Monday, July 26, 2004
Let's Get Wild
Let's be honest. I love the Reds. Maybe you do too. It's important to be open and honest with out loved ones, right? No one is catching the Cardinals. I don't think that's a news flash, but they're not. Not the Cubs, as much as they want to think otherwise, not the Reds, not Flash Gordon--no one. So looking at the Wild Card, the Reds find themselves in 5th, 4.5 back. Can they do it? Barry Larkin says so. He spearheaded a team meeting over the weekend to help put the Reds house in order. Will it work? Comments from the players range from confident (Larkin, Casey) to cautiously hopeful (Graves). One thing is clear--there isn't much more room for error, because this Reds team is one that needs to stay in the race, because they're not capable of coming from way back.
Help on the Way?
Two pieces of help for the Reds should be back on the field not too far into August. Ken Griffey ran the bases at 50% of Friday and then 70% on Sunday, according to the Dayton Daily News, which didn't reveal their scientific measuring gauge on just how much effort a player is putting into running. What's quantifiable, at least by me, is that he's due back today and won't be. When can we expect him back? I would think that the Reds will push him back very quickly, since he's hitting .343 with runners in scoring position this year and the Reds managed to leave 38 men on base in over this last 5-game road trip. No one is coming through in the clutch for Cincinnati and that stat says more about the Reds right now than anything. Look for Griffey maybe by the weekend or early next week.
What about Kearns? Austin hit off a tee this weekend and took dry swings as well and was scheduled for soft toss yesterday, although no word was given by any media, DDN or otherwise, as to what scientific percentage he was efforting in those swings. Austin had said earlier that he expected to make a minor league rehab stint before returning and considering the play of Wily Mo Pena recently, that's probably a good bet. I'd look for Kearns after Griffey, and he'll probably return no sooner than mid-August. He, unlike Griffey, has managed a trail-blazing .158 with runners in scoring position this season, although basically all his numbers in '04 have been altered due to the fact that he wasn't playing at 100% for nearly all of it. Don't get me started on how the Reds have handled that.
Who Would You Turn To? Jose Rijo?
A report of Jose Acevedo being removed from the rotation led Dave Miley to respond that JA wouldn't be given just one more start to prove his worth, but would continue to develop in the rotation at the major league level. Of course! Who would the Reds call on? There's only really one option at AAA in Seth Etherton, who's had only 18 career starts (11 of those were in '00) while being plagued by injuries in the minors his entire career. His numbers in '04 are very good, but is he a guy you wanna trust your Wild Card run to? I'll allow that JA has been horrible lately, but he did show flashes of success late last year and early this year, while always displaying the potential for success. Removing Acevedo would be ridiculous, not for reasons of performance, but for lack of options.
Wily Mo. . .and Mo. . .and Mo
What in the name of Dave Parker is goin' on? The Reds have had only two right fielders who have slugged .551 or better since Parker did it in 1985--Reggie Sanders in '95 (.579) and Jose Guillen last year (.629). Both of those guys are currently slamming bombs for other teams, while 22-year-old Wily Mo is hitting them over the fence once every 13 ABs. That, with regular play, would average out to 6th in the NL, behind names like Dunn, Beltre, Pujols, Thome, and Bonds. Yes, he has a 69% contact rate, but at 22, he can work on that. At 22, he can work on everything. If the Reds, having seen now what he can potentially do with full-time play, don't let him have the chance, they'll be making a big mistake. If they have to trade someone, I say again--as much as I like him--make it Kearns.
Ready to Overpay Again?
Should the Reds re-sign Paul Wilson? The Dayton Daily News suggested if the Reds don't use the money they have to be receiving due to the highest average attendance they've had in years (only 2000 and 1995 were higher in the last decade and only by a thousand), they should re-sign PW. He's currently payrolled at 3.5 mil and I say if he's signs for exactly that--and not a penny more--then, yeah. The DDN claimed he's earned it, which is wonderful, but his stats aren't as good as his work ethic. His strand rate is over 76%, which says he's had a bit of luck to his 3.71 ERA. His run support has been 6.1, which is well above the NL average of 4.6. Wilson is good, but that's it. He's not a #1, and the Reds have been overpaying players too much (see Griffey, Larkin). Don't add PW to it.
Odds and Ends
So much for a good roadie. The Reds are now 22-31 on the road, dropping 19 of their last 25 away from home. . .Check out my new baseball commentary site, Center Field (cf8.blogspot.com). There are also links to it at Red Letters (theredletters.blogspot.com). Check out the first article and be sure to chime in with your comments. It's geared to be an interactive site to talk baseball and have great discussion. Grab your glove and stop by Center Field. . .17 of the next 20 are against either the Cards or those in the midst of the Wild Card race along with the Reds. No rest for the weary. In one final bleak note, the Reds have given up less than 4 runs just 4 times all of July. They'd better get wild (in a good way) in a hurry. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.
Help on the Way?
Two pieces of help for the Reds should be back on the field not too far into August. Ken Griffey ran the bases at 50% of Friday and then 70% on Sunday, according to the Dayton Daily News, which didn't reveal their scientific measuring gauge on just how much effort a player is putting into running. What's quantifiable, at least by me, is that he's due back today and won't be. When can we expect him back? I would think that the Reds will push him back very quickly, since he's hitting .343 with runners in scoring position this year and the Reds managed to leave 38 men on base in over this last 5-game road trip. No one is coming through in the clutch for Cincinnati and that stat says more about the Reds right now than anything. Look for Griffey maybe by the weekend or early next week.
What about Kearns? Austin hit off a tee this weekend and took dry swings as well and was scheduled for soft toss yesterday, although no word was given by any media, DDN or otherwise, as to what scientific percentage he was efforting in those swings. Austin had said earlier that he expected to make a minor league rehab stint before returning and considering the play of Wily Mo Pena recently, that's probably a good bet. I'd look for Kearns after Griffey, and he'll probably return no sooner than mid-August. He, unlike Griffey, has managed a trail-blazing .158 with runners in scoring position this season, although basically all his numbers in '04 have been altered due to the fact that he wasn't playing at 100% for nearly all of it. Don't get me started on how the Reds have handled that.
Who Would You Turn To? Jose Rijo?
A report of Jose Acevedo being removed from the rotation led Dave Miley to respond that JA wouldn't be given just one more start to prove his worth, but would continue to develop in the rotation at the major league level. Of course! Who would the Reds call on? There's only really one option at AAA in Seth Etherton, who's had only 18 career starts (11 of those were in '00) while being plagued by injuries in the minors his entire career. His numbers in '04 are very good, but is he a guy you wanna trust your Wild Card run to? I'll allow that JA has been horrible lately, but he did show flashes of success late last year and early this year, while always displaying the potential for success. Removing Acevedo would be ridiculous, not for reasons of performance, but for lack of options.
Wily Mo. . .and Mo. . .and Mo
What in the name of Dave Parker is goin' on? The Reds have had only two right fielders who have slugged .551 or better since Parker did it in 1985--Reggie Sanders in '95 (.579) and Jose Guillen last year (.629). Both of those guys are currently slamming bombs for other teams, while 22-year-old Wily Mo is hitting them over the fence once every 13 ABs. That, with regular play, would average out to 6th in the NL, behind names like Dunn, Beltre, Pujols, Thome, and Bonds. Yes, he has a 69% contact rate, but at 22, he can work on that. At 22, he can work on everything. If the Reds, having seen now what he can potentially do with full-time play, don't let him have the chance, they'll be making a big mistake. If they have to trade someone, I say again--as much as I like him--make it Kearns.
Ready to Overpay Again?
Should the Reds re-sign Paul Wilson? The Dayton Daily News suggested if the Reds don't use the money they have to be receiving due to the highest average attendance they've had in years (only 2000 and 1995 were higher in the last decade and only by a thousand), they should re-sign PW. He's currently payrolled at 3.5 mil and I say if he's signs for exactly that--and not a penny more--then, yeah. The DDN claimed he's earned it, which is wonderful, but his stats aren't as good as his work ethic. His strand rate is over 76%, which says he's had a bit of luck to his 3.71 ERA. His run support has been 6.1, which is well above the NL average of 4.6. Wilson is good, but that's it. He's not a #1, and the Reds have been overpaying players too much (see Griffey, Larkin). Don't add PW to it.
Odds and Ends
So much for a good roadie. The Reds are now 22-31 on the road, dropping 19 of their last 25 away from home. . .Check out my new baseball commentary site, Center Field (cf8.blogspot.com). There are also links to it at Red Letters (theredletters.blogspot.com). Check out the first article and be sure to chime in with your comments. It's geared to be an interactive site to talk baseball and have great discussion. Grab your glove and stop by Center Field. . .17 of the next 20 are against either the Cards or those in the midst of the Wild Card race along with the Reds. No rest for the weary. In one final bleak note, the Reds have given up less than 4 runs just 4 times all of July. They'd better get wild (in a good way) in a hurry. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.
Thursday, July 22, 2004
Center Field
Recently, I had to stop producing both Halo Daily and Reds Report due to lack of time to give daily updates now that I'm covering two teams for ESPN Fantasy Games. However, I now would like to announce the christening of yet another venture in the network here called Center Field. The schedule of production is still up in the air, but this will be a place that's more than just talk about the Reds and Angels. It's a place to come and talk all baseball. Occasionally (like when the outfielders gather in CF during a pitching change), the topics will veer to other issues, but you'll always be free to interact and respond to me and others at the site. Considering I'll be facilitating the site, I'm naming myself as the everday starting center fielder, but this outfield needs plenty of baseball fans to shag flies, talk shop, and raise the level of discussion.
Come on over to Center Field. Leave me a note. Let's starting honing our skills.
See you soon.
Come on over to Center Field. Leave me a note. Let's starting honing our skills.
See you soon.
Wednesday, July 21, 2004
No Excuses
As of July 20, the Reds, even without Griffey and Kearns, find themselves in 2nd, 9.5 games back of the Cards. That's right--ahead of the Cubs and Astros--two games back of the Wild Card. What this means is that ownership has no excuses to sell this July and we shouldn't be seeing a sequel to last year's Great American Flea Market. Will the Reds bolster the lineup? Doubtful. Who can they add? Kris Benson might be the only "big name" that may be in their price range, and it's doubtful they can get him. It's not for lack of money though. Reds attendance is up to over 30,000 per game this year, filling over 70% of the stadium. That ranks in the top dozen capacity percentage and is up from 29K last year (in a brand new park) and 23K from '01 and '02. Gotta be in for the long haul in '04. No excuses.
The Fastest Mouse in All of O-hi-o
Apologies to Coco Crisp, whose name sounds like a cartoon mouse, but Ryan Freel is still burning up the basepaths, with more SB than RBI and a higher OBP than SLG, and making a name for himself as the speediest guy in Buckeye baseball. He's stolen 18 bases this year as will probably lead off the rest of the season. He's still a cheap guy to get, owned in only 28% of mixed leagues, and he's now 5th in the NL in SB. He's also 4th in NL SB % per time on base at 21%. He's gonna run and he's gonna be on base, with a .408 OBP in June and a .415 clip in July. Although he's only walked once in July, his contact % is 88, so he's putting the ball in play regularly. His plate patience has really grown this year, and Freel would be an excellent pickup in all leagues.
Wily Mo Cerrano
Less than a month ago, I said Wily Mo deserved PT just as much as Austin Kearns did. If you happened to believe that and picked him up on the very day I wrote it, you would've been the beneficiary of 7 HR and 20 RBI. Wily Mo still has major trouble hitting the breaking ball, but he's slightly improving his plate patience in the last week or so and not literally swinging at every pitch thrown in his general direction. I maintain with the proper time to allow his skills to grow, he could be better than Austin Kearns and possibly creep into Adam Dunn territory. Two caveats for short-term performance--much of the league still hasn't faced him enough to begin to really exploit his weaknesses because he's never had regular PT. That leads to caveat #2. His current contact % is 69. Yikes.
Does Claussen Really Have Claws?
How's this for definitive? We'll see. He had a much better year in '02 with the NYY organization than last year with the Yankees/Reds. He's coming off Tommy John surgery, but his K/9 this season at AAA was back up around his pre-surgery range at 9.96. Wonderful, although he'll need to lower his 4.2 BB/9 a little to be consistently successful at the major league level. He looked solid today against the Crew, fanning 4 in 7 IP. He'll roll again Sunday against the Bucs and is certainly worth keeping an eye on. The extra time in Louisville may have really paid off as opposed to rushing him up after injury to see what he could do. Pittsburgh is hitting only .240 against LHP this year, so he wouldn't be a bad pickup for Sunday, should you need someone. Long term? Definite potential.
Red Cross Report
Griffey has been taking BP and is feeling much better, according to the team website. The Reds will wait for an official evaluation from the team doctor later this week to see what the prospects of him returning soon will be. Could be next week, could be next month. Kearns will begin swinging this weekend, but as I said earlier, the slower return curve for him should allow him to return 100% for the first time in over a year. With Dunn and Pena and eventually Griffey and Kearns all healthy, the Reds will once again face the prospects of having 4 guys for 3 spots. Last year, Jose Guillen was traded and netted the Reds Aaron Harang. This time? Maybe the Reds should float Kearns and see what they could get. Pena too. Getting more pitching is never a bad thing.
Complete Bull-oney
At a recent game, the Great American Ball Park scoreboard boasted that Reds' relievers led the NL with 20 victories and 35 saves. Ah, how raw numbers can be totally deceiving. The board failed to mention that the bullpen has blown an NL-leading 23 saves and have a save percentage of only 60, which is worse than everyone except SF and ARI. Paul Wilson would have 14 wins if the bullpen hadn't blown several of his leads. The relievers' ERA is 5.01, with a 1.62 K/BB. Comparatively, the starters aren't much better in ERA with a 4.94 count, but their K/BB is a very pleasing 2.17. The bullpen's HR/9 is 1.35, higher than the starter's 1.26, and that's with homer machine Jose Acevedo counting against the rotation. It's not a starter the Reds need. Shore up the pen, O'Brien.
Odds and Ends
Lidle's in the middle of a hot streak. Good add. I really don't think Wilson is going to fade, despite my continued statements to the contrary. Harang is looking better and better, but still doesn't economize his pitches. . .Two names I suggest the Reds target before the 31st--B.J. Ryan and Mike Gonzalez. They'd be perfect additions. Eddie Guardado, too, while we're at it. . .Reds' ERA is over a run worse on the road, but the Cubs are slumping and the Bucs team OPS is .737. Might turn out to be a good trip. . .Danny Graves got booed after blowing his 8th save against the Cards last week. I say it was a tough situation and Cedeno homered on a good pitch. He's still only walked 5 batters. Not beating himself. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.
The Fastest Mouse in All of O-hi-o
Apologies to Coco Crisp, whose name sounds like a cartoon mouse, but Ryan Freel is still burning up the basepaths, with more SB than RBI and a higher OBP than SLG, and making a name for himself as the speediest guy in Buckeye baseball. He's stolen 18 bases this year as will probably lead off the rest of the season. He's still a cheap guy to get, owned in only 28% of mixed leagues, and he's now 5th in the NL in SB. He's also 4th in NL SB % per time on base at 21%. He's gonna run and he's gonna be on base, with a .408 OBP in June and a .415 clip in July. Although he's only walked once in July, his contact % is 88, so he's putting the ball in play regularly. His plate patience has really grown this year, and Freel would be an excellent pickup in all leagues.
Wily Mo Cerrano
Less than a month ago, I said Wily Mo deserved PT just as much as Austin Kearns did. If you happened to believe that and picked him up on the very day I wrote it, you would've been the beneficiary of 7 HR and 20 RBI. Wily Mo still has major trouble hitting the breaking ball, but he's slightly improving his plate patience in the last week or so and not literally swinging at every pitch thrown in his general direction. I maintain with the proper time to allow his skills to grow, he could be better than Austin Kearns and possibly creep into Adam Dunn territory. Two caveats for short-term performance--much of the league still hasn't faced him enough to begin to really exploit his weaknesses because he's never had regular PT. That leads to caveat #2. His current contact % is 69. Yikes.
Does Claussen Really Have Claws?
How's this for definitive? We'll see. He had a much better year in '02 with the NYY organization than last year with the Yankees/Reds. He's coming off Tommy John surgery, but his K/9 this season at AAA was back up around his pre-surgery range at 9.96. Wonderful, although he'll need to lower his 4.2 BB/9 a little to be consistently successful at the major league level. He looked solid today against the Crew, fanning 4 in 7 IP. He'll roll again Sunday against the Bucs and is certainly worth keeping an eye on. The extra time in Louisville may have really paid off as opposed to rushing him up after injury to see what he could do. Pittsburgh is hitting only .240 against LHP this year, so he wouldn't be a bad pickup for Sunday, should you need someone. Long term? Definite potential.
Red Cross Report
Griffey has been taking BP and is feeling much better, according to the team website. The Reds will wait for an official evaluation from the team doctor later this week to see what the prospects of him returning soon will be. Could be next week, could be next month. Kearns will begin swinging this weekend, but as I said earlier, the slower return curve for him should allow him to return 100% for the first time in over a year. With Dunn and Pena and eventually Griffey and Kearns all healthy, the Reds will once again face the prospects of having 4 guys for 3 spots. Last year, Jose Guillen was traded and netted the Reds Aaron Harang. This time? Maybe the Reds should float Kearns and see what they could get. Pena too. Getting more pitching is never a bad thing.
Complete Bull-oney
At a recent game, the Great American Ball Park scoreboard boasted that Reds' relievers led the NL with 20 victories and 35 saves. Ah, how raw numbers can be totally deceiving. The board failed to mention that the bullpen has blown an NL-leading 23 saves and have a save percentage of only 60, which is worse than everyone except SF and ARI. Paul Wilson would have 14 wins if the bullpen hadn't blown several of his leads. The relievers' ERA is 5.01, with a 1.62 K/BB. Comparatively, the starters aren't much better in ERA with a 4.94 count, but their K/BB is a very pleasing 2.17. The bullpen's HR/9 is 1.35, higher than the starter's 1.26, and that's with homer machine Jose Acevedo counting against the rotation. It's not a starter the Reds need. Shore up the pen, O'Brien.
Odds and Ends
Lidle's in the middle of a hot streak. Good add. I really don't think Wilson is going to fade, despite my continued statements to the contrary. Harang is looking better and better, but still doesn't economize his pitches. . .Two names I suggest the Reds target before the 31st--B.J. Ryan and Mike Gonzalez. They'd be perfect additions. Eddie Guardado, too, while we're at it. . .Reds' ERA is over a run worse on the road, but the Cubs are slumping and the Bucs team OPS is .737. Might turn out to be a good trip. . .Danny Graves got booed after blowing his 8th save against the Cards last week. I say it was a tough situation and Cedeno homered on a good pitch. He's still only walked 5 batters. Not beating himself. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.
Tuesday, July 13, 2004
(Insert Your Own Exasperated Headline Here)/Pull-Holtz?
Here we go again. Just when you thought it was safe to get back in the water. Why me? Why us? What is the deal? Is the man made of glass? Whatever you want to say about Ken Griffey, to say he's had bad luck is an obvious waste of time and breath. During Saturday's affair with the Crew, Griff yet again found himself coming off the field after an injury and it looks like he'll be off the diamond for a while. The Dayton Daily News reports that the current outlook seems to be that he'll miss 2-4 weeks, and the Reds are leaning more toward the 4 number. Of course, it mainly depends how bad the tear is in that hamstring is. Right now? It could be as early as August 1 or as late as September 1. You've gotta feel for him. He is one of the greatest cases of tragic luck in sports.
Who'll Be the Green Kangaroo?
The one in the middle of Dunn and whoever plays RF will most likely be Ryan Freel on a daily basis now that Junior's out. That, of course, opens up an amalgam of Pena/Cruz/Vander Wal to play RF while Kearns also heals on the DL. Freel, due to the Reds bad fortune, continues to have the door opened for him for more PT. He most likely would've found his way into the lineup anyway with the way he's been hitting. He didn't make the trip to Milwaukee after sliding knee-first into the wall in right field in St. Louis trying to catch a foul ball. Word from the team's web site states that he's improving and will most likely be ready to go on Thursday. Back to Kearns--to make room for Vander Wal, he was transferred to the 60-day DL. He can be reactivated on August 1, but most likely won't be ready then.
The Mayor Will Be Back in Office
Sean Casey fully expects to be in the lineup Thursday and with Griffey now gone, they're gonna need him. Keep an eye on Casey's leg to see if he really is fully healthy. Most likely he will be, but as I wrote before, those owners who are risk adverse will probably want to deal him just in case. If you want fuel to your indecisive fire about trading Casey, he did hit .266 in June. His AVG, SLG, and OPS have declined each month from April to June, but then when you hit .414, slug .667, and have an OPS of 1.125 in April, there's a long way to fall before you're not really producing anymore. For those of you who like Sean, he's still walked more than he's fanned, and with the lowest G/F ratio of his career, it's a good bet that 25 HR as a career high won't stand past September.
Moments of Truth
The schedule was set up this year in a way that fans will most likely know by the end of this month whether or not the Reds will hang in the playoff chase, whether it be division or wild card, for the remainder of the season. Their first 17 games outta the break are against NL Central foes: 7 against St. Louis, 3 against Pittsburgh and Houston, and 2 against Chicago and Milwaukee. Tough stretch Griffey, but the time is upon the Reds to play or fade. Will they have any help from the front office? Don’t bet on it. GM Dan O'Brien is intent on rebuilding the minor league system and unless the deal is just too finger lickin' good, he'll pass. This isn't good in the short term, but you've gotta take your hits sometime. Let's all just hope O'Brien knows how to build the farm clubs.
Pull-Holtz?
I've held off on this as long as I could. The Reds have played the Cardinals 6 times in the last 3 1/2 weeks and I've watched just about every one on Fox Sports Net Ohio. I'm not sure how many of you are familiar with the TV crew who do the Cincinnati games for that affiliate, but George Grande and Chris Welsh are the commentators and are normally decent, I suppose. Bland and sometimes uninformed, they leave a lot to be desired, but I'm willing to forgive that because we all have different tastes. What I'm not willing to forgive is Grande's (and now Welsh's by cognitive association, I suppose) mispronunciation of Albert Pujol's name. It's NOT Pull-Holtz. It's POO-holes. Think elementary school and the kind you didn't like, okay, George?
I realize people have accents and different speech patterns, but that's not what this is. I say FLAH-rid-uh when referring to where the Marlins are from, and I thought that was the only word I knowingly mispronounced. It turns out that the dictionary identifies that as an acceptable pronunciation. So now, I can stand unashamed on my pedestal of perfect enunciation and tell George that he needs to do his job and learn how to say Albert's name. That's right, it's his job. He's getting paid rather handsomely to fill a position that many Reds fans (and other broadcasters) would absolutely love to have. I can deal with it when someone just isn't as good as Joe Buck, Mike Shannon, Harry Kalas, or Vin Scully, but when a broadcaster just isn't doing his homework, that's not okay with me. Active fans expect more.
QTR
Your Quarterly Ticker Reports for the Reds players are up at the Red Letters (theredletters.blogspot.com). Check it out if you own any Reds and see what you need to do when them down the fantasy stretch. In a new feature at RLS, I'll be awarding the Mr. Red Head to the Reds most productive fantasy player of the week, month, and year. I'll be looking back to the stats to award Mr. Reds for April, May, and June, but the weekly awards will just start this week. First one goes to Aaron Harang. His line last week: 1-0, 0.00 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, 10 K. Yeah, it was only one start, but it was a good one. . .I hope all of you really enjoy the All-Star Game. It really is one of the year's great sporting events. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.
Who'll Be the Green Kangaroo?
The one in the middle of Dunn and whoever plays RF will most likely be Ryan Freel on a daily basis now that Junior's out. That, of course, opens up an amalgam of Pena/Cruz/Vander Wal to play RF while Kearns also heals on the DL. Freel, due to the Reds bad fortune, continues to have the door opened for him for more PT. He most likely would've found his way into the lineup anyway with the way he's been hitting. He didn't make the trip to Milwaukee after sliding knee-first into the wall in right field in St. Louis trying to catch a foul ball. Word from the team's web site states that he's improving and will most likely be ready to go on Thursday. Back to Kearns--to make room for Vander Wal, he was transferred to the 60-day DL. He can be reactivated on August 1, but most likely won't be ready then.
The Mayor Will Be Back in Office
Sean Casey fully expects to be in the lineup Thursday and with Griffey now gone, they're gonna need him. Keep an eye on Casey's leg to see if he really is fully healthy. Most likely he will be, but as I wrote before, those owners who are risk adverse will probably want to deal him just in case. If you want fuel to your indecisive fire about trading Casey, he did hit .266 in June. His AVG, SLG, and OPS have declined each month from April to June, but then when you hit .414, slug .667, and have an OPS of 1.125 in April, there's a long way to fall before you're not really producing anymore. For those of you who like Sean, he's still walked more than he's fanned, and with the lowest G/F ratio of his career, it's a good bet that 25 HR as a career high won't stand past September.
Moments of Truth
The schedule was set up this year in a way that fans will most likely know by the end of this month whether or not the Reds will hang in the playoff chase, whether it be division or wild card, for the remainder of the season. Their first 17 games outta the break are against NL Central foes: 7 against St. Louis, 3 against Pittsburgh and Houston, and 2 against Chicago and Milwaukee. Tough stretch Griffey, but the time is upon the Reds to play or fade. Will they have any help from the front office? Don’t bet on it. GM Dan O'Brien is intent on rebuilding the minor league system and unless the deal is just too finger lickin' good, he'll pass. This isn't good in the short term, but you've gotta take your hits sometime. Let's all just hope O'Brien knows how to build the farm clubs.
Pull-Holtz?
I've held off on this as long as I could. The Reds have played the Cardinals 6 times in the last 3 1/2 weeks and I've watched just about every one on Fox Sports Net Ohio. I'm not sure how many of you are familiar with the TV crew who do the Cincinnati games for that affiliate, but George Grande and Chris Welsh are the commentators and are normally decent, I suppose. Bland and sometimes uninformed, they leave a lot to be desired, but I'm willing to forgive that because we all have different tastes. What I'm not willing to forgive is Grande's (and now Welsh's by cognitive association, I suppose) mispronunciation of Albert Pujol's name. It's NOT Pull-Holtz. It's POO-holes. Think elementary school and the kind you didn't like, okay, George?
I realize people have accents and different speech patterns, but that's not what this is. I say FLAH-rid-uh when referring to where the Marlins are from, and I thought that was the only word I knowingly mispronounced. It turns out that the dictionary identifies that as an acceptable pronunciation. So now, I can stand unashamed on my pedestal of perfect enunciation and tell George that he needs to do his job and learn how to say Albert's name. That's right, it's his job. He's getting paid rather handsomely to fill a position that many Reds fans (and other broadcasters) would absolutely love to have. I can deal with it when someone just isn't as good as Joe Buck, Mike Shannon, Harry Kalas, or Vin Scully, but when a broadcaster just isn't doing his homework, that's not okay with me. Active fans expect more.
QTR
Your Quarterly Ticker Reports for the Reds players are up at the Red Letters (theredletters.blogspot.com). Check it out if you own any Reds and see what you need to do when them down the fantasy stretch. In a new feature at RLS, I'll be awarding the Mr. Red Head to the Reds most productive fantasy player of the week, month, and year. I'll be looking back to the stats to award Mr. Reds for April, May, and June, but the weekly awards will just start this week. First one goes to Aaron Harang. His line last week: 1-0, 0.00 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, 10 K. Yeah, it was only one start, but it was a good one. . .I hope all of you really enjoy the All-Star Game. It really is one of the year's great sporting events. I'm Matt Allen, and this one belongs to the Red Letters.
Friday, July 09, 2004
Quarterly Ticker Report
We're halfway done. Teams can finally begin to justify the panic they feel in their Divisional Dungeons and set themselves up to make a run, give up, or for us fortunate enough to be in keepers, reload for next year. It may be almost mid-July, but there's still time to make a run with the right moves. There's not much time to keep saying "there's still time", but for now, you can.
What the Red Letters is going to do for you is take a brief look at those players that are being rostered by the fantasy GMs out there and devise a "market strategy" in a few words to fill you in on their value and how they can affect your team in the future. We've based those worthy of including on ESPN's ownership ratings for mixed and non-mixed leagues, and if a player is owned 50% or greater of either a mixed or NL league, then he'll be included in our report (All ownership percentages are as of 7/8). It's your RLS QTR (we like acronyms). Let's roll it.
The 100/100 Club: Fully owned in both mixed and NL leagues.
...Sean Casey: His .352 AVG will probably come back to earth a little. He's historically much better in the first half. He hits the hard enough to keep it well above .300 though...The power in the first half (15 HR) is for real. His G/F ratio is the lowest of his career by a landslide...If he's healthy, .320/30/100/100 will be on his 2005 baseball card for '04 stats...Adam Dunn: Contact percentage the lowest of his career. It's declined every season...50% of his career ABs feature one of three results--BB, K, HR. I can't decide what to make of that. Mucho bombs, high OBP, but plenty of whiffs in key situations. He can't be homering too much in the clutch with averages of 37 HR and only 85 RBI...Danny Graves: He's done well, but save opportunties are almost completely random. It could swing the other way...His K/9 is L-O-W for a closer (At 4.91, it's low for anyone really). He won't beat himself though, with only 5 BB. Great control. Is that enough? Might be a good sell...Ken Griffey, Jr.: His good average days are gone. Believe it. It'll probably get better than his current .252 though. I recently wrote that his power was waning--as it is--but considering where it used to be, it's still very good. Bet on 35 bombs as a floor...
The Rest of the Reds' Portfolio: Ownership listed as percentages (Mixed/NL)
...Jose Acevedo (4/64): Star in the making. 3.8 K/BB. Find that somewhere else on the waiver wire in mixed leagues...Only problem is his HR tendency. He's a flyball air-it-out type pitcher, so he'll most likely always be a little susceptible to that, but to this degree? Don't believe it...Ryan Freel 11/100: The NL owners have caught on. He's got speed, a developing eye, and a lot of heart, which can go a long way. His OBP and SB have risen every month this year (.408 OBP in June, 6 SB). He could be a solid player with his multi-position eligibility for several years with full time PT. Hitting .467 in July...Aaron Harang (0/36): Good control for a really young pitcher, perhaps too good. Needs to fool batters more before becoming consistently effective. Has got the stuff to do it...K/9 is 7, but BAA is .311...Definitely good for a spot start with favorable matchup...Biggest weakness is and has always been his stamina because of high early pitch counts...D'Angelo Jimenez (13/100): Expect AVG to rise in 2nd half. His plate disciple is too good for it not to...He's still developing and SB total will assuredly be the highest of his career in '04. Not blazing speed, but then there are very few of those guys...The dozen or so HRs he'll hit will mostly likely rise in subsequent years...Austin Kearns (18/96): Easily a 100/100 guy if he's healthy. He's due back in early August, supposedly at 100%. Remember that he's a little bit a slow healer, and the Reds have consistently pushed him out on the field at less than 100%...Good news--if he is fully recovered when he returns, he's a quick starter. He'll hit the ground running and the last five or six weeks could be a nice little jolt...Barry Larkin (2/100): At 40, expect more numerous days off, especially since he now plans to save some for next year...He's got no power left whatsoever. It seems very unlikely he'll get to 10 HR...Only way AVG doesn't go down is if he can keep slapping at pitches and taking them the other way. Expect a lot of singles and the occasional double down the line...Brandon Larson (0/64): Can't hit for AVG. Get used to it...I think I know why NL owners continue to roster him. Potential is a dangerous thing. He's got it. For fantasy, potential and performance are like salt and pepper though. He's 28 now, with an easily replaceable glove at 3B, and with only the occasional flash-in-the-pan power, I'd waive bye-bye quick...Jason LaRue (0/90): Was and always will be an AVG anchor. If an owner has to have some pop out of the C position, then he'll be decent help. I can't think of a reason to roster him for anyone not in that position...Cory Lidle (2/97): Not powerful (5.5 K/9), but has excellent control...Can have the occasional outstanding start, so not a bad call at all for a favorable spot start...Currently in the middle a fairly hot streak. Might be good to ride that out...Wily Mo Pena (0/97): Way too much of a free-swinger to be consistently productive. His troubles (and lack of improvement) against the breaking ball say that he's a difficult student for Chris Chambliss...Decent power and speed, but he won't develop with 2-3 starts a week. We'll probably never know how good he could've been with proper minor league development...Paul Wilson (66/100): I keep saying trade him, but the fact is he definitely won't hurt you, although his W/L total is deceiving...Doesn't fool hitters enough to be dominant, but hasn't had a horrendous start since 4/23. You could do a lot worse, especially in the NL...
That's a look at your QTR. Any further analysis needed should be addressed to theredletters@insightbb.com.
What the Red Letters is going to do for you is take a brief look at those players that are being rostered by the fantasy GMs out there and devise a "market strategy" in a few words to fill you in on their value and how they can affect your team in the future. We've based those worthy of including on ESPN's ownership ratings for mixed and non-mixed leagues, and if a player is owned 50% or greater of either a mixed or NL league, then he'll be included in our report (All ownership percentages are as of 7/8). It's your RLS QTR (we like acronyms). Let's roll it.
The 100/100 Club: Fully owned in both mixed and NL leagues.
...Sean Casey: His .352 AVG will probably come back to earth a little. He's historically much better in the first half. He hits the hard enough to keep it well above .300 though...The power in the first half (15 HR) is for real. His G/F ratio is the lowest of his career by a landslide...If he's healthy, .320/30/100/100 will be on his 2005 baseball card for '04 stats...Adam Dunn: Contact percentage the lowest of his career. It's declined every season...50% of his career ABs feature one of three results--BB, K, HR. I can't decide what to make of that. Mucho bombs, high OBP, but plenty of whiffs in key situations. He can't be homering too much in the clutch with averages of 37 HR and only 85 RBI...Danny Graves: He's done well, but save opportunties are almost completely random. It could swing the other way...His K/9 is L-O-W for a closer (At 4.91, it's low for anyone really). He won't beat himself though, with only 5 BB. Great control. Is that enough? Might be a good sell...Ken Griffey, Jr.: His good average days are gone. Believe it. It'll probably get better than his current .252 though. I recently wrote that his power was waning--as it is--but considering where it used to be, it's still very good. Bet on 35 bombs as a floor...
The Rest of the Reds' Portfolio: Ownership listed as percentages (Mixed/NL)
...Jose Acevedo (4/64): Star in the making. 3.8 K/BB. Find that somewhere else on the waiver wire in mixed leagues...Only problem is his HR tendency. He's a flyball air-it-out type pitcher, so he'll most likely always be a little susceptible to that, but to this degree? Don't believe it...Ryan Freel 11/100: The NL owners have caught on. He's got speed, a developing eye, and a lot of heart, which can go a long way. His OBP and SB have risen every month this year (.408 OBP in June, 6 SB). He could be a solid player with his multi-position eligibility for several years with full time PT. Hitting .467 in July...Aaron Harang (0/36): Good control for a really young pitcher, perhaps too good. Needs to fool batters more before becoming consistently effective. Has got the stuff to do it...K/9 is 7, but BAA is .311...Definitely good for a spot start with favorable matchup...Biggest weakness is and has always been his stamina because of high early pitch counts...D'Angelo Jimenez (13/100): Expect AVG to rise in 2nd half. His plate disciple is too good for it not to...He's still developing and SB total will assuredly be the highest of his career in '04. Not blazing speed, but then there are very few of those guys...The dozen or so HRs he'll hit will mostly likely rise in subsequent years...Austin Kearns (18/96): Easily a 100/100 guy if he's healthy. He's due back in early August, supposedly at 100%. Remember that he's a little bit a slow healer, and the Reds have consistently pushed him out on the field at less than 100%...Good news--if he is fully recovered when he returns, he's a quick starter. He'll hit the ground running and the last five or six weeks could be a nice little jolt...Barry Larkin (2/100): At 40, expect more numerous days off, especially since he now plans to save some for next year...He's got no power left whatsoever. It seems very unlikely he'll get to 10 HR...Only way AVG doesn't go down is if he can keep slapping at pitches and taking them the other way. Expect a lot of singles and the occasional double down the line...Brandon Larson (0/64): Can't hit for AVG. Get used to it...I think I know why NL owners continue to roster him. Potential is a dangerous thing. He's got it. For fantasy, potential and performance are like salt and pepper though. He's 28 now, with an easily replaceable glove at 3B, and with only the occasional flash-in-the-pan power, I'd waive bye-bye quick...Jason LaRue (0/90): Was and always will be an AVG anchor. If an owner has to have some pop out of the C position, then he'll be decent help. I can't think of a reason to roster him for anyone not in that position...Cory Lidle (2/97): Not powerful (5.5 K/9), but has excellent control...Can have the occasional outstanding start, so not a bad call at all for a favorable spot start...Currently in the middle a fairly hot streak. Might be good to ride that out...Wily Mo Pena (0/97): Way too much of a free-swinger to be consistently productive. His troubles (and lack of improvement) against the breaking ball say that he's a difficult student for Chris Chambliss...Decent power and speed, but he won't develop with 2-3 starts a week. We'll probably never know how good he could've been with proper minor league development...Paul Wilson (66/100): I keep saying trade him, but the fact is he definitely won't hurt you, although his W/L total is deceiving...Doesn't fool hitters enough to be dominant, but hasn't had a horrendous start since 4/23. You could do a lot worse, especially in the NL...
That's a look at your QTR. Any further analysis needed should be addressed to theredletters@insightbb.com.
Wednesday, July 07, 2004
Barry, Barry, Quite Contrary
The Reds had set aside October 2 as Barry Larkin Retirement Day, planning to honor the career-long Red with a pre-game ceremony to send him on his way to hanging up his uniform and preparing his Hall of Fame speech. Around 240 ABs later, hitting .290 with 31 RBI and 40 runs scored--not to mention his 12th All-Star selection--Barry has decided he may not want that fond farewell in October. That way he can't be Roger Clemens Part Deux. Now, Lark's played in 66 games in '04, but only started in 58 of them. That's already over 20 missed. With a SLG of .402 and an OPS of .746, he's clearly walking and slapping his way to a successful season. That's all well and good, but unless he's willing to play for $700K again, he will have to leave Cincy. Barry, we love ya, but the sunset's callin'.
81 Games In: Buy or Sell?
The All-Star Break is still in front of us, but the Reds are already halfway finished with their regular season. Now 7 games back of first after losing the first 2 of 3 to the Cards, is it time to write off the season to what everyone thought it would be--a 4th or 5th place finish in the Central? Well, the stretch ahead is very important, and the Reds could very well end up being sellers by the time the 31st rolls around, but remember that they're only 2 games back from the Wild Card. The problem? Several teams in the race with them--Chicago, Houston, Florida, and Los Angeles--all have better pitching and it doesn't appear as if the Reds have any intention to add an arm before the deadline (even if there was actually a quality arm available). Prognosis: cloudy. Dark clouds, though.
500...501's Next Right?
I'm not sure if it's because Griffey can't count beyond 500, but for some reason he's having trouble hitting 501. Why? Well, despite Griffey's impressive HR total this season, he's really not as powerful as he's making us all believe. What happened was--Griff got hot. In May, he hit 10 of his 19 bombs and slugged .620. That's pretty much been it. His other three months of slugging percentage? .407 (April), .477 (June) , .429 (July). Only one of those is above league average. Sure, he hit 6 homers in June, but you saw the slugging and the average was .239. Griffey has 6 hits thus far in July--all singles. Not exactly the slugger he seems to be. Without May, he's slugging .459. Johnny Damon's SLG is .457 (7 HR). Mark Loretta SLG: .463 (7 HR). Not exactly bashing company.
Holy Sanchez
Who is this Jesus Sanchez guy? Does his name give any indication that he could be the savior of this rotation, despite that it's pronounced differently? He had a good spring, but the short answer is 'no'. He was in the Colorado system last year and with the Iowa Cubs in '02, but in both of those seasons he showed simply a marginal propensity for striking batters out while displaying lackluster control. He's started and relieved and posted unimpressive stats in both roles. There's apparently been a little bad luck in his past, but nothing that overshadows the fact that this is not the guy to throw in the mix with the Reds trying to turn it around. Oh, yeah, he's 29. Van Poppel is a better option. Neither is a good fantasy option, so before you think about picking him up. . .don't.
"Ace"-vedo
I'm not gonna quit trumpeting this guy's potential. I understand he's 4-7 with a 5.20 ERA, but his K/BB ratio is 3.21. That's outstanding. For comparison, Matt Clement (2.83 ERA) ratio is 3.1. Mark Prior: 2.8. Roger Clemens (10-2): 2.5. Freddy Garcia: 2.9. Other than the HR problem (and that's a big one), Acevedo is zooming right along. How easy would it be to acquire a 4-7 pitcher with very little name recognition? Very easy. 5% owned in mixed leagues. Just 64% owned in NL leagues. He'll have the rough start now and again, and may just be good as a future pick for a struggling keeper team, but Jose Acevedo will be what his name implies. Print this off. Post it on your wall. And if you're doing that, you might as well pick him up in the meantime.
Big Matchup a-Brewin'
Two teams, both on the cusp of being right in the thick of the NL Central race. Two teams with a shortage of superstars--and super cash--that have prohibited them from competing for the postseason for years. Two teams that are both "overachieving", considering those factors and that they are a combined +9 in the Pythagorean standings which, for those of you who don't know, measures what a team's record "should" be according to their runs scored versus their runs allowed. They are #1 and #3 in the NL on the plus side, the Brewers run differential at 0 and the Reds at -46. The momentum of this series will carry one of these teams into the second half with a real chance at possibly winning the division (however unlikely). Who said a series in July couldn't be huge?
Quality Over Quantity
Sorry to say, but the Reds Report website is being discontinued for now. I just don't have the manpower (considering it's only me) to keep it updated when I have Anaheim correspondent duties as well. I will, however, focus on making the Red Letters site even better, with extra columns and analysis that will only appear there (think DVD special features). Sometimes everything that needs to be said can't be covered in seven blocks anyway. Coming soon at the Red Letters, I'm taking a look at mid-season report cards and seeing whether Reds that are being rostered by fantasy owners are making the grade. We'll see what to expect for the second half and beyond. Check that out at theredletters.blogspot.com. I'm Matt Allen and this one belongs to the Red Letters.
81 Games In: Buy or Sell?
The All-Star Break is still in front of us, but the Reds are already halfway finished with their regular season. Now 7 games back of first after losing the first 2 of 3 to the Cards, is it time to write off the season to what everyone thought it would be--a 4th or 5th place finish in the Central? Well, the stretch ahead is very important, and the Reds could very well end up being sellers by the time the 31st rolls around, but remember that they're only 2 games back from the Wild Card. The problem? Several teams in the race with them--Chicago, Houston, Florida, and Los Angeles--all have better pitching and it doesn't appear as if the Reds have any intention to add an arm before the deadline (even if there was actually a quality arm available). Prognosis: cloudy. Dark clouds, though.
500...501's Next Right?
I'm not sure if it's because Griffey can't count beyond 500, but for some reason he's having trouble hitting 501. Why? Well, despite Griffey's impressive HR total this season, he's really not as powerful as he's making us all believe. What happened was--Griff got hot. In May, he hit 10 of his 19 bombs and slugged .620. That's pretty much been it. His other three months of slugging percentage? .407 (April), .477 (June) , .429 (July). Only one of those is above league average. Sure, he hit 6 homers in June, but you saw the slugging and the average was .239. Griffey has 6 hits thus far in July--all singles. Not exactly the slugger he seems to be. Without May, he's slugging .459. Johnny Damon's SLG is .457 (7 HR). Mark Loretta SLG: .463 (7 HR). Not exactly bashing company.
Holy Sanchez
Who is this Jesus Sanchez guy? Does his name give any indication that he could be the savior of this rotation, despite that it's pronounced differently? He had a good spring, but the short answer is 'no'. He was in the Colorado system last year and with the Iowa Cubs in '02, but in both of those seasons he showed simply a marginal propensity for striking batters out while displaying lackluster control. He's started and relieved and posted unimpressive stats in both roles. There's apparently been a little bad luck in his past, but nothing that overshadows the fact that this is not the guy to throw in the mix with the Reds trying to turn it around. Oh, yeah, he's 29. Van Poppel is a better option. Neither is a good fantasy option, so before you think about picking him up. . .don't.
"Ace"-vedo
I'm not gonna quit trumpeting this guy's potential. I understand he's 4-7 with a 5.20 ERA, but his K/BB ratio is 3.21. That's outstanding. For comparison, Matt Clement (2.83 ERA) ratio is 3.1. Mark Prior: 2.8. Roger Clemens (10-2): 2.5. Freddy Garcia: 2.9. Other than the HR problem (and that's a big one), Acevedo is zooming right along. How easy would it be to acquire a 4-7 pitcher with very little name recognition? Very easy. 5% owned in mixed leagues. Just 64% owned in NL leagues. He'll have the rough start now and again, and may just be good as a future pick for a struggling keeper team, but Jose Acevedo will be what his name implies. Print this off. Post it on your wall. And if you're doing that, you might as well pick him up in the meantime.
Big Matchup a-Brewin'
Two teams, both on the cusp of being right in the thick of the NL Central race. Two teams with a shortage of superstars--and super cash--that have prohibited them from competing for the postseason for years. Two teams that are both "overachieving", considering those factors and that they are a combined +9 in the Pythagorean standings which, for those of you who don't know, measures what a team's record "should" be according to their runs scored versus their runs allowed. They are #1 and #3 in the NL on the plus side, the Brewers run differential at 0 and the Reds at -46. The momentum of this series will carry one of these teams into the second half with a real chance at possibly winning the division (however unlikely). Who said a series in July couldn't be huge?
Quality Over Quantity
Sorry to say, but the Reds Report website is being discontinued for now. I just don't have the manpower (considering it's only me) to keep it updated when I have Anaheim correspondent duties as well. I will, however, focus on making the Red Letters site even better, with extra columns and analysis that will only appear there (think DVD special features). Sometimes everything that needs to be said can't be covered in seven blocks anyway. Coming soon at the Red Letters, I'm taking a look at mid-season report cards and seeing whether Reds that are being rostered by fantasy owners are making the grade. We'll see what to expect for the second half and beyond. Check that out at theredletters.blogspot.com. I'm Matt Allen and this one belongs to the Red Letters.
