Tuesday, August 10, 2004
Lidle For Who?
Give 'em time. The front office wasn't ready to dump anyone by the July 31st deadline, but Dan O'Brien & Co. made a deal today that sent Cory Lidle to the Phillies for two Low-A prospects from the Lakewood Blueclaws named Javon Morgan and Joe Wilson. Oh, and don't forget the extra "Player-to-Be-Named-Later" as well. Now, don't get me wrong--I'm not against the deal in principle. The word was Lidle had no intention of resigning next year and the idea now that the Reds are basically not going to the playoffs would be to get something for him. I get it. Two Low-A prospects though? Yes, I know Lidle's ERA is 5.32 and his WHIP is 1.44, but his K/BB is 2.1 and he's had 3 CGs this season. Lidle's K/BB has only been under 2 one time in his career--last year.
It seems that the Reds should have been able to get more. What did they get? Well, there's certainly at least some potential there. For all the weight that A ball stats carry (a very nice way to say basically no weight at all), Moran has 41 SB in the South Atlantic League this year, which is 4th in the league. Looking at his stats reminds me of an undeveloped Ryan Freel. Only Freel can play anywhere. Do the Reds need another young OF right now? Wilson looks to be a little less impressive--at least so far. The only stat that was eye-catching from Lakewood was his ability to keep the ball in the park (0.2 HR/9). But, he's a lefty and O'Brien says maybe he could start one day. Maybe I could too. I'll let you know what Danny Boy says. Deal grade from the first glance for CIN: C.
Acevedo Needs Relief; Goes to Pen Himself
The Reds moved Jose Acevedo to the pen on a conditional basis to try the 4-man rotation for now. JA will start when the days off won't allow for the others to get normal rest, but will otherwise pitch in relief. The question after today's deal is--who's that 4th starter? It could turn out that Acevedo is back in the rotation before he knows it. For now, the Reds will fill Lidle's spot with Josh Hancock. It's easy to understand the Acevedo move though. Jose's ERA in July was 9.67. Items of note: what was sour was his control. BB total April-June: 18. BB total July: 18. His HRs, which were a huge problem earlier, actually went down. It was still 4 in 6 starts, but for Jose even that was improvement. I stand by my many endorsements of him. He'll come around.
Reds and the Red Cross
Griffey is supposed to start on Tuesday against the Dodgers. As I said before, he has a history of easing back into the lineup once activated and this time will be no different. I wouldn't start him until he plays back-to-back days. Larkin still hasn't started since July 24. Both he and Junior got treatment on Monday and Barry hopes to see his name in the starting lineup as well Tuesday. Barry's days of playing regularly are probably over, but if you're strapped at SS, he has played well when he's been in there. Finally, Kearns has taken the last two nights off for the AAA Bats but he's gone 6-16 with 6 R and 2 RBI thus far in his rehab assignment. He'll be ready to go when he comes back in about a week. Will he play every day? It's not a lock, that's for sure.
Cooling Off?
Has Mr. Pena, who dropped from being hot property (93% owned) to this week's 61%, cooled off as much as his ESPN fantasy leaguers suggest? Not exactly. His contact % in August is still awful (62%), but his SLG is .528 and OPS is .854. To expect some slumps when his BB/K is 0.22 is wise, especially when combined with his contact %, but he's also capable of having 5 RBI days like he did on Sunday. Wily Mo is high-risk, high-reward right now. It would be silly to suggest that a player with 429 career ABs could keep up the pace he was setting, so what might be considered a little lull now could be an opportunity for you to pick him up. Like I said, it is quite the risk, but for a guy who could be an every day player next year at 23, it might be worth the roster spot in a keeper.
The Save: A Fickle, Fickle Statistic
Danny Graves had 33 saves at the All-Star Break and a lot of voices were calling for the engraver of the MLB record book to get ready to stencil in Graves' name above Bobby Thigpen for the most saves in a single season (Thigpen had 57 in 1990). In the 2nd half, Graves has had 3 save opportunities. That's it. He had a save op in 45% of games in the first-half and now he's only had them in 13% in the second half. Yeah, the Reds are losing more, so save ops will go down, but overall success has little to do with getting them. Proof? The top five teams in save opportunities this year? Reds, Marlins, Yankees, Giants, Brewers. That's 4th, 3rd, 1st, 3rd, and 5th in their divisions. Get the point? It's a crapshoot. Drafting a closer in the first 10 rounds of any draft may be foolish.
Fun With Numbers
The Reds are 27th (.220) in MLB in AVG with runners in scoring position and two outs. Only SF, MIN, and MIL are worse. Reds' leadoff hitters are hitting .249 this season but at least their OBP is .367. The 2 hole has an OBP of .302 though--not exactly setting up the heart of the order. The Reds are hitting .244 against the NL Central, which they're up against in 33 of their final 51 games. Their record against the Central? 25-32. They're above .500 against the other two divisions. The Reds are 2-11 against the Redbirds in '04, but then no one plays the Cards well. Adam Dunn has had 112 chances to hit into a DP and has only done so 3 times. Impressive. Of course, his G/F is 0.56. That helps. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to The Red Letters.
Wednesday, August 04, 2004
Slip Slidin' Away
The Cincinnati Reds have become the definition of the bright star that burns out much too quickly. Either that or the boat that knows it will sink, but just pitches the water out by bucket as long as physically possible until the inevitable comes to pass. What in the world do I mean? In 2002, the Reds finished June 43-37 in first place. They ended up 78-84. Last year, after June they stood in second, despite a 38-42 record. They finished a game out of last at 69-93. This year, June 30 found the Reds at 42-35. So, following the pattern, what do they follow up with? 9-19 since. Since the beginning of '02, they're 9 games over .500 in the first 3 months, and 42 games under .500 in the last three. The Reds are turning into perennial pretenders and the slip slidin' is on again.
Here Comes Wily Mo
Look at this line. July: .269, 9 HR, 19 RBI, .591 SLG, .938 OPS. This is what Wily Mo can produce with a full-time opportunity and the Reds are gonna be faced with a real decision now that they have a sense whether Wily Mo can play once and for all. What you might be asking is--Is this past month for real? I say yes. Wily Mo did strike out 23 times as only walked 8, but even that paltry K/BB ratio was the best he'd shown all year. The key word is improvement. Also, his contact percentage went way up. Before July, it was 64%. It went up 10% in July to 74%, which is getting close to what would is considered at least acceptable. Again--improvement. That .269 doesn't look astonishing, especially considering his history, but he did it with a 26% hit rate. That's called bad luck.
Battin' With the Bats
Austin Kearns began his minor league rehab with the AAA Louisville Bats on Tuesday night. He went 1-4 with 2 K. It would seem that Kearns is most likely about a week or so from being ready to try his hand (literally) in the majors again. I speculated before that the Reds will take their time with Kearns, considering the way Pena has been playing. Speaking of the Bats, it appears that Brandon Larson took a step back from his likely pending rehab assignment. He aggravated his hamstring injury Sunday when running, according to the team website. Larson has shown no improvement this year in his admittedly limited PT, although that lack of PT is no fault of the Reds--he just couldn't stay healthy. With Freel, like Pena, demanding everyday attention, it's unlikely he'll see many more ABs.
Griffey Back From Injury
Where have you heard that before? Kenny was activated on Tuesday night to begin the Reds 6-game West Coast road trip, although he didn't start against the Giants. It possible he could start tomorrow, although Junior is known to ease his way back into the lineup when returning from his many trips off the DL, so the smart move would be to wait until you see him in the lineup before you activate him. Griffey was hitting .346 in 8 games in July before tearing that hammy runnin' down a fly ball in the gap, so if he's 100%, it could be a big boost to an offense that certainly needs it.
You Wouldn't Mistake Him for Cal Ripken
Barry Larkin has officially played in 83 of the Reds' 105 games this year, which in itself isn't very impressive, but it's even less so when you figure in the fact that in 11 of those 83 games, he's only had one AB, and has a total of 13 pinch hits on the year. He recently lamented that pinch hitting was "for the birds", according to the team website. While statistically this has been Barry's best year since 2000, it's obvious that even with an All-Star appearance this year, Barry is merely a shadow of the player he once was. Yeah, it'd be great to have a SS on your team with his stats, but the inconsistency with which he actually plays leaves me suggesting that if you can possibly look elsewhere, that would be a good idea. The last game Barry started was July 24.
Parting with Mr. Jones; "Nice to Meet You"
In a much lower profile trade over the last weekend, the Reds dealt Todd Jones to the Phillies along with minor league outfielder Brad Correll. In return, the Phillies sent minor league shortstop Anderson Machado and pitcher Josh Hancock. Hancock quickly inserted himself into the Reds stat books by picking up the win on Saturday in the second half of a postponed game against Houston. When he entered the game he had yet to meet his new catcher, Jason LaRue. So, how did he introduce himself? "Fastball, changeup, slider. Nice to meet you." Losing Jones makes a bad Reds bullpen much closer to horrific, but considering the salary dump that could've taken place, Reds fans might consider themselves lucky.
Odds and Ends
The Reds' pitchers walked 100 batters in July, their highest monthly total of the season. In fact, each month has seen the walk total get higher. So much for "pitching to contact" as Gullett's Spring Training mantra went. . .The Reds entered Tuesday's game just 1 game out of the cellar in the NL Central. Good news? They're still only 2 games outta 3rd. Compared to the rest of the division, it wouldn't be surprising to see the Reds at rock bottom pretty soon. . .Maybe we've gotten so desperate we should bring back the turf in Cincinnati. The Reds are hitting .291 on turf this year as compared to .249 on grass. Hey, I hate turf too, but anything to stop this slide. Keep the faith, Reds fans. Until next time, I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.
Here Comes Wily Mo
Look at this line. July: .269, 9 HR, 19 RBI, .591 SLG, .938 OPS. This is what Wily Mo can produce with a full-time opportunity and the Reds are gonna be faced with a real decision now that they have a sense whether Wily Mo can play once and for all. What you might be asking is--Is this past month for real? I say yes. Wily Mo did strike out 23 times as only walked 8, but even that paltry K/BB ratio was the best he'd shown all year. The key word is improvement. Also, his contact percentage went way up. Before July, it was 64%. It went up 10% in July to 74%, which is getting close to what would is considered at least acceptable. Again--improvement. That .269 doesn't look astonishing, especially considering his history, but he did it with a 26% hit rate. That's called bad luck.
Battin' With the Bats
Austin Kearns began his minor league rehab with the AAA Louisville Bats on Tuesday night. He went 1-4 with 2 K. It would seem that Kearns is most likely about a week or so from being ready to try his hand (literally) in the majors again. I speculated before that the Reds will take their time with Kearns, considering the way Pena has been playing. Speaking of the Bats, it appears that Brandon Larson took a step back from his likely pending rehab assignment. He aggravated his hamstring injury Sunday when running, according to the team website. Larson has shown no improvement this year in his admittedly limited PT, although that lack of PT is no fault of the Reds--he just couldn't stay healthy. With Freel, like Pena, demanding everyday attention, it's unlikely he'll see many more ABs.
Griffey Back From Injury
Where have you heard that before? Kenny was activated on Tuesday night to begin the Reds 6-game West Coast road trip, although he didn't start against the Giants. It possible he could start tomorrow, although Junior is known to ease his way back into the lineup when returning from his many trips off the DL, so the smart move would be to wait until you see him in the lineup before you activate him. Griffey was hitting .346 in 8 games in July before tearing that hammy runnin' down a fly ball in the gap, so if he's 100%, it could be a big boost to an offense that certainly needs it.
You Wouldn't Mistake Him for Cal Ripken
Barry Larkin has officially played in 83 of the Reds' 105 games this year, which in itself isn't very impressive, but it's even less so when you figure in the fact that in 11 of those 83 games, he's only had one AB, and has a total of 13 pinch hits on the year. He recently lamented that pinch hitting was "for the birds", according to the team website. While statistically this has been Barry's best year since 2000, it's obvious that even with an All-Star appearance this year, Barry is merely a shadow of the player he once was. Yeah, it'd be great to have a SS on your team with his stats, but the inconsistency with which he actually plays leaves me suggesting that if you can possibly look elsewhere, that would be a good idea. The last game Barry started was July 24.
Parting with Mr. Jones; "Nice to Meet You"
In a much lower profile trade over the last weekend, the Reds dealt Todd Jones to the Phillies along with minor league outfielder Brad Correll. In return, the Phillies sent minor league shortstop Anderson Machado and pitcher Josh Hancock. Hancock quickly inserted himself into the Reds stat books by picking up the win on Saturday in the second half of a postponed game against Houston. When he entered the game he had yet to meet his new catcher, Jason LaRue. So, how did he introduce himself? "Fastball, changeup, slider. Nice to meet you." Losing Jones makes a bad Reds bullpen much closer to horrific, but considering the salary dump that could've taken place, Reds fans might consider themselves lucky.
Odds and Ends
The Reds' pitchers walked 100 batters in July, their highest monthly total of the season. In fact, each month has seen the walk total get higher. So much for "pitching to contact" as Gullett's Spring Training mantra went. . .The Reds entered Tuesday's game just 1 game out of the cellar in the NL Central. Good news? They're still only 2 games outta 3rd. Compared to the rest of the division, it wouldn't be surprising to see the Reds at rock bottom pretty soon. . .Maybe we've gotten so desperate we should bring back the turf in Cincinnati. The Reds are hitting .291 on turf this year as compared to .249 on grass. Hey, I hate turf too, but anything to stop this slide. Keep the faith, Reds fans. Until next time, I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.
