Wednesday, August 24, 2005
Has Anything Changed?
It's been a while since we checked in with the Reds--the dogs days of summer and a mysterious late-July-early-August cold combining with other miscellany to keep me away from my keyboard. Has anything changed significantly? Well, the Reds have put together a 23-14 second half thus far, and while they're still in 5th place in the NL Central, they've climbed within 3.5 games of 3rd, as the Brewers and Cubs both have struggled enough to bring them closer to the bottom of the division than the top. The Reds still score a lot of runs (652 leads the NL), but the pitching is as bad and in some cases worse than it was earlier in the year. The numbers look so bad now that only 5 Reds pitchers who have thrown 20+ IP have an ERA under 5.00. There's very little else to say about the hurlers.
Salt on the Wounds
Of course, you didn't actually expect me to stop there, did you? While the Reds lead the NL in runs scored, they also lead the league in runs allowed (692). The interesting thing here is that most readers tell me, "If only we could get some pitching. We score enough runs to win." Well, the facts bear that out is a sad, but true way. If you were to take the Reds runs allowed total and reduce it down to the next highest total in the NL Central (594 for last place Pittsburgh), the baseball Pythagorean theorem put forth by Bill James says that the Reds have scored enough runs to produce a record that would be leading the wild card. Sure, that's all theory and speculation, but that formula does at least show what a huge difference 98 runs makes.
Back to the Bats
There are plenty of bats to target on the roster as the season hits the stretch run. Four Reds are currently slugging at least .540 and the lineup has more HRs in August (30) than any other NL team. The home ballpark helps, of course, but Griffey, Dunn, and even Kearns are all smashing the ball. Edwin Encarnacion has taken 4 deep since August 1. Sean Casey, Rich Aurilia, and Griff are all hitting above .345. Even wild-swinging Wily Mo Pena is having a good month. One thing about the offensive proliferation though. Let's make it clear that while the Reds are hitting for solid power and they're getting on base (.352 OBP for August), these are still the same Reds who made sure that Javier Vazquez needed only 77 pitches in 8 IP on Saturday. The AVG in August is only. 266.
The Kid and the Kid
If I told you that over a 3-week stretch the Reds had two batters, one who had 4 BB and 16 K, and the other who had 7 BB and 7 K, and I told you that one of them was named Griffey and the other Pena, how would you match them up? Logically, you'd put Wily Mo with the 4/16 BB/K. You'd be wrong. So, while Griffey is loading up this month and has raised his season average to .294, don't get too excited thinking that Kenny has found the magic of old and will soon be posting a high AVG with the high HR just like the good ol' days. Like Wily Mo's sudden bursts of power (6 RBI on Sunday), this too shall pass. Granted, he's hitting the ball with enough authority to find any open gap--he just has to remember that even All-Century players have to show some patience for long-term success.
Wha' Happened?
A mighty wind sure was blowing out of my yapper this March when I predicted that Casey could likely hit career highs in most, if not all, fantasy categories. It also looks kinda bad when Casey is resting at 16th for MLB 1B on the Player Rater, and I lauded him as a potential top-5 candidate. My only hope for Casey to make a new career high is in AVG. He's pounded out a .382 average in August, he's making contact at over 90%, and he's finally hitting the ball with some authority, parking 3 in the seats this month. He's lowered his G/F ratio from 2.00 to 1.76, which still won't net him a bushel of home runs, but it beats 24 ground ball double plays. SC shouldn't have any trouble finishing with a dozen HRs and an average close to .325 or even .330. Not top 5, but still viable.
The Red Cross: Nowhere to Run
Ryan Freel may have nowhere to go once he's ready to begin playing again with the minor league season coming to a close soon. When he does return, he'll likely have to step gingerly back into everyday play, especially with the August Aurilia is having. Ray Olmedo will also be a factor with Freel's PT as well. The good news, as always with Freel, is that hopefully manager Jerry Narron can use him and different spots on the diamond to make sure he gets a regular amount of PT upon his return. Down at AAA, Josh Hancock continues to nurse a sore elbow after being out all season with a groin injury. Bottom line--you shouldn't be counting on him anyway.
Click Your Heels 13 Times
The Reds start their longest road trip in years in the nation's capital. Pittsburgh, Houston, and Atlanta follow that--remember the Astros have great pitching, but they can't score. If you could get the Astros staff with the Reds lineup, you'd certainly be giving St. Louis plenty to think about. It's crazy 8s as Ortiz, Claussen, and Harang are now all tied for the team lead in wins with 2 shy of double digits. Harang's BBs are down, but so are his Ks--he should still finish strong. Brandon Claussen will be one to watch in case of good matchups. His last 5 starts have been pretty impressive. When he stays out of trouble with BBs, he's a solid pitcher. He's still just 26, so chalk this year up to experience for him. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.
Salt on the Wounds
Of course, you didn't actually expect me to stop there, did you? While the Reds lead the NL in runs scored, they also lead the league in runs allowed (692). The interesting thing here is that most readers tell me, "If only we could get some pitching. We score enough runs to win." Well, the facts bear that out is a sad, but true way. If you were to take the Reds runs allowed total and reduce it down to the next highest total in the NL Central (594 for last place Pittsburgh), the baseball Pythagorean theorem put forth by Bill James says that the Reds have scored enough runs to produce a record that would be leading the wild card. Sure, that's all theory and speculation, but that formula does at least show what a huge difference 98 runs makes.
Back to the Bats
There are plenty of bats to target on the roster as the season hits the stretch run. Four Reds are currently slugging at least .540 and the lineup has more HRs in August (30) than any other NL team. The home ballpark helps, of course, but Griffey, Dunn, and even Kearns are all smashing the ball. Edwin Encarnacion has taken 4 deep since August 1. Sean Casey, Rich Aurilia, and Griff are all hitting above .345. Even wild-swinging Wily Mo Pena is having a good month. One thing about the offensive proliferation though. Let's make it clear that while the Reds are hitting for solid power and they're getting on base (.352 OBP for August), these are still the same Reds who made sure that Javier Vazquez needed only 77 pitches in 8 IP on Saturday. The AVG in August is only. 266.
The Kid and the Kid
If I told you that over a 3-week stretch the Reds had two batters, one who had 4 BB and 16 K, and the other who had 7 BB and 7 K, and I told you that one of them was named Griffey and the other Pena, how would you match them up? Logically, you'd put Wily Mo with the 4/16 BB/K. You'd be wrong. So, while Griffey is loading up this month and has raised his season average to .294, don't get too excited thinking that Kenny has found the magic of old and will soon be posting a high AVG with the high HR just like the good ol' days. Like Wily Mo's sudden bursts of power (6 RBI on Sunday), this too shall pass. Granted, he's hitting the ball with enough authority to find any open gap--he just has to remember that even All-Century players have to show some patience for long-term success.
Wha' Happened?
A mighty wind sure was blowing out of my yapper this March when I predicted that Casey could likely hit career highs in most, if not all, fantasy categories. It also looks kinda bad when Casey is resting at 16th for MLB 1B on the Player Rater, and I lauded him as a potential top-5 candidate. My only hope for Casey to make a new career high is in AVG. He's pounded out a .382 average in August, he's making contact at over 90%, and he's finally hitting the ball with some authority, parking 3 in the seats this month. He's lowered his G/F ratio from 2.00 to 1.76, which still won't net him a bushel of home runs, but it beats 24 ground ball double plays. SC shouldn't have any trouble finishing with a dozen HRs and an average close to .325 or even .330. Not top 5, but still viable.
The Red Cross: Nowhere to Run
Ryan Freel may have nowhere to go once he's ready to begin playing again with the minor league season coming to a close soon. When he does return, he'll likely have to step gingerly back into everyday play, especially with the August Aurilia is having. Ray Olmedo will also be a factor with Freel's PT as well. The good news, as always with Freel, is that hopefully manager Jerry Narron can use him and different spots on the diamond to make sure he gets a regular amount of PT upon his return. Down at AAA, Josh Hancock continues to nurse a sore elbow after being out all season with a groin injury. Bottom line--you shouldn't be counting on him anyway.
Click Your Heels 13 Times
The Reds start their longest road trip in years in the nation's capital. Pittsburgh, Houston, and Atlanta follow that--remember the Astros have great pitching, but they can't score. If you could get the Astros staff with the Reds lineup, you'd certainly be giving St. Louis plenty to think about. It's crazy 8s as Ortiz, Claussen, and Harang are now all tied for the team lead in wins with 2 shy of double digits. Harang's BBs are down, but so are his Ks--he should still finish strong. Brandon Claussen will be one to watch in case of good matchups. His last 5 starts have been pretty impressive. When he stays out of trouble with BBs, he's a solid pitcher. He's still just 26, so chalk this year up to experience for him. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.
