colon's was almost 7.0. So, for now, Eric Milton's cologne smells nothing like Bartolo.
Good News is No News
Considering how much flak Ken Griffey Jr. took over his multiple injuries since becoming a Red, it's funny that 2 months into the season with Griffey having played in all but 3 games is such a non-story. Why is that? Because his numbers aren't 1997 Griffey. We loves a comeback but Griffey's has been pretty vanilla. No, 8 HR isn't bad at all, and yes, he's on pace for 100+ RBI, but the Reds are in 5th and his average is .266. Still, Griffey's playing hard and quite well for an injury-prone 35-year-old. I'd like to take a minute to applaud a player I've always wanted to see do well. He's playing every day and not saying, "Hey guys! Look at me! What about me now?" Stay in the lineup, Griff--glad to see you healthy. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.
Turn 2
Although fantasy geeks (including myself) would still like to see Freel get the occastional day in the OF or at 3B, the fact that he's basically the everyday option at 2B is victory for his talent and his owners. More than 30 SBs is almost a certainty now along with a real shot at 40. An average of .300 also isn't out of the question with an outstanding .429 OBP and a BB/K ratio of 1.41. Enjoy it. As for Lopez, we discussed the power surge (which is over his head but not completely unsubstantiated). He could finish with high teen HRs in a full-time role. The average will come down, but he's past his career .243 AVG days now. Don't expect nearly the same speed from Felipe as you'd get from Freel--they're in 2 different leagues there. I'd add him in a deep league--SS is his to lose.
Any Closer to a Closer?
The Reds haven't had a closer all year (even before the release of Graves) and they don't have one now that he's gone either. But the short answer is probably no. There have been 2 save opportunities since Graves' departure--1 went to Weathers, who converted, and one went to Wagner, who didn't. Miley could choose to go with Weathers or put the eggs in Wagner's basket early, which is want most fans want anyway. Mercker could even get a few. To me, Wagner just isn't a closer yet. Make no mistake--he will be. He will be a super closer, just like I will be 30 some day. Right now, I'm thankfully still in my 20's and Ryan Wagner has still just logged 99.1 career MLB innings. The Reds won't compete in '05. No reason to rush Wagner. Give him 1 occasionally and bide your time. We'll see.
I Don't Miss Jose Guillen Anymore
When the Reds opened up the Great American Flea Market to the Firesale of 2003 that saw names like Aaron Boone and Jose Guillen hit the road, I was screaming at the trees, "Don't trade Jose Guillen! Trade Griffey! Kearns! The new mascot Gapper (still think the Reds should ship him out)!" But, of course, the Reds sent Guillen to Oakland for Aaron Harang and spare parts. I still miss Jose Guillen, but they really got something special in return on this deal. Aaron Harang's ERA is 2.97 despite just 4 wins. His K/9 is 7.7 and his K/BB is 3.0. Aaron Harang is for real, people, and still available in 60% of mixed leagues. This is your last chance to get in on Harang. A few more gems like Monday (7 IP, 10 K) and you'll be too late.
The Red Cross
Wily Mo Pena is finally doing a minor league rehab stint in Louisville after being out entirely too long with a quad issue. He fanned in his first 2 AAA ABs, so it may be a little bit before he's up to speed. Don't be surprised to see him in the lineup when he finally returns though--Austin Kearns is still just absolutely awful. Rich Aurilia is back but not in time to save his job at SS. He'll be in the Ryan Freel role, but won't have the benefit of playing OF to up his ABs. No reason to own him anyway. Paul Wilson currently has no timetable for return, but the Cincinnati Enquirer reports he's at least been tossing the ball around. As with Aurilia, you shouldn't be in a position of having to track his progress. Luke Hudson and Josh Hancock are still awaiting rehab assignments.
Eric…Colon?
Last season, Bartolo Colon was coming off a May where he had a 6.37 ERA, gave up 8 HR in 29 IP, and batters hit .289 against him. This May, Milton has fared even worse (7.29, 10 HR, .297). Colon struggled through June even worse but righted the ship to post a 12-4 record, 3.64 ERA, and .232 OBA in the 2nd half. Is there any indication that Eric Milton could be in for that kind of turnaround? I'm in a 20-team league where he is sitting right out there in the free agent pool. Sadly, I may just have to let him stay there. EM has shown no indication of keeping the ball in the park. Colon's G/F ratio was 0.91 in '04; Milton's is 0.60 in '05. That's a big difference. Milton's K/9 is 5.4. Colon's was almost 7.0. So, for now, Eric Milton's cologne smells nothing like Bartolo.
Good News is No News
Considering how much flak Ken Griffey Jr. took over his multiple injuries since becoming a Red, it's funny that 2 months into the season with Griffey having played in all but 3 games is such a non-story. Why is that? Because his numbers aren't 1997 Griffey. We loves a comeback but Griffey's has been pretty vanilla. No, 8 HR isn't bad at all, and yes, he's on pace for 100+ RBI, but the Reds are in 5th and his average is .266. Still, Griffey's playing hard and quite well for an injury-prone 35-year-old. I'd like to take a minute to applaud a player I've always wanted to see do well. He's playing every day and not saying, "Hey guys! Look at me! What about me now?" Stay in the lineup, Griff--glad to see you healthy. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.
