Saturday, March 26, 2005
Draft/Season Preview Vol. 3
Let's look at some numbers. We don't have Sesame Street's Count or any fancy jingles, but let's look anyway. How about these three? 5.23. Uh, what was the 2004 Reds starting pitching ERA? Yes! Okay, I'll take "Rotations Only Marginally Better Than the Colorado Rockies" for $400, please. The answer: 1.49. I know! What was ’04 Reds rotation WHIP? Yes. Uh…$600. The answer: .832. Matt again. What was ’04 Reds rotation opponent OPS? Exactly! The board is yours!…Okay, I'm no Ken Jennings, but those questions were easy--and sad. Is there anyone who can put a stop to opponents bombing out the Ohio River marine life? There are old & new names in the rotation. Can the results be any different or are the Reds in Jeopardy (yeah, yeah)? Let's take a look at the category:
$200: Paul Wilson
Who is the Reds Opening Day starter? Wilson is indeed facing off against Pedro and the Mets on 4/4, coming off a career high in wins (11) and a career low in ERA in years with 100+ IP (4.36). Will he improve again? Can he help anchor this shaky rotation? The good news is his work ethic is unquestionable. He works meat off the bone preparing for the mound. His K/9 did rise in '04 (5.7) and he's always had slightly better than average control. The bad news is this--he's had real trouble the last 4 seasons keeping the ball in the yard (1.3 HR/9 '01-'04). Also, even with improvement, his skills are just enough to get the job done but not enough to be a #1, #2, or maybe even a #3. BOTTOM LINE: A definite gamer, but for a guy who's probably at his peak, he's remarkably bland. I'd pass.
$400: Eric Milton
Who is the Reds “big-name” $$$ free agent who could do very well but will do very little to save those fishies in the Ohio (In reality, it would take a prodigious 550+ blast to even ruffle any gills, but Adam Dunn has bounced one in). I opposed this signing earlier and while I won't really change my tune, Milton does have the potential to have a pretty good year. He's gonna give up at least 30 HRs doing it, but if they're mostly solo, who knows? His K/9 is solid (7.2), but his control was the worst it's been since his rookie season. Granted, it was better in the 2nd half (4.1 vs. 2.8 BB/9). BOTTOM LINE: He just throws too many flyballs. That's won't work at GABP, just as it didn't in Philly. He's worthy of filling the back end of you rotation--but be ready for the moon shots.
$600: Ramon Ortiz
Who is the overpaid starter most likely to end up pitching out of the bullpen? Honestly, I can see the Milton signing. He's got game, he just can't keep the ball in the yard. But to just give Ortiz a free pass into the rotation (and pay him 3.55 mil) is not, uh, fiscally responsible. I would get laughed at if I bought a $200 ham sandwich, but Reds fans won't be laughing if pricey Ortiz posts another 5.47 ERA as a starter as he did in for the Angels in '04. Reliever ERA? 2.76. More K/9 out of the pen, less HR/9. Another fly ball pitcher who's had 5 straight years of 1.1-1.7 HR/9 (for reference, 1.1 is average and under 1.0 is what gets it done). BOTTOM LINE: He's a good reliever or a spot starter--NOT a #3. Plus, lefties absolutely mash him (.305 OBA in '04). Stay away.
$800: Aaron Harang
Who is the under-the-radar starter that could end up having the best season of anyone on staff? I like Aaron Harang. He's a horse. He's 27. He's growing into his talents. He only had 4 bad starts all of last year. His flyball % has come down two years in a row. Having to compete for a spot this year, he's got something to prove. He's got 3 years and 58 starts under his belt now. Sure, it's a small sample, but he's got a 3.18 ERA with 16 K/2 BB this spring in 22.2 IP. There's a lot to like. The caveat? 1.5 HR/9 in '04. 4 HR given up this spring. He (like the others) has got to keep the ball in the park. BOTTOM LINE: Harang has the skills. Period. If he can continue to lower his flyball %, HRs should drop and watch out. He'll be there late and could reap rewards.
$1000: DAILY DOUBLE! Josh Hancock and Brandon Claussen
Luke Hudson will start on the DL, so I'm skipping him for now. Hancock is 27 like Harang, and I know he went 5-1 down the stretch last year, but drafting this H might cause fantasy roster irritation that would leave you in need of Preparation H. During that '04 stint, his K was 5.0 and it has dropped at every new level to which Hancock has been promoted. Claussen, like Hancock, has seen his K/9 drop every year until last when he was coming off arm surgery, but that time out put him behind in development and he needs more time to mature. Right now he walks way too many and has an unseemly tendency to get rocked. BOTTOM LINE: Leave these guys alone for now, but know that Claussen could be a certifiable target within 2 years. Right now, he's got some work to do.
Spring Notes and Vol. 4
Wily Mo Pena has forgotten to bring his jersey to the last 2 road games, but he's recalling how to rake, going 8 for his last 14. Dunn has only whiffed 9 of 49 ABs this spring (78 ct%), and while that's marked improvement, wait to see it in the season to give it any legitimacy. Joe Randa has 3 bombs and 3 doubles, slugging .548. That's good to hear, but remember that he hasn't slugged higher than .452 since ‘99. Don't expect it to last, though his flyball % was the highest it's been since ‘99 also. The last volume of your Preview will take a look at the bullpen, which has the potential to be the Cincy's worst in years, but even so there still a couple of high risk/decent rewards hurlers available. And don't forget vulture wins! I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.
$200: Paul Wilson
Who is the Reds Opening Day starter? Wilson is indeed facing off against Pedro and the Mets on 4/4, coming off a career high in wins (11) and a career low in ERA in years with 100+ IP (4.36). Will he improve again? Can he help anchor this shaky rotation? The good news is his work ethic is unquestionable. He works meat off the bone preparing for the mound. His K/9 did rise in '04 (5.7) and he's always had slightly better than average control. The bad news is this--he's had real trouble the last 4 seasons keeping the ball in the yard (1.3 HR/9 '01-'04). Also, even with improvement, his skills are just enough to get the job done but not enough to be a #1, #2, or maybe even a #3. BOTTOM LINE: A definite gamer, but for a guy who's probably at his peak, he's remarkably bland. I'd pass.
$400: Eric Milton
Who is the Reds “big-name” $$$ free agent who could do very well but will do very little to save those fishies in the Ohio (In reality, it would take a prodigious 550+ blast to even ruffle any gills, but Adam Dunn has bounced one in). I opposed this signing earlier and while I won't really change my tune, Milton does have the potential to have a pretty good year. He's gonna give up at least 30 HRs doing it, but if they're mostly solo, who knows? His K/9 is solid (7.2), but his control was the worst it's been since his rookie season. Granted, it was better in the 2nd half (4.1 vs. 2.8 BB/9). BOTTOM LINE: He just throws too many flyballs. That's won't work at GABP, just as it didn't in Philly. He's worthy of filling the back end of you rotation--but be ready for the moon shots.
$600: Ramon Ortiz
Who is the overpaid starter most likely to end up pitching out of the bullpen? Honestly, I can see the Milton signing. He's got game, he just can't keep the ball in the yard. But to just give Ortiz a free pass into the rotation (and pay him 3.55 mil) is not, uh, fiscally responsible. I would get laughed at if I bought a $200 ham sandwich, but Reds fans won't be laughing if pricey Ortiz posts another 5.47 ERA as a starter as he did in for the Angels in '04. Reliever ERA? 2.76. More K/9 out of the pen, less HR/9. Another fly ball pitcher who's had 5 straight years of 1.1-1.7 HR/9 (for reference, 1.1 is average and under 1.0 is what gets it done). BOTTOM LINE: He's a good reliever or a spot starter--NOT a #3. Plus, lefties absolutely mash him (.305 OBA in '04). Stay away.
$800: Aaron Harang
Who is the under-the-radar starter that could end up having the best season of anyone on staff? I like Aaron Harang. He's a horse. He's 27. He's growing into his talents. He only had 4 bad starts all of last year. His flyball % has come down two years in a row. Having to compete for a spot this year, he's got something to prove. He's got 3 years and 58 starts under his belt now. Sure, it's a small sample, but he's got a 3.18 ERA with 16 K/2 BB this spring in 22.2 IP. There's a lot to like. The caveat? 1.5 HR/9 in '04. 4 HR given up this spring. He (like the others) has got to keep the ball in the park. BOTTOM LINE: Harang has the skills. Period. If he can continue to lower his flyball %, HRs should drop and watch out. He'll be there late and could reap rewards.
$1000: DAILY DOUBLE! Josh Hancock and Brandon Claussen
Luke Hudson will start on the DL, so I'm skipping him for now. Hancock is 27 like Harang, and I know he went 5-1 down the stretch last year, but drafting this H might cause fantasy roster irritation that would leave you in need of Preparation H. During that '04 stint, his K was 5.0 and it has dropped at every new level to which Hancock has been promoted. Claussen, like Hancock, has seen his K/9 drop every year until last when he was coming off arm surgery, but that time out put him behind in development and he needs more time to mature. Right now he walks way too many and has an unseemly tendency to get rocked. BOTTOM LINE: Leave these guys alone for now, but know that Claussen could be a certifiable target within 2 years. Right now, he's got some work to do.
Spring Notes and Vol. 4
Wily Mo Pena has forgotten to bring his jersey to the last 2 road games, but he's recalling how to rake, going 8 for his last 14. Dunn has only whiffed 9 of 49 ABs this spring (78 ct%), and while that's marked improvement, wait to see it in the season to give it any legitimacy. Joe Randa has 3 bombs and 3 doubles, slugging .548. That's good to hear, but remember that he hasn't slugged higher than .452 since ‘99. Don't expect it to last, though his flyball % was the highest it's been since ‘99 also. The last volume of your Preview will take a look at the bullpen, which has the potential to be the Cincy's worst in years, but even so there still a couple of high risk/decent rewards hurlers available. And don't forget vulture wins! I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.
Tuesday, March 22, 2005
Draft/Season Preview Vol. 2
As the season draws near, the Reds will make more cuts from their roster number of 41 on Tuesday, according to the team's official website, leaving them another round of cuts on March 30, with the final 25-man roster set by April 2. For now, though, they spend this week playing all AL East opponents except one (FRI @ Cleveland in Winter Haven). That includes World Champ Boston on Tuesday and the Yanks on Wednesday. We'll get to spring performance a little later, but let's break down the outfield and see what to look for and who can help you this year on your fantasy roster. For any latecomers to the infield preview, it's located at The Red Letters (theredletters.blogspot.com). You can reach me at theredletters@insightbb.com for any Reds-related inquiries.
LF: Adam Dunn
Dunn is easily the most bankable choice here and it's a good bank to do business with. Here's a flyball guy (with patience) in a flyball park who, over his 4-year career, has homered, walked, or whiffed in 49% of his total ABs. If you're looking for power, he's your guy. For obvious reasons (as in breaking the single-season K record last season with 195), he isn't going to provide an AVG boost for your team though. He and batting coach Chris Chambliss have been working on contact and so far this spring the results have been encouraging. But 40 ABs is also a small sample size, so wait until we see some more consistentcy at the plate. BOTTOM LINE: The power is for real (and he's only 25), so HR ceiling is way up there. All those whiffs again could make repeat 100 RBI difficult though.
CF: Ken Griffey
I really wish I could type Junior into another position (one that would make another injury less probable), but the Reds--or Griffey--won't have it otherwise. So, hold one moment while I get out the broken record: "Griffey's value is directly tied into his health. However, Griffey says he feels great and is 100% healthy heading into the season." The last, of course, is probably true, but the chances of him getting hurt at some point? I would say greater than most. If healthy, he still can produce quality numbers (30+ HR, 90+ RBI, but the average probably wouldn't top .265), but it's up to you whether or not you bet on good health. BOTTOM LINE: If you don't mind big risk, get him late--he'll play when healthy. But--how much will that be?
RF: Austin Kearns
Kearns, like Griffey and Dunn, has plenty of power to throw around. But again, there's the health issue. He appears more healed than Griffey this spring and it's a good gamble to say he's pretty much 100%. What does that mean with his history? He's got the ability to nail 30, but hitting over .270? Probably not. His contact % has dropped every year so far, down to 70% (yeesh) in ‘04 in limited duty. I can see the Reds whiffing away a lot of rallies this season unless these 3 start getting the bat on the ball more. Also, AK's career G/F ratio is 1.46--a little high for a 30+ bomber. BOTTOM LINE: At 24, there is plenty of time for him to be molded into a hitter that fits his abilities. But the risk is all yours if you're hoping that happens in '05. Know this though--he CAN hit.
OF 3A: Wily Mo Pena
With Kearns's hot spring and Wily Mo's StruggleFest, trade rumors have begun to surface again. GM Danny Boy said exactly what everyone was thinking though when asked about it. "[You know we have Kearns and Griffey, right? You know that they've spent 476 days on the DL the last 3 years, right?]" (paraphrased loosely by author). Wily Mo will stay and play fairly regularly early on, of that you can be sure. But like the rest, he's got a serious case of the whiffs (0.20 BB/K ratio). The Reds OF is All-World potential, but little on results (outside of King Kong Dunn) and Pena is no different. BOTTOM LINE: His patience is at a career low, he won't hit for AVG, but when he makes contact, flames trail the ball. He, too, though, hits a lot of grounders for a power guy.
OF: Jose Oquendo, er, Ryan Freel
Freel is "technically" an outfielder, but like '04, will probably see much of his time on the dirt. He's a speed demon and a popular draft pick with his 37 swipes (think NL and Chone Figgins). He's a man-with-no-spot-horse-with-no-name kinda guy. He still managed to net 143 games last season, so taking him for a speed jolt is not silly despite his lack of a position. That also makes him attractive for the ability to plug him in anywhere. Here's an interesting note--.369 OBP in the 2nd half last year, tops on the team and 6th in NL Central. Griffey, Dunn, Kearns, Casey need people to drive in and Freel will fit the bill. BOTTOM LINE: Slight knock for PT issues, but he'll get his swings, and most importantly his swipes, as long as that OBP was growth and not a fluke.
Spring Notes and Vol. 3
Felipe Lopez has stolen 3 bags in spring, trying to make himself remotely valuable, but 12 games and 35 ABs do not a turnaround make. Aaron Harang, competing for the 4 or 5 rotation hole, has posted 13 K and only 2 BB in 17.2 IP thus far. He's been taken yard 4 times, but the WHIP is 1.12. Have him and your radar (especially if he starts keeping it in the yard). Look for Brandon Claussen to get the 5 spot. BC is out of options and with Luke Hudson down combined with a solid spring, he'll probably get the nod. Next, we'll profile the rotation. I've gotten some mail on my lack of enthusiasm for the starters. If you're one who doesn't like bad news, wear a helmet because there really is some good news among the hailstorm. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.
LF: Adam Dunn
Dunn is easily the most bankable choice here and it's a good bank to do business with. Here's a flyball guy (with patience) in a flyball park who, over his 4-year career, has homered, walked, or whiffed in 49% of his total ABs. If you're looking for power, he's your guy. For obvious reasons (as in breaking the single-season K record last season with 195), he isn't going to provide an AVG boost for your team though. He and batting coach Chris Chambliss have been working on contact and so far this spring the results have been encouraging. But 40 ABs is also a small sample size, so wait until we see some more consistentcy at the plate. BOTTOM LINE: The power is for real (and he's only 25), so HR ceiling is way up there. All those whiffs again could make repeat 100 RBI difficult though.
CF: Ken Griffey
I really wish I could type Junior into another position (one that would make another injury less probable), but the Reds--or Griffey--won't have it otherwise. So, hold one moment while I get out the broken record: "Griffey's value is directly tied into his health. However, Griffey says he feels great and is 100% healthy heading into the season." The last, of course, is probably true, but the chances of him getting hurt at some point? I would say greater than most. If healthy, he still can produce quality numbers (30+ HR, 90+ RBI, but the average probably wouldn't top .265), but it's up to you whether or not you bet on good health. BOTTOM LINE: If you don't mind big risk, get him late--he'll play when healthy. But--how much will that be?
RF: Austin Kearns
Kearns, like Griffey and Dunn, has plenty of power to throw around. But again, there's the health issue. He appears more healed than Griffey this spring and it's a good gamble to say he's pretty much 100%. What does that mean with his history? He's got the ability to nail 30, but hitting over .270? Probably not. His contact % has dropped every year so far, down to 70% (yeesh) in ‘04 in limited duty. I can see the Reds whiffing away a lot of rallies this season unless these 3 start getting the bat on the ball more. Also, AK's career G/F ratio is 1.46--a little high for a 30+ bomber. BOTTOM LINE: At 24, there is plenty of time for him to be molded into a hitter that fits his abilities. But the risk is all yours if you're hoping that happens in '05. Know this though--he CAN hit.
OF 3A: Wily Mo Pena
With Kearns's hot spring and Wily Mo's StruggleFest, trade rumors have begun to surface again. GM Danny Boy said exactly what everyone was thinking though when asked about it. "[You know we have Kearns and Griffey, right? You know that they've spent 476 days on the DL the last 3 years, right?]" (paraphrased loosely by author). Wily Mo will stay and play fairly regularly early on, of that you can be sure. But like the rest, he's got a serious case of the whiffs (0.20 BB/K ratio). The Reds OF is All-World potential, but little on results (outside of King Kong Dunn) and Pena is no different. BOTTOM LINE: His patience is at a career low, he won't hit for AVG, but when he makes contact, flames trail the ball. He, too, though, hits a lot of grounders for a power guy.
OF: Jose Oquendo, er, Ryan Freel
Freel is "technically" an outfielder, but like '04, will probably see much of his time on the dirt. He's a speed demon and a popular draft pick with his 37 swipes (think NL and Chone Figgins). He's a man-with-no-spot-horse-with-no-name kinda guy. He still managed to net 143 games last season, so taking him for a speed jolt is not silly despite his lack of a position. That also makes him attractive for the ability to plug him in anywhere. Here's an interesting note--.369 OBP in the 2nd half last year, tops on the team and 6th in NL Central. Griffey, Dunn, Kearns, Casey need people to drive in and Freel will fit the bill. BOTTOM LINE: Slight knock for PT issues, but he'll get his swings, and most importantly his swipes, as long as that OBP was growth and not a fluke.
Spring Notes and Vol. 3
Felipe Lopez has stolen 3 bags in spring, trying to make himself remotely valuable, but 12 games and 35 ABs do not a turnaround make. Aaron Harang, competing for the 4 or 5 rotation hole, has posted 13 K and only 2 BB in 17.2 IP thus far. He's been taken yard 4 times, but the WHIP is 1.12. Have him and your radar (especially if he starts keeping it in the yard). Look for Brandon Claussen to get the 5 spot. BC is out of options and with Luke Hudson down combined with a solid spring, he'll probably get the nod. Next, we'll profile the rotation. I've gotten some mail on my lack of enthusiasm for the starters. If you're one who doesn't like bad news, wear a helmet because there really is some good news among the hailstorm. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.
Tuesday, March 15, 2005
2005 Draft/Season Preview
The Ides of March means spring training is in full swing. Some players have already received their minor league assignments as the seasons draws near, and some fantasy players have already participated in their first draft. I had my first one this past Saturday, picking up Sean Casey in the late single digit rounds as my back up to Albert Pujols, whom I kept from last year. This could turn out to be the best 1B tandem I've ever had. So--the question you're here to answer is which Reds should you add to your roster this season and when? This year's draft preview will start in the infield and we'll stick to the basics--what to expect, where they would rank by their position, but not where to draft them. That, my friends, is simply up to you. (NOTE: All analysis assumes good health.)
1B: Sean Casey, The Mayor
Far and away the best draft target in the IF. Casey finished '04 with a bunch of 2's--his 2nd highest marks in AVG, HR, R, and hits. All previous career highs came in '99. So, since it's been a while, can we expect the same kind of production again? Yes. He could have all new career highs this fall. Ks were at a career low last year (94% contact--that's amazing), his G/F ratio was at a career low as well (flyballs at GABP turn into HRs), and 15 of his 24 bombs came on the road. Almost 1 in 4 balls off his bat were line drives (compared to the MLB avg. of about 1 in 6). He hit over .300 against LHP and RHP for the first time in the last 5 years as well. BOTTOM LINE: NL, I'd pick only Pujols and Helton higher. MLB: Only add Ortiz and Teixiera to that. Top 5 1B overall.
2B: D'Angelo Jimenez
Jimenez, whom I heard one fan address him last year as DANG-uh-low, JIMMY-nez (a pronunciation which all her companions agreed with), isn't quite as elite at 2B. However, DJ isn't a guy that's going to hurt your squad either. His patience (13 bb%) has increased consistently, and he's having more success now from the left side (.281 in '04 against RHP). 13 was also a career high in SB last year and at age 27, he's got plenty of speed left on a team that needs it. If you don't expect a uptick in AVG (.270), this is a guy whose OBP will be around .350 so he’ll have an opportunity to swipe some bags. BOTTOM LINE: Barely ML top 15, but the difference between him and a name like Todd Walker (who'll go much earlier) is very marginal. He could hit double-digit HR and will be available late.
SS: Rich Aurilia/Felipe Lopez
It's easy to cover the SS position (even with 2 names) in a succinct manner because to put it just that way, you don't want anything the Reds have to offer. Period. If you've rostered one of these two, something obviously went wrong on draft day (or any day, for that matter). For the sake of being thorough, however, I will say that if there's any potential at all at this position, it's from Lopez, who is 25 this season, who actually has a little pop in that bat, but it's just a little and he's never hit over .226 against RHP, which may say even more. Barry Larkin, who made the All-Star team (and only $700K) in his final season with the Reds, would've probably come back about as cheap but was pushed out the door. Nice move. BOTTOM LINE: Avoid at all costs.
3B: Joe Randa
Speaking of Barry Larkin--why the Reds would decline to bring him back yet spend over 2 mil on a guy who isn't much younger is beyond me. Yes, Larkin doesn't play 3B, but Ryan Freel can. No, Freel's D wasn't great at the spot, but he did show significant range there (3.42 Rng). Lopez had over 200 innings there as well. Not sure why the Reds spent this money on Randa, and you shouldn't spend a pick on him either. Previously a line drive machine, his LD% dropped from 25 to 19 last year. He does get the ball into the air (1.01 G/F), but everything else is average. Really, really average. BOTTOM LINE: Worst Opening Day 3B option in NL. He may hit double digit HRs, but you can find that in plenty of other places.
C: Jason LaRue
Catcher is usually a weak position in fantasy baseball and 2005 really isn't that different. Thus, it's easier, once out of the top 5 or so, to just pick whoever and get varying degrees of minor production overall as long as that player is getting regular PT. Of the backstops who'll get that regular PT in ‘05, other than Javy Lopez, Jason Varitek, and Jorge Posada, I would put Jason LaRue in the next small group of catchers--if you're just judging power. Overall, he's probably a top 15 C, but power-wise he can help you. AVG? .250--and that's hopeful. No speed. Only NL catcher to whiff 100+ times in '04. OBP could very easily be below .300. BOTTOM LINE: If you need a smidge of extra power, LaRue can give it to you. The only concern is his G/F ratio (1.22), which was up from '03.
Spring Notes and Vol. 2
The next edition will cover the Reds biggest strength--the OF, which could rank as the NL's best in '05. Or be just average. It all depends on health (and how much risk you'll allow on your roster). Spring stats mean very little, but Wily Mo Pena is 5-32 with only 1 XBH so far. Kearn's .429 mark means he'll be firmly in command of RF unless Wily Mo catches fire. Rob Stratton is hitting .320 with 4 HR and 8 RBI in 25 AB, but don’t do anything crazy like draft him late, because while he may crush the ball, he may not even make the team and nothing in his past performances hints he could even hit .200 in the majors. Put it this way--he makes Adam Dunn look like a contact hitter. Don't mention that to your opponents though. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.
1B: Sean Casey, The Mayor
Far and away the best draft target in the IF. Casey finished '04 with a bunch of 2's--his 2nd highest marks in AVG, HR, R, and hits. All previous career highs came in '99. So, since it's been a while, can we expect the same kind of production again? Yes. He could have all new career highs this fall. Ks were at a career low last year (94% contact--that's amazing), his G/F ratio was at a career low as well (flyballs at GABP turn into HRs), and 15 of his 24 bombs came on the road. Almost 1 in 4 balls off his bat were line drives (compared to the MLB avg. of about 1 in 6). He hit over .300 against LHP and RHP for the first time in the last 5 years as well. BOTTOM LINE: NL, I'd pick only Pujols and Helton higher. MLB: Only add Ortiz and Teixiera to that. Top 5 1B overall.
2B: D'Angelo Jimenez
Jimenez, whom I heard one fan address him last year as DANG-uh-low, JIMMY-nez (a pronunciation which all her companions agreed with), isn't quite as elite at 2B. However, DJ isn't a guy that's going to hurt your squad either. His patience (13 bb%) has increased consistently, and he's having more success now from the left side (.281 in '04 against RHP). 13 was also a career high in SB last year and at age 27, he's got plenty of speed left on a team that needs it. If you don't expect a uptick in AVG (.270), this is a guy whose OBP will be around .350 so he’ll have an opportunity to swipe some bags. BOTTOM LINE: Barely ML top 15, but the difference between him and a name like Todd Walker (who'll go much earlier) is very marginal. He could hit double-digit HR and will be available late.
SS: Rich Aurilia/Felipe Lopez
It's easy to cover the SS position (even with 2 names) in a succinct manner because to put it just that way, you don't want anything the Reds have to offer. Period. If you've rostered one of these two, something obviously went wrong on draft day (or any day, for that matter). For the sake of being thorough, however, I will say that if there's any potential at all at this position, it's from Lopez, who is 25 this season, who actually has a little pop in that bat, but it's just a little and he's never hit over .226 against RHP, which may say even more. Barry Larkin, who made the All-Star team (and only $700K) in his final season with the Reds, would've probably come back about as cheap but was pushed out the door. Nice move. BOTTOM LINE: Avoid at all costs.
3B: Joe Randa
Speaking of Barry Larkin--why the Reds would decline to bring him back yet spend over 2 mil on a guy who isn't much younger is beyond me. Yes, Larkin doesn't play 3B, but Ryan Freel can. No, Freel's D wasn't great at the spot, but he did show significant range there (3.42 Rng). Lopez had over 200 innings there as well. Not sure why the Reds spent this money on Randa, and you shouldn't spend a pick on him either. Previously a line drive machine, his LD% dropped from 25 to 19 last year. He does get the ball into the air (1.01 G/F), but everything else is average. Really, really average. BOTTOM LINE: Worst Opening Day 3B option in NL. He may hit double digit HRs, but you can find that in plenty of other places.
C: Jason LaRue
Catcher is usually a weak position in fantasy baseball and 2005 really isn't that different. Thus, it's easier, once out of the top 5 or so, to just pick whoever and get varying degrees of minor production overall as long as that player is getting regular PT. Of the backstops who'll get that regular PT in ‘05, other than Javy Lopez, Jason Varitek, and Jorge Posada, I would put Jason LaRue in the next small group of catchers--if you're just judging power. Overall, he's probably a top 15 C, but power-wise he can help you. AVG? .250--and that's hopeful. No speed. Only NL catcher to whiff 100+ times in '04. OBP could very easily be below .300. BOTTOM LINE: If you need a smidge of extra power, LaRue can give it to you. The only concern is his G/F ratio (1.22), which was up from '03.
Spring Notes and Vol. 2
The next edition will cover the Reds biggest strength--the OF, which could rank as the NL's best in '05. Or be just average. It all depends on health (and how much risk you'll allow on your roster). Spring stats mean very little, but Wily Mo Pena is 5-32 with only 1 XBH so far. Kearn's .429 mark means he'll be firmly in command of RF unless Wily Mo catches fire. Rob Stratton is hitting .320 with 4 HR and 8 RBI in 25 AB, but don’t do anything crazy like draft him late, because while he may crush the ball, he may not even make the team and nothing in his past performances hints he could even hit .200 in the majors. Put it this way--he makes Adam Dunn look like a contact hitter. Don't mention that to your opponents though. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.
Tuesday, March 08, 2005
The Glass Menagerie
Austin Kearns has played 144 games in the last two seasons. Anderson Machado's return date is open-ended, but it'll be a while. Ryan Freel is coming off surgery on his knee in November, and Ray Olmedo won't be back until probably mid-May. Then, of course, there is the centerpieces of all centerpieces to this tender troop--Ken Griffey Jr. The Reds are working on a rule exception with MLB that would allow them to put Griffey at DH for home games in the first part of spring training. Treating Griff with kid gloves has become as common as breathing for the Reds' trainers. Mark Mann told the Cincinnati Enquirer that Junior's injury is common among professional water-skiers (I'm not really sure what that means or why it's relevant, so I’ll move on).
I'm all for saving Griffey as much as possible for when it counts. Cincinnati's "multi-million dollar guinea pig" has been more pig than guinea since 2000 and as much room as he takes up on the books, he should be protected with the utmost caution. But I've come up with a great idea that is so easy and apparently so revolutionary that no one’s thought of it (again, I've written this several times already and it's been like shouting at wet paint to dry). Play Junior in RF. What? Right field? Have the rivers turned to blood? Is the supermarket out of milk from the panic? Not quite. And WHY? Why is no one mentioning this? Why is this not an option? Is Griffey too vain? Has Dave Miley's creativity been stunted because he didn't get to color enough in kindergarten?
This isn’t uncommon on other teams. A guy is a little gimpy (or a little old), you move him away from center field so he doesn't have to jaunt all over the place chasing down flies, and he's moved to left or right--or wherever. Couldn't this have been tried before? Since 2000, Junior has played a grand total of two games in right field and one in left. What is happening here? Wily Mo can play center. Gold glover? No, but he can do well enough. Austin Kearns has even played 47 games in center with just 1 error. I've said it before and I'll say it again--this move should've been made long ago. The Cincinnati Enquirer referred to the Reds protecting Griffey as if he's Fort Knox's gold. That's a harrowing comparison because Fort Knox actually has very little gold left.
Always Needing a Good Laugh
Scanning the Reds official site, I found a recent column of mailbag questions from Reds fans to MLB.com writer Todd Lorenz (who has done a solid job with the gig). Someone named "Tyler P." asked, "Do the Reds have the potential for the best bullpen in baseball?" First, there was no word on whether Tyler takes any medication or whether he was late in taking said medication. When I came to later, recovering from laughing myself into unconsciousness, I figured I'd head off any speculation from any of my readers (and protect myself from subsequent potentially dangerous laughing spells) by saying that if you can manage to own zero Reds relievers this season, you're probably going to be a leg up on everyone else in your division. Worst? No. Best? That's just funny.
Somebody Needs a Chip on Their Shoulder
I'm worried. Worried that the Reds welcomed in Ramon Ortiz with arms wide open. Bad idea. Ortiz pitched his best ball last year when he was scratching and clawing for innings and fighting for PT. After a borderline year, he's given a free pass into the rotation when a guy like Aaron Harang has to "compete" for a spot. I'm not worried about that. Harang will show that he's very deserving--as he did in his first two innings of the spring--perfect and 3K. Ortiz's first outing? 3 IP = 3 R. As just about everyone in the Star Wars saga has said at some point during the story, "I've got a bad feeling about this."
Early Spring Notes
Austin Kearns is 4 for his first 10, with 3 doubles and a bomb. Future 3B Edwin Encarnacion is 5-11 with a SB. On the mound, Eric Milton allowed 6 hits and 3 runs in his first two innings of work. Ben Weber--2 IP, 4 H, 2 R. You take the good with the bad, I suppose. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.
I'm all for saving Griffey as much as possible for when it counts. Cincinnati's "multi-million dollar guinea pig" has been more pig than guinea since 2000 and as much room as he takes up on the books, he should be protected with the utmost caution. But I've come up with a great idea that is so easy and apparently so revolutionary that no one’s thought of it (again, I've written this several times already and it's been like shouting at wet paint to dry). Play Junior in RF. What? Right field? Have the rivers turned to blood? Is the supermarket out of milk from the panic? Not quite. And WHY? Why is no one mentioning this? Why is this not an option? Is Griffey too vain? Has Dave Miley's creativity been stunted because he didn't get to color enough in kindergarten?
This isn’t uncommon on other teams. A guy is a little gimpy (or a little old), you move him away from center field so he doesn't have to jaunt all over the place chasing down flies, and he's moved to left or right--or wherever. Couldn't this have been tried before? Since 2000, Junior has played a grand total of two games in right field and one in left. What is happening here? Wily Mo can play center. Gold glover? No, but he can do well enough. Austin Kearns has even played 47 games in center with just 1 error. I've said it before and I'll say it again--this move should've been made long ago. The Cincinnati Enquirer referred to the Reds protecting Griffey as if he's Fort Knox's gold. That's a harrowing comparison because Fort Knox actually has very little gold left.
Always Needing a Good Laugh
Scanning the Reds official site, I found a recent column of mailbag questions from Reds fans to MLB.com writer Todd Lorenz (who has done a solid job with the gig). Someone named "Tyler P." asked, "Do the Reds have the potential for the best bullpen in baseball?" First, there was no word on whether Tyler takes any medication or whether he was late in taking said medication. When I came to later, recovering from laughing myself into unconsciousness, I figured I'd head off any speculation from any of my readers (and protect myself from subsequent potentially dangerous laughing spells) by saying that if you can manage to own zero Reds relievers this season, you're probably going to be a leg up on everyone else in your division. Worst? No. Best? That's just funny.
Somebody Needs a Chip on Their Shoulder
I'm worried. Worried that the Reds welcomed in Ramon Ortiz with arms wide open. Bad idea. Ortiz pitched his best ball last year when he was scratching and clawing for innings and fighting for PT. After a borderline year, he's given a free pass into the rotation when a guy like Aaron Harang has to "compete" for a spot. I'm not worried about that. Harang will show that he's very deserving--as he did in his first two innings of the spring--perfect and 3K. Ortiz's first outing? 3 IP = 3 R. As just about everyone in the Star Wars saga has said at some point during the story, "I've got a bad feeling about this."
Early Spring Notes
Austin Kearns is 4 for his first 10, with 3 doubles and a bomb. Future 3B Edwin Encarnacion is 5-11 with a SB. On the mound, Eric Milton allowed 6 hits and 3 runs in his first two innings of work. Ben Weber--2 IP, 4 H, 2 R. You take the good with the bad, I suppose. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.
