Tuesday, June 14, 2005
Knowing When to Say When
I have a really hard time eating potato chips. I can't stop. Doesn't matter what kind--corn, tortilla, wavy--I can't stop once I've opened the bag until I'm absolutely stuffed. My wife either puts them in a sandwich bag now or puts a portion on my plate at dinnertime and declares the cabinet closed for business. It's just something about potato chips. For the Reds, Austin Kearns was their potato chips. Full of salty potential, cheesy goodness, and vivid taste, they just keep letting him hit and hit until it became bad for the team. GM Danny Boy has now officially closed the cabinet for business and sent Kearns to Louisville. And if Austin doesn't get it together down there, he's not coming back. I know that makes Reds fans and his owners very disappointed, but it's the right move.
What went wrong? Kearns was a 1st round pick. How did he get from potential Rookie of the Year candidate in 2002 to the abysmal hitter he is today? Well, he stopped making contact, for one. Contact %--'01 (AA): 84, '02: 79, '03: 77, '04: 70, '05: 71. He also started pressing at the plate, abandoning patience. BB/K ratio: '02: 0.70, '03: 0.60, '04: 0.48, '05: 0.36. These are trends that are very disturbing. I realize he's been injured, but he doesn't have that excuse any more and he's also got much more experience now. His bat still has occasional power, but with the lack of hitting skills, he becomes a dime a dozen. I like Kearns (even though I've said the Reds should've traded him 2 years in a row), but he's got to make a readjustment to ever be a quality major leaguer.
Freed Wily
Now that Kearns is gone, Pena will play everyday in RF--as long as he can stay healthy. With the quad issue that kept him out a month and now a sore knee, that's apparently no small task. He teased us all again with his 2 HR game vs. TB, but it's at least nice to know that the PT issue is out of the way for the immediate future. I recommend Wily Mo highly for those in need of power. I don't think this .313 AVG will hold, but the fact that he hits the ball so incredibly hard does give him a better chance of reaching base. Right now Wily Mo is hitting a HR just about 1 in every 8 ABs. That's all-world. With good health, it will be interesting to see how he responds with no one pushing him from the bench. We may be close to the coronation of a new megapower slugger.
A Full Plate
What's very cool is that the Reds have only scored 4 runs less than St. Louis' 323, which leads the NL in production. They've scored more runs that 25 of MLB's 30 teams. With Dunn, Griffey, Lopez, Casey, Freel, and Randa all having solid years (and oh,yeah, Wily Mo's back), the bell chimes often when the Reds have the sticks in hand. Only the STL, BOS, BAL, and TEX have scored more. In 9 of the Reds' last 10 wins, they've scored at least 9 runs. It's a good time to have a Reds hitter. What's inherently depressing about this is that they're still in last place and only the Giants and Rockies have worse records in the NL. Only the Devil Rays and Rockies have surrendered more runs. This of course should lead to a discussion on the pitching, but I'm afraid I'd start crying.
Saves?
Since Graves went bye-bye, the Reds have only recorded 2 (both by David Weathers). DW looks to be the best bet for the role right now, although Miley has repeatedly said that he'll basically go with whomever he feels like at the moment. That means that Ryan Wagner (who's been the topic of mucho mail) will probably get a few looks as well as Kent Mercker. None of these really have what it takes to be a closer (or in Wagner's case, at least not yet), so don't be surprised to see a lot of shifting and maneuvering in save situations. What'd I do if I were a fantasy owner (wait--I am) is just avoid the Reds bullpen altogether in terms of saves. I've made that recommendation before and I won't change it. Wagner's good for middle relief, but take any saves of his as dessert topping.
The Red Cross: Arms and More Arms
Paul Wilson is still coming back rather slowly from shoulder trouble, not that many owners miss him. There isn't a timetable, but his numbers are replaceable in any league. Luke Hudson got his first start of the year on Thursday and looked…not too hot, actually. He did go 6, but didn't fan a single batter, walked 4 and gave up 5 ER. Not anything you'd want your family to see, for sure. Josh Hancock fared even worse in his first rehab start in Louisville--4.1 IP, 10 ER. Sheesh. He followed that up with 5 IP, 4 ER. It could be a while before we see him again as well, but like Wilson, his numbers can be found anywhere (not that you'd look for numbers like that). Anderson Machado and Rey Olmedo will begin rehab stints soon, but with Lopez's play, they've got nowhere to contribute.
Nothing to Lose
I know the Reds are terrible, but I've got to say that for the first time since O'Brien became GM, I'm really starting to respect the moves that Danny Boy is making. I didn't really malign them before--I just wasn't that impressed. The Reds have nowhere to go but up and making the atypical move here and there (i.e. Graves, Jimenez, Kearns) can't do much to make it worse. A tip of the cap to O'Brien for not firing Miley yet too. This certainly isn't all his fault. Quick note--the last time Sean Casey struck out was May 22. And still people are surprised that he hits .324. With the G/F ratio at 1.9, we won't be seeing many HRs, but we could see .340. Here's something else--the Reds hit 17 HR in this 6-game homestand. Wow. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.
What went wrong? Kearns was a 1st round pick. How did he get from potential Rookie of the Year candidate in 2002 to the abysmal hitter he is today? Well, he stopped making contact, for one. Contact %--'01 (AA): 84, '02: 79, '03: 77, '04: 70, '05: 71. He also started pressing at the plate, abandoning patience. BB/K ratio: '02: 0.70, '03: 0.60, '04: 0.48, '05: 0.36. These are trends that are very disturbing. I realize he's been injured, but he doesn't have that excuse any more and he's also got much more experience now. His bat still has occasional power, but with the lack of hitting skills, he becomes a dime a dozen. I like Kearns (even though I've said the Reds should've traded him 2 years in a row), but he's got to make a readjustment to ever be a quality major leaguer.
Freed Wily
Now that Kearns is gone, Pena will play everyday in RF--as long as he can stay healthy. With the quad issue that kept him out a month and now a sore knee, that's apparently no small task. He teased us all again with his 2 HR game vs. TB, but it's at least nice to know that the PT issue is out of the way for the immediate future. I recommend Wily Mo highly for those in need of power. I don't think this .313 AVG will hold, but the fact that he hits the ball so incredibly hard does give him a better chance of reaching base. Right now Wily Mo is hitting a HR just about 1 in every 8 ABs. That's all-world. With good health, it will be interesting to see how he responds with no one pushing him from the bench. We may be close to the coronation of a new megapower slugger.
A Full Plate
What's very cool is that the Reds have only scored 4 runs less than St. Louis' 323, which leads the NL in production. They've scored more runs that 25 of MLB's 30 teams. With Dunn, Griffey, Lopez, Casey, Freel, and Randa all having solid years (and oh,yeah, Wily Mo's back), the bell chimes often when the Reds have the sticks in hand. Only the STL, BOS, BAL, and TEX have scored more. In 9 of the Reds' last 10 wins, they've scored at least 9 runs. It's a good time to have a Reds hitter. What's inherently depressing about this is that they're still in last place and only the Giants and Rockies have worse records in the NL. Only the Devil Rays and Rockies have surrendered more runs. This of course should lead to a discussion on the pitching, but I'm afraid I'd start crying.
Saves?
Since Graves went bye-bye, the Reds have only recorded 2 (both by David Weathers). DW looks to be the best bet for the role right now, although Miley has repeatedly said that he'll basically go with whomever he feels like at the moment. That means that Ryan Wagner (who's been the topic of mucho mail) will probably get a few looks as well as Kent Mercker. None of these really have what it takes to be a closer (or in Wagner's case, at least not yet), so don't be surprised to see a lot of shifting and maneuvering in save situations. What'd I do if I were a fantasy owner (wait--I am) is just avoid the Reds bullpen altogether in terms of saves. I've made that recommendation before and I won't change it. Wagner's good for middle relief, but take any saves of his as dessert topping.
The Red Cross: Arms and More Arms
Paul Wilson is still coming back rather slowly from shoulder trouble, not that many owners miss him. There isn't a timetable, but his numbers are replaceable in any league. Luke Hudson got his first start of the year on Thursday and looked…not too hot, actually. He did go 6, but didn't fan a single batter, walked 4 and gave up 5 ER. Not anything you'd want your family to see, for sure. Josh Hancock fared even worse in his first rehab start in Louisville--4.1 IP, 10 ER. Sheesh. He followed that up with 5 IP, 4 ER. It could be a while before we see him again as well, but like Wilson, his numbers can be found anywhere (not that you'd look for numbers like that). Anderson Machado and Rey Olmedo will begin rehab stints soon, but with Lopez's play, they've got nowhere to contribute.
Nothing to Lose
I know the Reds are terrible, but I've got to say that for the first time since O'Brien became GM, I'm really starting to respect the moves that Danny Boy is making. I didn't really malign them before--I just wasn't that impressed. The Reds have nowhere to go but up and making the atypical move here and there (i.e. Graves, Jimenez, Kearns) can't do much to make it worse. A tip of the cap to O'Brien for not firing Miley yet too. This certainly isn't all his fault. Quick note--the last time Sean Casey struck out was May 22. And still people are surprised that he hits .324. With the G/F ratio at 1.9, we won't be seeing many HRs, but we could see .340. Here's something else--the Reds hit 17 HR in this 6-game homestand. Wow. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.
