Tuesday, May 10, 2005
The Paul Wilson Club
Let me tell you about a very exclusive group. It was founded on 5.28.03 as The Jeff Austin Club after his 5 ER performance against the Marlins in which he didn't record a single out before being yanked. The membership grew when Paul Wilson was inducted weeks later at Houston, blowing up for 7 ER without a single batter retired before hitting the showers. Now, almost two years later, Wilson is not only a member, he's also now the president after his 5 H, 8 ER coup de grace. He's the 3rd Reds starter since the start of 2002 to not get out of inning 1 and he's done it twice (Austin also did it again in his very next start in '03, but got 2 outs before getting pulled. Luis Pineda couldn't get of the 1st @ STL on 6.30.02, but he at least retired 1). Hail to the new Chief, Mr. Paul Wilson.
There have been frequent warnings in this column in the recent past about the risk you acquire if you decide to roster Paul Wilson. Only 0.1% of you in mixed leagues haven't listened, and 47.6% of NL owners have surmised that Wilson could be of some use to their squad. Hopefully unless you're an owner who absolutely can't find pitching anywhere else, you'll finally take heed and waive Wilson accordingly. I hear plenty of great things about Paul Wilson's character, but character doesn't bring home roto points. You might argue that Wilson has had 4 "quality starts" out of 7, but I'll tell you that the quality start is an idiotic stat and that Wilson's 7 IP, 3 ER, 9 K turn vs. PIT on 4.20 has been his only good start of the year. Wilson is a 4 or 5 NL starter at best.
Comin' Around
After hitting .258 through 4.23, Sean Casey is now up to .280 and has been as high as .316, leading the Reds in multi-hit games with 7. His G/F ratio is up to 2.28, most of those hit hard to the right side, making him easier to defend. That many grounders also means that HRs will be few and far between, but if you've got him for AVG, you're going to be satisfied. He's only hitting .230 at home, but that will change with better luck. Another Red who is "startin' to come together, boys", as Lou Brown would say, is Ken Griffey Jr. Number 30 is 5 for his last 17 with 2 bombs. Griff is another guy who's hitting a lot more grounders than normal. His G/F is over 1.00 and its highest since 1992 (1.22). His May success shouldn't surprise--it's his highest career OBP month (.984).
PT Phone Home
Last time we talked about the issues with PT at several positions. A week later, there's yet another wrinkle--it appears now that Ryan Freel is going to start siphoning off ABs from Austin Kearns in RF. His .338 AVG and .456 OBP make it easy to see why he has to be in the lineup everyday, especially on a team that's struggling like the Reds. He has now passed Jimenez for the most plate appearances on the team in the leadoff spot (70 to 63). I think it's a safe bet that Freel will be playing just about every day for the foreseeable future (either at 2B or RF). As they say, talent always rises to the top, and Freel is certainly making the most of 2005 so far. For Kearns owners, I've told several e-mailers that if there are any even remotely better options, I'd waive bye-bye to Austin.
The Red Cross
Wily Mo Pena leads the list of Reds that owners most want to see back in the lineup. For now, though, his quad is limiting him to strictly pinch-hit duty, and it's not encouraging that he's coming along so slowly since his injury April 23. Those of you with Pena will just have to be patient, but the good news is that once he is available, he's likely going to get a chance to pick up where he left off, getting the nod before Kearns, who's in a real rut now. Josh Hancock and Luke Hudson are still being brought along very slowly--the faster they heal, the sooner the Reds have to come to big decision with Brandon Claussen, Hudson, and Hancock all involved. Ramon Ortiz is apparently OK after his 2nd start back from his groin injury, but neither start has been very impressive.
Bombs Away!
In case you're wondering, the Eric Milton Home Run Ticker is up to 13 in 39.1 IP. You don't need high math to see that that's right at 3 every 9 IP. Sure, he's got a 22/7 K/BB ratio (which is excellent), but his K/9 is 5.0 and it's tough to be very dominant with that few whiffs. Opponents are also hitting .303 against him so far, which is another huge red flag, although batters have been fortunate with a 35% hit rate. I'd love to give you a stat saying that he's starting to get more consistent but he's really not. He's started 7 games and given up a bomb in all of them but one (4.16 vs. HOU). Only one other start (5.2 vs. STL) was great, so right now it's just best to say that Milton has the potential to be better, but not until he can keep it in the park a lot more.
I Want the Same Thing!
I've been quite a bit of mail about Ryan Wagner supplanting Danny Graves as closer. Some of you have tried the tack of pleading with me to have a sit down with Miley to discuss this option. As much as I'd love to have Miley's ear, I don't--but I can tell you that he probably wouldn't listen. Graves is going to be the closer (a bitter reality I've stated here many, many times--check the archives at http://theredletters.blogspot.com). Yes, there is the real potential for a major Chernobylesque meltdown, but until it happens, Graves gets the ball in the 9th. Period. His numbers are absolutely horrific, but he's what you're going to have deal with. I'm sorry, but there's nothing I can do except say 'don't jump off the roof yet'. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.
There have been frequent warnings in this column in the recent past about the risk you acquire if you decide to roster Paul Wilson. Only 0.1% of you in mixed leagues haven't listened, and 47.6% of NL owners have surmised that Wilson could be of some use to their squad. Hopefully unless you're an owner who absolutely can't find pitching anywhere else, you'll finally take heed and waive Wilson accordingly. I hear plenty of great things about Paul Wilson's character, but character doesn't bring home roto points. You might argue that Wilson has had 4 "quality starts" out of 7, but I'll tell you that the quality start is an idiotic stat and that Wilson's 7 IP, 3 ER, 9 K turn vs. PIT on 4.20 has been his only good start of the year. Wilson is a 4 or 5 NL starter at best.
Comin' Around
After hitting .258 through 4.23, Sean Casey is now up to .280 and has been as high as .316, leading the Reds in multi-hit games with 7. His G/F ratio is up to 2.28, most of those hit hard to the right side, making him easier to defend. That many grounders also means that HRs will be few and far between, but if you've got him for AVG, you're going to be satisfied. He's only hitting .230 at home, but that will change with better luck. Another Red who is "startin' to come together, boys", as Lou Brown would say, is Ken Griffey Jr. Number 30 is 5 for his last 17 with 2 bombs. Griff is another guy who's hitting a lot more grounders than normal. His G/F is over 1.00 and its highest since 1992 (1.22). His May success shouldn't surprise--it's his highest career OBP month (.984).
PT Phone Home
Last time we talked about the issues with PT at several positions. A week later, there's yet another wrinkle--it appears now that Ryan Freel is going to start siphoning off ABs from Austin Kearns in RF. His .338 AVG and .456 OBP make it easy to see why he has to be in the lineup everyday, especially on a team that's struggling like the Reds. He has now passed Jimenez for the most plate appearances on the team in the leadoff spot (70 to 63). I think it's a safe bet that Freel will be playing just about every day for the foreseeable future (either at 2B or RF). As they say, talent always rises to the top, and Freel is certainly making the most of 2005 so far. For Kearns owners, I've told several e-mailers that if there are any even remotely better options, I'd waive bye-bye to Austin.
The Red Cross
Wily Mo Pena leads the list of Reds that owners most want to see back in the lineup. For now, though, his quad is limiting him to strictly pinch-hit duty, and it's not encouraging that he's coming along so slowly since his injury April 23. Those of you with Pena will just have to be patient, but the good news is that once he is available, he's likely going to get a chance to pick up where he left off, getting the nod before Kearns, who's in a real rut now. Josh Hancock and Luke Hudson are still being brought along very slowly--the faster they heal, the sooner the Reds have to come to big decision with Brandon Claussen, Hudson, and Hancock all involved. Ramon Ortiz is apparently OK after his 2nd start back from his groin injury, but neither start has been very impressive.
Bombs Away!
In case you're wondering, the Eric Milton Home Run Ticker is up to 13 in 39.1 IP. You don't need high math to see that that's right at 3 every 9 IP. Sure, he's got a 22/7 K/BB ratio (which is excellent), but his K/9 is 5.0 and it's tough to be very dominant with that few whiffs. Opponents are also hitting .303 against him so far, which is another huge red flag, although batters have been fortunate with a 35% hit rate. I'd love to give you a stat saying that he's starting to get more consistent but he's really not. He's started 7 games and given up a bomb in all of them but one (4.16 vs. HOU). Only one other start (5.2 vs. STL) was great, so right now it's just best to say that Milton has the potential to be better, but not until he can keep it in the park a lot more.
I Want the Same Thing!
I've been quite a bit of mail about Ryan Wagner supplanting Danny Graves as closer. Some of you have tried the tack of pleading with me to have a sit down with Miley to discuss this option. As much as I'd love to have Miley's ear, I don't--but I can tell you that he probably wouldn't listen. Graves is going to be the closer (a bitter reality I've stated here many, many times--check the archives at http://theredletters.blogspot.com). Yes, there is the real potential for a major Chernobylesque meltdown, but until it happens, Graves gets the ball in the 9th. Period. His numbers are absolutely horrific, but he's what you're going to have deal with. I'm sorry, but there's nothing I can do except say 'don't jump off the roof yet'. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.
