The Red Letters

"Tuesday's Gone" and all eyes are on the "new look" (again) Reds because the boys are back in town (that town being Sarasota). If you know anything about spring training thus far, it's probably that despite the additions of Eric Milton and Ramon Ortiz to the rotation, the Reds still badly need an ace. You may also know that despite professing (yet again) that he's as healthy as ever, Ken Griffey still needs to prove it with 120+ games. And also you may know, that despite the always changing fashion trends of those in the public eye where "hot" is "not" only five minutes later, Austin Kearns still badly needs a haircut. Kearns and Griffey aside, let's look at some of the new Reds--and see if they'll be of any use.

Eric Milton: 3yr/25.5M

Most of the malaise that echoes in the halls of Great American, over the Ohio, and out into the world concerning the Reds in, I don't know, the last two decades usually has a lot to do with the Reds starting rotation. The last time the Reds had a 20-game winner was 1988. Bobby McFerrin's "Don't Worry Be Happy" was a hot song that year. The Reds have had only 4 pitchers who've won more than 15 games (including Jackson and Browning in '88) since. Even the World Championship season in '90, Browning led the team in wins with just 15. So, to the point, Milton is the linchpin in this year's edition of "Revamping the Rotation" which has worked a grand total of zero times so far, regardless of Bowden or O'Brien at the helm. So--will Milton be any different?

The answer is 2 letters, the last two in his last name, just switched around. N and O. A longer answer might be that of all the pitchers who were eligible for the ERA title in '04 (162 IP+), Milton had the lowest groundball/flyball ratio (0.58) or all. That's right. Eric Milton, who surrendered 43 HR last year, most in the NL. Eric Milton, who will be pitching in yet another launchpad this season at Great American. This wasn't a fluke either--he's been a flyball guy his entire career. Yes, his K/9 is good, but his BB/9 was its highest in the last 5 years. If there's one thing the Reds don't need, it's a starter with control problems. Ask Bob Boone. Jack McKeon. Ray Knight. And on and on. Milton may be the "ace", but GABP will play trump to that as long as he's a Red.

Ramon Ortiz: 1yr/3.55M

I had a nickname for Ortiz last year covering the Angels. It was "Meat Machine." That was after an April 9.28 ERA and .417 BAA. After 5 starts, the Angels decided to stop him before he caught up with McDonald's and their "1 billion served" sign. For 3 months out of the bullpen, with only occasional starting work, Ortiz posted ERAs of 1.69, 1.16, and 2.92. Then, in August, just where you thought it was safe to get back in the water, they reinserted RO into the rotation and WHAM-O!--5.84 ERA with a .331 BAA. Back in the bullpen in September the numbers decreased again. So, just in case you're scoring at home, that's starter ERA 5.47, bullpen ERA 2.76. Yet he's back in a rotation. In a fly ball park. Yet another flyball pitcher. This oughta work out just fine.

Joe Randa: 1yr/2.15M

The Kearns experiment at 3B was obviously over last December when the Reds signed Randa to man the hot corner. And, boy, doe he have the perfect first name for his talent ability right now. He's almost perfectly average. The average MLB BA? .270. Joe in '04? .287. Okay, little above. Average NL OBP? .338. Joe? .343. Above again, but by a hair. Average NL SLG? .439. Joe? .408. Below, and not by a little. So, look at that, it just about averages out--except in 1 crucial area. Median salary for the Reds in '04? $425K. Joe in '05? 2.15M. Not average. Excuse me, while I read the script of my Joe Randa fantasy commercial--"If you're looking for that spectacularly average 3B for your roster in '05, then give a hand-a to Randa!" Corny, yes, but true just the same.

Captain Refuses to Go Down With Another Ship

Salute Barry Larkin. Now. Get up out of your chair and salute him. With RoidGate over all the news, little attention is being paid to the retirement of the greatest Reds SS ever run out of town. Barry would've returned for a reasonable price after his All-Star '04 season, but the Reds wanted to go younger. Machado ends up hurt, and the Reds sign 33-year-old legend Rich Aurilia. He'll battle Felipe Lopez an his .235 lifetime average for SS this season. Nothing like a good personnel decision for the home team, huh? Commend Barry on retiring, being able to say that he played all his games for the same team and left an indelible mark on the Queen City, but shame on the Reds for forcing him out the door just like radio broadcast legend Joe Nuxhall. Tip of the cap, Barry.

Kent Mercker: 2yr/2.6M

The bad news is that Kent Mercker is probably at best a last-round or two pick for your fantasy roster. The good news is that he's a pretty good pick in that spot. Mercker has had success with the Reds and at GABP, posting a 2.35 ERA there in '03. His K/9 last year was also the highest it's been this decade. Righties hit only .170 against this southpaw last year and that number's not inflated because he only faced a handful and did well. 49.4% of his Abs were against righties, almost split down the middle. LHBs only hit .240 as well, so the news is pretty good there too. Possibly the best thing for Mercker is that in a subpar bullpen which the Reds seem to have, Miley will most likely rely a little heavier on him than has been the case in his past. He won't astound, but you could do worse in your last reliever spot than Kent.

David Weathers: 1yr/1.35M

First off, bad move. Weathers is declining in performance and righties hit .294 against him last season. That's a figure that has increase each year since 2001. That's not good. Also, here's a guy who actually does a pretty decent job at keeping the ball on the ground (1.5 G/F), yet he gave up 1.3 HR/9 last year (average for NL pitchers was 1.1). What's that mean? He's throwing a lot of very crushable pitches when he doesn’t keep it down. Unless his K/9 rises again from 6.7 (which honestly it could) or his BB/9 get below the NL average (3.4; Weathers was at 3.8 last year and that's pretty typical for him, so the K's are a better bet), then you can predict some bad weather ahead for Weathers.

Ben Weber: 1yr/1.25M

Specs McGee here ougtha be dancing in the streets that he was able to find work after he was dismissed from the Angels minor league team. The Reds are usually not shy about picking up other team's garbage though, and that's the case again with Weber. Is this a prince in frog's skin? Tough to say, but I doubt it. He looked absolutely awful last year in Anaheim, not able to string any kind of good run together. On the bright side, his numbers are so grossly aberrant from his stats the previous three years that it's possible that '04 was a fluke. On the darker side, it's easier to be crappy than good, and his numbers weren't massively impressive was he was getting the job done. Very acceptable, but not impressive. Also, he's 35 and a soft tosser. That's never good from a stopper-type out of the pen. It doesn't matter how much he huffs and puffs and pumps his arms, his time for Major League effectiveness may be over, which means another seven-figure salary completely wasted.

Dogs With New Homes

Juan Castro (MIN), John Riedling (FLA), Phil Norton (HOU), Darren Bragg (CLE), Todd Van Poppel (NYM) and Gabe White (ATL) are all gone from Cincinnati and even though the Reds haven't signed any surefire players to fill their spots, it says a lot (maybe too much) that it doesn't really seem like they'll be missed. Good luck guys.

Dog Without a New Home

DJ Mattox was non-tendered and remains unsigned. Via con Dios, DJ.