Tuesday, June 28, 2005
The Other Shoe Drops
COO John Allen put his foot down with a surprise trip to Colorado June 5th to tell the Reds that something had to change. Something did--Dave Miley was fired. And this just in--the Reds will still stink. Miley didn't do anything wrong by this team. They scored and scored to no avail and the pitching just itches of Rocky Mountain Fever. Sure, Miley wasn't the greatest situational game manager, but he did a pretty good job at managing his personnel. If anything, he was a little too good to the players--which in turn, caused a bit of ruckus when he did try to impart a little discipline by removing the massage chairs of Ken Griffey and Adam Dunn from the clubhouse. Dunn wouldn't shut up the local media about it, even changing his at-bat music to George Strait's "The Chair."
In the end, Miley was only partly to blame. It's true that he really didn't have control of the team near the end. He and Gullett got even less out of a pitching staff capable of giving them very little in the first place, but as they say, you can't fire the players (ah, but if you could…), so, alas, Miley must go to give the impression of a change in direction. But don't be fooled--it won't be. This team, because of how absolutely terrible this collective of arms is, will (and should) sit in the cellar of the NL Central for the rest of the year. I know that Pittsburgh and Milwaukee have a bad rep for always being terrible, but make no mistake, both of those clubs have better teams that the Reds. The Bucs don't have much of an offense, but they do have Oliver Perez and Mark Redman.
So How About Those Bats?
No, the AAA affiliate in Louisville, although those guys are at least close to .500 baseball. Well, in case you hadn't noticed, Felipe Lopez is for real now. The .301 average is legit, although he'll need to keep improving on those Ks if he wants to do it every year. The power has always been there. He's making much better contact than he ever has in the majors and his minors history shows he can continue. Remember, he's only 25 and he's got a bright future in front of him now (including a probable All-Star appearance). There might be some owners who think that he's playing over his head. Find them. He's not. Felipe's finally ready. Despite being on the DL, see his average down to .287 with only 9 RBI, Ryan Freel has 21 SB and a .406 OBP, so he's another prime target.
What you're seeing from Griffey is what you're going to continue to get. Griff has always been a consistent producer when he's healthy, it's just that not too many of us remember what that's like. I've said it multiple times before, New Griffey isn't as good as All-Century Griffey, but age gets us all and it's still good production for a 35-year-old. Sean Casey will probably hit .330+ this year. Sure the HRs are down, but that happen when your G/F ratio is 2.00. Last year, when he mashed 24 HR, it was 1.33--the lowest of his career. Interesting note about Casey--he's hit into 18 DPs already this year (most in NL). His career high is 19 ('03). He could pass that by the All-Star Break. Wily Mo Pena has struck out at least 1 in all but 2 games this month. His .275 will drop.
The Red Cross: Wilson is a Castaway
With just 1 win in '05, Paul Wilson hasn't been much more helpful to the Reds than, say, a volleyball to keep the players company, and now he'll miss the rest of the season. While you won't miss him for your fantasy needs, the replacement the Reds will use for the remainder of the year (Luke Hudson), probably won't fare much better. Thus far, he's looked below average in his 4 starts; 7 ER @ CLE isn't a good sign. There isn't any help in AAA, either, unless you count Elizardo Ramirez, who didn't shine in his time with the big club. He's also only 22 and obviously needs more time in the minors, although it's not really clear whether or not he'll ever be dominant enough to pitch successfully at the MLB level. Josh Hancock's rehab ERA is 10.34 in 3 starts, so don't look for him back yet.
Kearns Making Noises in Louisville
Although Austin Kearns is "having a good time" in AAA, he did tell the Dayton Daily News that "there comes a time when you want to get established with a team and play every day" and wouldn't be opposed to going elsewhere to be able to do that. Well, despite the fact that he's hitting .333 in Louisville, that doesn't count toward his emaciated .224 average in Cincinnati and walking 18 times compared to fanning 50 times is hardly "establishing" oneself, but I get what he meant, I suppose. The article went on to say that the Reds don't answer trade queries for Kearns despite the apparent interest of several teams (Altanta, Washington, Chicago Cubs). Kearns has done little to prove he'll contribute anywhere in '05, but if he makes a move, keep an eye on him.
Looking Up
The Reds have managed 6-10 in facing a rough stretch of contending teams (BAL, BOS, ATL, STL, CLE) and are putting more runs on the board than everyone in the NL but St. Louis, but they've now passed Coloardo in runs allowed and lead the NL with 441. That is on a pace for 952 allowed for the year. Only 3 NL teams have ever allowed that many runs in a single season, and none of those were outside of Colorado ('93, '96, '99 Rockies). Please drop any Reds pitcher you have now. Enjoy the hitters all you like, but get rid of any Reds who walks near a mound (except for Aaron Harang). Vern Ruhle has seen the ERA of every staff that he's coached go up, so that's the only thing looking up as far as the pitching's concerned. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.
In the end, Miley was only partly to blame. It's true that he really didn't have control of the team near the end. He and Gullett got even less out of a pitching staff capable of giving them very little in the first place, but as they say, you can't fire the players (ah, but if you could…), so, alas, Miley must go to give the impression of a change in direction. But don't be fooled--it won't be. This team, because of how absolutely terrible this collective of arms is, will (and should) sit in the cellar of the NL Central for the rest of the year. I know that Pittsburgh and Milwaukee have a bad rep for always being terrible, but make no mistake, both of those clubs have better teams that the Reds. The Bucs don't have much of an offense, but they do have Oliver Perez and Mark Redman.
So How About Those Bats?
No, the AAA affiliate in Louisville, although those guys are at least close to .500 baseball. Well, in case you hadn't noticed, Felipe Lopez is for real now. The .301 average is legit, although he'll need to keep improving on those Ks if he wants to do it every year. The power has always been there. He's making much better contact than he ever has in the majors and his minors history shows he can continue. Remember, he's only 25 and he's got a bright future in front of him now (including a probable All-Star appearance). There might be some owners who think that he's playing over his head. Find them. He's not. Felipe's finally ready. Despite being on the DL, see his average down to .287 with only 9 RBI, Ryan Freel has 21 SB and a .406 OBP, so he's another prime target.
What you're seeing from Griffey is what you're going to continue to get. Griff has always been a consistent producer when he's healthy, it's just that not too many of us remember what that's like. I've said it multiple times before, New Griffey isn't as good as All-Century Griffey, but age gets us all and it's still good production for a 35-year-old. Sean Casey will probably hit .330+ this year. Sure the HRs are down, but that happen when your G/F ratio is 2.00. Last year, when he mashed 24 HR, it was 1.33--the lowest of his career. Interesting note about Casey--he's hit into 18 DPs already this year (most in NL). His career high is 19 ('03). He could pass that by the All-Star Break. Wily Mo Pena has struck out at least 1 in all but 2 games this month. His .275 will drop.
The Red Cross: Wilson is a Castaway
With just 1 win in '05, Paul Wilson hasn't been much more helpful to the Reds than, say, a volleyball to keep the players company, and now he'll miss the rest of the season. While you won't miss him for your fantasy needs, the replacement the Reds will use for the remainder of the year (Luke Hudson), probably won't fare much better. Thus far, he's looked below average in his 4 starts; 7 ER @ CLE isn't a good sign. There isn't any help in AAA, either, unless you count Elizardo Ramirez, who didn't shine in his time with the big club. He's also only 22 and obviously needs more time in the minors, although it's not really clear whether or not he'll ever be dominant enough to pitch successfully at the MLB level. Josh Hancock's rehab ERA is 10.34 in 3 starts, so don't look for him back yet.
Kearns Making Noises in Louisville
Although Austin Kearns is "having a good time" in AAA, he did tell the Dayton Daily News that "there comes a time when you want to get established with a team and play every day" and wouldn't be opposed to going elsewhere to be able to do that. Well, despite the fact that he's hitting .333 in Louisville, that doesn't count toward his emaciated .224 average in Cincinnati and walking 18 times compared to fanning 50 times is hardly "establishing" oneself, but I get what he meant, I suppose. The article went on to say that the Reds don't answer trade queries for Kearns despite the apparent interest of several teams (Altanta, Washington, Chicago Cubs). Kearns has done little to prove he'll contribute anywhere in '05, but if he makes a move, keep an eye on him.
Looking Up
The Reds have managed 6-10 in facing a rough stretch of contending teams (BAL, BOS, ATL, STL, CLE) and are putting more runs on the board than everyone in the NL but St. Louis, but they've now passed Coloardo in runs allowed and lead the NL with 441. That is on a pace for 952 allowed for the year. Only 3 NL teams have ever allowed that many runs in a single season, and none of those were outside of Colorado ('93, '96, '99 Rockies). Please drop any Reds pitcher you have now. Enjoy the hitters all you like, but get rid of any Reds who walks near a mound (except for Aaron Harang). Vern Ruhle has seen the ERA of every staff that he's coached go up, so that's the only thing looking up as far as the pitching's concerned. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.
