Tuesday, April 26, 2005
April Fools?
At the beginning of the month, as a clever "so-funny-you-forgot-to-laugh" type of joke, I switched my columns on the Reds and Angels pages. Some of you got it, others wrote me concerned e-mails about the unintentional mistake I had made (which concerns me that some of you find my writing so intolerable you can't even make it through 7 paragraphs, but that's another story). Like I attempted to do, are there some Reds who are attempting (even though not intentionally) to fool fantasy owners with their performances? One thing (one of very few) I've learned about fantasy baseball is this--if the calendar says April, things aren't necessarily what they seem. Let's take a look at some Reds and see if their Aprils should be considered "fools" or "fool's gold".
Sean Casey
Casey is fine, and shame on those of you who dropped him. And some of you did, because he's down to 96% in mixed leagues. I brazenly predicted that Casey "could" have all new career highs in '05. I declared him to be a top-5 1B. 70 ABs later, I'm not gonna change that, despite his slow start (you gotta stick by your guns, right?). I will say there are a few things to be worried about from early returns. Casey's G/F ratio is at a career high (2.00) right now, after being at a career low in '04 (1.33). Hard to hit HRs when you're keeping it on the ground like that. Also, so far he's fanned 10 times in 70 ABs. That could be catching from his teammates. Verdict? Casey is FOOLING you. The average and RBI are coming, but with only 3 XBH, that career high in HRs might not.
Joe Randa
We go across the diamond to the man who could've been the "new Mayor" after the first week. Randa homered 3 times in the first 4 games and his stock skyrocketed. He was hitting .406 on 4/15 and fans said, "Could he be reborn in Cincy?" Since hitting HR #4 on 4/17, he's had 2 hits, accounting for all of his .091 AVG this past week. We've seen the high and the low and the truth, as usual, lies somewhere in between. I mentioned that Randa could provide double-digit HRs in the preseason, but that everything else was average. I even gave him a trite, handy little nickname--Average Joe. You'll do well to remember that. Randa will hit better than his current .266 and he'll jack 15 or so, but his April is FOOL'S GOLD. He's still toward the bottom of NL 3B.
Aaron Harang
Aaron Harang has had one forgettable start against 3 really good ones. I mentioned that this could be Cincinnati's best pitcher this year and he's done absolutely nothing to prove me wrong so far. He did get touched up by STL (5 ER, 6 IP), and did give up 3 in 6 IP to HOU, but he fanned 8 Astros, and the pen blew his lead. His K/9 is 7.8 and he's gotten through the 6th inning in all of his starts. His BB/9 is a little high (3.7), but history says that will come down and his .221 OBA is legit and not deflated by good luck (29% hit rate). Harang's 1-1 record is FOOLING you--thankfully his 3.70 ERA is not. Harang is 27, developing, and unlike a lot of young pitchers, doesn't have a lot of innings on his arm. The 2.2% owned in mixed leagues will only last so long.
Danny Graves
This should be fairly obvious and you really don't need me to tell you, but Danny Graves is escaping just about every save by the hair of his chinny-chin-chin. If you hear he's is playing the lotto, follow him and play the exact same numbers. His last 6 outings (all save situations), he's given up at least 1 hit in all of them and at least 1 run in 4 of them. He's struck out 2 batters in 8.1 IP while walking 7. Are you kidding me? Graves has never had closer numbers, but if this continues (and to some degree, it will), this could be the year for a major meltdown (and not a good time because I don't see the Reds exercising his mutual option for '06). If you can find someone who is desperate for saves in your league (and someone always is), deal Graves because his April is FOOL'S GOLD.
The Red Cross
Ramon Ortiz is slated to appear in a rehab start for the Class A Sarasota Reds today. If all goes well, he'll have a bullpen session on Thursday in Milwaukee with the team. He's eligible to return, so as soon as he's ready he'll be back. Those of you in NL leagues and the 0.2% of you in mixed leagues who insist on rostering him have a light at the end of your tunnel. Wily Mo Pena is responding well to treatment on his quad, according to team trainer Mark Mann. "He's not quite 100%," Mann said, according to the team website, but I think we can expect him back soon. Luke Hudson is progressing well in rehab although there's still no timetable for him to start pitching in minor league games. He was slated to throw a simulated game on Monday, but no word yet on how that went.
Freel Freed? And a New E-Mail!
Will Ryan Freel be picking up regular PT? 6 starts in the last 7 games and a .346 AVG and .414 OBP in that span says that he will. Freel has bottomed out in mixed leagues at 22%. He's stolen 2 bases already and attempted 5. Miley has mentioned that he wants to run more but doesn't have enough speed to do it. Freel could definitely scratch that itch for the Skip. Plus, you're not going to be able to roster many multi-position eligible (2B, 3B, OF) guys with 30+ SB potential and AVG growth potential--unless you own Chone Figgins. Finally, I'll soon be a married man (25 days) and have a new address. My computer, however, is already with my bride-to-be. So, we go from "theredletters" to just redletters@insightbb.com. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to those Red Letters.
Sean Casey
Casey is fine, and shame on those of you who dropped him. And some of you did, because he's down to 96% in mixed leagues. I brazenly predicted that Casey "could" have all new career highs in '05. I declared him to be a top-5 1B. 70 ABs later, I'm not gonna change that, despite his slow start (you gotta stick by your guns, right?). I will say there are a few things to be worried about from early returns. Casey's G/F ratio is at a career high (2.00) right now, after being at a career low in '04 (1.33). Hard to hit HRs when you're keeping it on the ground like that. Also, so far he's fanned 10 times in 70 ABs. That could be catching from his teammates. Verdict? Casey is FOOLING you. The average and RBI are coming, but with only 3 XBH, that career high in HRs might not.
Joe Randa
We go across the diamond to the man who could've been the "new Mayor" after the first week. Randa homered 3 times in the first 4 games and his stock skyrocketed. He was hitting .406 on 4/15 and fans said, "Could he be reborn in Cincy?" Since hitting HR #4 on 4/17, he's had 2 hits, accounting for all of his .091 AVG this past week. We've seen the high and the low and the truth, as usual, lies somewhere in between. I mentioned that Randa could provide double-digit HRs in the preseason, but that everything else was average. I even gave him a trite, handy little nickname--Average Joe. You'll do well to remember that. Randa will hit better than his current .266 and he'll jack 15 or so, but his April is FOOL'S GOLD. He's still toward the bottom of NL 3B.
Aaron Harang
Aaron Harang has had one forgettable start against 3 really good ones. I mentioned that this could be Cincinnati's best pitcher this year and he's done absolutely nothing to prove me wrong so far. He did get touched up by STL (5 ER, 6 IP), and did give up 3 in 6 IP to HOU, but he fanned 8 Astros, and the pen blew his lead. His K/9 is 7.8 and he's gotten through the 6th inning in all of his starts. His BB/9 is a little high (3.7), but history says that will come down and his .221 OBA is legit and not deflated by good luck (29% hit rate). Harang's 1-1 record is FOOLING you--thankfully his 3.70 ERA is not. Harang is 27, developing, and unlike a lot of young pitchers, doesn't have a lot of innings on his arm. The 2.2% owned in mixed leagues will only last so long.
Danny Graves
This should be fairly obvious and you really don't need me to tell you, but Danny Graves is escaping just about every save by the hair of his chinny-chin-chin. If you hear he's is playing the lotto, follow him and play the exact same numbers. His last 6 outings (all save situations), he's given up at least 1 hit in all of them and at least 1 run in 4 of them. He's struck out 2 batters in 8.1 IP while walking 7. Are you kidding me? Graves has never had closer numbers, but if this continues (and to some degree, it will), this could be the year for a major meltdown (and not a good time because I don't see the Reds exercising his mutual option for '06). If you can find someone who is desperate for saves in your league (and someone always is), deal Graves because his April is FOOL'S GOLD.
The Red Cross
Ramon Ortiz is slated to appear in a rehab start for the Class A Sarasota Reds today. If all goes well, he'll have a bullpen session on Thursday in Milwaukee with the team. He's eligible to return, so as soon as he's ready he'll be back. Those of you in NL leagues and the 0.2% of you in mixed leagues who insist on rostering him have a light at the end of your tunnel. Wily Mo Pena is responding well to treatment on his quad, according to team trainer Mark Mann. "He's not quite 100%," Mann said, according to the team website, but I think we can expect him back soon. Luke Hudson is progressing well in rehab although there's still no timetable for him to start pitching in minor league games. He was slated to throw a simulated game on Monday, but no word yet on how that went.
Freel Freed? And a New E-Mail!
Will Ryan Freel be picking up regular PT? 6 starts in the last 7 games and a .346 AVG and .414 OBP in that span says that he will. Freel has bottomed out in mixed leagues at 22%. He's stolen 2 bases already and attempted 5. Miley has mentioned that he wants to run more but doesn't have enough speed to do it. Freel could definitely scratch that itch for the Skip. Plus, you're not going to be able to roster many multi-position eligible (2B, 3B, OF) guys with 30+ SB potential and AVG growth potential--unless you own Chone Figgins. Finally, I'll soon be a married man (25 days) and have a new address. My computer, however, is already with my bride-to-be. So, we go from "theredletters" to just redletters@insightbb.com. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to those Red Letters.
Tuesday, April 19, 2005
Good Weekend…Mostly
After losing 12 in a row to Houston, the Reds pulled off back-to-back wins against them on Saturday and Sunday to win the series--and that's impressive. No, the 'Stros didn't have Berkman. Or Beltran. No, Roger Clemens didn't pitch in the series. But Eric Milton outpitched Andy Pettitte and Aaron Harang threw another solid start. And the Astros do have a guy named Jason Lane--who is making it harder for casual fans that assume he's just another young outfielder to ignore his talent. Most of you reading this hopefully already know that. But the Astros will be in the mix this year--regardless of those who think they're not very good. Oh, yeah, I said "mostly" a good weekend. Friday's game tickets were a birthday present. An 11-2 drubbing wasn't what I wished for.
Air Pena
Sunday's flight was a 498-footer non-stop to the upper deck bleacher area, the second longest in the history of the Great American Terminal. Our pilot, Wily Mo, certainly made his case for more PT as he took a round trip around the bases for the third time in five starts. He's hitting .327 against LHP since the start of last year, so you have to think he'll be in there some against southpaws. He also homers 1 out of every 12 ABs against them too. Miley told the Dayton Daily News that he tends to go with the hot hand--and there are none hotter than Wily Mo right now. If you've got him, play him while you can. Hopefully soon the Reds will give him the chance to play regularly like so many of us would like to see. Do be aware of the potential AVG anchor if he does cool (0 BB, 8 K).
Around the Rotation
We're starting with Aaron Harang. If you're scoring at home, that's 2 of 3 solid starts for AH (if you're not scoring at home, I am, so don't worry). 8 Ks in 6 IP, 3 ER and he left the Reds with a solid opportunity to win until the minute a reliever stepped out of the bullpen (more on that later). He did give up a bomb to Jason Lane, but most of his pitches looked good and his stamina already looks better this year in April than it did all of last year. He didn't even average 6 IP a start last year and thus far has completed the 6th in all 3 starts. Bundles of wins might be tough without getting through the 7th, but he's heading in the right direction. One hurler who's heading the opposite direction is Ramon Ortiz, who was DLed retro to 4/9. He'll missed Monday's start and will miss Saturday's as well.
His replacement is Matt Belisle, who's had 1 impressive start and one horrid one. His good one in St. Louis was uncharacteristic of his minor league work, but his control is very good and if he keeps fooling hitters, he can definitely be a serviceable sub for Ortiz. He had a bit of a rough year in Louisville last year, so hold off thinking he may be a diamond in the rough. He's green, and has shown little that suggests star starter. Someone who was given that status (at least by contract numbers) was Eric Milton, who recorded his first good start of the year after tanking in his first 2 outings. Most impressive about it was that he didn't allow any HRs. Unfortunately, one start does mean he's turned around 7 years of gopheritis. His G/F ratio on Saturday was still well below 1.0.
The 6(Hundred)th Man
Now that every other player on every other roster in Major League Baseball has seen action this year, Brandon Claussen will finally get his turn Tuesday night against the Cubs. He'll get the start--against Mark Prior. How's that for luck? Anyway, Claussen was an intriguing--and the most potentially rewarding--piece of the Aaron Boone to the Yankees deal back in 2003. Since arm surgery in 2002, he's slowly made his way back to the status of pitching prospect. His problem now is the same as it was before the surgery--walks. As in too many (4.8 BB/9). His minor numbers last year weren't much better. His '05 spring numbers were down, but his Ks were way down as well. Bottom line--he's a lefty with decent potential. Watch his BBs numbers starting tomorrow night to see how to proceed.
The BloatPen
I actually consulted a thesaurus to find the word with exactly the kind of feeling this collective of relievers exudes. I settled on bloat, but if the 4.85 ERA continues along with the .800 opponent OPS, I may go back for something much worse. I'll hold back somewhat because we're only 12 games in, but as I've said before, the new Reds BloatPen has the potential to be the worst in years. Only Wagner has offered any value through the first 2 weeks, and he's been super. Danny Graves' 5 blundering saves (and 1 vulture win) don't count as value where I'm concerned because he's struck out 1 batter and he's surrendered a hit an inning. The best thing I can say about this pen for now is that it will do wonders for Rolaids stockholders. Outside of Wagner, waive accordingly.
Hitting Against the Kitchen Sink
Here's something--the Reds have already faced Pedro Martinez, Roger Clemens, Tom Glavine (even though he's not the same Glavine), Andy Pettitte, and Mark Mulder, Kerry Wood and Roy Oswalt (twice). Who do they get to finish April? Mark Prior, Dontrelle Willis, Josh Beckett, Carlos Zambrano, and Greg Maddux are all on the list. Maybe that .257 team average and 4.5 runs/game isn't as bad as it looks. Twelve of the next 15 for Cincinnati are against divisional foes, so coming out of this stretch above .500 would put the Reds in the race for the time being. Something tells me the BloatPen could figure heavily in that equation. Here's my equation--less relievers, more wins. Either that or Air Pena will have to start daily flights. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.
Air Pena
Sunday's flight was a 498-footer non-stop to the upper deck bleacher area, the second longest in the history of the Great American Terminal. Our pilot, Wily Mo, certainly made his case for more PT as he took a round trip around the bases for the third time in five starts. He's hitting .327 against LHP since the start of last year, so you have to think he'll be in there some against southpaws. He also homers 1 out of every 12 ABs against them too. Miley told the Dayton Daily News that he tends to go with the hot hand--and there are none hotter than Wily Mo right now. If you've got him, play him while you can. Hopefully soon the Reds will give him the chance to play regularly like so many of us would like to see. Do be aware of the potential AVG anchor if he does cool (0 BB, 8 K).
Around the Rotation
We're starting with Aaron Harang. If you're scoring at home, that's 2 of 3 solid starts for AH (if you're not scoring at home, I am, so don't worry). 8 Ks in 6 IP, 3 ER and he left the Reds with a solid opportunity to win until the minute a reliever stepped out of the bullpen (more on that later). He did give up a bomb to Jason Lane, but most of his pitches looked good and his stamina already looks better this year in April than it did all of last year. He didn't even average 6 IP a start last year and thus far has completed the 6th in all 3 starts. Bundles of wins might be tough without getting through the 7th, but he's heading in the right direction. One hurler who's heading the opposite direction is Ramon Ortiz, who was DLed retro to 4/9. He'll missed Monday's start and will miss Saturday's as well.
His replacement is Matt Belisle, who's had 1 impressive start and one horrid one. His good one in St. Louis was uncharacteristic of his minor league work, but his control is very good and if he keeps fooling hitters, he can definitely be a serviceable sub for Ortiz. He had a bit of a rough year in Louisville last year, so hold off thinking he may be a diamond in the rough. He's green, and has shown little that suggests star starter. Someone who was given that status (at least by contract numbers) was Eric Milton, who recorded his first good start of the year after tanking in his first 2 outings. Most impressive about it was that he didn't allow any HRs. Unfortunately, one start does mean he's turned around 7 years of gopheritis. His G/F ratio on Saturday was still well below 1.0.
The 6(Hundred)th Man
Now that every other player on every other roster in Major League Baseball has seen action this year, Brandon Claussen will finally get his turn Tuesday night against the Cubs. He'll get the start--against Mark Prior. How's that for luck? Anyway, Claussen was an intriguing--and the most potentially rewarding--piece of the Aaron Boone to the Yankees deal back in 2003. Since arm surgery in 2002, he's slowly made his way back to the status of pitching prospect. His problem now is the same as it was before the surgery--walks. As in too many (4.8 BB/9). His minor numbers last year weren't much better. His '05 spring numbers were down, but his Ks were way down as well. Bottom line--he's a lefty with decent potential. Watch his BBs numbers starting tomorrow night to see how to proceed.
The BloatPen
I actually consulted a thesaurus to find the word with exactly the kind of feeling this collective of relievers exudes. I settled on bloat, but if the 4.85 ERA continues along with the .800 opponent OPS, I may go back for something much worse. I'll hold back somewhat because we're only 12 games in, but as I've said before, the new Reds BloatPen has the potential to be the worst in years. Only Wagner has offered any value through the first 2 weeks, and he's been super. Danny Graves' 5 blundering saves (and 1 vulture win) don't count as value where I'm concerned because he's struck out 1 batter and he's surrendered a hit an inning. The best thing I can say about this pen for now is that it will do wonders for Rolaids stockholders. Outside of Wagner, waive accordingly.
Hitting Against the Kitchen Sink
Here's something--the Reds have already faced Pedro Martinez, Roger Clemens, Tom Glavine (even though he's not the same Glavine), Andy Pettitte, and Mark Mulder, Kerry Wood and Roy Oswalt (twice). Who do they get to finish April? Mark Prior, Dontrelle Willis, Josh Beckett, Carlos Zambrano, and Greg Maddux are all on the list. Maybe that .257 team average and 4.5 runs/game isn't as bad as it looks. Twelve of the next 15 for Cincinnati are against divisional foes, so coming out of this stretch above .500 would put the Reds in the race for the time being. Something tells me the BloatPen could figure heavily in that equation. Here's my equation--less relievers, more wins. Either that or Air Pena will have to start daily flights. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.
Wednesday, April 13, 2005
What's in a Letter?
There's one particular letter that keeps popping up in Reds box scores and also their philosophies. It's a letter that has come to take on a very negative connotation, at least from where I'm sitting. That letter--the one that has spelled much of the Reds' doom over the last few years and will most likely continue to give them fits--is the letter K. K as in 3849 Reds batters fanning over the last 3 years (MLB's most in '03 & '04). K as in 63 already in '05 in just 9 games. K as in only 1 lineup regular who has exceptional contact % (Casey at 94). There are 5 regulars who whiffed at least once every 4 ABs in '04. That's awful. Not that this is an official stat, but the Reds had the lowest K Diff (pitcher Ks-hitter Ks=K Diff) in the majors in '04 by over 100 with a negative (-343).
Does that mean anything? Well, 3 of the top 7 in that category made the playoffs. It does mean that it's very hard for them to score a lot of runs because their AVG will be so low (12th, 15th, and 13th 2002-04). This offense, which is supposed to be so good, hasn't finished above 10th in runs scored in the NL in that same span. Everyone knows about Adam Dunn's new K record, but the Reds had 4 players in the top 40 in strikeouts last year--more than any team in the NL. This is a serious problem and until we see a downward trend in the whiffs, the offensive woes should continue. That means that most players in the lineup will be an AVG drag for you. It wouldn't surprise me if the only Reds who end up with an AVG above league average (.270) are Casey, Randa, and maybe Jimenez.
So that's bad. It doesn’t end there. Another reason Reds fans (and fantasy owners) should hate the letter K is because of the pitching philosophy they herald. Pitching coach Don Gullett and manager Dave Miley would have us believe that mowing the opposing lineup down really isn't that big a deal. Any casual Reds fan has heard by now of the "pitch to contact" philosophy. The Reds have finished no higher than 12th in the NL in both K/BB and BBs the last 3 seasons, and Gullett (while one of the best pitching coaches there is) decided it would be a good idea to just throw to the hitters, let them put it in play, and get them out instead of walking everyone who showed up at the plate with a stick. This, in principle, is not all bad. In practice, it won't work. Here's why.
MLB K/9 rates and the corresponding average ERA (courtesy of Baseball HQ): 0.0-3.9 (4.97), 4.0-4.9 (4.75), 5.0-5.9 (4.47), 6.0-6.9 (4.32), 7.0-7.9 (4.16), 8.0-8.9 (3.87), 9.0+ (3.22). This makes the obvious statement that the more batters you keep from hitting the ball, the better your ERA will be. The Reds shouldn't be pitching to contact. Batters who never strike out would hit around .300 consistently. Voros McCracken has done research on that in the past with hit rate. The good news of all this is that the Reds have several starters who can sit hitters down at a good rate (Milton, Harang, Claussen, and Hudson). The bad news is that 3 of those 4 have other issues. Bottom line--next time you hear someone talking about "pitching to contact", politely tell them to shut up.
Pitching Woes
The rotation is having both physical and statistical woes. First, Ramon Ortiz was scratched from his start on Wednesday because his stiffness in this groin and thigh. The Reds will give him a little time off to make sure it doesn't get worse. For the 0.3 percent of you who own him, this is another reminder the waive button is usually at the bottom of the page. The statistical woes (although not at all unexpected) belong to Eric Milton. That's 2 starts, 9.2 IP, 5 HR. That outlandish rate won't continue--but it will serve as an early warning that this will be a problem all year. If you don't mind the ERA spike, he'll give you the Ks and 10-12 wins. And if you'd like to dispute my prediction of 35 HRs, you can find me behind the fence during Milton's starts shagging flies.
Outlandish Outfield?
Sports Illustrated recently ranked the Cincinnati Reds trio of Dunn, Griffey, and Kearns as the 2nd best OF in the majors behind the Los Angeles Angels (Anderson, Finley, and Guerrero). Does that hold water? As long as you don't count AVG. Griffey's off to a good start, showing what he can do when he's healthy--although 0 HR and 2 BB vs. 8 K show that the .292 AVG isn't a good as it looks. Adam Dunn--.185 AVG, 2 BB, 10 K. Austin Kearns--0 HR, .227, 3 BB, 8 K. Also, look at some RAR (runs above replacement) levels from the 3 primary outfielders for the following teams--LA Angels 74.5; Boston 78.0; and Cincinnati 20.9. With totals like that, it's hard to argue that the Reds OF is anywhere near 2nd place.
Division Stretch Continues
The Reds return home for 3 against Houston, 2 with Chicago, and 2 with Pittsburgh. Brandon Claussen will get his first start against those Cubs. Wait until he proves he can lower his BB total before you consider a spot start. With a 1-4 road trip, the Reds could use a solid homestand to avoid digging a hole in the division this early in April. Keep riding Harang despite the hiccup against St. Louis. Casey will come around. Yeah, he's only walked once, but with only 4 Ks, he is making solid contact. The hits will come soon. A 3-4 game against the Cards today is a good start. Freel has gotten on base in 8 of his first 15 plate appearances. He's been caught stealing 3 times, but 30 SBs don't seem a stretch with a good OBP. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.
Does that mean anything? Well, 3 of the top 7 in that category made the playoffs. It does mean that it's very hard for them to score a lot of runs because their AVG will be so low (12th, 15th, and 13th 2002-04). This offense, which is supposed to be so good, hasn't finished above 10th in runs scored in the NL in that same span. Everyone knows about Adam Dunn's new K record, but the Reds had 4 players in the top 40 in strikeouts last year--more than any team in the NL. This is a serious problem and until we see a downward trend in the whiffs, the offensive woes should continue. That means that most players in the lineup will be an AVG drag for you. It wouldn't surprise me if the only Reds who end up with an AVG above league average (.270) are Casey, Randa, and maybe Jimenez.
So that's bad. It doesn’t end there. Another reason Reds fans (and fantasy owners) should hate the letter K is because of the pitching philosophy they herald. Pitching coach Don Gullett and manager Dave Miley would have us believe that mowing the opposing lineup down really isn't that big a deal. Any casual Reds fan has heard by now of the "pitch to contact" philosophy. The Reds have finished no higher than 12th in the NL in both K/BB and BBs the last 3 seasons, and Gullett (while one of the best pitching coaches there is) decided it would be a good idea to just throw to the hitters, let them put it in play, and get them out instead of walking everyone who showed up at the plate with a stick. This, in principle, is not all bad. In practice, it won't work. Here's why.
MLB K/9 rates and the corresponding average ERA (courtesy of Baseball HQ): 0.0-3.9 (4.97), 4.0-4.9 (4.75), 5.0-5.9 (4.47), 6.0-6.9 (4.32), 7.0-7.9 (4.16), 8.0-8.9 (3.87), 9.0+ (3.22). This makes the obvious statement that the more batters you keep from hitting the ball, the better your ERA will be. The Reds shouldn't be pitching to contact. Batters who never strike out would hit around .300 consistently. Voros McCracken has done research on that in the past with hit rate. The good news of all this is that the Reds have several starters who can sit hitters down at a good rate (Milton, Harang, Claussen, and Hudson). The bad news is that 3 of those 4 have other issues. Bottom line--next time you hear someone talking about "pitching to contact", politely tell them to shut up.
Pitching Woes
The rotation is having both physical and statistical woes. First, Ramon Ortiz was scratched from his start on Wednesday because his stiffness in this groin and thigh. The Reds will give him a little time off to make sure it doesn't get worse. For the 0.3 percent of you who own him, this is another reminder the waive button is usually at the bottom of the page. The statistical woes (although not at all unexpected) belong to Eric Milton. That's 2 starts, 9.2 IP, 5 HR. That outlandish rate won't continue--but it will serve as an early warning that this will be a problem all year. If you don't mind the ERA spike, he'll give you the Ks and 10-12 wins. And if you'd like to dispute my prediction of 35 HRs, you can find me behind the fence during Milton's starts shagging flies.
Outlandish Outfield?
Sports Illustrated recently ranked the Cincinnati Reds trio of Dunn, Griffey, and Kearns as the 2nd best OF in the majors behind the Los Angeles Angels (Anderson, Finley, and Guerrero). Does that hold water? As long as you don't count AVG. Griffey's off to a good start, showing what he can do when he's healthy--although 0 HR and 2 BB vs. 8 K show that the .292 AVG isn't a good as it looks. Adam Dunn--.185 AVG, 2 BB, 10 K. Austin Kearns--0 HR, .227, 3 BB, 8 K. Also, look at some RAR (runs above replacement) levels from the 3 primary outfielders for the following teams--LA Angels 74.5; Boston 78.0; and Cincinnati 20.9. With totals like that, it's hard to argue that the Reds OF is anywhere near 2nd place.
Division Stretch Continues
The Reds return home for 3 against Houston, 2 with Chicago, and 2 with Pittsburgh. Brandon Claussen will get his first start against those Cubs. Wait until he proves he can lower his BB total before you consider a spot start. With a 1-4 road trip, the Reds could use a solid homestand to avoid digging a hole in the division this early in April. Keep riding Harang despite the hiccup against St. Louis. Casey will come around. Yeah, he's only walked once, but with only 4 Ks, he is making solid contact. The hits will come soon. A 3-4 game against the Cards today is a good start. Freel has gotten on base in 8 of his first 15 plate appearances. He's been caught stealing 3 times, but 30 SBs don't seem a stretch with a good OBP. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.
Friday, April 08, 2005
Step Right Up and Sweep the Mets
Okay, who had the Reds sweeping the "New Mets"? Anyone? Bueller? Well, regardless of your level of faith and expectation for this year's Cincinnati squad, it was an impressive three games and while the Mets big offseason grabs shined (Beltran 5-13, HR, 3 RBI; Pedro 6 IP, 12 K, 2 BB), plenty of other Mets didn't (Glavine, Looper, DeJean). So, with the first 3-0 start since the Reds went wire-to-wire in 1990 under their belts, can Cincy fans expect another 91-71 regular season followed by a 6th world championship? Don't look at me--I didn't think they could beat the Mets 3 in a row. But after taking in the series, there were sure a lot of things to like.
Randa-Lamma-Ham-Dam
The big story is, of course, Randa. Chicks may dig the long ball but so does the media. Miley mentioned that Sean Casey may have to forfeit his "Mayor" nickname. Randa isn't quite so sure. "Nobody recognized me," he told the Dayton Daily News, when asked if he'd been offered any free meals by fans for his heroics. Randa's numbers after 3 games have him looking like he's re-emerged. Not so fast. His career HR high is 16 and I'd view that as a ceiling this year. Remember his career SLG% is .426, so he's not going to discover a power stroke at 35. He can still hit for a decent average, but the reason for this surge could lie in his increased FB% (up to 41). We all know that GABP is a place where lazy flies become dingers. Still, don't get too excited about Joe.
Ken Griffey is Not an Anti-Dentite
But he's already missed game #1. Griffey didn't play in Thursday's series finale because of what Miley called a "dental problem, a crown problem". What? His appointment was in the early morning. The game was at 12:35. Oral surgery or a really slow dentist? Whatley! I realize this is a small thing, but here's a guy who's had every leg injury (and re-injury) known to man in the last 4 seasons, and he can't even make it through the first series without popping a tooth? Look, I'm not poking fun--teeth problems hurt. I've had several teeth pulled (wisdom included, which explains my lack of knowledge). But if fantasy owners have to start worrying about Griffey's teeth, then I'm betting we're gonna see white flags everywhere. What's more painful? He's started 4-7.
Aaron Won't Be Harang-ing Around the FA List
Let's take a look at the box score--6 IP, 1 H, 5 K, 3 BB, 0 ER--and win numero uno. Other than, say, more walks than you'd like to see, there was nothing not to like about Harang's first trip to the mound. Before his start, he was owned in a grand total of 0% of mixed leagues. With more starts like Thursday's, that will change fast. In the Reds Rotation Preview (Vol. 3 at The Red Letters--theredletters.blogspot.com), I mentioned that Harang could have the best year of any starter on the team, including Milton. He did nothing to prove me wrong yesterday, looking solid on almost every count. He's not going to take the fantasy world by storm, but if you need pitching, don't get in late on Harang. He won't be at 0% that much longer.
A Huge Disappointment
Like a lot of Reds fans, Ryan Freel has been a favorite of mine since he first saw action in 2003. On Monday night, what came as a huge surprise to myself--and probably many others--soon turned to huge disappointment. Freel was arrested for DUI and other related charges. Freel has done all the right things so far--apologized, taken full responsibility, and basically not acted like an entitled athlete through the process. I have no sympathy for those who get behind the wheel and drive. Zero. It is a bad choice that can alter lives forever. While he should be forgiven, this is the kind of thing that can never happen again--and I'm sure O'Brien and Miley told him as much. As far as PT is concerned, it shouldn't change things. He went 0-1 with 2 BB, 1 R, and 1 RBI on Thursday.
Striking Out at the Plate, But Not on the Scoreboard
The last 2 seasons in Major League Baseball has seen a team strike out 16+ times at the plate yet still manage to win the game 11 times. Five of those 11 times the team was the Cincinnati Reds. This doesn't appear to be changing any time soon. Pedro whiffed 12 Reds and the bullpen fanned 4 more in the Reds comeback 7-6 Opening Day win. There really isn't anyone outside of Casey and maybe Randa who will make better than average contact, so it's easy to see the Reds whiffing a lot of rallies away. Also, if you've got a good K pitcher against the Reds, make sure he's active. Dunn has fanned in 7 of 11 ABs so far, with only 1 walk. That's the worst of the worst, but the rest of the team doesn't look much better. They've led the majors in Ks the last 2 years. Expect a 3-peat.
Houston, St. Louis, and Pitching to Contact
The Reds now head out on a 5-game, 2-city road trip, both foes in the division. The Houston pitching matchups don't favor the Reds to say the least. But then, facing Clemens and Oswalt in a 3-game series doesn't really favor anyone (except the Astros). The good news is that the Houston offense is much weaker than last year's right now. The bad news is that they'll be better than most think. St. Louis is still the team to beat in the NL Central though. Two fun games at Busch on tap. Also, next time, we'll look at the now well-known "pitch to contact" philosophy of pitching coach Don Gullett and manager Dave Miley. Let me say that the approach is misguided at best. I'll tell you why. Until then, I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.
Randa-Lamma-Ham-Dam
The big story is, of course, Randa. Chicks may dig the long ball but so does the media. Miley mentioned that Sean Casey may have to forfeit his "Mayor" nickname. Randa isn't quite so sure. "Nobody recognized me," he told the Dayton Daily News, when asked if he'd been offered any free meals by fans for his heroics. Randa's numbers after 3 games have him looking like he's re-emerged. Not so fast. His career HR high is 16 and I'd view that as a ceiling this year. Remember his career SLG% is .426, so he's not going to discover a power stroke at 35. He can still hit for a decent average, but the reason for this surge could lie in his increased FB% (up to 41). We all know that GABP is a place where lazy flies become dingers. Still, don't get too excited about Joe.
Ken Griffey is Not an Anti-Dentite
But he's already missed game #1. Griffey didn't play in Thursday's series finale because of what Miley called a "dental problem, a crown problem". What? His appointment was in the early morning. The game was at 12:35. Oral surgery or a really slow dentist? Whatley! I realize this is a small thing, but here's a guy who's had every leg injury (and re-injury) known to man in the last 4 seasons, and he can't even make it through the first series without popping a tooth? Look, I'm not poking fun--teeth problems hurt. I've had several teeth pulled (wisdom included, which explains my lack of knowledge). But if fantasy owners have to start worrying about Griffey's teeth, then I'm betting we're gonna see white flags everywhere. What's more painful? He's started 4-7.
Aaron Won't Be Harang-ing Around the FA List
Let's take a look at the box score--6 IP, 1 H, 5 K, 3 BB, 0 ER--and win numero uno. Other than, say, more walks than you'd like to see, there was nothing not to like about Harang's first trip to the mound. Before his start, he was owned in a grand total of 0% of mixed leagues. With more starts like Thursday's, that will change fast. In the Reds Rotation Preview (Vol. 3 at The Red Letters--theredletters.blogspot.com), I mentioned that Harang could have the best year of any starter on the team, including Milton. He did nothing to prove me wrong yesterday, looking solid on almost every count. He's not going to take the fantasy world by storm, but if you need pitching, don't get in late on Harang. He won't be at 0% that much longer.
A Huge Disappointment
Like a lot of Reds fans, Ryan Freel has been a favorite of mine since he first saw action in 2003. On Monday night, what came as a huge surprise to myself--and probably many others--soon turned to huge disappointment. Freel was arrested for DUI and other related charges. Freel has done all the right things so far--apologized, taken full responsibility, and basically not acted like an entitled athlete through the process. I have no sympathy for those who get behind the wheel and drive. Zero. It is a bad choice that can alter lives forever. While he should be forgiven, this is the kind of thing that can never happen again--and I'm sure O'Brien and Miley told him as much. As far as PT is concerned, it shouldn't change things. He went 0-1 with 2 BB, 1 R, and 1 RBI on Thursday.
Striking Out at the Plate, But Not on the Scoreboard
The last 2 seasons in Major League Baseball has seen a team strike out 16+ times at the plate yet still manage to win the game 11 times. Five of those 11 times the team was the Cincinnati Reds. This doesn't appear to be changing any time soon. Pedro whiffed 12 Reds and the bullpen fanned 4 more in the Reds comeback 7-6 Opening Day win. There really isn't anyone outside of Casey and maybe Randa who will make better than average contact, so it's easy to see the Reds whiffing a lot of rallies away. Also, if you've got a good K pitcher against the Reds, make sure he's active. Dunn has fanned in 7 of 11 ABs so far, with only 1 walk. That's the worst of the worst, but the rest of the team doesn't look much better. They've led the majors in Ks the last 2 years. Expect a 3-peat.
Houston, St. Louis, and Pitching to Contact
The Reds now head out on a 5-game, 2-city road trip, both foes in the division. The Houston pitching matchups don't favor the Reds to say the least. But then, facing Clemens and Oswalt in a 3-game series doesn't really favor anyone (except the Astros). The good news is that the Houston offense is much weaker than last year's right now. The bad news is that they'll be better than most think. St. Louis is still the team to beat in the NL Central though. Two fun games at Busch on tap. Also, next time, we'll look at the now well-known "pitch to contact" philosophy of pitching coach Don Gullett and manager Dave Miley. Let me say that the approach is misguided at best. I'll tell you why. Until then, I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.
Friday, April 01, 2005
Draft/Season Preview Vol. 4
I want to play a little word association with you today. Angel food cake--good. Yellow snow angels--bad. An Angel getting its wings--good. Not drafting at least one Angel reliever--bad. Sure, saying that is not exactly going out on a limb, but look at these numbers for the 2004 season: 3.47 ERA (2nd), 1.30 WHIP (1st), .671 opponent OPS (1st), 9.07 K/9 (1st), and a 2.66 (!) K/BB ratio (easily 1st). Even better--the best arms from that stellar performance are back. We'll take a look at those that can help your fantasy roster (basically every one in uniform). Troy Percival, Ramon Ortiz, and Ben Weber aren't back this year, but with this group remaining, they definitely won't miss a beat.
K-Rod
Basically whatever good thing you want to say about Francisco Rodriguez won't be an overstatement. He's just 23 this year and already among the elite in baseball when it comes to guys outta the pen. He's the new closer, and if you want a guy who'll absolutely slam the door just about every time out, he's your guy. He sported a filthy 13.2 K/9 last season, posted a 1.82 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and righties only managed an emaciated .127 AVG off of him. His slider is so sick Bengie Molina probably ought to carry a gag bag with him because opposing batters will probably need it. Troy Percival has posted 27 or more saves the last 9 years. 2005 will be year #1 in a long string for Future King K-Rod. BOTTOM LINE: I know Rivera's is the King of Relievers, but K-Rod is his prince and heir.
Brendan Donnelly
Last year was somewhat muted for Donnelly, with him only throwing 42 innings due to a freak batting practice accident that left him out for a good part of the season. This spring, he appears healthy (with a sub 2.00 ERA and 10 K in 10.1 IP) and there are no limits to how low he can go in the ERA and WHIP categories. He'd close on 20 of the 30 teams in baseball, but if your league counts holds (and one of mine does for some reason), Donnelly will make you very happy. His 12.0 K/9 and .223 OBA tell you all you need to know. If you can possibly get BD (and middle relievers usually come pretty cheap), then he's about as good as they get. BOTTOM LINE: I can't think of any reason to not recommend him. He looks that good.
Scot Shields
If Dick Vitale worked MLB, he'd probably say something like, "He's Mr. Versatility, Baby! Shields can do it all! Start! Relieve! Run the scoreboard! He's a Rolls Roycer, Baby!" He's also durable, throwing 100+ the last 2 seasons, with stellar numbers across the board. His K/BB has been at least 2.6 the last 4 seasons and he doesn't give up the long ball. You know something else? He's improving. 2005 could be his best year yet. He recently had a shin splint that was rediagnosed as a stress reaction, which is the only cause for concern for Shields. If he stays healthy, I can totally see another sub 3.00 ERA with plenty of guys heading back to the dugout frustrated (OBA under .250 last 3 seasons). BOTTOM LINE: He's scintillating, sensational, and totally rosterable.
Kevin Gregg
KG is probably the number 4 option in the Halo pen and he's super. He keeps the ball in the park very well (0.6 HR/9) and his K/BB last season was 3.0. He had quite a bit of bad luck and still posted a decent 4.23 ERA. That should very easily be the in the 3's in 2005. Gregg has used his time in the minors wisely, improving and maturing and this year he'll be 26 and looks primed to begin a lengthy career as a solid middle reliever and even has starting potential in a pinch. It's appears from his minor league numbers that he's better suited for relief, and I wouldn't be the least bit shy about drafting him. Scioscia will use him often (89 IP in '04). BOTTOM LINE: I've drafted him twice already, and he's a perfect option for vulture wins and ERA and K success.
Estaban Yan/Matt Hensley
There are so many pens that would want a Yan for a #5. He's got a solid 7.0+ K/9, he keeps the ball on the ground, and while he can walk a few too many from time to time, he finished the year for the first time in the last 5 with a HR/9 under 1.0. You can view that 2 ways--as a fluke or as improvement. With a flyball % that has dropped from 40 to 31 and a groundball % that's gone from 41 to 51 from '02-'04, it certainly looks like improvement is the right assumption. He can help and will be easy to get. Hensley's just the opposite--he can't keep anywhere near this side of the fence. He's got the talent, but he's also got a shoulder problem. If it needs surgery, keep him in mind for later. BOTTOM LINE: It sounds redundant, but a healthy Yan and Hensley can help you.
What's Going On Here?
Reds fans that aren't confused by this point (or completely incensed that a team can possibly have this good of a bullpen), should take heart. APRIL FOOLS. Your final Preview volume is over at Inside the Halo (yeah, a lame gag, but I ran out of stink bombs and silly string). That'll wrap up the 4 volumes of the Preview, which can be viewed (IF, OF, rotation, and bullpen) at theredletters.blogspot.com. I'm excited to be with you for a 2nd season of Reds baseball. The next column will be the first of the regular season, and the on-field action and your inquiries to theredletters@insightbb.com will determine its content (although I'll have the obligatory postseason picks next time as well). For now, let's play ball! I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters (well, kinda).
K-Rod
Basically whatever good thing you want to say about Francisco Rodriguez won't be an overstatement. He's just 23 this year and already among the elite in baseball when it comes to guys outta the pen. He's the new closer, and if you want a guy who'll absolutely slam the door just about every time out, he's your guy. He sported a filthy 13.2 K/9 last season, posted a 1.82 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and righties only managed an emaciated .127 AVG off of him. His slider is so sick Bengie Molina probably ought to carry a gag bag with him because opposing batters will probably need it. Troy Percival has posted 27 or more saves the last 9 years. 2005 will be year #1 in a long string for Future King K-Rod. BOTTOM LINE: I know Rivera's is the King of Relievers, but K-Rod is his prince and heir.
Brendan Donnelly
Last year was somewhat muted for Donnelly, with him only throwing 42 innings due to a freak batting practice accident that left him out for a good part of the season. This spring, he appears healthy (with a sub 2.00 ERA and 10 K in 10.1 IP) and there are no limits to how low he can go in the ERA and WHIP categories. He'd close on 20 of the 30 teams in baseball, but if your league counts holds (and one of mine does for some reason), Donnelly will make you very happy. His 12.0 K/9 and .223 OBA tell you all you need to know. If you can possibly get BD (and middle relievers usually come pretty cheap), then he's about as good as they get. BOTTOM LINE: I can't think of any reason to not recommend him. He looks that good.
Scot Shields
If Dick Vitale worked MLB, he'd probably say something like, "He's Mr. Versatility, Baby! Shields can do it all! Start! Relieve! Run the scoreboard! He's a Rolls Roycer, Baby!" He's also durable, throwing 100+ the last 2 seasons, with stellar numbers across the board. His K/BB has been at least 2.6 the last 4 seasons and he doesn't give up the long ball. You know something else? He's improving. 2005 could be his best year yet. He recently had a shin splint that was rediagnosed as a stress reaction, which is the only cause for concern for Shields. If he stays healthy, I can totally see another sub 3.00 ERA with plenty of guys heading back to the dugout frustrated (OBA under .250 last 3 seasons). BOTTOM LINE: He's scintillating, sensational, and totally rosterable.
Kevin Gregg
KG is probably the number 4 option in the Halo pen and he's super. He keeps the ball in the park very well (0.6 HR/9) and his K/BB last season was 3.0. He had quite a bit of bad luck and still posted a decent 4.23 ERA. That should very easily be the in the 3's in 2005. Gregg has used his time in the minors wisely, improving and maturing and this year he'll be 26 and looks primed to begin a lengthy career as a solid middle reliever and even has starting potential in a pinch. It's appears from his minor league numbers that he's better suited for relief, and I wouldn't be the least bit shy about drafting him. Scioscia will use him often (89 IP in '04). BOTTOM LINE: I've drafted him twice already, and he's a perfect option for vulture wins and ERA and K success.
Estaban Yan/Matt Hensley
There are so many pens that would want a Yan for a #5. He's got a solid 7.0+ K/9, he keeps the ball on the ground, and while he can walk a few too many from time to time, he finished the year for the first time in the last 5 with a HR/9 under 1.0. You can view that 2 ways--as a fluke or as improvement. With a flyball % that has dropped from 40 to 31 and a groundball % that's gone from 41 to 51 from '02-'04, it certainly looks like improvement is the right assumption. He can help and will be easy to get. Hensley's just the opposite--he can't keep anywhere near this side of the fence. He's got the talent, but he's also got a shoulder problem. If it needs surgery, keep him in mind for later. BOTTOM LINE: It sounds redundant, but a healthy Yan and Hensley can help you.
What's Going On Here?
Reds fans that aren't confused by this point (or completely incensed that a team can possibly have this good of a bullpen), should take heart. APRIL FOOLS. Your final Preview volume is over at Inside the Halo (yeah, a lame gag, but I ran out of stink bombs and silly string). That'll wrap up the 4 volumes of the Preview, which can be viewed (IF, OF, rotation, and bullpen) at theredletters.blogspot.com. I'm excited to be with you for a 2nd season of Reds baseball. The next column will be the first of the regular season, and the on-field action and your inquiries to theredletters@insightbb.com will determine its content (although I'll have the obligatory postseason picks next time as well). For now, let's play ball! I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters (well, kinda).
