Tuesday, May 03, 2005
Split Decisions
In recent years, the Reds haven't exactly had a bevy of fantasy-must players. Sure, there are 3 or so every year and a few more who'll help you in deeper leagues, but the Reds (like the White Sox of old) have "won ugly" for a number of years now. In 2005, more than ever though, there are extenuating circumstances that are leaving the Reds with fewer fantasy options than usual. Spring training may have been over for a month now, but there are 3 positions on the diamond where the "starter" isn't actually starting 75% of the time. Of course, as any fantasy owner knows, your "everyday player" doesn't do much damage from the bench. Let's take a look at these splits to see if there will be any change and also see if we can determine who should play.
RF: Austin Kearns/Wily Mo Pena
This is the big daddy. For two guys who are 7th and 9th on the team in ABs, I get more e-mail about this duo than anyone else. It's easy to see why--two players who show quite a bit of promise that start just 3-4 times a week. Miley has played the hot hand--first Kearns from the spring, then Pena later. Then Wily Mo got hurt--back to Kearns. Now Pena starts yesterday. What's next? Unfortunately, more spotty play. I would say Wily Mo probably has more opportunity to win the job outright. He has a higher upside, regardless of how raw he is. You have to wonder how much upside Kearns has left with a 64% contact rate, the result of him missing the ball more year after year. Granted, Pena is hardly better (67%), but he's got rare high-level power and he's healthier.
2B: D'Angelo Jimenez/Ryan Freel
Before the season, because of the economics of baseball ('05 salary: Jimenez, 2.87M; Freel, 405K), I would've told you that Freel had no shot to usurp Jimenez at 2B. With a month in the books now, the differences and trends make it so obvious that Freel should play everyday that Miley and O'Brien may have to make a permanent move. Freel is hitting .319 (this after a .125 week), his Ks and BBs are almost even, his OBP is .439, he's swiped 5 bags and is the fastest guy on the team, and he's really improving with his glove. Jimenez, even with a little misfortune, is only hitting .197, has walked less in than Freel in 24 more ABs, and has an OBP of .288. Yes, Jimenez is younger, but Freel's a sparkplug who is just a better lead off hitter. Watch this closely--Freel may win out.
SS: Rich Aurilia/Felipe Lopez
I don't know why the Reds invited Rich Aurilia to spring training. I get it that he's a vet who's had success. That was 2001 (hitting in front of Bonds). This is 2005. I was a manager of a 20-screen movie theater in 2001. Now, I'm a research editor. Things change. Aurilia was an asset in '01. Now he's not. Things change. I'm not saying Lopez is the Golden Child, mind you. He is Knoblauchian in his ability to take a perfectly routine ground ball and wing it into the dugout. But he's hitting better. Period. And he's 9 years younger. If he'd give up the dream and just hit righty, he'd probably be better off. You get the feeling, though, that Lopez would really have to blow the doors off to get equal or more PT. That leaves him virtually worthless for now.
Griffey Isn't A Fool
I got some mail about Junior after the last column asking if his start should be considered a "fool" or "fool's gold". There was a reason that Junior wasn't included. I think it's probably fairly close to reality. Just like Aurilia, things change, and this is 2005 and this is Griffey as we have to come to know him and embrace him now. His defense, to his credit, has been very good so far this season. But his "diluted" offense now is what I would call the decline of age. Every player gets there. Junior just got there at 35. He's strikes out more, his G/F ratio is at its highest since 1990, and his .280+ days are over. He's could still swat 20 or so, but as much as I like Griffey, his latest medical condition is simply called Father Time.
Bloat, Bloat, Bloat
There really aren't words to shape how the Reds bloatpen makes me feel. The amalgam that comprises 11.25M of the payroll currently sports a 6.01 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, a BB/9 of 4.8, and opponents are hitting .294 against them. I give up--no backhanded joke or verbal malaise will suffice, so I'm just sit quietly and reflect. What happened to the days of Scott Sullivan, Stan Belinda, even Chuck McElroy? Hall of Famers none of them, but at they ate innings effectively and--Got. People. Out. Danny Graves was upset after getting booed off the mound in only his first blown save of the year. The reason for all the boos was that fans were saving them up from the previous 8 saves when he turned their stomaches but stumbled to the save. It's hard to boo after a win, no matter the path to victory.
Soft Tosses
Graves will not be replaced at closer any time soon. Regardless of how you (and I) feel, he still has a 88% save rate. Ramon Ortiz is back in the rotation. Yawn. Two IP, 7 hits, and 6 ER don't exactly do it for me, how about you? Aaron Harang has had 3 superior starts out of 5. Are the 99% or you in mixed leagues who don't own him yet still need starting pitching listening? Are the 6.7% of you in mixed leagues who instead own Eric Milton and his 5.79 ERA and 11 HR in 32.2 IP listening? Inside Ryan Freel's line on 4/30: 2 BB, 3 SB despite an 0-3 day--exactly the kind of potential that shows you why you can use the fantasy versatile Freel. Tough homestand--STL, LA, and SD--but the Reds are 7-4 at home. 3-11 on the road. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.
RF: Austin Kearns/Wily Mo Pena
This is the big daddy. For two guys who are 7th and 9th on the team in ABs, I get more e-mail about this duo than anyone else. It's easy to see why--two players who show quite a bit of promise that start just 3-4 times a week. Miley has played the hot hand--first Kearns from the spring, then Pena later. Then Wily Mo got hurt--back to Kearns. Now Pena starts yesterday. What's next? Unfortunately, more spotty play. I would say Wily Mo probably has more opportunity to win the job outright. He has a higher upside, regardless of how raw he is. You have to wonder how much upside Kearns has left with a 64% contact rate, the result of him missing the ball more year after year. Granted, Pena is hardly better (67%), but he's got rare high-level power and he's healthier.
2B: D'Angelo Jimenez/Ryan Freel
Before the season, because of the economics of baseball ('05 salary: Jimenez, 2.87M; Freel, 405K), I would've told you that Freel had no shot to usurp Jimenez at 2B. With a month in the books now, the differences and trends make it so obvious that Freel should play everyday that Miley and O'Brien may have to make a permanent move. Freel is hitting .319 (this after a .125 week), his Ks and BBs are almost even, his OBP is .439, he's swiped 5 bags and is the fastest guy on the team, and he's really improving with his glove. Jimenez, even with a little misfortune, is only hitting .197, has walked less in than Freel in 24 more ABs, and has an OBP of .288. Yes, Jimenez is younger, but Freel's a sparkplug who is just a better lead off hitter. Watch this closely--Freel may win out.
SS: Rich Aurilia/Felipe Lopez
I don't know why the Reds invited Rich Aurilia to spring training. I get it that he's a vet who's had success. That was 2001 (hitting in front of Bonds). This is 2005. I was a manager of a 20-screen movie theater in 2001. Now, I'm a research editor. Things change. Aurilia was an asset in '01. Now he's not. Things change. I'm not saying Lopez is the Golden Child, mind you. He is Knoblauchian in his ability to take a perfectly routine ground ball and wing it into the dugout. But he's hitting better. Period. And he's 9 years younger. If he'd give up the dream and just hit righty, he'd probably be better off. You get the feeling, though, that Lopez would really have to blow the doors off to get equal or more PT. That leaves him virtually worthless for now.
Griffey Isn't A Fool
I got some mail about Junior after the last column asking if his start should be considered a "fool" or "fool's gold". There was a reason that Junior wasn't included. I think it's probably fairly close to reality. Just like Aurilia, things change, and this is 2005 and this is Griffey as we have to come to know him and embrace him now. His defense, to his credit, has been very good so far this season. But his "diluted" offense now is what I would call the decline of age. Every player gets there. Junior just got there at 35. He's strikes out more, his G/F ratio is at its highest since 1990, and his .280+ days are over. He's could still swat 20 or so, but as much as I like Griffey, his latest medical condition is simply called Father Time.
Bloat, Bloat, Bloat
There really aren't words to shape how the Reds bloatpen makes me feel. The amalgam that comprises 11.25M of the payroll currently sports a 6.01 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, a BB/9 of 4.8, and opponents are hitting .294 against them. I give up--no backhanded joke or verbal malaise will suffice, so I'm just sit quietly and reflect. What happened to the days of Scott Sullivan, Stan Belinda, even Chuck McElroy? Hall of Famers none of them, but at they ate innings effectively and--Got. People. Out. Danny Graves was upset after getting booed off the mound in only his first blown save of the year. The reason for all the boos was that fans were saving them up from the previous 8 saves when he turned their stomaches but stumbled to the save. It's hard to boo after a win, no matter the path to victory.
Soft Tosses
Graves will not be replaced at closer any time soon. Regardless of how you (and I) feel, he still has a 88% save rate. Ramon Ortiz is back in the rotation. Yawn. Two IP, 7 hits, and 6 ER don't exactly do it for me, how about you? Aaron Harang has had 3 superior starts out of 5. Are the 99% or you in mixed leagues who don't own him yet still need starting pitching listening? Are the 6.7% of you in mixed leagues who instead own Eric Milton and his 5.79 ERA and 11 HR in 32.2 IP listening? Inside Ryan Freel's line on 4/30: 2 BB, 3 SB despite an 0-3 day--exactly the kind of potential that shows you why you can use the fantasy versatile Freel. Tough homestand--STL, LA, and SD--but the Reds are 7-4 at home. 3-11 on the road. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.
