Friday, September 17, 2004
Slow Fade Into Oblivion
It's September 17th, the record is 67-79, the distance to the division cellar is a mere four games, there are only two players on the roster who appear in ESPN Player Rater Top 200 (Dunn at 36 and Casey at 52), and the last time the Reds won 3 three games in a row, I was beginning my Memorial Day weekend. Is there any reason to look at this in a glass-half-full way? Um, not if you’re a Reds fan. However, if you're just trolling for some last second help to propel you up a couple spots in your roto league, or maybe for a Francisco Cabrera-type to get that amazing hit on the last day of the season to help your team hoist the H2H league banner, well, then, I just may have a few names for ya. Well, there's Francisco Cabrera, but he'll be 38 next month--and he's retired. Hmm. . .who else?
Luke Hudson
Hudson has quietly amassed a 3-1 record with a sub-2.50 ERA over the last month, which is easy to do quietly if you play on a 4th place team that is at most a spoiler on these September nights. His BAA is .217 and he's thrown fairly well in 4 of his 6 starts. Despite the roll, however, the 27-year-old has always had a propensity for the walk. It's really the only thing that's kept him from being absolutely stellar so far. Well, that and a decent amount of luck. His G/F is currently 0.68, so it would be wise to expect his 0.5 HR/9 to go up, although with such little time left, it may very well hold. He's had pretty good run support too, but regardless, the opportunity is there for him to help your team between now and October 3rd. If you're in a battle for WHIP, though--pass.
Ryan Wagner
I realize he was taken yard today despite throwing only 7 pitches, and his numbers don't really look all that great, but a 11.25 ERA in April combined with a 5.56 June will do that. Since August 1, he's posted a very impressive 1.96 ERA with a 7.04 K/9. Not overpowering, but definitely solid and very capable of helping you in the final stretch. He's coming off a month that saw him throw more innings than ever before in his budding career, so he's getting his chances. Besides, what do the Reds have to lose by trotting him out there in any situation, considering how well he's throwing and that there's nothing to lose pennant-wise? In fact, September has been his best K/BB month of the season so far, with a 4.0. Sure, small sample size, but RW's easily attainable in all leagues.
D'Angelo Jimenez
A lot more widely owned, at least in NL leagues, D'Angelo Jimenez is hitting .333 in September with a couple of swipes, so those of you in mixed leagues who need some middle infielder to step up might just want to ride the D'Train for the last couple of weeks this regular season. Like another teammate of his (who we'll discuss in a moment), his OBP is higher than his SLG, but if you're looking for someone to get on base, he's your guy. The problem is he's been hitting all over the place in the lineup lately (2nd, 3rd, 5th, and for some reason he hit cleanup Tuesday), so his table-setting abilities haven't netted him a lot of runs because he's not always near the top of the lineup and then, of course, the other players need to hit too--and that doesn't always happen. Ask Austin Kearns.
Ryan Freel
This is a long shot, but he is still available in about 7 percent of mixed leagues. He's actually a free agent in one of the leagues I'm in, and if my offense wasn't playing very well (knock on wood) right now, I'd certainly be adding him. Since May 1, he's walked 62 times and struck out 68. He's developed a very good eye at the plate and his worst month of OBP in that span has been .354. Add his 34 steals into the mix and it's clear a scrappy player like Ryan Freel who will not turn it down one notch until the day after the season ends regardless of how many games the Reds rest behind 1st place, if he's available in your league at this point, it would be a very good idea to find a spot for him on your offensive slate. Did I mention he's eligible at 2B, 3B, and OF?
I'll take "Walkin', Whiffin', or Wailin'" for $1000
One of my short-term heroes, Ken Jennings, has correctly answered 92.2% of the questions he's attempted in his historic run on Jeopardy! (yes, there's a website that has that information, and yes, I know the address). While Adam Dunn's exploits haven't reached that incredible height of excellence just yet, it sure seems that way. This season in 606 plate appearances, he's walked, struck out, or homered in 316 of them, which makes for a 52% percent rate. Recently, he crossed the 100 BB/100 K in the same season for the second time in 3 years. I suppose if you're belting 45 HRs, it's okay to whiff that much. But imagine an Adam Dunn that made contact even 76% of time (which isn't all that stellar) instead of 66%. Maybe someday we won't have to. He's still just 24.
Can You Feel It?
Sure, the Reds are gonna have as much to do with the postseason as I will, but as a baseball fan, it's drawing near to what could be the greatest month in all of sports. The NFL and college football are in full-swing, the NBA is making its final preparations to begin its season at the end of the month, college basketball teams are having Midnight Madness-type celebrations, and the NHL...oops, never mind. Most importantly, though, we get the drama and pageantry of the greatest 7 series in all of sports. Four LDSs, two LCSs, and that ultimate partridge in the pear tree, the Fall Classic. It's now less than three weeks away. Sure, the fantasy season'll be over, but there's nothing like postseason MLB. Are you ready? I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.
Luke Hudson
Hudson has quietly amassed a 3-1 record with a sub-2.50 ERA over the last month, which is easy to do quietly if you play on a 4th place team that is at most a spoiler on these September nights. His BAA is .217 and he's thrown fairly well in 4 of his 6 starts. Despite the roll, however, the 27-year-old has always had a propensity for the walk. It's really the only thing that's kept him from being absolutely stellar so far. Well, that and a decent amount of luck. His G/F is currently 0.68, so it would be wise to expect his 0.5 HR/9 to go up, although with such little time left, it may very well hold. He's had pretty good run support too, but regardless, the opportunity is there for him to help your team between now and October 3rd. If you're in a battle for WHIP, though--pass.
Ryan Wagner
I realize he was taken yard today despite throwing only 7 pitches, and his numbers don't really look all that great, but a 11.25 ERA in April combined with a 5.56 June will do that. Since August 1, he's posted a very impressive 1.96 ERA with a 7.04 K/9. Not overpowering, but definitely solid and very capable of helping you in the final stretch. He's coming off a month that saw him throw more innings than ever before in his budding career, so he's getting his chances. Besides, what do the Reds have to lose by trotting him out there in any situation, considering how well he's throwing and that there's nothing to lose pennant-wise? In fact, September has been his best K/BB month of the season so far, with a 4.0. Sure, small sample size, but RW's easily attainable in all leagues.
D'Angelo Jimenez
A lot more widely owned, at least in NL leagues, D'Angelo Jimenez is hitting .333 in September with a couple of swipes, so those of you in mixed leagues who need some middle infielder to step up might just want to ride the D'Train for the last couple of weeks this regular season. Like another teammate of his (who we'll discuss in a moment), his OBP is higher than his SLG, but if you're looking for someone to get on base, he's your guy. The problem is he's been hitting all over the place in the lineup lately (2nd, 3rd, 5th, and for some reason he hit cleanup Tuesday), so his table-setting abilities haven't netted him a lot of runs because he's not always near the top of the lineup and then, of course, the other players need to hit too--and that doesn't always happen. Ask Austin Kearns.
Ryan Freel
This is a long shot, but he is still available in about 7 percent of mixed leagues. He's actually a free agent in one of the leagues I'm in, and if my offense wasn't playing very well (knock on wood) right now, I'd certainly be adding him. Since May 1, he's walked 62 times and struck out 68. He's developed a very good eye at the plate and his worst month of OBP in that span has been .354. Add his 34 steals into the mix and it's clear a scrappy player like Ryan Freel who will not turn it down one notch until the day after the season ends regardless of how many games the Reds rest behind 1st place, if he's available in your league at this point, it would be a very good idea to find a spot for him on your offensive slate. Did I mention he's eligible at 2B, 3B, and OF?
I'll take "Walkin', Whiffin', or Wailin'" for $1000
One of my short-term heroes, Ken Jennings, has correctly answered 92.2% of the questions he's attempted in his historic run on Jeopardy! (yes, there's a website that has that information, and yes, I know the address). While Adam Dunn's exploits haven't reached that incredible height of excellence just yet, it sure seems that way. This season in 606 plate appearances, he's walked, struck out, or homered in 316 of them, which makes for a 52% percent rate. Recently, he crossed the 100 BB/100 K in the same season for the second time in 3 years. I suppose if you're belting 45 HRs, it's okay to whiff that much. But imagine an Adam Dunn that made contact even 76% of time (which isn't all that stellar) instead of 66%. Maybe someday we won't have to. He's still just 24.
Can You Feel It?
Sure, the Reds are gonna have as much to do with the postseason as I will, but as a baseball fan, it's drawing near to what could be the greatest month in all of sports. The NFL and college football are in full-swing, the NBA is making its final preparations to begin its season at the end of the month, college basketball teams are having Midnight Madness-type celebrations, and the NHL...oops, never mind. Most importantly, though, we get the drama and pageantry of the greatest 7 series in all of sports. Four LDSs, two LCSs, and that ultimate partridge in the pear tree, the Fall Classic. It's now less than three weeks away. Sure, the fantasy season'll be over, but there's nothing like postseason MLB. Are you ready? I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.
Dog Days of Summer
The term was coined because early Greeks and Romans thought that Sirius, the Dog Star, which rises with or just before the sun during this time of year, actually was the cause of the extra heat as well. It's also been described as a period of inactivity, which if you've been checking this page any lately, you know that that's certainly been the case here. Whether it was the Olympics (which I've been consuming in large bites), mail order movies (free trials are great), or the resurgence of my comic book collecting (Batman, is, and probably always will be, my hero), I've had a little time to recharge my batteries. My ears haven't been glued to the baseball news wire as they've been for much of the year, but I've kept an eye on things for you. Let's get started.
Ch-ch-ch-ch-changes
A lot has happened since I updated last--Griffey bowed out early again, Felipe Lopez went on a tear, Kearns is back and not better than ever, and the Reds have settled right down into the mediocrity they so desperately tried to avoid in the first half of the season. What does any of it mean? Well, with the true emergence of Pena in the outfield, the Reds face yet another Four's-A-Crowd decision. Griffey has 10-5 immunity and the right to veto any trade, so it's not a lock the Reds could trade him in '05 considering they've deferred money on his contract that pays out until 2024. Sheesh. Who goes, though? Lopez had some terrible luck with a 22% hit rate early and a little too much good luck with a 36% hit rate lately, but the end result is better than his current .239 AVG.
He's learning to draw the walk a little more and remember that he's only 24. There's definitely time for growth. Kearns is 4-14 in his first four games back from his extended stay on the DL after hand surgery, and while he could give your fantasy team a jolt in this last four weeks or so considering his history as a quick starter (.344 April average in '01-'03), with his injury problems this year, he's at best a high-risk/high-reward proposition. As for that mediocrity I was speaking of, a team ERA over 5.00 the last three months will certainly lend itself to that description as well as a team AVG of .261 or lower over the same span. The only position that's hitting over .280 is the 3 hole. Sean Casey, anyone? Even with his .337 clip, it only lifts that spot to a season-long .298.
How Do You Spell Relief? No, Really. . .
This bullpen is, uh, somethin' else, to put it nicely. The lowest active ERA on the team right now outta the pen is Phil Norton's crowd-pleasing 4.50. By comparison, the NL West-leading LA Dodgers don't have an active reliever with an ERA over 3.68 (Carrara). Boy, Giovanni Carrara must really get razzed for having such a high ERA. He oughta be ashamed of himself. The Dodgers would probably love to get rid of a bullpen liability like that. The Reds' worst? That'd be Mr. Joe Valentine at 7.71. In fantasy terms, while Graves is out, no option for saves in the Reds bullpen is a good one. Miley says he'll likely go committee anyway, so go with the best available--which is either Norton (even though he's a lefty) or new reliever Jose Acevedo.
What's Red and White and Starts All Over?
Ryan Freel, of course. He's started 9 times at 2B, 44 at 3B, 11 in LF, 16 in CF, and 21 in RF. He's shown speed, toughness, and a hustle that all players can envy. Now, while only one of those traits really help fantasy owners, Freel has not only provided 28 steals but also a respectable .273 AVG and a very soild .377 OBP. He has more SBs that RBI and his SLG is lower than his OBP, but when you see a guy steal second base on a pitchout (which Freel did Friday night), you know that he can certainly help rack up the steals. I'm not saying that D-Backs starter Brandon Webb and catcher Chris Synder didn't have a hand in that by, well, just being wholly inadequate, but Freel has speed and position eligibility you can use. Being available in 25% of mixed leagues, you might take a look.
Just Haranging Around
Aaron Harang came over from the A's last year in the Jose Guillen deal. He's shown a lot of potential but also ineptitude in economizing his pitches when it's needed. He's only seen the 7th inning 5 times all season (22 starts). Then comes his 3-hit shutout of the St. Louis Cardinals, the best team in baseball, Thursday night. He's walked more than 3 batters only twice all year and fanned at least 4 in all but 7 of his starts, going over 7 in three of them. Here's a pitcher who's still young at 26, never having thrown over 100 innings in a season. So the arm's fresh. The problem is that this year he projects out to 162 IP, 90 more than last season. That could spell trouble should the Reds decide to let him keep going late into games--not this year necessarily, but maybe for 2005.
Odds and Ends
The Reds play 16 of the next 22 at Great American Ball Park, with only 4 of them against teams with a legitimate shot at making the postseason. Now might be a good time to make a run for a over-.500 record and 3rd place in the NL Central. Yeah, it's not the playoffs, but considering where most people picked Cincinnati to finish, '04 could still be considered a mild success. . .Don't blame the rotation. Reds' starters have offered up an outstanding 2.05 ERA in the last 9 games. Record during the stretch? 5-4. . .Despite the drop in the standings, the Reds still have managed to fill on average over 70% of the seats for their home games this year, their highest this young century. Props to the fans. Until next time, I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.
Ch-ch-ch-ch-changes
A lot has happened since I updated last--Griffey bowed out early again, Felipe Lopez went on a tear, Kearns is back and not better than ever, and the Reds have settled right down into the mediocrity they so desperately tried to avoid in the first half of the season. What does any of it mean? Well, with the true emergence of Pena in the outfield, the Reds face yet another Four's-A-Crowd decision. Griffey has 10-5 immunity and the right to veto any trade, so it's not a lock the Reds could trade him in '05 considering they've deferred money on his contract that pays out until 2024. Sheesh. Who goes, though? Lopez had some terrible luck with a 22% hit rate early and a little too much good luck with a 36% hit rate lately, but the end result is better than his current .239 AVG.
He's learning to draw the walk a little more and remember that he's only 24. There's definitely time for growth. Kearns is 4-14 in his first four games back from his extended stay on the DL after hand surgery, and while he could give your fantasy team a jolt in this last four weeks or so considering his history as a quick starter (.344 April average in '01-'03), with his injury problems this year, he's at best a high-risk/high-reward proposition. As for that mediocrity I was speaking of, a team ERA over 5.00 the last three months will certainly lend itself to that description as well as a team AVG of .261 or lower over the same span. The only position that's hitting over .280 is the 3 hole. Sean Casey, anyone? Even with his .337 clip, it only lifts that spot to a season-long .298.
How Do You Spell Relief? No, Really. . .
This bullpen is, uh, somethin' else, to put it nicely. The lowest active ERA on the team right now outta the pen is Phil Norton's crowd-pleasing 4.50. By comparison, the NL West-leading LA Dodgers don't have an active reliever with an ERA over 3.68 (Carrara). Boy, Giovanni Carrara must really get razzed for having such a high ERA. He oughta be ashamed of himself. The Dodgers would probably love to get rid of a bullpen liability like that. The Reds' worst? That'd be Mr. Joe Valentine at 7.71. In fantasy terms, while Graves is out, no option for saves in the Reds bullpen is a good one. Miley says he'll likely go committee anyway, so go with the best available--which is either Norton (even though he's a lefty) or new reliever Jose Acevedo.
What's Red and White and Starts All Over?
Ryan Freel, of course. He's started 9 times at 2B, 44 at 3B, 11 in LF, 16 in CF, and 21 in RF. He's shown speed, toughness, and a hustle that all players can envy. Now, while only one of those traits really help fantasy owners, Freel has not only provided 28 steals but also a respectable .273 AVG and a very soild .377 OBP. He has more SBs that RBI and his SLG is lower than his OBP, but when you see a guy steal second base on a pitchout (which Freel did Friday night), you know that he can certainly help rack up the steals. I'm not saying that D-Backs starter Brandon Webb and catcher Chris Synder didn't have a hand in that by, well, just being wholly inadequate, but Freel has speed and position eligibility you can use. Being available in 25% of mixed leagues, you might take a look.
Just Haranging Around
Aaron Harang came over from the A's last year in the Jose Guillen deal. He's shown a lot of potential but also ineptitude in economizing his pitches when it's needed. He's only seen the 7th inning 5 times all season (22 starts). Then comes his 3-hit shutout of the St. Louis Cardinals, the best team in baseball, Thursday night. He's walked more than 3 batters only twice all year and fanned at least 4 in all but 7 of his starts, going over 7 in three of them. Here's a pitcher who's still young at 26, never having thrown over 100 innings in a season. So the arm's fresh. The problem is that this year he projects out to 162 IP, 90 more than last season. That could spell trouble should the Reds decide to let him keep going late into games--not this year necessarily, but maybe for 2005.
Odds and Ends
The Reds play 16 of the next 22 at Great American Ball Park, with only 4 of them against teams with a legitimate shot at making the postseason. Now might be a good time to make a run for a over-.500 record and 3rd place in the NL Central. Yeah, it's not the playoffs, but considering where most people picked Cincinnati to finish, '04 could still be considered a mild success. . .Don't blame the rotation. Reds' starters have offered up an outstanding 2.05 ERA in the last 9 games. Record during the stretch? 5-4. . .Despite the drop in the standings, the Reds still have managed to fill on average over 70% of the seats for their home games this year, their highest this young century. Props to the fans. Until next time, I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.
