Wednesday, July 27, 2005
Changing of the Guard
Have you ever been to Arlington National Cemetery? If so, there is a tradition that takes place every half-hour while the cemetery is open for visitation (the half-hour schedule actually coincides with the regular MLB season; from October 1 to the end of March, the only change is at the top of the hour). Anyway, if you've been to Arlington, there's a good chance you've seen what the cemetery's official website calls an "elaborate ceremony". That description is wholly accurate, for while the witnessing the ritual is interesting, it's not exactly a barn-burner. (My opinion makes little difference, however, for I also learned that even were I in the military, I'm ineligible to be a guard of the Tomb of the Unknowns because I'm too short! Under 5'10" need not apply.)
What's all this grave talk have to do with fantasy baseball? Well, your Cincinnati Reds have been in the process of the Changing of the Guard in 2005. Barry Larkin, long time SS, is gone. The last Red to play over 100 games at 3B was Aaron Boone in 2002. Seven different Reds have played 2B this year alone. The infield solidarity of Boone, Larkin, Todd Walker, and Sean Casey of '02 seems a long time ago. So, the Reds IF has been in transition for a while now, but if the Reds have their way, the long Changing of the Guard that began with the trade of Aaron Boone to the Yanks will be over within a week and the Reds IF could be more solidified than ever. Right now we'll take a look at the new left side of the IF and who could at 2B if the Reds trade Rich Aurilia before the deadline.
3B: Edwin Encarnacion
EE has been one of the top prospects in the organization for a couple years now and the Reds have been looking to this call-up for about as long. With Joe Randa's exit to SD, it paves the way from Edwin to take over 3B permanently. Now, you may say, "Oh yeah, that's what they said when Brandon Larson arrived. I'll pass." And you should--for now, at least. EE figures to get fairly regular play, but at 22, he's still got some maturing to do. The good news for skeptics is that he has much better contact skills than Larson ever had. He's also got more power, more speed, and a better glove. Edwin could produce All-Star caliber numbers one day, but that day won't be anytime soon. He won't figure in the mix for '05, but if you're watching young 3B talent, definitely look here.
SS: Felipe Lopez
His name and talents are old news to fantasy owners by now, and in my last column, I even forecasted a possible decline in his breakout production. He is certainly struggling of late, hitting .158 in his last 5 games (3-19). The numbers sure make it look as if this could continue. He's fanned in 4 of his last 8 ABs, and his SLG has dropped 33 points since July 1 as a result of his .427 SLG in July, which is almost 100 points lower than his total for any of the first 3 months. Lopez certainly has power, talent, and a solid future--the 1st half of this season wasn't a fluke--but the window to deal him at the value he's attained this year is drawing shut fast. Of course, hanging onto him for his multi-position eligibility is not a bad idea--just remember that 3B won't be there next year.
2B: Ryan Freel?
This is the only speculation in the mix for now. The Reds would love to deal Rich Aurilia, according to the Dayton Daily News, possibly to the Dodgers (and Aurilia wouldn't mind it either saying, "I could help that team."). If so, Encarnacion could play everyday at 3B instead of splitting with Freel and Freel could play 2B full-time allowing an occasional start for Rey Olmedo when Freel spelled someone at another position. The likelihood of Aurilia being dealt increases when you consider his paltry 500K price tag. The Reds just have to find a taker and he'll most likely be doing the Randa shuffle toward the left coast. Then, fantasy favorite Freel will again have a clear shot to play every day--just as it should be.
The Red Cross: W
Don't expect to see Ryan Wagner anytime soon. He still hasn't been clear to throw at all, says the Cincinnati Post. Even when he is, it won't be off a mound and there's no guarantee he won't see some minor league rehab work, especially since the bullpen hasn't been absolutely tanking lately. The 6% mixed/19% NL owners will be waiting a little while longer. Ben Weber has been moving his way up the ladder. After pitching well in Class A Dayton, he appeared for AA Chattanooga Monday night and did well there also. While that's encouraging for Ben, keep in mind it's minor league hitting and also Butter Churn's 8.09 MLB ERA and 9 BB/8 K pre-injury before getting excited. Josh Hancock continues to rehab, but let's be honest, at this point, 2005 is most likely a wash for him.
Red Flags
Don't expect too many more weeks for Javier Valentin like the one he just had. However, don't be surprised if this career .237 hitter stays a lot closer to his '05 average of .283. He's walked 17 times to only 19 Ks. His contact % is as high as it's ever been as well, so the plate patience seems real. Ken Griffey Jr. is a less than a week away from completing his 2nd straight month of hitting .300 or better and his 3rd straight month with at least 6 HR. With a July OPS of 1.121, Junior deserves way more credit than he's getting (plus don't forget about his still-superior defense). Matt Belisle, Kent Mercker, and David Weathers have combined for a 3.16 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and a 2.8 K/BB in July. Now that's finally some relief. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.
What's all this grave talk have to do with fantasy baseball? Well, your Cincinnati Reds have been in the process of the Changing of the Guard in 2005. Barry Larkin, long time SS, is gone. The last Red to play over 100 games at 3B was Aaron Boone in 2002. Seven different Reds have played 2B this year alone. The infield solidarity of Boone, Larkin, Todd Walker, and Sean Casey of '02 seems a long time ago. So, the Reds IF has been in transition for a while now, but if the Reds have their way, the long Changing of the Guard that began with the trade of Aaron Boone to the Yanks will be over within a week and the Reds IF could be more solidified than ever. Right now we'll take a look at the new left side of the IF and who could at 2B if the Reds trade Rich Aurilia before the deadline.
3B: Edwin Encarnacion
EE has been one of the top prospects in the organization for a couple years now and the Reds have been looking to this call-up for about as long. With Joe Randa's exit to SD, it paves the way from Edwin to take over 3B permanently. Now, you may say, "Oh yeah, that's what they said when Brandon Larson arrived. I'll pass." And you should--for now, at least. EE figures to get fairly regular play, but at 22, he's still got some maturing to do. The good news for skeptics is that he has much better contact skills than Larson ever had. He's also got more power, more speed, and a better glove. Edwin could produce All-Star caliber numbers one day, but that day won't be anytime soon. He won't figure in the mix for '05, but if you're watching young 3B talent, definitely look here.
SS: Felipe Lopez
His name and talents are old news to fantasy owners by now, and in my last column, I even forecasted a possible decline in his breakout production. He is certainly struggling of late, hitting .158 in his last 5 games (3-19). The numbers sure make it look as if this could continue. He's fanned in 4 of his last 8 ABs, and his SLG has dropped 33 points since July 1 as a result of his .427 SLG in July, which is almost 100 points lower than his total for any of the first 3 months. Lopez certainly has power, talent, and a solid future--the 1st half of this season wasn't a fluke--but the window to deal him at the value he's attained this year is drawing shut fast. Of course, hanging onto him for his multi-position eligibility is not a bad idea--just remember that 3B won't be there next year.
2B: Ryan Freel?
This is the only speculation in the mix for now. The Reds would love to deal Rich Aurilia, according to the Dayton Daily News, possibly to the Dodgers (and Aurilia wouldn't mind it either saying, "I could help that team."). If so, Encarnacion could play everyday at 3B instead of splitting with Freel and Freel could play 2B full-time allowing an occasional start for Rey Olmedo when Freel spelled someone at another position. The likelihood of Aurilia being dealt increases when you consider his paltry 500K price tag. The Reds just have to find a taker and he'll most likely be doing the Randa shuffle toward the left coast. Then, fantasy favorite Freel will again have a clear shot to play every day--just as it should be.
The Red Cross: W
Don't expect to see Ryan Wagner anytime soon. He still hasn't been clear to throw at all, says the Cincinnati Post. Even when he is, it won't be off a mound and there's no guarantee he won't see some minor league rehab work, especially since the bullpen hasn't been absolutely tanking lately. The 6% mixed/19% NL owners will be waiting a little while longer. Ben Weber has been moving his way up the ladder. After pitching well in Class A Dayton, he appeared for AA Chattanooga Monday night and did well there also. While that's encouraging for Ben, keep in mind it's minor league hitting and also Butter Churn's 8.09 MLB ERA and 9 BB/8 K pre-injury before getting excited. Josh Hancock continues to rehab, but let's be honest, at this point, 2005 is most likely a wash for him.
Red Flags
Don't expect too many more weeks for Javier Valentin like the one he just had. However, don't be surprised if this career .237 hitter stays a lot closer to his '05 average of .283. He's walked 17 times to only 19 Ks. His contact % is as high as it's ever been as well, so the plate patience seems real. Ken Griffey Jr. is a less than a week away from completing his 2nd straight month of hitting .300 or better and his 3rd straight month with at least 6 HR. With a July OPS of 1.121, Junior deserves way more credit than he's getting (plus don't forget about his still-superior defense). Matt Belisle, Kent Mercker, and David Weathers have combined for a 3.16 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and a 2.8 K/BB in July. Now that's finally some relief. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.
