Thursday, July 21, 2005
Hats for Bats
With the trade deadline approaching, the only Reds that anyone has any interest in are the ones holding bats. It remains to be seen if guys like Wily Mo "Cerrano", Adam Dunn, Ken Griffey, Jr., Joe Randa, or Sean Casey will be wearing red and black on August 1, but the good news for NL owners is that it's likely that the ones that are dealt (which could be less that you might think) could very well stay in the NL. Griffey has been attached to 2 AL teams (New York, Chicago), but it's almost silly to think that anyone would take on his salary--and that's bypassing the silly notion that he'd even greenlight a trade (which he won't). Those of you gripping, worried about losing Dunn's bat to the AL should remain clenched for now, but I think you'll most likely be OK.
We're Better Than You Are!
Nah-nee-nah-nee-boo-boo! The Reds really have to enjoy playing the Colorado Rockies, which is clearly the only team that they can categorically state that they're better than. In the 3-game sweep, the Rox even made the Reds rotation look decent. Aaron Harang pitched a gem (which the bullpen again almost subsequently blew), Eric Milton looked better than terrible, and Ramon Ortiz put together a pretty good outing (6.1 IP, 8 H, 4 ER 6 K, 1 BB). The bats put together 20 runs, 8 bombs, and maybe most surprisingly, 15 walks while striking out 19 times (the Ks are still terrible, but the 15 BB actually showed a little patience). Sean Casey even mashed his 1st HR at home this year (finally). Don't expect more from Case yet--his G/F is still a very high 1.99.
The Red Cross: Freel on the Choo-Choo
Manager Jerry Narron told the Cincinnati Enquirer that he wanted Ryan Freel to get around 25 ABs in AA Chattanooga before activating him from the DL. After Tuesday night, he's up to 17 with 2 BBs (16 PA). If Narron's estimate holds, he'll probably be activated near the end of the week and certainly before the West Coast swing beginning Monday in LA. Freel owners do have to worry about Freel setting back in at 2B, which appears to be somewhat claimed by Aurilia. Freel will probably gain full time PT, though--at the very least, he can provide a day off for others around the diamond. Josh Hancock is still throwing bullpen sessions, preparing to return. As much trouble as he's had in game action at AAA, I wouldn't expect him to provide any relief from the Reds constant rotation woes.
F-Lo Headed Lower?
The idea in fantasy baseball is to trade surging players at the zenith of their production curve to maximize the results for your team. As your portfolio consultant, I must advise you to take a look at Felipe Lopez, especially those of you not in keeper leagues. His .288 average in July (while not terrible) does indicate (along with a .394 SLG) indicate that Lopez could've peaked for '05. Now, that isn't to say satisfactory production won't continue, but the level that Lopez customers have enjoyed thus far is more likely now to taper off. He's still one of the best SS in the NL this year, but heading down the stretch drive, his solid year could give you a window to deal him for an even bigger name in the immediate future. Not a wholesale recommendation, mind you--just a suggestion.
Slap On! Slap Off!
A .300 hitter is a boon for a fantasy team. They're few and far between for sure. Of those currently eligible for the batting title, only 28 currently exist in MLB. But a .300 hitter who has only 4 HR, whose SLG is .405 (and a even more meager .377 in July), and who plays a power position (1B) can be a little frustrating. Sean Casey, aka The Mayor, now aka The Slapper, is causing more than a few fantasy owners to scratch their heads. He will most likely hit over .300 for the season, but as we mentioned earlier, his power is totally absent for now. He's grounded into a MLB-leading 23 (!) double plays. I would venture to say he's had more 4-3 groundouts than anyone in baseball this year. Hitting .309, he offers little else and marks himself as a certified disapointment for '05.
Am I Really Typing This?
I just felt a shiver. Popped my fingers. Took a deep breath. OK. I've lamented over this Reds rotation all year (and they're awful, to be sure), but there's certain point where you have to look at the number and say, "It's gotta get better. It HAS to." Any it just may--a little. Looking at Eric Milton, the numbers appear to show a little improvement. He's had a little stretch of success since late June. In 4 starts, his ERA is 4.13 with 21 K and only 4 BB. Even more impressive, 2 HR in 24 IP! Now, I wouldn't say he's turned it around just yet, but he'd be easy to get in a good matchup and you may just want to consider it (another shiver). Luke Hudson also isn't great, but he isn't as bad as he's throwing either. You might watch for a favorable matchup there as well.
Fun With the Abacus
Even with names like Griffey, Dunn, Pena, and now Lopez in the lineup slugging, Joe Randa has the team lead in 2B with 24. Who says hitters see the ball better in day games? Felipe doesn't. He's hitting a mere .245 with 18 Ks in 98 day ABs. Maybe he needs his night light--'cause his night time average is .335. Don't let it get too late in a close night game, though. Felipe goes to bed early apparently, hitting .220 after the 7th inning in close games. Maybe it has something to do with the moon or the tides. David Weathers, who could have a foothold on the closer's spot for now, has fanned 8 in 7.1 IP in July. His K/9 for the year is now 6.8 and his K/BB is 2.25. That could keep him throwing in the 9th. Stay tuned. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.
We're Better Than You Are!
Nah-nee-nah-nee-boo-boo! The Reds really have to enjoy playing the Colorado Rockies, which is clearly the only team that they can categorically state that they're better than. In the 3-game sweep, the Rox even made the Reds rotation look decent. Aaron Harang pitched a gem (which the bullpen again almost subsequently blew), Eric Milton looked better than terrible, and Ramon Ortiz put together a pretty good outing (6.1 IP, 8 H, 4 ER 6 K, 1 BB). The bats put together 20 runs, 8 bombs, and maybe most surprisingly, 15 walks while striking out 19 times (the Ks are still terrible, but the 15 BB actually showed a little patience). Sean Casey even mashed his 1st HR at home this year (finally). Don't expect more from Case yet--his G/F is still a very high 1.99.
The Red Cross: Freel on the Choo-Choo
Manager Jerry Narron told the Cincinnati Enquirer that he wanted Ryan Freel to get around 25 ABs in AA Chattanooga before activating him from the DL. After Tuesday night, he's up to 17 with 2 BBs (16 PA). If Narron's estimate holds, he'll probably be activated near the end of the week and certainly before the West Coast swing beginning Monday in LA. Freel owners do have to worry about Freel setting back in at 2B, which appears to be somewhat claimed by Aurilia. Freel will probably gain full time PT, though--at the very least, he can provide a day off for others around the diamond. Josh Hancock is still throwing bullpen sessions, preparing to return. As much trouble as he's had in game action at AAA, I wouldn't expect him to provide any relief from the Reds constant rotation woes.
F-Lo Headed Lower?
The idea in fantasy baseball is to trade surging players at the zenith of their production curve to maximize the results for your team. As your portfolio consultant, I must advise you to take a look at Felipe Lopez, especially those of you not in keeper leagues. His .288 average in July (while not terrible) does indicate (along with a .394 SLG) indicate that Lopez could've peaked for '05. Now, that isn't to say satisfactory production won't continue, but the level that Lopez customers have enjoyed thus far is more likely now to taper off. He's still one of the best SS in the NL this year, but heading down the stretch drive, his solid year could give you a window to deal him for an even bigger name in the immediate future. Not a wholesale recommendation, mind you--just a suggestion.
Slap On! Slap Off!
A .300 hitter is a boon for a fantasy team. They're few and far between for sure. Of those currently eligible for the batting title, only 28 currently exist in MLB. But a .300 hitter who has only 4 HR, whose SLG is .405 (and a even more meager .377 in July), and who plays a power position (1B) can be a little frustrating. Sean Casey, aka The Mayor, now aka The Slapper, is causing more than a few fantasy owners to scratch their heads. He will most likely hit over .300 for the season, but as we mentioned earlier, his power is totally absent for now. He's grounded into a MLB-leading 23 (!) double plays. I would venture to say he's had more 4-3 groundouts than anyone in baseball this year. Hitting .309, he offers little else and marks himself as a certified disapointment for '05.
Am I Really Typing This?
I just felt a shiver. Popped my fingers. Took a deep breath. OK. I've lamented over this Reds rotation all year (and they're awful, to be sure), but there's certain point where you have to look at the number and say, "It's gotta get better. It HAS to." Any it just may--a little. Looking at Eric Milton, the numbers appear to show a little improvement. He's had a little stretch of success since late June. In 4 starts, his ERA is 4.13 with 21 K and only 4 BB. Even more impressive, 2 HR in 24 IP! Now, I wouldn't say he's turned it around just yet, but he'd be easy to get in a good matchup and you may just want to consider it (another shiver). Luke Hudson also isn't great, but he isn't as bad as he's throwing either. You might watch for a favorable matchup there as well.
Fun With the Abacus
Even with names like Griffey, Dunn, Pena, and now Lopez in the lineup slugging, Joe Randa has the team lead in 2B with 24. Who says hitters see the ball better in day games? Felipe doesn't. He's hitting a mere .245 with 18 Ks in 98 day ABs. Maybe he needs his night light--'cause his night time average is .335. Don't let it get too late in a close night game, though. Felipe goes to bed early apparently, hitting .220 after the 7th inning in close games. Maybe it has something to do with the moon or the tides. David Weathers, who could have a foothold on the closer's spot for now, has fanned 8 in 7.1 IP in July. His K/9 for the year is now 6.8 and his K/BB is 2.25. That could keep him throwing in the 9th. Stay tuned. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.
