Tuesday, March 27, 2007
POOF! Just Like That
Just as we were getting back into the swing of things, ESPN has decided to discontinue the FLB Correspondents for 2007. Interesting...
Regardless, blogging for me will continue with the new blog for my radio show on TalkRadio 1080 WKJK, The Sports Forum.
Reds coverage won't be the only thing there, but the Reds will be covered extensively. Head on over and make yourself at home at The Sports Forum.
And thanks to all the readers of The Red Letters!
Regardless, blogging for me will continue with the new blog for my radio show on TalkRadio 1080 WKJK, The Sports Forum.
Reds coverage won't be the only thing there, but the Reds will be covered extensively. Head on over and make yourself at home at The Sports Forum.
And thanks to all the readers of The Red Letters!
Friday, March 23, 2007
Don't Cry For Homer Bailey
If Axl, Slash, and the rest will allow me the indulgence…Sometimes, I get so tense
But I can't speed up the time
I would say there's more than a few Reds fans who feel this way about the arrival of Homer Bailey to the Great American clubhouse after having a starting rotation near the bottom of the National League for years now, but I would offer the following lyrics as a response
And a 1-2-3-4…
I would say there's more than a few Reds fans who feel this way about the arrival of Homer Bailey to the Great American clubhouse after having a starting rotation near the bottom of the National League for years now, but I would offer the following lyrics as a response
And a 1-2-3-4…
But you know, love, there's one more thing to consider
Said woman take it slow
Things will be just fine
You and I'll just use a little patience
2006
2006
A Sarasota: 3-5, 3.31 ERA, 70.2 IP, 79 K, 22 BB, 6 HR
AA Chattanooga: 7-1, 1.59 ERA, 68 IP, 77 K, 28 BB, 1 HR (!)
I agree. Those are alluring statistics. Overwhelming. On top of that, Homer Bailey seems to be a pretty nice guy. I had the opportunity to talk with him for a little bit before spring training, and I was pleased with his attitude and outlook for this season. Marty Brennaman was on my radio show and called him the best pitching prospect he's seen in his over 3 decades of Reds baseball. That's high praise (and even higher expectations). If Marty didn't think that, I think we all know he wouldn't say it.
Still, I was honestly encouraged by the news that Homer Bailey has been reassigned to minor league camp last week. It's a good thing. Really.
I know what you're thinking--wait a minute, the Reds would be better off with Matt Belisle, Kirk Saarloos, or Elizardo Ramirez in the rotation than one of the best prospects in baseball?
The answer is yes. In 2007, yes, clearly, they would. And this has nothing to do with the fact that Bailey was carrying around a 19.64 ERA this spring.
Terry Linhart did some excellent for Baseball HQ (which if you've read this blog over the last almost 3 years, you know I know BBHQ in high regard) that shows the success rates of pitchers in the majors related to their experience in AAA.
And I'm sure most of you know that despite those excellent stats by Bailey in 2006, he's got a grand total of zero innings experience at AAA.
Linhart's numbers looked like this as it relates to pitchers:
Less than 1 year
16% performed well
77% performed poorly
6% endured 2nd half drop off
Full Year (at least)
56% performed well
33% performed poorly
10% endured 2nd half drop off
Rookies are going to hit the wall. It happens. Ask Justin Verlander. But it's amazing that with 1 year of AAA experience the percentage of prospect who performed well shoots from only 16 to better than 50. Even more amazing to me is the insurance against losing confidence by getting knocked around the yard all day, evidenced by chances of failure going from 3 in 4 to only 1 in 3.
When you add in the fact Bailey is 2 years ahead of the normal development curve, it adds up to a clear sum. Bailey will greatly benefit from being and pitching in Louisville in all of 2007. (That, also, has nothing to do with the fact that I live in Louisville--but I will enjoy seeing him up close this season).
As I type this, I know that we'll probably see Homer in GABP at some point this year. I'm always amazed at the "win now" philosophy of just about every sports franchise, regardless of future results (which, hey, it is, first and foremost, a business, so that does make sense).
But I would ask you, Wayne Krivsky, Bob Castellini, and even myself to all just whistle when a back-end rotation guy gives up 8 ER in 4 IP this May (and it will probably happen) and remember Axl--
You and I'll just use a little patience
AA Chattanooga: 7-1, 1.59 ERA, 68 IP, 77 K, 28 BB, 1 HR (!)
I agree. Those are alluring statistics. Overwhelming. On top of that, Homer Bailey seems to be a pretty nice guy. I had the opportunity to talk with him for a little bit before spring training, and I was pleased with his attitude and outlook for this season. Marty Brennaman was on my radio show and called him the best pitching prospect he's seen in his over 3 decades of Reds baseball. That's high praise (and even higher expectations). If Marty didn't think that, I think we all know he wouldn't say it.
Still, I was honestly encouraged by the news that Homer Bailey has been reassigned to minor league camp last week. It's a good thing. Really.
I know what you're thinking--wait a minute, the Reds would be better off with Matt Belisle, Kirk Saarloos, or Elizardo Ramirez in the rotation than one of the best prospects in baseball?
The answer is yes. In 2007, yes, clearly, they would. And this has nothing to do with the fact that Bailey was carrying around a 19.64 ERA this spring.
Terry Linhart did some excellent for Baseball HQ (which if you've read this blog over the last almost 3 years, you know I know BBHQ in high regard) that shows the success rates of pitchers in the majors related to their experience in AAA.
And I'm sure most of you know that despite those excellent stats by Bailey in 2006, he's got a grand total of zero innings experience at AAA.
Linhart's numbers looked like this as it relates to pitchers:
Less than 1 year
16% performed well
77% performed poorly
6% endured 2nd half drop off
Full Year (at least)
56% performed well
33% performed poorly
10% endured 2nd half drop off
Rookies are going to hit the wall. It happens. Ask Justin Verlander. But it's amazing that with 1 year of AAA experience the percentage of prospect who performed well shoots from only 16 to better than 50. Even more amazing to me is the insurance against losing confidence by getting knocked around the yard all day, evidenced by chances of failure going from 3 in 4 to only 1 in 3.
When you add in the fact Bailey is 2 years ahead of the normal development curve, it adds up to a clear sum. Bailey will greatly benefit from being and pitching in Louisville in all of 2007. (That, also, has nothing to do with the fact that I live in Louisville--but I will enjoy seeing him up close this season).
As I type this, I know that we'll probably see Homer in GABP at some point this year. I'm always amazed at the "win now" philosophy of just about every sports franchise, regardless of future results (which, hey, it is, first and foremost, a business, so that does make sense).
But I would ask you, Wayne Krivsky, Bob Castellini, and even myself to all just whistle when a back-end rotation guy gives up 8 ER in 4 IP this May (and it will probably happen) and remember Axl--
You and I'll just use a little patience
Said sugar take the time'
Cause the lights are shining bright
You and I've got what it takes to make it....
...yeah, ooh yeah, Need a little patience, yeah
Just a little patience, yeah...
But next year? I really want to see Homer Knockin' On Heaven's Door and this November Rain should be the last he sees from Louisville.
But next year? I really want to see Homer Knockin' On Heaven's Door and this November Rain should be the last he sees from Louisville.
Tuesday, March 20, 2007
Streeeeeeeeeeeetch!
Wow, I’m reporting late for Spring Training this year, aren’t I?
The good news is that it’s impossible to be docked any money if no one has your name on the payroll.
Lots of things to cover before the season begins this year, so we’ll adjust our Season Preview down to 2 categories--Hitters and Pitchers. Additionally, we'll deal strictly with impact players because that's who you want to read about and because I'm not sure now is the time to devote a lot of copy room to the ins and outs of Tom Shearn.
Next, we'll start keeping abreast of camp news and I'll tell you why it's a very good thing that Homer Bailey will not be starting the year in Cincinnati and it has absolutely nothing to with his 19.64 spring ERA.
My fingers are already cramping from the over-rested offseason, so I'm gonna have to hit the showers.
13 days and counting…
Lots of things to cover before the season begins this year, so we’ll adjust our Season Preview down to 2 categories--Hitters and Pitchers. Additionally, we'll deal strictly with impact players because that's who you want to read about and because I'm not sure now is the time to devote a lot of copy room to the ins and outs of Tom Shearn.
Next, we'll start keeping abreast of camp news and I'll tell you why it's a very good thing that Homer Bailey will not be starting the year in Cincinnati and it has absolutely nothing to with his 19.64 spring ERA.
My fingers are already cramping from the over-rested offseason, so I'm gonna have to hit the showers.
13 days and counting…
