Wednesday, May 18, 2005
Where's George and Weezy?
Take one look at the NL Central standings and you won't have any trouble mistaking the Reds for the Jeffersons. They aren't movin' on up. They're living in the basement. They may be up in the big leagues, gettin' their turn at bat, but that dee-luxe apartment in the sky inhabited by the Cardinals is already a long way off, more than 10 games away in mid-May. Reds fans, and fantasy owners, are left with a lot of questions, few with good answers. A team that was at .500 after a wild 11-9 win over the Cubs on 4.26, has since gone 4-14, surrendering 125 runs in just 18 games. In the preseason, I was sure that the Reds would at least be better than the Pirates in this division (and they still are), but right now the Reds don't have to have a piece of the pie--they'll take a crumb.
Mo Brother, Where Art Thou?
In that last game before the Reds started this abysmal streak, Wily Mo Pena hurt his quad and has managed just 5 ABs in 2 games since. One of those ABs was a bomb, 3 of the other 4 were whiffs. You can expect more of that when he finally plays again. It's frustrating for Pena owners to see his potential either sit on the bench or lost to injury after producing as he did in April. Pena is eligible to come off the DL on Friday and right now, it appears that will be the case. He worked pain-free at GABP Monday, says the Cincinnati Enquirer, but Miley noted that sometimes the pain for Mo comes the next day. It's a wait and see deal for now, but expect him back soon. Austin Kearns is hitting .364 over the last week, so again regular PT won't come easy for the big Mo.
What in the Freel is Going On?
It's possible that his abacus broke. It's possible he never watched Sesame Street. It's also possible that he wants to give D'Angelo Jimenez every single earthly chance to keep his 2B role. Whatever the reason, Dave Miley is not starting Ryan Freel every day--and he should be. He's 5th on the team in hits, yet only 9th in ABs. He has 57% of the team's SB. He's tops in AVG and OBP, even higher than walk-machine Adam Dunn's .440 OBP. He's walked more than he's struck out--no other Red can say that. Since the beginning of last season, his OBP is .373. His career OBP is .378. D'Angelo Jimenez's is .349. Joe Randa's is .342. Here's something else--he's started 22 games this season and gotten at least one hit in 19 of them. The 3 he didn't? He still reached base with a walk.
From Eleven to Twelve?
Barry Larkin was unceremoniously shoved out the door by the Reds in the offseason, forcing the future HOFer into retirement. My distaste for that move is already noted. My distaste for the signing of Aurilia is also noted (nothing against RA, but the Reds didn't need him). However, Felipe Lopez is looking to remedy all that by playing his way into the starting role with Aurilia on the DL. Lopez's eye has improved, he's got that pop that scouts thought he had back in his bat, and he's stopped playing catch with ready fans in the third row. His .305 average is over his head because he's been fortunate (36% hit rate), but his contact % is way up (84% from 75% in '04). He's not as good as his numbers suggest--yet. He's still only 25, and he should also be playing every day.
Who in the World is Elizardo Ramirez?
I sent Carmen Sandiego out to get some info on this guy. She reports back (from an undisclosed location) that he's spent some time in the Reds and Phils organizations, mostly in low-A or rookie ball. Last year, he got some AA work in at Reading and Chattanooga, but the numbers aren't that impressive. The good news is that he has shown decent potential, but his K rate will have to rise some for him to be truly effective. Now, I'd say it's way too early to tell, but it appears he could be a bit of a soft tosser with great control who'll occasionally get whacked around. The good news is that he's 22 with plenty of time to develop. It's very possible he'll get a few more starts, but I'd let him develop on someone else's team. There are too many risks with his age and experience level.
Bleacher Fans Ask, "Will It Ever Stop?!"
The Reds lead the NL with 58 HR allowed, Eric Milton and Paul Wilson alone accounting for 24 of those. My preseason prediction of 35 HR for Milton appears to be in grave danger. To give you an idea of where the Reds stand, PHI has allowed 52 HR (2nd), COL 41 (5th) and FLA 19 (fewest). The Marlins' total is less than a third of the Reds'. Sheesh. Ballparks factors aside, that's really bad. Right now I tell you the only 2 Reds pitchers you should roster are Wagner (he won't close, but he's all this bloatpen has) and Harang (who's solid and is just getting started). The Dayton Daily News reports that Harang is the first Reds starter to go 8 IP in consecutive starts since Chris Reitsma in 2001, who was subsequently traded to ATL.
I Definitely Do.
I really appreciate all the well wishes regarding my upcoming wedding. The day is upon us and I'll be putting myself on the 15-day WL. You can still e-mail at redletters@insightbb.com, but I won't be able to answer you until I return. There are still a few e-mails I haven't gotten to yet that I hope to reply to before I travel to our wedding. I appreciate your patience and I'll be back and ready to go after Memorial Day. They call your wedding day "the greatest day of your life". That's what they say. For me and the most wonderful girl I've ever met, forever starts Saturday--but it won't be our greatest day. I believe it will indeed be priceless, but we should all have even greater days ahead--including the Reds. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.
Mo Brother, Where Art Thou?
In that last game before the Reds started this abysmal streak, Wily Mo Pena hurt his quad and has managed just 5 ABs in 2 games since. One of those ABs was a bomb, 3 of the other 4 were whiffs. You can expect more of that when he finally plays again. It's frustrating for Pena owners to see his potential either sit on the bench or lost to injury after producing as he did in April. Pena is eligible to come off the DL on Friday and right now, it appears that will be the case. He worked pain-free at GABP Monday, says the Cincinnati Enquirer, but Miley noted that sometimes the pain for Mo comes the next day. It's a wait and see deal for now, but expect him back soon. Austin Kearns is hitting .364 over the last week, so again regular PT won't come easy for the big Mo.
What in the Freel is Going On?
It's possible that his abacus broke. It's possible he never watched Sesame Street. It's also possible that he wants to give D'Angelo Jimenez every single earthly chance to keep his 2B role. Whatever the reason, Dave Miley is not starting Ryan Freel every day--and he should be. He's 5th on the team in hits, yet only 9th in ABs. He has 57% of the team's SB. He's tops in AVG and OBP, even higher than walk-machine Adam Dunn's .440 OBP. He's walked more than he's struck out--no other Red can say that. Since the beginning of last season, his OBP is .373. His career OBP is .378. D'Angelo Jimenez's is .349. Joe Randa's is .342. Here's something else--he's started 22 games this season and gotten at least one hit in 19 of them. The 3 he didn't? He still reached base with a walk.
From Eleven to Twelve?
Barry Larkin was unceremoniously shoved out the door by the Reds in the offseason, forcing the future HOFer into retirement. My distaste for that move is already noted. My distaste for the signing of Aurilia is also noted (nothing against RA, but the Reds didn't need him). However, Felipe Lopez is looking to remedy all that by playing his way into the starting role with Aurilia on the DL. Lopez's eye has improved, he's got that pop that scouts thought he had back in his bat, and he's stopped playing catch with ready fans in the third row. His .305 average is over his head because he's been fortunate (36% hit rate), but his contact % is way up (84% from 75% in '04). He's not as good as his numbers suggest--yet. He's still only 25, and he should also be playing every day.
Who in the World is Elizardo Ramirez?
I sent Carmen Sandiego out to get some info on this guy. She reports back (from an undisclosed location) that he's spent some time in the Reds and Phils organizations, mostly in low-A or rookie ball. Last year, he got some AA work in at Reading and Chattanooga, but the numbers aren't that impressive. The good news is that he has shown decent potential, but his K rate will have to rise some for him to be truly effective. Now, I'd say it's way too early to tell, but it appears he could be a bit of a soft tosser with great control who'll occasionally get whacked around. The good news is that he's 22 with plenty of time to develop. It's very possible he'll get a few more starts, but I'd let him develop on someone else's team. There are too many risks with his age and experience level.
Bleacher Fans Ask, "Will It Ever Stop?!"
The Reds lead the NL with 58 HR allowed, Eric Milton and Paul Wilson alone accounting for 24 of those. My preseason prediction of 35 HR for Milton appears to be in grave danger. To give you an idea of where the Reds stand, PHI has allowed 52 HR (2nd), COL 41 (5th) and FLA 19 (fewest). The Marlins' total is less than a third of the Reds'. Sheesh. Ballparks factors aside, that's really bad. Right now I tell you the only 2 Reds pitchers you should roster are Wagner (he won't close, but he's all this bloatpen has) and Harang (who's solid and is just getting started). The Dayton Daily News reports that Harang is the first Reds starter to go 8 IP in consecutive starts since Chris Reitsma in 2001, who was subsequently traded to ATL.
I Definitely Do.
I really appreciate all the well wishes regarding my upcoming wedding. The day is upon us and I'll be putting myself on the 15-day WL. You can still e-mail at redletters@insightbb.com, but I won't be able to answer you until I return. There are still a few e-mails I haven't gotten to yet that I hope to reply to before I travel to our wedding. I appreciate your patience and I'll be back and ready to go after Memorial Day. They call your wedding day "the greatest day of your life". That's what they say. For me and the most wonderful girl I've ever met, forever starts Saturday--but it won't be our greatest day. I believe it will indeed be priceless, but we should all have even greater days ahead--including the Reds. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.
Tuesday, May 10, 2005
The Paul Wilson Club
Let me tell you about a very exclusive group. It was founded on 5.28.03 as The Jeff Austin Club after his 5 ER performance against the Marlins in which he didn't record a single out before being yanked. The membership grew when Paul Wilson was inducted weeks later at Houston, blowing up for 7 ER without a single batter retired before hitting the showers. Now, almost two years later, Wilson is not only a member, he's also now the president after his 5 H, 8 ER coup de grace. He's the 3rd Reds starter since the start of 2002 to not get out of inning 1 and he's done it twice (Austin also did it again in his very next start in '03, but got 2 outs before getting pulled. Luis Pineda couldn't get of the 1st @ STL on 6.30.02, but he at least retired 1). Hail to the new Chief, Mr. Paul Wilson.
There have been frequent warnings in this column in the recent past about the risk you acquire if you decide to roster Paul Wilson. Only 0.1% of you in mixed leagues haven't listened, and 47.6% of NL owners have surmised that Wilson could be of some use to their squad. Hopefully unless you're an owner who absolutely can't find pitching anywhere else, you'll finally take heed and waive Wilson accordingly. I hear plenty of great things about Paul Wilson's character, but character doesn't bring home roto points. You might argue that Wilson has had 4 "quality starts" out of 7, but I'll tell you that the quality start is an idiotic stat and that Wilson's 7 IP, 3 ER, 9 K turn vs. PIT on 4.20 has been his only good start of the year. Wilson is a 4 or 5 NL starter at best.
Comin' Around
After hitting .258 through 4.23, Sean Casey is now up to .280 and has been as high as .316, leading the Reds in multi-hit games with 7. His G/F ratio is up to 2.28, most of those hit hard to the right side, making him easier to defend. That many grounders also means that HRs will be few and far between, but if you've got him for AVG, you're going to be satisfied. He's only hitting .230 at home, but that will change with better luck. Another Red who is "startin' to come together, boys", as Lou Brown would say, is Ken Griffey Jr. Number 30 is 5 for his last 17 with 2 bombs. Griff is another guy who's hitting a lot more grounders than normal. His G/F is over 1.00 and its highest since 1992 (1.22). His May success shouldn't surprise--it's his highest career OBP month (.984).
PT Phone Home
Last time we talked about the issues with PT at several positions. A week later, there's yet another wrinkle--it appears now that Ryan Freel is going to start siphoning off ABs from Austin Kearns in RF. His .338 AVG and .456 OBP make it easy to see why he has to be in the lineup everyday, especially on a team that's struggling like the Reds. He has now passed Jimenez for the most plate appearances on the team in the leadoff spot (70 to 63). I think it's a safe bet that Freel will be playing just about every day for the foreseeable future (either at 2B or RF). As they say, talent always rises to the top, and Freel is certainly making the most of 2005 so far. For Kearns owners, I've told several e-mailers that if there are any even remotely better options, I'd waive bye-bye to Austin.
The Red Cross
Wily Mo Pena leads the list of Reds that owners most want to see back in the lineup. For now, though, his quad is limiting him to strictly pinch-hit duty, and it's not encouraging that he's coming along so slowly since his injury April 23. Those of you with Pena will just have to be patient, but the good news is that once he is available, he's likely going to get a chance to pick up where he left off, getting the nod before Kearns, who's in a real rut now. Josh Hancock and Luke Hudson are still being brought along very slowly--the faster they heal, the sooner the Reds have to come to big decision with Brandon Claussen, Hudson, and Hancock all involved. Ramon Ortiz is apparently OK after his 2nd start back from his groin injury, but neither start has been very impressive.
Bombs Away!
In case you're wondering, the Eric Milton Home Run Ticker is up to 13 in 39.1 IP. You don't need high math to see that that's right at 3 every 9 IP. Sure, he's got a 22/7 K/BB ratio (which is excellent), but his K/9 is 5.0 and it's tough to be very dominant with that few whiffs. Opponents are also hitting .303 against him so far, which is another huge red flag, although batters have been fortunate with a 35% hit rate. I'd love to give you a stat saying that he's starting to get more consistent but he's really not. He's started 7 games and given up a bomb in all of them but one (4.16 vs. HOU). Only one other start (5.2 vs. STL) was great, so right now it's just best to say that Milton has the potential to be better, but not until he can keep it in the park a lot more.
I Want the Same Thing!
I've been quite a bit of mail about Ryan Wagner supplanting Danny Graves as closer. Some of you have tried the tack of pleading with me to have a sit down with Miley to discuss this option. As much as I'd love to have Miley's ear, I don't--but I can tell you that he probably wouldn't listen. Graves is going to be the closer (a bitter reality I've stated here many, many times--check the archives at http://theredletters.blogspot.com). Yes, there is the real potential for a major Chernobylesque meltdown, but until it happens, Graves gets the ball in the 9th. Period. His numbers are absolutely horrific, but he's what you're going to have deal with. I'm sorry, but there's nothing I can do except say 'don't jump off the roof yet'. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.
There have been frequent warnings in this column in the recent past about the risk you acquire if you decide to roster Paul Wilson. Only 0.1% of you in mixed leagues haven't listened, and 47.6% of NL owners have surmised that Wilson could be of some use to their squad. Hopefully unless you're an owner who absolutely can't find pitching anywhere else, you'll finally take heed and waive Wilson accordingly. I hear plenty of great things about Paul Wilson's character, but character doesn't bring home roto points. You might argue that Wilson has had 4 "quality starts" out of 7, but I'll tell you that the quality start is an idiotic stat and that Wilson's 7 IP, 3 ER, 9 K turn vs. PIT on 4.20 has been his only good start of the year. Wilson is a 4 or 5 NL starter at best.
Comin' Around
After hitting .258 through 4.23, Sean Casey is now up to .280 and has been as high as .316, leading the Reds in multi-hit games with 7. His G/F ratio is up to 2.28, most of those hit hard to the right side, making him easier to defend. That many grounders also means that HRs will be few and far between, but if you've got him for AVG, you're going to be satisfied. He's only hitting .230 at home, but that will change with better luck. Another Red who is "startin' to come together, boys", as Lou Brown would say, is Ken Griffey Jr. Number 30 is 5 for his last 17 with 2 bombs. Griff is another guy who's hitting a lot more grounders than normal. His G/F is over 1.00 and its highest since 1992 (1.22). His May success shouldn't surprise--it's his highest career OBP month (.984).
PT Phone Home
Last time we talked about the issues with PT at several positions. A week later, there's yet another wrinkle--it appears now that Ryan Freel is going to start siphoning off ABs from Austin Kearns in RF. His .338 AVG and .456 OBP make it easy to see why he has to be in the lineup everyday, especially on a team that's struggling like the Reds. He has now passed Jimenez for the most plate appearances on the team in the leadoff spot (70 to 63). I think it's a safe bet that Freel will be playing just about every day for the foreseeable future (either at 2B or RF). As they say, talent always rises to the top, and Freel is certainly making the most of 2005 so far. For Kearns owners, I've told several e-mailers that if there are any even remotely better options, I'd waive bye-bye to Austin.
The Red Cross
Wily Mo Pena leads the list of Reds that owners most want to see back in the lineup. For now, though, his quad is limiting him to strictly pinch-hit duty, and it's not encouraging that he's coming along so slowly since his injury April 23. Those of you with Pena will just have to be patient, but the good news is that once he is available, he's likely going to get a chance to pick up where he left off, getting the nod before Kearns, who's in a real rut now. Josh Hancock and Luke Hudson are still being brought along very slowly--the faster they heal, the sooner the Reds have to come to big decision with Brandon Claussen, Hudson, and Hancock all involved. Ramon Ortiz is apparently OK after his 2nd start back from his groin injury, but neither start has been very impressive.
Bombs Away!
In case you're wondering, the Eric Milton Home Run Ticker is up to 13 in 39.1 IP. You don't need high math to see that that's right at 3 every 9 IP. Sure, he's got a 22/7 K/BB ratio (which is excellent), but his K/9 is 5.0 and it's tough to be very dominant with that few whiffs. Opponents are also hitting .303 against him so far, which is another huge red flag, although batters have been fortunate with a 35% hit rate. I'd love to give you a stat saying that he's starting to get more consistent but he's really not. He's started 7 games and given up a bomb in all of them but one (4.16 vs. HOU). Only one other start (5.2 vs. STL) was great, so right now it's just best to say that Milton has the potential to be better, but not until he can keep it in the park a lot more.
I Want the Same Thing!
I've been quite a bit of mail about Ryan Wagner supplanting Danny Graves as closer. Some of you have tried the tack of pleading with me to have a sit down with Miley to discuss this option. As much as I'd love to have Miley's ear, I don't--but I can tell you that he probably wouldn't listen. Graves is going to be the closer (a bitter reality I've stated here many, many times--check the archives at http://theredletters.blogspot.com). Yes, there is the real potential for a major Chernobylesque meltdown, but until it happens, Graves gets the ball in the 9th. Period. His numbers are absolutely horrific, but he's what you're going to have deal with. I'm sorry, but there's nothing I can do except say 'don't jump off the roof yet'. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.
Tuesday, May 03, 2005
Split Decisions
In recent years, the Reds haven't exactly had a bevy of fantasy-must players. Sure, there are 3 or so every year and a few more who'll help you in deeper leagues, but the Reds (like the White Sox of old) have "won ugly" for a number of years now. In 2005, more than ever though, there are extenuating circumstances that are leaving the Reds with fewer fantasy options than usual. Spring training may have been over for a month now, but there are 3 positions on the diamond where the "starter" isn't actually starting 75% of the time. Of course, as any fantasy owner knows, your "everyday player" doesn't do much damage from the bench. Let's take a look at these splits to see if there will be any change and also see if we can determine who should play.
RF: Austin Kearns/Wily Mo Pena
This is the big daddy. For two guys who are 7th and 9th on the team in ABs, I get more e-mail about this duo than anyone else. It's easy to see why--two players who show quite a bit of promise that start just 3-4 times a week. Miley has played the hot hand--first Kearns from the spring, then Pena later. Then Wily Mo got hurt--back to Kearns. Now Pena starts yesterday. What's next? Unfortunately, more spotty play. I would say Wily Mo probably has more opportunity to win the job outright. He has a higher upside, regardless of how raw he is. You have to wonder how much upside Kearns has left with a 64% contact rate, the result of him missing the ball more year after year. Granted, Pena is hardly better (67%), but he's got rare high-level power and he's healthier.
2B: D'Angelo Jimenez/Ryan Freel
Before the season, because of the economics of baseball ('05 salary: Jimenez, 2.87M; Freel, 405K), I would've told you that Freel had no shot to usurp Jimenez at 2B. With a month in the books now, the differences and trends make it so obvious that Freel should play everyday that Miley and O'Brien may have to make a permanent move. Freel is hitting .319 (this after a .125 week), his Ks and BBs are almost even, his OBP is .439, he's swiped 5 bags and is the fastest guy on the team, and he's really improving with his glove. Jimenez, even with a little misfortune, is only hitting .197, has walked less in than Freel in 24 more ABs, and has an OBP of .288. Yes, Jimenez is younger, but Freel's a sparkplug who is just a better lead off hitter. Watch this closely--Freel may win out.
SS: Rich Aurilia/Felipe Lopez
I don't know why the Reds invited Rich Aurilia to spring training. I get it that he's a vet who's had success. That was 2001 (hitting in front of Bonds). This is 2005. I was a manager of a 20-screen movie theater in 2001. Now, I'm a research editor. Things change. Aurilia was an asset in '01. Now he's not. Things change. I'm not saying Lopez is the Golden Child, mind you. He is Knoblauchian in his ability to take a perfectly routine ground ball and wing it into the dugout. But he's hitting better. Period. And he's 9 years younger. If he'd give up the dream and just hit righty, he'd probably be better off. You get the feeling, though, that Lopez would really have to blow the doors off to get equal or more PT. That leaves him virtually worthless for now.
Griffey Isn't A Fool
I got some mail about Junior after the last column asking if his start should be considered a "fool" or "fool's gold". There was a reason that Junior wasn't included. I think it's probably fairly close to reality. Just like Aurilia, things change, and this is 2005 and this is Griffey as we have to come to know him and embrace him now. His defense, to his credit, has been very good so far this season. But his "diluted" offense now is what I would call the decline of age. Every player gets there. Junior just got there at 35. He's strikes out more, his G/F ratio is at its highest since 1990, and his .280+ days are over. He's could still swat 20 or so, but as much as I like Griffey, his latest medical condition is simply called Father Time.
Bloat, Bloat, Bloat
There really aren't words to shape how the Reds bloatpen makes me feel. The amalgam that comprises 11.25M of the payroll currently sports a 6.01 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, a BB/9 of 4.8, and opponents are hitting .294 against them. I give up--no backhanded joke or verbal malaise will suffice, so I'm just sit quietly and reflect. What happened to the days of Scott Sullivan, Stan Belinda, even Chuck McElroy? Hall of Famers none of them, but at they ate innings effectively and--Got. People. Out. Danny Graves was upset after getting booed off the mound in only his first blown save of the year. The reason for all the boos was that fans were saving them up from the previous 8 saves when he turned their stomaches but stumbled to the save. It's hard to boo after a win, no matter the path to victory.
Soft Tosses
Graves will not be replaced at closer any time soon. Regardless of how you (and I) feel, he still has a 88% save rate. Ramon Ortiz is back in the rotation. Yawn. Two IP, 7 hits, and 6 ER don't exactly do it for me, how about you? Aaron Harang has had 3 superior starts out of 5. Are the 99% or you in mixed leagues who don't own him yet still need starting pitching listening? Are the 6.7% of you in mixed leagues who instead own Eric Milton and his 5.79 ERA and 11 HR in 32.2 IP listening? Inside Ryan Freel's line on 4/30: 2 BB, 3 SB despite an 0-3 day--exactly the kind of potential that shows you why you can use the fantasy versatile Freel. Tough homestand--STL, LA, and SD--but the Reds are 7-4 at home. 3-11 on the road. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.
RF: Austin Kearns/Wily Mo Pena
This is the big daddy. For two guys who are 7th and 9th on the team in ABs, I get more e-mail about this duo than anyone else. It's easy to see why--two players who show quite a bit of promise that start just 3-4 times a week. Miley has played the hot hand--first Kearns from the spring, then Pena later. Then Wily Mo got hurt--back to Kearns. Now Pena starts yesterday. What's next? Unfortunately, more spotty play. I would say Wily Mo probably has more opportunity to win the job outright. He has a higher upside, regardless of how raw he is. You have to wonder how much upside Kearns has left with a 64% contact rate, the result of him missing the ball more year after year. Granted, Pena is hardly better (67%), but he's got rare high-level power and he's healthier.
2B: D'Angelo Jimenez/Ryan Freel
Before the season, because of the economics of baseball ('05 salary: Jimenez, 2.87M; Freel, 405K), I would've told you that Freel had no shot to usurp Jimenez at 2B. With a month in the books now, the differences and trends make it so obvious that Freel should play everyday that Miley and O'Brien may have to make a permanent move. Freel is hitting .319 (this after a .125 week), his Ks and BBs are almost even, his OBP is .439, he's swiped 5 bags and is the fastest guy on the team, and he's really improving with his glove. Jimenez, even with a little misfortune, is only hitting .197, has walked less in than Freel in 24 more ABs, and has an OBP of .288. Yes, Jimenez is younger, but Freel's a sparkplug who is just a better lead off hitter. Watch this closely--Freel may win out.
SS: Rich Aurilia/Felipe Lopez
I don't know why the Reds invited Rich Aurilia to spring training. I get it that he's a vet who's had success. That was 2001 (hitting in front of Bonds). This is 2005. I was a manager of a 20-screen movie theater in 2001. Now, I'm a research editor. Things change. Aurilia was an asset in '01. Now he's not. Things change. I'm not saying Lopez is the Golden Child, mind you. He is Knoblauchian in his ability to take a perfectly routine ground ball and wing it into the dugout. But he's hitting better. Period. And he's 9 years younger. If he'd give up the dream and just hit righty, he'd probably be better off. You get the feeling, though, that Lopez would really have to blow the doors off to get equal or more PT. That leaves him virtually worthless for now.
Griffey Isn't A Fool
I got some mail about Junior after the last column asking if his start should be considered a "fool" or "fool's gold". There was a reason that Junior wasn't included. I think it's probably fairly close to reality. Just like Aurilia, things change, and this is 2005 and this is Griffey as we have to come to know him and embrace him now. His defense, to his credit, has been very good so far this season. But his "diluted" offense now is what I would call the decline of age. Every player gets there. Junior just got there at 35. He's strikes out more, his G/F ratio is at its highest since 1990, and his .280+ days are over. He's could still swat 20 or so, but as much as I like Griffey, his latest medical condition is simply called Father Time.
Bloat, Bloat, Bloat
There really aren't words to shape how the Reds bloatpen makes me feel. The amalgam that comprises 11.25M of the payroll currently sports a 6.01 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, a BB/9 of 4.8, and opponents are hitting .294 against them. I give up--no backhanded joke or verbal malaise will suffice, so I'm just sit quietly and reflect. What happened to the days of Scott Sullivan, Stan Belinda, even Chuck McElroy? Hall of Famers none of them, but at they ate innings effectively and--Got. People. Out. Danny Graves was upset after getting booed off the mound in only his first blown save of the year. The reason for all the boos was that fans were saving them up from the previous 8 saves when he turned their stomaches but stumbled to the save. It's hard to boo after a win, no matter the path to victory.
Soft Tosses
Graves will not be replaced at closer any time soon. Regardless of how you (and I) feel, he still has a 88% save rate. Ramon Ortiz is back in the rotation. Yawn. Two IP, 7 hits, and 6 ER don't exactly do it for me, how about you? Aaron Harang has had 3 superior starts out of 5. Are the 99% or you in mixed leagues who don't own him yet still need starting pitching listening? Are the 6.7% of you in mixed leagues who instead own Eric Milton and his 5.79 ERA and 11 HR in 32.2 IP listening? Inside Ryan Freel's line on 4/30: 2 BB, 3 SB despite an 0-3 day--exactly the kind of potential that shows you why you can use the fantasy versatile Freel. Tough homestand--STL, LA, and SD--but the Reds are 7-4 at home. 3-11 on the road. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.
