Tuesday, June 29, 2004
Red. . .Alert?
I went to Great American this weekend feeling rather positive about the Reds and their run for the NL Central this year, as the NL's best home team started a 9-game homestand. I left on Sunday seeing the signs of a team that could be headed for a meltdown. Why did my outlook change so much over just three measly games? Well, some of that I'll discuss in here, but what's fortunate is the signs point to a much worse fate for Reds fans than they do for Reds fantasy owners. The Expos are in last and still have viable (albeit much fewer) fantasy options. Same with the Diamondbacks and Royals. After this weekend, I've seen first hand that the last place Pirates sure do. If the Reds don't turn it around soon, they could be headed for a mention in the same breath with that group.
Agent Smith: "It is. . .Inevitable"
The incomparable Matrix villain would smirk ever so slightly when looking at the Reds rotation numbers over the past month and say just that. No one thought this Reds team had anything remotely resembling a fine staff, but to date they've managed to prove doubters wrong and keep the Reds in the race. I'm afraid, however, that the slow decay. . .the "sound of inevitability". . .the sound of the Reds rotation's death could be on the airwaves soon (could you hear my Hugo Weaving cadence in there?). Look at these troubling numbers over the last 30 days: 4-8 record, 5.65 ERA, 1.58 WHIP. The K/BB is marginal at 1.9, and they've had decent control, but the peripheral numbers show nothing that would predict a rebound or resurgence of success. Any hidden performances?
You know I'm high on Acevedo, but he gave up another bomb on Friday, which accounted for 3 of his 4 runs. Otherwise, he looked fine. Harang looked rusty--which is expected--and it showed in his endurance. If he could ever go deeper into games, he'd be a help. I picked up Lidle for tomorrow, but I'm holding my breath. Bottom line, I wouldn't own any Reds starter (save Acevedo. . .and maybe Lidle for a spot start). That includes Paul Wilson. You've got to trade them all now or waive bye-bye. Because it seems that, at least for the foreseeable future, the decline of Reds rotation performance--and thus most likely the team--is. . .well, inevitable.
Mighty Casey May Sit Out
Sean Casey had his MRI and is currently listed as day-to-day, but a very negative feeling surrounds this latest tweak. More and more reports pop up that talk about his continued trouble with that left leg over the season. He's been fighting a big injury all year and with continued playing time, it may be just a matter of time. Can the Reds afford to sit him out? No, which is why he'll be in there ASAP. On Friday on ESPN Radio, I declared this was not the time to sell high on Casey, but you might wanna put some feelers out if he comes back quick. Right now, you should be able to get some great value for him (assuming they don't read me). Sure, he could finish strong and hit 30+ HRs and hit .350, but the possibility of a weeks-long DL stint is becoming more possible.
Kearns Needs a Hand
The SuperGloves for Austin Kearns will arrive in Cincinnati today. Austin will try and resume regular baseball activities and see if he can make himself ready to get back in the lineup. What no one wants to say is that this is the last ditch effort. If this doesn't fix or even mask the problem, AK is due for trip under the knife. Then he's out weeks to get rid of all the bone spurs in this thumb. I'm still in favor of just going ahead and doing it--the Reds are where they are without any significant help from Kearns this year. His bat is not going to change the flow enough to win the division, especially at less than 100% strength, which he is. I'll say it again--Kearns is not valuable unless he's completely healthy. Right now he's not. Don't bother with Kearns any time soon.
We've Come to This?
Griffey is 1-27 since #500. Casey is hurt. It's June 29th and Dunn has already fanned 93 times. Brandon Larson has again failed with more PT by hitting .178 in June. Larkin has missed half of the Reds games this month. Who's left? How about Juan Castro, who's hitting .409 in June. Castro has been forever described as a hitter as "having a really good glove", so this month's raking is entirely out of place. Is it "for real", as they say? I'd say not. Castro has improved his hitting over the years, but this .409 is only over 22 ABs, although what's wrong with picking up someone in a utility spot while they're hot? He'll mainly help you with average and that's about it, but this is indeed what it's come to. Right now, Castro is as hot as they've got.
PT Issues
I seem to be getting a lot of mail regarding PT issues with players like Freel, Pena, Larson, and Hummel. Right now they're in a deadly fantasy melting pot with each other along with Cruz and Clark that only serves to curb what value any of them will have (and only Freel and Pena would have any to begin with). Miley has shown no indication of any front runners to this mix, although with Casey out temporarily, Hummel will probably get some time at first. Another possibility is Dunn coming to first, allowing Freel to play third and Pena to play left. Hope for that. Otherwise, it's more of a super sub situation for all of them, which should leave you looking for other options. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.
Agent Smith: "It is. . .Inevitable"
The incomparable Matrix villain would smirk ever so slightly when looking at the Reds rotation numbers over the past month and say just that. No one thought this Reds team had anything remotely resembling a fine staff, but to date they've managed to prove doubters wrong and keep the Reds in the race. I'm afraid, however, that the slow decay. . .the "sound of inevitability". . .the sound of the Reds rotation's death could be on the airwaves soon (could you hear my Hugo Weaving cadence in there?). Look at these troubling numbers over the last 30 days: 4-8 record, 5.65 ERA, 1.58 WHIP. The K/BB is marginal at 1.9, and they've had decent control, but the peripheral numbers show nothing that would predict a rebound or resurgence of success. Any hidden performances?
You know I'm high on Acevedo, but he gave up another bomb on Friday, which accounted for 3 of his 4 runs. Otherwise, he looked fine. Harang looked rusty--which is expected--and it showed in his endurance. If he could ever go deeper into games, he'd be a help. I picked up Lidle for tomorrow, but I'm holding my breath. Bottom line, I wouldn't own any Reds starter (save Acevedo. . .and maybe Lidle for a spot start). That includes Paul Wilson. You've got to trade them all now or waive bye-bye. Because it seems that, at least for the foreseeable future, the decline of Reds rotation performance--and thus most likely the team--is. . .well, inevitable.
Mighty Casey May Sit Out
Sean Casey had his MRI and is currently listed as day-to-day, but a very negative feeling surrounds this latest tweak. More and more reports pop up that talk about his continued trouble with that left leg over the season. He's been fighting a big injury all year and with continued playing time, it may be just a matter of time. Can the Reds afford to sit him out? No, which is why he'll be in there ASAP. On Friday on ESPN Radio, I declared this was not the time to sell high on Casey, but you might wanna put some feelers out if he comes back quick. Right now, you should be able to get some great value for him (assuming they don't read me). Sure, he could finish strong and hit 30+ HRs and hit .350, but the possibility of a weeks-long DL stint is becoming more possible.
Kearns Needs a Hand
The SuperGloves for Austin Kearns will arrive in Cincinnati today. Austin will try and resume regular baseball activities and see if he can make himself ready to get back in the lineup. What no one wants to say is that this is the last ditch effort. If this doesn't fix or even mask the problem, AK is due for trip under the knife. Then he's out weeks to get rid of all the bone spurs in this thumb. I'm still in favor of just going ahead and doing it--the Reds are where they are without any significant help from Kearns this year. His bat is not going to change the flow enough to win the division, especially at less than 100% strength, which he is. I'll say it again--Kearns is not valuable unless he's completely healthy. Right now he's not. Don't bother with Kearns any time soon.
We've Come to This?
Griffey is 1-27 since #500. Casey is hurt. It's June 29th and Dunn has already fanned 93 times. Brandon Larson has again failed with more PT by hitting .178 in June. Larkin has missed half of the Reds games this month. Who's left? How about Juan Castro, who's hitting .409 in June. Castro has been forever described as a hitter as "having a really good glove", so this month's raking is entirely out of place. Is it "for real", as they say? I'd say not. Castro has improved his hitting over the years, but this .409 is only over 22 ABs, although what's wrong with picking up someone in a utility spot while they're hot? He'll mainly help you with average and that's about it, but this is indeed what it's come to. Right now, Castro is as hot as they've got.
PT Issues
I seem to be getting a lot of mail regarding PT issues with players like Freel, Pena, Larson, and Hummel. Right now they're in a deadly fantasy melting pot with each other along with Cruz and Clark that only serves to curb what value any of them will have (and only Freel and Pena would have any to begin with). Miley has shown no indication of any front runners to this mix, although with Casey out temporarily, Hummel will probably get some time at first. Another possibility is Dunn coming to first, allowing Freel to play third and Pena to play left. Hope for that. Otherwise, it's more of a super sub situation for all of them, which should leave you looking for other options. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.
Friday, June 25, 2004
Great American Road Trip
The Reds finished up 19 of 25 away from Great American Ball Park, and all the road games were split between two measly 3-game homestands. During the span, despite the highly publicized 7-game slide, they actually finished out of the red at 13-12. Of course, that 5-1 mark at home during the stretch helped quite a lot. Now, nine in a row at the GABP. Start your Reds hitters and ride along with the best home record in the NL. They'll start 3 games back of the Cards tonight with the Pirates, Mets, and Indians coming to Cincinnati. The potential for a run at first place is there--especially with Harang back tomorrow. Those teams are a combined 17 games under .500 on the road. With Acevedo, Harang, and Wilson on tap, the only question should be keeping the cold Pirates in the ball park.
Speaking of Leaving the Park
Jose Acevedo is a fantasy star waiting to happen. I mean it. Front line. It seems no one thinks that but me, and I hear mutters of "Stupid Reds fan" when I say it, but the fact is even though it's my opinion. . .I'm right. Look at this: His K/9 rate is over 7, his K/BB ratio is over 3.7 (outstanding), he's gone at least 6 innings in 10 of 14 starts, 7 in at least 5, he's got good velocity, and he's still just 26. Problems? He's allowed as many HRs as he has BBs. Think about that for a minute. Most pitchers "marginal pitchers", which is no doubt what Jose is considered now, walk a few a game. The NL BB/9 average is 3.4. Jose? 1.9. That's a little over his head but not much. His minor league control was good. He's walked 2 or less in 12 of his 14 starts.
The homer problem is on the other end of the spectrum. His HR/9 is also 1.9. NL average? 1.1. That may not sound like much of a difference, but look at it like this--the best pitchers at NOT giving up home runs come in consistently at just under 1.0. See how far on the wrong side of this issue JA is? If he could come down to near average, it would be a huge jump. 57% of the runs he's allowed this season have come via the dinger. Only twice has he taken the mound and not allowed a bomb. Do ya see what I'm gettin' at here? Yes, he's a flyball pitcher, so some long ones have to be expected, but not at almost double the average of NL pitchers. This will come down, I bet--he's been somewhat unlucky. When it does, you're gonna want Jose Acevedo. Trust me.
Three Reasons Why I Like Ryan Freel
1. Before a recent game at Wrigley Field, Freel asked umpire Eric Cooper if it was permissible (per the ground rules) to jump on the railing and then on top of the dugout after the ball.
2. He then asked Cooper if it was okay to use a camera in the camera well as a springboard to jump into the stands after a ball.
3. He was serious.
Long live Ryan Freel.
SuperGlove
That's what Austin Kearns is waiting on before he comes back to the lineup. Seriously. After visiting a hand specialist on Tuesday, the Reds recruited Louisiville Slugger to send Kearns 4 different special gloves that are geared to protect Austin's thumb from the typical wear-and-tear of an outfielder. You know, like catching the ball, things like that. No word on when the shipment is due, but honestly, I'm not losing sleep over what Brown may be doing for Austin, considering his .195 batting average. The broken callus on his hand may be healed, but I'm not sure Austin's been the same since the shoulder injury last year. The man's still just 24--if he's really hurt, shutting him down wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. Before you gasp at my lack of loyalty, read on.
Wily Mo PT?
All I ever hear about Wily Mo is someone saying, "He needs to be in the minors and get more work there." Or "They just need to trade him. He's too young." Okay, people, he's just two years younger than AK. Did you know as much as he's ridden the pine he only has 457 less ABs than Kearns? That's less than a full season. Their career SLG numbers are almost identical. Kearns has 31 career HRs, Wily has 12. Know what Wily projects out to with Kearns' ABs? 65. The biggest difference between them is their career contact rate, Kearns connecting 76% of the time, Pena 64%. However, Kearns was connecting in only 66% of his ABs this year. So where's the difference? A hurt Kearns isn't valuable. If we need to trade anyone. . .(darting eyes around). . .it's Kearns.
Odds and Ends
I'll be appearing tonight on the Fantasy Baseball Show to talk Reds baseball. The show is hosted by Michael Potter and Deron Filip. The show airs on ESPN 860 KMVP in Phoenix. Never fear for those outside the Phoenix area--the show airs also via webcast at fantasybaseballshow.com. It's tonight from 9-10 pm ET (6-7 PT). Check it out if you're not at the park. . .Larkin should be back by Saturday. Either that or he'll be DLed. A full report is over at Reds Report (redsreport.blogspot.com). Also, don't forget your new column site Red Letters (theredletters.blogspot.com). Obviously, I won't be at the park tonight, but I'll be out Saturday and Sunday, so come on out with me and watch the Reds make the Pirates walk the plank. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.
Speaking of Leaving the Park
Jose Acevedo is a fantasy star waiting to happen. I mean it. Front line. It seems no one thinks that but me, and I hear mutters of "Stupid Reds fan" when I say it, but the fact is even though it's my opinion. . .I'm right. Look at this: His K/9 rate is over 7, his K/BB ratio is over 3.7 (outstanding), he's gone at least 6 innings in 10 of 14 starts, 7 in at least 5, he's got good velocity, and he's still just 26. Problems? He's allowed as many HRs as he has BBs. Think about that for a minute. Most pitchers "marginal pitchers", which is no doubt what Jose is considered now, walk a few a game. The NL BB/9 average is 3.4. Jose? 1.9. That's a little over his head but not much. His minor league control was good. He's walked 2 or less in 12 of his 14 starts.
The homer problem is on the other end of the spectrum. His HR/9 is also 1.9. NL average? 1.1. That may not sound like much of a difference, but look at it like this--the best pitchers at NOT giving up home runs come in consistently at just under 1.0. See how far on the wrong side of this issue JA is? If he could come down to near average, it would be a huge jump. 57% of the runs he's allowed this season have come via the dinger. Only twice has he taken the mound and not allowed a bomb. Do ya see what I'm gettin' at here? Yes, he's a flyball pitcher, so some long ones have to be expected, but not at almost double the average of NL pitchers. This will come down, I bet--he's been somewhat unlucky. When it does, you're gonna want Jose Acevedo. Trust me.
Three Reasons Why I Like Ryan Freel
1. Before a recent game at Wrigley Field, Freel asked umpire Eric Cooper if it was permissible (per the ground rules) to jump on the railing and then on top of the dugout after the ball.
2. He then asked Cooper if it was okay to use a camera in the camera well as a springboard to jump into the stands after a ball.
3. He was serious.
Long live Ryan Freel.
SuperGlove
That's what Austin Kearns is waiting on before he comes back to the lineup. Seriously. After visiting a hand specialist on Tuesday, the Reds recruited Louisiville Slugger to send Kearns 4 different special gloves that are geared to protect Austin's thumb from the typical wear-and-tear of an outfielder. You know, like catching the ball, things like that. No word on when the shipment is due, but honestly, I'm not losing sleep over what Brown may be doing for Austin, considering his .195 batting average. The broken callus on his hand may be healed, but I'm not sure Austin's been the same since the shoulder injury last year. The man's still just 24--if he's really hurt, shutting him down wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. Before you gasp at my lack of loyalty, read on.
Wily Mo PT?
All I ever hear about Wily Mo is someone saying, "He needs to be in the minors and get more work there." Or "They just need to trade him. He's too young." Okay, people, he's just two years younger than AK. Did you know as much as he's ridden the pine he only has 457 less ABs than Kearns? That's less than a full season. Their career SLG numbers are almost identical. Kearns has 31 career HRs, Wily has 12. Know what Wily projects out to with Kearns' ABs? 65. The biggest difference between them is their career contact rate, Kearns connecting 76% of the time, Pena 64%. However, Kearns was connecting in only 66% of his ABs this year. So where's the difference? A hurt Kearns isn't valuable. If we need to trade anyone. . .(darting eyes around). . .it's Kearns.
Odds and Ends
I'll be appearing tonight on the Fantasy Baseball Show to talk Reds baseball. The show is hosted by Michael Potter and Deron Filip. The show airs on ESPN 860 KMVP in Phoenix. Never fear for those outside the Phoenix area--the show airs also via webcast at fantasybaseballshow.com. It's tonight from 9-10 pm ET (6-7 PT). Check it out if you're not at the park. . .Larkin should be back by Saturday. Either that or he'll be DLed. A full report is over at Reds Report (redsreport.blogspot.com). Also, don't forget your new column site Red Letters (theredletters.blogspot.com). Obviously, I won't be at the park tonight, but I'll be out Saturday and Sunday, so come on out with me and watch the Reds make the Pirates walk the plank. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.
Tuesday, June 22, 2004
The Crown Jewel
Everyone has their team. Their ONE team--you know the one. I love baseball. I've loved it since my father sat me down in front of Game 1 of the 1985 World Series at the ripe old age of 7. For me (although the Reds weren't in the '85 Series), my team has always been the Reds. I love several baseball teams (my friends regularly poke fun at how much baseball apparel I own), but no team has my allegiance like the Cincinnati Reds. Good, bad, worse...I'm here for it all. Frodo had One Ring. Romeo had One Juliet. I may enjoy many sports and many teams, but my One team is in the Queen City. I applied for this position last year and lost out to Michael Carey, who had been doing the updates. This year, I ended up in Montreal and then Anaheim.
However, as of today, the position became vacant again and I was all too ready to jump over and cover the National League as well. Now I'm here. Finally. It feels good, actually. So. . . welcome, and from here, I'll do my part to keep you in the know as far as the Reds fantasy situation is concerned. If, for some reason, you find you can't get enough of my dashing wit, or you want to keep an eye on the action in the Junior Circuit, you'll notice that my name is still posted across the big correspondent board in the American League as well. The Anaheim Angels is my team over there. Don't worry though. It won't cause any conflict of interest--that is, until we see a Reds/Angels World Series. Then I'll just run for cover, I suppose.
Less About Me. . .More About Them
Let's get it started. Everyone either saw, heard, or listened to their UPS guy tell someone (?) about Griff's 500th HR this past Sunday. Great moment. Great player. I wrote a little more about it at your new Cincinnati Reds column archive site (theredletters.blogspot.com). Go check out how Griffey compared timewise between 499 and 500 to the other members the 500 Club. The historical data was quite interesting.
Paul Wilson: Trading Block Material
The Reds are at Shea for three straight starting tonight. Paul Wilson tries for the fourth time to go to 8-0. Let's hope he gets it. Then--you can trade him. Yes, I know he has a 3.17 ERA and I'm happy for Paul as I'm sure many of you are, but we're about winning our fantasy league here, and Paul's peripherals aren't cutting it. 96% owned in mixed leagues is too much for a guy who only has a K/9 of 5.2--especially when there are guys like Kelvim Escobar, Brad Radke, and Nate Robertson who are all owned at a lower percentage and available in my 8-team league. If Paul wins tonight, now would be a great time to explore moving him because he hasn't struck out more than 5.2 batters an inning since 2001.
Got Freel?
It's really hard not to be a fan of Ryan Freel. Unfortunately, because of lack of PT (and production too), Freel was never of any fantasy value. I really believe that's changing rather quickly. He reminds me a lot of Chone Figgins (or vice versa). This year, Freel is seeing plenty of the field, having seen action in all of the Reds games this year but 8. He's hitting leadoff on an offensive-producing team (as of today, 5th in the NL, ahead of both CHC and HOU), and he's drawn 15 walks in his last 12 games. Only hitting .250, his OBP is a remarkable .364. Also, I'd expect a spike that batting average. Having only whiffed 37 times this year, he's now drawn 31 walks. He's got 11 SB already and is only owned 2.8 percent of mixed leagues. Did I mention he's eligible at 2B, 3B, and OF? So. . .got Freel?
When is an All-Star Not an All-Star?
When he's Sean Casey. That's, of course, technically not true, because I'm sure he'll make the team as an sub, but only playing in the same league as ESPN overall #1 fantasy pick Albert Pujols is keeping Casey from being the best first half first baseman in the NL. So can someone tell me why he's over four hundred thousand votes behind Jeff Bagwell for second in the 1B race? My only explanations: 1) The fans who've voted thus far are still voting like it's 1999; 2) There are more people in Houston than in Cincinnati; 3) All-Star voting is a sham. I think it's probably a combination of all of the above. I mean, Adam Everett at SS? Anyone with a broken abacus can see that as unlikely as it was, Jack Wilson is the best NL SS right now. I know it's crazy, but it's the truth.
Odds and Ends
It's a little harder to hit the ground runnin' covering a team I've watched on television and live basically all year than I would have guessed, but I'll be in midseason form in no time. Til then, e-mail me at theredletters@insightbb.com and let me know what info you need. I'll do my best to provide what I can as soon as I can. Remember, be sure to bookmark RLS (theredletters.blogspot.com). Additionally, I'm launching Reds Report (redsreport.blogspot.com) to give you a "once-a-day" brief fantasy report on all things Reds. The first report will be from tonight's game. For now, though, I'm Matt Allen and as Marty Brennaman might say, "This one belongs to the Red. . .Letters."
Waiting for Griff-man
I traveled to Great American Ball Park this week to check out Ken Griffey Jr. attempt to hit home run number 500. Hot ticket, as both games I attended (Tuesday and Wednesday) were above 35,000 in attendance. Griffey didn't hit a bomb in either game, depriving me of seeing a second person join The Mighty 500 Club in person. I watched Sammy Sosa do it last April at GABP. If I'd seen Griff do it, that would've meant I'd seen 10% of the people in club perform the feat (2 of 20). Alas, Homerville 500 is still only Population: 19.
Here's what's interesting, though. I, a huge Reds fan, couldn't help leave both of those games (BOTH Reds wins) a little disappointed. And I could tell I wasn't alone. I should've been estatic that the Reds had halted their 7-game losing streak and taken the first two of three against the hard-hitting Rangers. I was, I suppose, but I was also looking for that individual feat probably even more than the team one. Sadly, that outlook is not uncommon and is what drives a lot of sports--and a lot of sports ratings.
Griffey hit homer #499 Sunday, June 18, in Cleveland. He's since played three games. Griff's on a bit of a roll this season, finally healthy, and he's already jacked 18 homers this year. I did some checking (thanks to Retrosheet, by the way...great site) to see if, maybe over the years, I wasn't the only fan in this position--that of driving to the ballpark day after day waiting to see a bomb that just isn't going out. It was rather interesing what I found.
NOTE: [The remainder of this column was written post-500 bomb by Griffey. The statistics are still worth hearing though, I think.]
According to history, Griffey should've hit his home run when I was there to watch. Griffey on Sunday became the 20th player to hit 500 home runs. I looked up the previous 19 players to see just how long it took them (in games) to go from 499 to 500. I was only able to get statistics for 12 of the previous 19 (Hank Aaron, Babe Ruth, Willie Mays, Jimmie Foxx, Ted Williams, and Mel Ott were unfortunately the six that I couldn't round up data for). Of those 12 I could, 9 of them only played three games or less between the two home runs (Sammy Sosa actually hit his #499 in the final game of the 2002 season, but only missed his chance to hit #500 in the first three games of 2003). Of those 12, Barry Bonds, Frank Robinson, Mike Schmidt hit it in the very next game. Mark McGwire didn't even wait that long. He hit #499 and #500 in the same game. Reggie Jackson only took one game off between 499 and 500.
Who were the slow rollers like Griffey? Eddie Murray had 5 games and 22 ABs (2 more than Griffey) between 499 and 500. The Mick, Mickey Mantle, took 7 games and 28 ABs between homers 499 and 500. The longest? Can you guess?
Harmon Killebrew tried for 13 games and 43 at-bats before he finally smacked out number 500. The future Hall-of-Famer was most likely so relieved that he managed to relax and bomb number 501 later in the game.
It's impossible to say (for me at least) what the entire data picture would show, but it seems a trend in a large sample of what's available that 499 and 500 usually come pretty close together. For Griffey, it was a little longer than most, but he finally got it done yesterday. Unfortunately for me, it was days after I went to the ball park on back-to-back days to see him do it in person. He also did it on the road, away in St. Louis. He also did it leading off the inning--the sixth, of which I was late coming back to, having flipped away during the commerical. The replay was great though.
Oh well.
So, now that the Waiting for Griff-man Watch is over, hopefully all the flashbulbs will quit popping with every Kenny swing and the Reds can get back to completely focusing on the winning the NL Central. As for me, I'll just have to add Griffey to the list of those I saw hit number 500 on television (Palmeiro, Schimdt, Bonds, McGwire, Murray) instead of the list with one name on it (Sosa) of players I saw do it in person.
But in the future, with McGriff at 493 and Juan Gonzalez, Jeff Bagwell, and Frank Thomas all over 400, if another player makes the approach to 500 and finds himself on the 499 doorstep, don't be shy about going out to the park the next day--and the next and the next--to see him hit #500. Because history shows that it can happen very quickly.
Just not this time.
Regardless, congrats to a special player who, like the other 19 men already in the 500 Club, will deservedly grace the walls of Cooperstown in the years to come. I'm very happy for him.
One thing though, Griff. If you get to 599, I'll be back. Could ya hit 600 just a little quicker? Thanks.
Here's what's interesting, though. I, a huge Reds fan, couldn't help leave both of those games (BOTH Reds wins) a little disappointed. And I could tell I wasn't alone. I should've been estatic that the Reds had halted their 7-game losing streak and taken the first two of three against the hard-hitting Rangers. I was, I suppose, but I was also looking for that individual feat probably even more than the team one. Sadly, that outlook is not uncommon and is what drives a lot of sports--and a lot of sports ratings.
Griffey hit homer #499 Sunday, June 18, in Cleveland. He's since played three games. Griff's on a bit of a roll this season, finally healthy, and he's already jacked 18 homers this year. I did some checking (thanks to Retrosheet, by the way...great site) to see if, maybe over the years, I wasn't the only fan in this position--that of driving to the ballpark day after day waiting to see a bomb that just isn't going out. It was rather interesing what I found.
NOTE: [The remainder of this column was written post-500 bomb by Griffey. The statistics are still worth hearing though, I think.]
According to history, Griffey should've hit his home run when I was there to watch. Griffey on Sunday became the 20th player to hit 500 home runs. I looked up the previous 19 players to see just how long it took them (in games) to go from 499 to 500. I was only able to get statistics for 12 of the previous 19 (Hank Aaron, Babe Ruth, Willie Mays, Jimmie Foxx, Ted Williams, and Mel Ott were unfortunately the six that I couldn't round up data for). Of those 12 I could, 9 of them only played three games or less between the two home runs (Sammy Sosa actually hit his #499 in the final game of the 2002 season, but only missed his chance to hit #500 in the first three games of 2003). Of those 12, Barry Bonds, Frank Robinson, Mike Schmidt hit it in the very next game. Mark McGwire didn't even wait that long. He hit #499 and #500 in the same game. Reggie Jackson only took one game off between 499 and 500.
Who were the slow rollers like Griffey? Eddie Murray had 5 games and 22 ABs (2 more than Griffey) between 499 and 500. The Mick, Mickey Mantle, took 7 games and 28 ABs between homers 499 and 500. The longest? Can you guess?
Harmon Killebrew tried for 13 games and 43 at-bats before he finally smacked out number 500. The future Hall-of-Famer was most likely so relieved that he managed to relax and bomb number 501 later in the game.
It's impossible to say (for me at least) what the entire data picture would show, but it seems a trend in a large sample of what's available that 499 and 500 usually come pretty close together. For Griffey, it was a little longer than most, but he finally got it done yesterday. Unfortunately for me, it was days after I went to the ball park on back-to-back days to see him do it in person. He also did it on the road, away in St. Louis. He also did it leading off the inning--the sixth, of which I was late coming back to, having flipped away during the commerical. The replay was great though.
Oh well.
So, now that the Waiting for Griff-man Watch is over, hopefully all the flashbulbs will quit popping with every Kenny swing and the Reds can get back to completely focusing on the winning the NL Central. As for me, I'll just have to add Griffey to the list of those I saw hit number 500 on television (Palmeiro, Schimdt, Bonds, McGwire, Murray) instead of the list with one name on it (Sosa) of players I saw do it in person.
But in the future, with McGriff at 493 and Juan Gonzalez, Jeff Bagwell, and Frank Thomas all over 400, if another player makes the approach to 500 and finds himself on the 499 doorstep, don't be shy about going out to the park the next day--and the next and the next--to see him hit #500. Because history shows that it can happen very quickly.
Just not this time.
Regardless, congrats to a special player who, like the other 19 men already in the 500 Club, will deservedly grace the walls of Cooperstown in the years to come. I'm very happy for him.
One thing though, Griff. If you get to 599, I'll be back. Could ya hit 600 just a little quicker? Thanks.
