Tuesday, June 28, 2005
The Other Shoe Drops
COO John Allen put his foot down with a surprise trip to Colorado June 5th to tell the Reds that something had to change. Something did--Dave Miley was fired. And this just in--the Reds will still stink. Miley didn't do anything wrong by this team. They scored and scored to no avail and the pitching just itches of Rocky Mountain Fever. Sure, Miley wasn't the greatest situational game manager, but he did a pretty good job at managing his personnel. If anything, he was a little too good to the players--which in turn, caused a bit of ruckus when he did try to impart a little discipline by removing the massage chairs of Ken Griffey and Adam Dunn from the clubhouse. Dunn wouldn't shut up the local media about it, even changing his at-bat music to George Strait's "The Chair."
In the end, Miley was only partly to blame. It's true that he really didn't have control of the team near the end. He and Gullett got even less out of a pitching staff capable of giving them very little in the first place, but as they say, you can't fire the players (ah, but if you could…), so, alas, Miley must go to give the impression of a change in direction. But don't be fooled--it won't be. This team, because of how absolutely terrible this collective of arms is, will (and should) sit in the cellar of the NL Central for the rest of the year. I know that Pittsburgh and Milwaukee have a bad rep for always being terrible, but make no mistake, both of those clubs have better teams that the Reds. The Bucs don't have much of an offense, but they do have Oliver Perez and Mark Redman.
So How About Those Bats?
No, the AAA affiliate in Louisville, although those guys are at least close to .500 baseball. Well, in case you hadn't noticed, Felipe Lopez is for real now. The .301 average is legit, although he'll need to keep improving on those Ks if he wants to do it every year. The power has always been there. He's making much better contact than he ever has in the majors and his minors history shows he can continue. Remember, he's only 25 and he's got a bright future in front of him now (including a probable All-Star appearance). There might be some owners who think that he's playing over his head. Find them. He's not. Felipe's finally ready. Despite being on the DL, see his average down to .287 with only 9 RBI, Ryan Freel has 21 SB and a .406 OBP, so he's another prime target.
What you're seeing from Griffey is what you're going to continue to get. Griff has always been a consistent producer when he's healthy, it's just that not too many of us remember what that's like. I've said it multiple times before, New Griffey isn't as good as All-Century Griffey, but age gets us all and it's still good production for a 35-year-old. Sean Casey will probably hit .330+ this year. Sure the HRs are down, but that happen when your G/F ratio is 2.00. Last year, when he mashed 24 HR, it was 1.33--the lowest of his career. Interesting note about Casey--he's hit into 18 DPs already this year (most in NL). His career high is 19 ('03). He could pass that by the All-Star Break. Wily Mo Pena has struck out at least 1 in all but 2 games this month. His .275 will drop.
The Red Cross: Wilson is a Castaway
With just 1 win in '05, Paul Wilson hasn't been much more helpful to the Reds than, say, a volleyball to keep the players company, and now he'll miss the rest of the season. While you won't miss him for your fantasy needs, the replacement the Reds will use for the remainder of the year (Luke Hudson), probably won't fare much better. Thus far, he's looked below average in his 4 starts; 7 ER @ CLE isn't a good sign. There isn't any help in AAA, either, unless you count Elizardo Ramirez, who didn't shine in his time with the big club. He's also only 22 and obviously needs more time in the minors, although it's not really clear whether or not he'll ever be dominant enough to pitch successfully at the MLB level. Josh Hancock's rehab ERA is 10.34 in 3 starts, so don't look for him back yet.
Kearns Making Noises in Louisville
Although Austin Kearns is "having a good time" in AAA, he did tell the Dayton Daily News that "there comes a time when you want to get established with a team and play every day" and wouldn't be opposed to going elsewhere to be able to do that. Well, despite the fact that he's hitting .333 in Louisville, that doesn't count toward his emaciated .224 average in Cincinnati and walking 18 times compared to fanning 50 times is hardly "establishing" oneself, but I get what he meant, I suppose. The article went on to say that the Reds don't answer trade queries for Kearns despite the apparent interest of several teams (Altanta, Washington, Chicago Cubs). Kearns has done little to prove he'll contribute anywhere in '05, but if he makes a move, keep an eye on him.
Looking Up
The Reds have managed 6-10 in facing a rough stretch of contending teams (BAL, BOS, ATL, STL, CLE) and are putting more runs on the board than everyone in the NL but St. Louis, but they've now passed Coloardo in runs allowed and lead the NL with 441. That is on a pace for 952 allowed for the year. Only 3 NL teams have ever allowed that many runs in a single season, and none of those were outside of Colorado ('93, '96, '99 Rockies). Please drop any Reds pitcher you have now. Enjoy the hitters all you like, but get rid of any Reds who walks near a mound (except for Aaron Harang). Vern Ruhle has seen the ERA of every staff that he's coached go up, so that's the only thing looking up as far as the pitching's concerned. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.
In the end, Miley was only partly to blame. It's true that he really didn't have control of the team near the end. He and Gullett got even less out of a pitching staff capable of giving them very little in the first place, but as they say, you can't fire the players (ah, but if you could…), so, alas, Miley must go to give the impression of a change in direction. But don't be fooled--it won't be. This team, because of how absolutely terrible this collective of arms is, will (and should) sit in the cellar of the NL Central for the rest of the year. I know that Pittsburgh and Milwaukee have a bad rep for always being terrible, but make no mistake, both of those clubs have better teams that the Reds. The Bucs don't have much of an offense, but they do have Oliver Perez and Mark Redman.
So How About Those Bats?
No, the AAA affiliate in Louisville, although those guys are at least close to .500 baseball. Well, in case you hadn't noticed, Felipe Lopez is for real now. The .301 average is legit, although he'll need to keep improving on those Ks if he wants to do it every year. The power has always been there. He's making much better contact than he ever has in the majors and his minors history shows he can continue. Remember, he's only 25 and he's got a bright future in front of him now (including a probable All-Star appearance). There might be some owners who think that he's playing over his head. Find them. He's not. Felipe's finally ready. Despite being on the DL, see his average down to .287 with only 9 RBI, Ryan Freel has 21 SB and a .406 OBP, so he's another prime target.
What you're seeing from Griffey is what you're going to continue to get. Griff has always been a consistent producer when he's healthy, it's just that not too many of us remember what that's like. I've said it multiple times before, New Griffey isn't as good as All-Century Griffey, but age gets us all and it's still good production for a 35-year-old. Sean Casey will probably hit .330+ this year. Sure the HRs are down, but that happen when your G/F ratio is 2.00. Last year, when he mashed 24 HR, it was 1.33--the lowest of his career. Interesting note about Casey--he's hit into 18 DPs already this year (most in NL). His career high is 19 ('03). He could pass that by the All-Star Break. Wily Mo Pena has struck out at least 1 in all but 2 games this month. His .275 will drop.
The Red Cross: Wilson is a Castaway
With just 1 win in '05, Paul Wilson hasn't been much more helpful to the Reds than, say, a volleyball to keep the players company, and now he'll miss the rest of the season. While you won't miss him for your fantasy needs, the replacement the Reds will use for the remainder of the year (Luke Hudson), probably won't fare much better. Thus far, he's looked below average in his 4 starts; 7 ER @ CLE isn't a good sign. There isn't any help in AAA, either, unless you count Elizardo Ramirez, who didn't shine in his time with the big club. He's also only 22 and obviously needs more time in the minors, although it's not really clear whether or not he'll ever be dominant enough to pitch successfully at the MLB level. Josh Hancock's rehab ERA is 10.34 in 3 starts, so don't look for him back yet.
Kearns Making Noises in Louisville
Although Austin Kearns is "having a good time" in AAA, he did tell the Dayton Daily News that "there comes a time when you want to get established with a team and play every day" and wouldn't be opposed to going elsewhere to be able to do that. Well, despite the fact that he's hitting .333 in Louisville, that doesn't count toward his emaciated .224 average in Cincinnati and walking 18 times compared to fanning 50 times is hardly "establishing" oneself, but I get what he meant, I suppose. The article went on to say that the Reds don't answer trade queries for Kearns despite the apparent interest of several teams (Altanta, Washington, Chicago Cubs). Kearns has done little to prove he'll contribute anywhere in '05, but if he makes a move, keep an eye on him.
Looking Up
The Reds have managed 6-10 in facing a rough stretch of contending teams (BAL, BOS, ATL, STL, CLE) and are putting more runs on the board than everyone in the NL but St. Louis, but they've now passed Coloardo in runs allowed and lead the NL with 441. That is on a pace for 952 allowed for the year. Only 3 NL teams have ever allowed that many runs in a single season, and none of those were outside of Colorado ('93, '96, '99 Rockies). Please drop any Reds pitcher you have now. Enjoy the hitters all you like, but get rid of any Reds who walks near a mound (except for Aaron Harang). Vern Ruhle has seen the ERA of every staff that he's coached go up, so that's the only thing looking up as far as the pitching's concerned. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.
Tuesday, June 14, 2005
Knowing When to Say When
I have a really hard time eating potato chips. I can't stop. Doesn't matter what kind--corn, tortilla, wavy--I can't stop once I've opened the bag until I'm absolutely stuffed. My wife either puts them in a sandwich bag now or puts a portion on my plate at dinnertime and declares the cabinet closed for business. It's just something about potato chips. For the Reds, Austin Kearns was their potato chips. Full of salty potential, cheesy goodness, and vivid taste, they just keep letting him hit and hit until it became bad for the team. GM Danny Boy has now officially closed the cabinet for business and sent Kearns to Louisville. And if Austin doesn't get it together down there, he's not coming back. I know that makes Reds fans and his owners very disappointed, but it's the right move.
What went wrong? Kearns was a 1st round pick. How did he get from potential Rookie of the Year candidate in 2002 to the abysmal hitter he is today? Well, he stopped making contact, for one. Contact %--'01 (AA): 84, '02: 79, '03: 77, '04: 70, '05: 71. He also started pressing at the plate, abandoning patience. BB/K ratio: '02: 0.70, '03: 0.60, '04: 0.48, '05: 0.36. These are trends that are very disturbing. I realize he's been injured, but he doesn't have that excuse any more and he's also got much more experience now. His bat still has occasional power, but with the lack of hitting skills, he becomes a dime a dozen. I like Kearns (even though I've said the Reds should've traded him 2 years in a row), but he's got to make a readjustment to ever be a quality major leaguer.
Freed Wily
Now that Kearns is gone, Pena will play everyday in RF--as long as he can stay healthy. With the quad issue that kept him out a month and now a sore knee, that's apparently no small task. He teased us all again with his 2 HR game vs. TB, but it's at least nice to know that the PT issue is out of the way for the immediate future. I recommend Wily Mo highly for those in need of power. I don't think this .313 AVG will hold, but the fact that he hits the ball so incredibly hard does give him a better chance of reaching base. Right now Wily Mo is hitting a HR just about 1 in every 8 ABs. That's all-world. With good health, it will be interesting to see how he responds with no one pushing him from the bench. We may be close to the coronation of a new megapower slugger.
A Full Plate
What's very cool is that the Reds have only scored 4 runs less than St. Louis' 323, which leads the NL in production. They've scored more runs that 25 of MLB's 30 teams. With Dunn, Griffey, Lopez, Casey, Freel, and Randa all having solid years (and oh,yeah, Wily Mo's back), the bell chimes often when the Reds have the sticks in hand. Only the STL, BOS, BAL, and TEX have scored more. In 9 of the Reds' last 10 wins, they've scored at least 9 runs. It's a good time to have a Reds hitter. What's inherently depressing about this is that they're still in last place and only the Giants and Rockies have worse records in the NL. Only the Devil Rays and Rockies have surrendered more runs. This of course should lead to a discussion on the pitching, but I'm afraid I'd start crying.
Saves?
Since Graves went bye-bye, the Reds have only recorded 2 (both by David Weathers). DW looks to be the best bet for the role right now, although Miley has repeatedly said that he'll basically go with whomever he feels like at the moment. That means that Ryan Wagner (who's been the topic of mucho mail) will probably get a few looks as well as Kent Mercker. None of these really have what it takes to be a closer (or in Wagner's case, at least not yet), so don't be surprised to see a lot of shifting and maneuvering in save situations. What'd I do if I were a fantasy owner (wait--I am) is just avoid the Reds bullpen altogether in terms of saves. I've made that recommendation before and I won't change it. Wagner's good for middle relief, but take any saves of his as dessert topping.
The Red Cross: Arms and More Arms
Paul Wilson is still coming back rather slowly from shoulder trouble, not that many owners miss him. There isn't a timetable, but his numbers are replaceable in any league. Luke Hudson got his first start of the year on Thursday and looked…not too hot, actually. He did go 6, but didn't fan a single batter, walked 4 and gave up 5 ER. Not anything you'd want your family to see, for sure. Josh Hancock fared even worse in his first rehab start in Louisville--4.1 IP, 10 ER. Sheesh. He followed that up with 5 IP, 4 ER. It could be a while before we see him again as well, but like Wilson, his numbers can be found anywhere (not that you'd look for numbers like that). Anderson Machado and Rey Olmedo will begin rehab stints soon, but with Lopez's play, they've got nowhere to contribute.
Nothing to Lose
I know the Reds are terrible, but I've got to say that for the first time since O'Brien became GM, I'm really starting to respect the moves that Danny Boy is making. I didn't really malign them before--I just wasn't that impressed. The Reds have nowhere to go but up and making the atypical move here and there (i.e. Graves, Jimenez, Kearns) can't do much to make it worse. A tip of the cap to O'Brien for not firing Miley yet too. This certainly isn't all his fault. Quick note--the last time Sean Casey struck out was May 22. And still people are surprised that he hits .324. With the G/F ratio at 1.9, we won't be seeing many HRs, but we could see .340. Here's something else--the Reds hit 17 HR in this 6-game homestand. Wow. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.
What went wrong? Kearns was a 1st round pick. How did he get from potential Rookie of the Year candidate in 2002 to the abysmal hitter he is today? Well, he stopped making contact, for one. Contact %--'01 (AA): 84, '02: 79, '03: 77, '04: 70, '05: 71. He also started pressing at the plate, abandoning patience. BB/K ratio: '02: 0.70, '03: 0.60, '04: 0.48, '05: 0.36. These are trends that are very disturbing. I realize he's been injured, but he doesn't have that excuse any more and he's also got much more experience now. His bat still has occasional power, but with the lack of hitting skills, he becomes a dime a dozen. I like Kearns (even though I've said the Reds should've traded him 2 years in a row), but he's got to make a readjustment to ever be a quality major leaguer.
Freed Wily
Now that Kearns is gone, Pena will play everyday in RF--as long as he can stay healthy. With the quad issue that kept him out a month and now a sore knee, that's apparently no small task. He teased us all again with his 2 HR game vs. TB, but it's at least nice to know that the PT issue is out of the way for the immediate future. I recommend Wily Mo highly for those in need of power. I don't think this .313 AVG will hold, but the fact that he hits the ball so incredibly hard does give him a better chance of reaching base. Right now Wily Mo is hitting a HR just about 1 in every 8 ABs. That's all-world. With good health, it will be interesting to see how he responds with no one pushing him from the bench. We may be close to the coronation of a new megapower slugger.
A Full Plate
What's very cool is that the Reds have only scored 4 runs less than St. Louis' 323, which leads the NL in production. They've scored more runs that 25 of MLB's 30 teams. With Dunn, Griffey, Lopez, Casey, Freel, and Randa all having solid years (and oh,yeah, Wily Mo's back), the bell chimes often when the Reds have the sticks in hand. Only the STL, BOS, BAL, and TEX have scored more. In 9 of the Reds' last 10 wins, they've scored at least 9 runs. It's a good time to have a Reds hitter. What's inherently depressing about this is that they're still in last place and only the Giants and Rockies have worse records in the NL. Only the Devil Rays and Rockies have surrendered more runs. This of course should lead to a discussion on the pitching, but I'm afraid I'd start crying.
Saves?
Since Graves went bye-bye, the Reds have only recorded 2 (both by David Weathers). DW looks to be the best bet for the role right now, although Miley has repeatedly said that he'll basically go with whomever he feels like at the moment. That means that Ryan Wagner (who's been the topic of mucho mail) will probably get a few looks as well as Kent Mercker. None of these really have what it takes to be a closer (or in Wagner's case, at least not yet), so don't be surprised to see a lot of shifting and maneuvering in save situations. What'd I do if I were a fantasy owner (wait--I am) is just avoid the Reds bullpen altogether in terms of saves. I've made that recommendation before and I won't change it. Wagner's good for middle relief, but take any saves of his as dessert topping.
The Red Cross: Arms and More Arms
Paul Wilson is still coming back rather slowly from shoulder trouble, not that many owners miss him. There isn't a timetable, but his numbers are replaceable in any league. Luke Hudson got his first start of the year on Thursday and looked…not too hot, actually. He did go 6, but didn't fan a single batter, walked 4 and gave up 5 ER. Not anything you'd want your family to see, for sure. Josh Hancock fared even worse in his first rehab start in Louisville--4.1 IP, 10 ER. Sheesh. He followed that up with 5 IP, 4 ER. It could be a while before we see him again as well, but like Wilson, his numbers can be found anywhere (not that you'd look for numbers like that). Anderson Machado and Rey Olmedo will begin rehab stints soon, but with Lopez's play, they've got nowhere to contribute.
Nothing to Lose
I know the Reds are terrible, but I've got to say that for the first time since O'Brien became GM, I'm really starting to respect the moves that Danny Boy is making. I didn't really malign them before--I just wasn't that impressed. The Reds have nowhere to go but up and making the atypical move here and there (i.e. Graves, Jimenez, Kearns) can't do much to make it worse. A tip of the cap to O'Brien for not firing Miley yet too. This certainly isn't all his fault. Quick note--the last time Sean Casey struck out was May 22. And still people are surprised that he hits .324. With the G/F ratio at 1.9, we won't be seeing many HRs, but we could see .340. Here's something else--the Reds hit 17 HR in this 6-game homestand. Wow. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.
Wednesday, June 08, 2005
Tied in Knots
When Chief Operating Officer John Allen got out of bed Sunday morning and tied his Windsor knot, boarded a plane, and headed for Colorado, he had a mission. Now, I'm no Boy Scout, but I know his mission wasn’t to show up in the visitor's clubhouse at Coors Field and practice any Friendship or Flower Knots with Reds players or Dave Miley. It was to deliver a message that the way the Reds have been playing as of late "isn't acceptable". He sure left many Reds' stomachs tied in knots for Sunday's game (an 8-6 loss). The Reds and their coaches now have a mission of their own--either tie up some wins quickly or they will be feeling another more well-known and ominous knot around their seasons--a noose. So what's gone so wrong this year for the Reds? Heh--what's knot?
Offseason Review: Take 2
I got torched in my inbox after taking a rather negative look at the Reds offseason moves earlier in the spring (one reader told me I wasn't a "true fan"--I guess he wanted to hear the Reds would win the Series). Well, let's breakdown those moves (again) two months into the season. Eric Milton: 21 HR, 65 IP, 7.06 ERA. 25 mil well spent, huh? Ben Weber: 8.00+ ERA, 0.8 K/BB, DL (which is actually a blessing). David Weathers: 4.60 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 1.7 K/BB. Kent Mercker: 2.19 ERA, but only 4.7 K/9. Ramon Ortiz: 5.23 ERA, 1-4 record, 1.8 K/BB. Rich Aurilia: .216 AVG, .649 OPS. Joe Randa: .294 AVG, .824 OPS, 6 HR. The fan base in Cincinnati was excited that ownership decided to up the payroll by 15 million. Free tacos for fans would've been a better investment.
Twenty five mil over 3 years to Milton for a guy who can't even keep it in the ballpark? His K/9 is down to 5.3, so don't expect him to get it together soon. Opposing batters are hitting .312 against him. That's pathetic. He's had bad luck, but hasn't pitched well all year. Ben Weber was tossed from a AAA ball club last year. Enough said--at least it should've been. Weathers isn't terrible, but he's not a 1.25 million pitcher. Mercker actually hasn't done that bad, but with a 4.7 K/9 he's had some luck. He is keeping it in the park though. Ramon Ortiz was a ridiculously bad sign at 3.55 M. He can occasionally throw a decent game every now and then, but so can loads of cheaper arms. Joe Randa was good (even though the Reds didn't need him). Aurilia? Yuck. Twice.
The Red Cross: Full Beds
Wily Mo Pena is starting to heat up in AAA. His average is up to .292 with a HR and 4 RBI. He should be ready soon, and as I've said, he'll play early because Austin Kearns is absolutely stinking up the joint. Even if Wily Mo's got rust coming out of his armpits, he'll no doubt hit better than Kearns' .225. Let me just say this--Austin Kearns career is in trouble right now. Luke Hudson had a pretty good start in AA but did get knocked around a little (6.2 IP, 6 H, 7 K, 1 BB, 4 ER). He'll be back sooner rather than later. Josh Hancock threw a simulated game on Friday and the Reds are looking at getting him a rehab start very soon. Stay tuned. Paul Wilson tossed the ball around at GABP on Sunday. He'll continue to progress along as quickly as his shoulder will allow.
Say What?
Rich Aurilia has had an awful '05. He's been hot lately, but too late to keep his everyday job. Overall, he's been a huge (but unsurprising) flop. "I just wasn't getting any luck. Balls were going right at people," he told the Reds official site about his earlier play. Okay, yeah, he's had some bad luck (26% hit rate) that led to his .216 AVG. But if you gave him a 30% hit rate, which was his average from '02-'04, he'd still be hitting only .250. Not exactly world class. On Sunday, Adam Dunn said Allen's visit would "hopefully get some people's attention", according to the Dayton Daily News. After a .200 AVG and 34 Ks in May, maybe he should pay attention too instead of poking at Miley through the media after Miley removed his massage chair from the clubhouse.
Temperature Check
HOT: Felipe Lopez continues to tear it up, hitting .348 over the last week. With the highest NL SS OPS so far, he should be at the All-Star Game. Rich Aurilia has 2 HR, 5 RBI, and a .313 AVG this past week. Don't bite--it won't hold. Ken Griffey is still quieting putting up good numbers this year. He's only behind Dunn in HR and leads the team by 8 in RBI. COLD: On the cooler side of things lies Captain Cold himself (all due respects to The Flash), Austin Kearns. He's 3 for his last 18. Right now his only redeeming value is a significant BB% (which doesn't help in too many fantasy leagues) and an occasional burst of power. Everything else is F-L-A-T. Ryan Freel is also under .200 for the last week (.154), but he really is hitting the ball right at people. Have patience with him.
Who Said It Couldn’t Get Worse?
Ownership is upset, the Reds are in last, the manager who last led the Reds to a World Series is in town (on another team), and after that 3-game set with Tampa, the Reds get Baltimore, Boston, Atlanta, and St. Louis--all division leaders or contenders. Now would be a good time to get in the bathtub with some pillows and a radio, because I have a feeling things are about to get really stormy. Remember all those thrilling wins in the Reds' final AB over the last couple of seasons? This year, they are 1-30 when trailing after 7 innings. The Reds have scored more runs than everyone in the NL Central except St. Louis. How are they in last? 321 runs allowed--only less than Colorado's 332 in the NL. SERENITY NOW! I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.
Offseason Review: Take 2
I got torched in my inbox after taking a rather negative look at the Reds offseason moves earlier in the spring (one reader told me I wasn't a "true fan"--I guess he wanted to hear the Reds would win the Series). Well, let's breakdown those moves (again) two months into the season. Eric Milton: 21 HR, 65 IP, 7.06 ERA. 25 mil well spent, huh? Ben Weber: 8.00+ ERA, 0.8 K/BB, DL (which is actually a blessing). David Weathers: 4.60 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 1.7 K/BB. Kent Mercker: 2.19 ERA, but only 4.7 K/9. Ramon Ortiz: 5.23 ERA, 1-4 record, 1.8 K/BB. Rich Aurilia: .216 AVG, .649 OPS. Joe Randa: .294 AVG, .824 OPS, 6 HR. The fan base in Cincinnati was excited that ownership decided to up the payroll by 15 million. Free tacos for fans would've been a better investment.
Twenty five mil over 3 years to Milton for a guy who can't even keep it in the ballpark? His K/9 is down to 5.3, so don't expect him to get it together soon. Opposing batters are hitting .312 against him. That's pathetic. He's had bad luck, but hasn't pitched well all year. Ben Weber was tossed from a AAA ball club last year. Enough said--at least it should've been. Weathers isn't terrible, but he's not a 1.25 million pitcher. Mercker actually hasn't done that bad, but with a 4.7 K/9 he's had some luck. He is keeping it in the park though. Ramon Ortiz was a ridiculously bad sign at 3.55 M. He can occasionally throw a decent game every now and then, but so can loads of cheaper arms. Joe Randa was good (even though the Reds didn't need him). Aurilia? Yuck. Twice.
The Red Cross: Full Beds
Wily Mo Pena is starting to heat up in AAA. His average is up to .292 with a HR and 4 RBI. He should be ready soon, and as I've said, he'll play early because Austin Kearns is absolutely stinking up the joint. Even if Wily Mo's got rust coming out of his armpits, he'll no doubt hit better than Kearns' .225. Let me just say this--Austin Kearns career is in trouble right now. Luke Hudson had a pretty good start in AA but did get knocked around a little (6.2 IP, 6 H, 7 K, 1 BB, 4 ER). He'll be back sooner rather than later. Josh Hancock threw a simulated game on Friday and the Reds are looking at getting him a rehab start very soon. Stay tuned. Paul Wilson tossed the ball around at GABP on Sunday. He'll continue to progress along as quickly as his shoulder will allow.
Say What?
Rich Aurilia has had an awful '05. He's been hot lately, but too late to keep his everyday job. Overall, he's been a huge (but unsurprising) flop. "I just wasn't getting any luck. Balls were going right at people," he told the Reds official site about his earlier play. Okay, yeah, he's had some bad luck (26% hit rate) that led to his .216 AVG. But if you gave him a 30% hit rate, which was his average from '02-'04, he'd still be hitting only .250. Not exactly world class. On Sunday, Adam Dunn said Allen's visit would "hopefully get some people's attention", according to the Dayton Daily News. After a .200 AVG and 34 Ks in May, maybe he should pay attention too instead of poking at Miley through the media after Miley removed his massage chair from the clubhouse.
Temperature Check
HOT: Felipe Lopez continues to tear it up, hitting .348 over the last week. With the highest NL SS OPS so far, he should be at the All-Star Game. Rich Aurilia has 2 HR, 5 RBI, and a .313 AVG this past week. Don't bite--it won't hold. Ken Griffey is still quieting putting up good numbers this year. He's only behind Dunn in HR and leads the team by 8 in RBI. COLD: On the cooler side of things lies Captain Cold himself (all due respects to The Flash), Austin Kearns. He's 3 for his last 18. Right now his only redeeming value is a significant BB% (which doesn't help in too many fantasy leagues) and an occasional burst of power. Everything else is F-L-A-T. Ryan Freel is also under .200 for the last week (.154), but he really is hitting the ball right at people. Have patience with him.
Who Said It Couldn’t Get Worse?
Ownership is upset, the Reds are in last, the manager who last led the Reds to a World Series is in town (on another team), and after that 3-game set with Tampa, the Reds get Baltimore, Boston, Atlanta, and St. Louis--all division leaders or contenders. Now would be a good time to get in the bathtub with some pillows and a radio, because I have a feeling things are about to get really stormy. Remember all those thrilling wins in the Reds' final AB over the last couple of seasons? This year, they are 1-30 when trailing after 7 innings. The Reds have scored more runs than everyone in the NL Central except St. Louis. How are they in last? 321 runs allowed--only less than Colorado's 332 in the NL. SERENITY NOW! I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.
Thursday, June 02, 2005
Bizarro Reds
I leave the country for a little over a week, excited about my new marriage but resigned to the fact that the Reds will be the same stinky, underperforming, undermanaged dreck when I return, and Danny Boy & Co. decide to turn conventional Reds wisdom on its head. Huge moves. Danny Graves--bye bye. D'Angelo Jimenez--AA's that way. Felipe Lopez ties his career high in HR in MAY, and he's hitting almost .300. Ryan Freel is solidified in the starting lineup and getting long overdue credit. Am I back in the same country, the same world, the same existence? Okay, yeah, the Reds still stink--that's not new at all. The way things look, they could really end up dead last in the NL Central (Houston won't be this bad all year). You know what, though? These new Reds? I like 'em.
Turn 2
Although fantasy geeks (including myself) would still like to see Freel get the occastional day in the OF or at 3B, the fact that he's basically the everyday option at 2B is victory for his talent and his owners. More than 30 SBs is almost a certainty now along with a real shot at 40. An average of .300 also isn't out of the question with an outstanding .429 OBP and a BB/K ratio of 1.41. Enjoy it. As for Lopez, we discussed the power surge (which is over his head but not completely unsubstantiated). He could finish with high teen HRs in a full-time role. The average will come down, but he's past his career .243 AVG days now. Don't expect nearly the same speed from Felipe as you'd get from Freel--they're in 2 different leagues there. I'd add him in a deep league--SS is his to lose.
Any Closer to a Closer?
The Reds haven't had a closer all year (even before the release of Graves) and they don't have one now that he's gone either. But the short answer is probably no. There have been 2 save opportunities since Graves' departure--1 went to Weathers, who converted, and one went to Wagner, who didn't. Miley could choose to go with Weathers or put the eggs in Wagner's basket early, which is want most fans want anyway. Mercker could even get a few. To me, Wagner just isn't a closer yet. Make no mistake--he will be. He will be a super closer, just like I will be 30 some day. Right now, I'm thankfully still in my 20's and Ryan Wagner has still just logged 99.1 career MLB innings. The Reds won't compete in '05. No reason to rush Wagner. Give him 1 occasionally and bide your time. We'll see.
I Don't Miss Jose Guillen Anymore
When the Reds opened up the Great American Flea Market to the Firesale of 2003 that saw names like Aaron Boone and Jose Guillen hit the road, I was screaming at the trees, "Don't trade Jose Guillen! Trade Griffey! Kearns! The new mascot Gapper (still think the Reds should ship him out)!" But, of course, the Reds sent Guillen to Oakland for Aaron Harang and spare parts. I still miss Jose Guillen, but they really got something special in return on this deal. Aaron Harang's ERA is 2.97 despite just 4 wins. His K/9 is 7.7 and his K/BB is 3.0. Aaron Harang is for real, people, and still available in 60% of mixed leagues. This is your last chance to get in on Harang. A few more gems like Monday (7 IP, 10 K) and you'll be too late.
The Red Cross
Wily Mo Pena is finally doing a minor league rehab stint in Louisville after being out entirely too long with a quad issue. He fanned in his first 2 AAA ABs, so it may be a little bit before he's up to speed. Don't be surprised to see him in the lineup when he finally returns though--Austin Kearns is still just absolutely awful. Rich Aurilia is back but not in time to save his job at SS. He'll be in the Ryan Freel role, but won't have the benefit of playing OF to up his ABs. No reason to own him anyway. Paul Wilson currently has no timetable for return, but the Cincinnati Enquirer reports he's at least been tossing the ball around. As with Aurilia, you shouldn't be in a position of having to track his progress. Luke Hudson and Josh Hancock are still awaiting rehab assignments.
Eric…Colon?
Last season, Bartolo Colon was coming off a May where he had a 6.37 ERA, gave up 8 HR in 29 IP, and batters hit .289 against him. This May, Milton has fared even worse (7.29, 10 HR, .297). Colon struggled through June even worse but righted the ship to post a 12-4 record, 3.64 ERA, and .232 OBA in the 2nd half. Is there any indication that Eric Milton could be in for that kind of turnaround? I'm in a 20-team league where he is sitting right out there in the free agent pool. Sadly, I may just have to let him stay there. EM has shown no indication of keeping the ball in the park. Colon's G/F ratio was 0.91 in '04; Milton's is 0.60 in '05. That's a big difference. Milton's K/9 is 5.4. Colon's was almost 7.0. So, for now, Eric Milton's cologne smells nothing like Bartolo.
Good News is No News
Considering how much flak Ken Griffey Jr. took over his multiple injuries since becoming a Red, it's funny that 2 months into the season with Griffey having played in all but 3 games is such a non-story. Why is that? Because his numbers aren't 1997 Griffey. We loves a comeback but Griffey's has been pretty vanilla. No, 8 HR isn't bad at all, and yes, he's on pace for 100+ RBI, but the Reds are in 5th and his average is .266. Still, Griffey's playing hard and quite well for an injury-prone 35-year-old. I'd like to take a minute to applaud a player I've always wanted to see do well. He's playing every day and not saying, "Hey guys! Look at me! What about me now?" Stay in the lineup, Griff--glad to see you healthy. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.
Turn 2
Although fantasy geeks (including myself) would still like to see Freel get the occastional day in the OF or at 3B, the fact that he's basically the everyday option at 2B is victory for his talent and his owners. More than 30 SBs is almost a certainty now along with a real shot at 40. An average of .300 also isn't out of the question with an outstanding .429 OBP and a BB/K ratio of 1.41. Enjoy it. As for Lopez, we discussed the power surge (which is over his head but not completely unsubstantiated). He could finish with high teen HRs in a full-time role. The average will come down, but he's past his career .243 AVG days now. Don't expect nearly the same speed from Felipe as you'd get from Freel--they're in 2 different leagues there. I'd add him in a deep league--SS is his to lose.
Any Closer to a Closer?
The Reds haven't had a closer all year (even before the release of Graves) and they don't have one now that he's gone either. But the short answer is probably no. There have been 2 save opportunities since Graves' departure--1 went to Weathers, who converted, and one went to Wagner, who didn't. Miley could choose to go with Weathers or put the eggs in Wagner's basket early, which is want most fans want anyway. Mercker could even get a few. To me, Wagner just isn't a closer yet. Make no mistake--he will be. He will be a super closer, just like I will be 30 some day. Right now, I'm thankfully still in my 20's and Ryan Wagner has still just logged 99.1 career MLB innings. The Reds won't compete in '05. No reason to rush Wagner. Give him 1 occasionally and bide your time. We'll see.
I Don't Miss Jose Guillen Anymore
When the Reds opened up the Great American Flea Market to the Firesale of 2003 that saw names like Aaron Boone and Jose Guillen hit the road, I was screaming at the trees, "Don't trade Jose Guillen! Trade Griffey! Kearns! The new mascot Gapper (still think the Reds should ship him out)!" But, of course, the Reds sent Guillen to Oakland for Aaron Harang and spare parts. I still miss Jose Guillen, but they really got something special in return on this deal. Aaron Harang's ERA is 2.97 despite just 4 wins. His K/9 is 7.7 and his K/BB is 3.0. Aaron Harang is for real, people, and still available in 60% of mixed leagues. This is your last chance to get in on Harang. A few more gems like Monday (7 IP, 10 K) and you'll be too late.
The Red Cross
Wily Mo Pena is finally doing a minor league rehab stint in Louisville after being out entirely too long with a quad issue. He fanned in his first 2 AAA ABs, so it may be a little bit before he's up to speed. Don't be surprised to see him in the lineup when he finally returns though--Austin Kearns is still just absolutely awful. Rich Aurilia is back but not in time to save his job at SS. He'll be in the Ryan Freel role, but won't have the benefit of playing OF to up his ABs. No reason to own him anyway. Paul Wilson currently has no timetable for return, but the Cincinnati Enquirer reports he's at least been tossing the ball around. As with Aurilia, you shouldn't be in a position of having to track his progress. Luke Hudson and Josh Hancock are still awaiting rehab assignments.
Eric…Colon?
Last season, Bartolo Colon was coming off a May where he had a 6.37 ERA, gave up 8 HR in 29 IP, and batters hit .289 against him. This May, Milton has fared even worse (7.29, 10 HR, .297). Colon struggled through June even worse but righted the ship to post a 12-4 record, 3.64 ERA, and .232 OBA in the 2nd half. Is there any indication that Eric Milton could be in for that kind of turnaround? I'm in a 20-team league where he is sitting right out there in the free agent pool. Sadly, I may just have to let him stay there. EM has shown no indication of keeping the ball in the park. Colon's G/F ratio was 0.91 in '04; Milton's is 0.60 in '05. That's a big difference. Milton's K/9 is 5.4. Colon's was almost 7.0. So, for now, Eric Milton's cologne smells nothing like Bartolo.
Good News is No News
Considering how much flak Ken Griffey Jr. took over his multiple injuries since becoming a Red, it's funny that 2 months into the season with Griffey having played in all but 3 games is such a non-story. Why is that? Because his numbers aren't 1997 Griffey. We loves a comeback but Griffey's has been pretty vanilla. No, 8 HR isn't bad at all, and yes, he's on pace for 100+ RBI, but the Reds are in 5th and his average is .266. Still, Griffey's playing hard and quite well for an injury-prone 35-year-old. I'd like to take a minute to applaud a player I've always wanted to see do well. He's playing every day and not saying, "Hey guys! Look at me! What about me now?" Stay in the lineup, Griff--glad to see you healthy. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.
